As can be seen from the Huawei incident, the destructive power of core technology being "strangled by the throat" is extremely huge. In the automotive industry, where digitization, interconnection, and intelligence are becoming increasingly mainstream, independent brands that rely heavily on foreign supplies for chip R&D and manufacturing may repeat Huawei's mistakes at any time. No matter how prosperous the market and auto shows are, this is the biggest crisis and dilemma for the Chinese auto industry.
Article/"Car Man" Lu Shan
On September 26, the Beijing Auto Show arrived as scheduled. In the face of the raging epidemic, the decoupling of China and the United States, and the turbulent global political and economic situation, as a window for China's opening up and innovation, this year's Beijing Auto Show is destined to be extraordinary.
Under the new economic model proposed by the government that focuses on "internal circulation", independent brands play a leading role in the auto show. Independent brands have made collective efforts to use innovative technologies and models to help themselves gain a foothold; the lack of innovation in traditional fuel vehicles has given new energy vehicles sufficient room for development. The new energy lineup, which has become larger and larger every time, has become a show for speculation and display about people, cars, and the future; the global auto market is in a downturn, and although the Chinese market is outstanding, it cannot conceal the crisis and pressure. The auto show has also become a venue for major auto companies The leader's podium on how to break the situation...
What did they say at this year's auto show?
“Everything is for consumers, everything is for consumers, and everything is respectful to consumers.” At the Hongqi booth, Xu Liuping, chairman and party secretary of China FAW, focused on users and not only personally introduced Hongqi’s upcoming The personal customization service launched in 2021 explains the first principles of the new era and new red flag with three "everything".
At the press conference, Hongqi’s first full-size flagship and smart pure electric SUV, Hongqi E-HS9, also officially started pre-sale, with a pre-sale price of 550,000-750,000 yuan. From 2017 to 2020, Hongqi's sales increased 42 times in four years, creating a new "flag trace" in the new era.
As for Dongfeng Group, this auto show brought 4 sets of passenger cars, driverless cars, and powertrains, as well as 2 complete vehicles, 1 platform and 1 platform of Lantu Motors newly released this year. 1 smart cockpit. Dongfeng Chairman and Party Secretary Zhu Yanfeng said: “These products illustrate Dongfeng’s understanding and thinking about future automobile life, and Dongfeng’s efforts to follow the trend and strive to advance in technology and market in a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. Combining the exploration and practice made in this regard, it explains Dongfeng’s responsibility and responsibility as an industry leader in striving to promote innovation-driven and independent development.”
Changan Automobile officially announced its positioning in “Future Technology Mass Production” at the Beijing Auto Show. UNI (Changan Gravity), the high-end passenger car product series of "Zhejiang Automotive Industry Corporation", will launch 5 models including 3 SUVs and 2 sedans within 5 years. In addition, the new brand design and high-end product series concept car VISION V will also be launched. Officially unveiled at this auto show.
“Technology Changan, a new and progressive company, a smart partner, come with a new lease of life!” Zhu Huarong, Chairman and Party Secretary of Changan Automobile, also emphasized to the outside world again: “Changan is undergoing its ‘third entrepreneurship’ and is committed to "Transformation of Smart Travel Technology Company", which once again adds value to the brand.
GAC, together with GAC Trumpchi and GAC New Energy, launched a comprehensive attack with a large independent lineup and launched the GAC Digital Accelerator GDA project, clarifying the three-year digital transformation goals and implementation path, and debuted the new GAC Trumpchi M8 and pure electric convertible concept sports car "Yingdong". GAC Trumpchi officially released GAC's new powertrain platform brand "Julang Power" technology brand, as well as powertrain products based on Julang Power; GAC New Energy released the world's first high-performance two-speed dual-motor "four-in-one" integration Electric drive.
Zeng Qinghong, Chairman and Party Secretary of GAC Group, emphasized: “Promoting digital transformation is an important driving force for traditional enterprises to achieve innovative development. We must seize strategic opportunities, strengthen synergy, and promote the digitalization of corporate strategies, product digital upgrades, and production Digitization of methods, digitization of business models, and digitization of enterprise management. "GAC Group is driven by digitalization to bring new improvements to consumers' mobile life quality, allowing consumers to experience the innovation of "products + services + experience."
With the theme of "Say No to the Impossible", Toyota not only brought a number of new models symbolizing the "New Four Modernizations", but also said, "China is the largest automobile market in the world and the only one we can The statement of "Dependent Market" once again conveyed the determination to firmly develop and be optimistic about the Chinese market.
"As a pioneer of future technology, China is in a leading position in many key areas. At the same time, we also realize that the Chinese market is crucial to us and regard it as a top priority." Audi Not only was the domestic version of e-tron launched at this auto show, but Markus Duesmann, chairman of Audi's board of directors, also emphasized the indispensable importance of the Chinese market.
Looking around the world, “outstanding” is the best and most accurate description of the current Chinese automobile market. However, compared to the singing and dancing at the auto show, Chinese automobiles, which are facing a century of changes, are even more challenged and difficult...
The similarities and differences in previous years this year
In this year’s new crown epidemic Affected by the epidemic, many international auto shows around the world have been postponed or even canceled, and the global auto market has also suffered an unprecedented hit. The successful convening of the Beijing Auto Show not only shows that China's epidemic prevention and control has achieved initial success, but also proves that China's auto market is rapidly recovering and rebounding.
Like previous years, this year’s Beijing Auto Show is still very popular. But compared with previous years, the Beijing Auto Show in the post-epidemic period also showed some differences.
First of all, new energy vehicles at this year’s Beijing Auto Show have changed from a supporting concept in the past to a mainstream trend. The rare 160 new energy vehicles made their debut, fully indicating the important position of new energy in the future strategies of car companies.
Secondly, Chinese brands have become the protagonist of topics and traffic at this auto show. Geely's "SEA Vast" intelligent evolutionary experience architecture and Chinese Express' new car with a price of up to 800,000 yuan captured all the attention on the eve of the auto show.
Furthermore, compared with the home battle of independent brands, despite the impact of the 14-day quarantine and the possibility of a second wave of epidemics, multinational car companies still cannot suppress their enthusiasm for this international A-level competition. Car show enthusiasm. As the largest single market for automobiles in the world, and also the market with the best control and fastest recovery from the COVID-19 epidemic, China is not only a gold nugget for them, but also a refuge.
Of course, there are enthusiasts, but there are also those who are absent. Niche ultra-luxury brands such as Ferrari; emerging brands with distinctive personalities such as Li Auto, a new power brand that has just been launched, and a series of small brands that are already on the verge of delisting... Each brand has its own merits whether it will come or not. reason. But these absent brands are enough to make people realize that the truth of the market lies outside the crowded auto shows, and the real competition and competition have just begun.
Can independent rise become responsible for sales?
At this year’s Beijing Auto Show, the number of new energy vehicles reached 160. This number increased by more than 20% compared with the 131 models at the 2019 Shanghai Auto Show. . According to the currently known information, independent car companies including FAW, GAC, SAIC Roewe, Geely Lynk & Co, Great Wall Euler and other brands will bring their own new new energy models. In addition, joint venture brands Volkswagen, Audi, BMW, Nissan and Honda have also launched new models.
Compared with previous years which were more conceptual and cost-effective, the new energy models brought by independent brands at this year’s Beijing Auto Show are more high-end and market-oriented. FAW Hongqi will officially launch its latest flagship SUV, Hongqi E-HS9, at the Beijing Auto Show. As one of the most core models at this Beijing Auto Show, E-HS9 has a luxurious design and powerful performance. The pre-sale price has also reached the current peak of independent brands - 550,000-750,000 yuan, breaking the independent price ceiling. It's already close at hand.
The Vision?V concept car, the second model of Changan Automobile UNI (Gravity), was officially unveiled at the auto show. The Vision?V concept car adopts Changan's latest "new technology smart aesthetics" design language, and its overall product positioning is higher than Changan UNI-T. In terms of appearance, it adopts a series of highly recognizable design elements such as borderless grille, aircraft imprint, V-shaped surface, super-continuous Mobius screen, Changan Blue, and intelligent AI. Through intelligent AI, it breaks the restrictions of the environment inside and outside the car and realizes multi-mode interaction. Under the concept of life-dynamic design, cars are the extension of human emotions and the externalization of the soul, while intelligent AI is the bridge between the physical dimension and the information dimension, and is a considerate and reliable partner for consumers.
GAC New Energy releases the world's first high-performance two-speed dual-motor "four-in-one" integrated electric drive, marking the entry of Aion Power Technology into the 3.0 stage, and will enable Chinese cars to accelerate from 0 to 100 kilometers in 2 seconds era.
Through the deep integration of dual motors + controller + two-speed reducer, it is upgraded again based on the "three-in-one" electric drive, bringing 340KW violent power performance and up to 90% comprehensive drive efficiency. While the power is increased by 13%, the volume is also reduced. It is 30% smaller and 25% lighter, and has technical advantages such as multiple drive modes and OTA intelligent evolution, and has obtained more than 70 patents.
BAIC Group’s high-end new energy brand ARCFOX’s first mass-produced model, ARCFOX αT, has announced the pre-sale price: 250,000 yuan to 330,000 yuan. This car is the world's first commercial car product equipped with 5G technology jointly built by BAIC Group, Magna and Huawei. It has a NEDC range of 653km, accelerates to 100 kilometers in just 4.6 seconds, and the overall advanced assisted driving level reaches L2 .5 level.
Another independent new energy model worthy of attention is the ZERO concept, the first pure electric concept model under Lynk & Co's SEA architecture. When Geely launched the "SEA vast" intelligent evolutionary experience architecture, the car has already made its debut and is scheduled to be mass-produced in the second half of 2021. The Lynk & Co ZERO concept will be equipped with the CO Pilot highly autonomous driving system and support 100% FOTA in all scenarios and cycles. The NEDC cruising range will exceed 700km, accelerate from 0 to 100km/h in 4 seconds, and will also be equipped with a 150- 200mm fully automatic air suspension. In terms of power performance and intelligence level, this concept car has reached the current global leading level.
In terms of joint venture brands, Volkswagen ID.4, domestic Audi e-tron and Q4?e-tron, Honda M-NV, BMW iX3 and other models all represent the latest developments of various multinational brands in the new energy field. Results. It is worth mentioning that after more than a year of being sold as an imported car, the Audi e-tron will officially launch its domestic version at this auto show.
As Audi’s first pure electric vehicle, e-tron has a brand-new Audi electric vehicle design and balanced strength. Previously, due to its status as an imported car, the price/performance ratio was not high, resulting in unsatisfactory sales. This domestic production will mark Audi's official entry into domestic new energy vehicles, and its pricing and future market performance are worthy of attention.
Behind the numbers is the global auto industry’s prediction of China’s auto market trends. In August this year, among new energy vehicles, China's single-month sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 100,000 units, a month-on-month increase of 13.0% and a year-on-year increase of 23.1%. Cumulative sales from January to August this year were 537,000 vehicles, a cumulative decrease of 27.1% year-on-year. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles were 461,000 and 466,000 respectively. After the epidemic is brought under control, the new energy vehicle market is rebounding rapidly.
The huge market space will trigger more and stronger competition, and the protagonist of this competition is likely to be played by independent brands. Among the 160 new energy vehicles at this auto show, independent brands contributed the vast majority. Official news shows that the number of independent new energy vehicles participating in the exhibition has reached 147.
It is foreseeable that new energy vehicles in 2021 will reach a new level, both in terms of technology and market size. With the collective efforts of China's mainstream independent brands, among these 147 models, there may be hot models that can challenge Tesla's status.
The booming auto show cannot hide the crisis of pressure
Under the influence of the epidemic this year, the global automobile industry has suffered heavy losses. However, with the different levels of epidemic control, the recovery situation of various markets has also widened the gap. In the global market, it is not an exaggeration to say that the Chinese automobile market is “outstanding”.
Data from the Passenger Car Association shows that in August this year, the retail sales of the passenger car market reached 1.703 million units, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year in August last year and a month-on-month increase of 6.5%, achieving the strongest performance since May 2018. positive growth. From January to August this year, the national passenger car market had a cumulative retail sales of 11.014 million units, a cumulative decrease of 15.2% year-on-year. This year’s cumulative sales dropped by 2 million units year-on-year, accounting for nearly 10 percentage points of last year’s total retail sales. But it is worth noting that car sales in the third quarter of this year from July to August were 250,000 more than the same period last year.
In addition, in August 2020, China’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,357.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, marking the first positive growth this year. Among them, retail sales of consumer goods other than automobiles were 3,015.8 billion yuan, down 0.6%.
This set of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics further proves that automobile consumption has made a huge contribution to the retail sales of social consumer goods, driving the recovery of the overall economy. In the automobile market, the sustained growth in sales has also made the market recover far beyond expectations.
However, in other markets around the world, although automakers in some European countries, the United States, Japan, and India have gradually resumed production as the epidemic is gradually under control, their auto market performance is still relatively weak.
In the first half of this year, Volkswagen’s sales in the United States fell by 22%, FCA fell by 26%, BMW Group fell by 29%, General Motors fell by 21%, Toyota fell by 22%, Honda fell by 24%, and Hyundai and Kia fell by 24%. 16%, Nissan fell 39%. In Europe, according to a report released by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA), new car sales in the EU in the first eight months of this year were 6.12 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 32%. Among them, Spain had the largest decline of 40.6%, followed by Italy and France, which fell by 38.9% and 32% respectively. Germany, Europe's largest economy, fell by 28.8%.
The increasingly recovering market sentiment has led to the prosperity of the Beijing Auto Show. However, under the appearance of prosperity, the ongoing global epidemic and the huge uncertainties caused by current political factors are also profoundly affecting the show. China's automobile market.
First, it is late September and early October. On the one hand, this is the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" of the traditional sales season. On the other hand, it is also the onset of the second wave of the epidemic that medical experts are worried about. It is not yet known whether the epidemic, which was only brought under control under high-pressure prevention and control measures in the first half of the year, will make a comeback. However, it is foreseeable that if the epidemic recurs, the liquidity of offline businesses will dry up again. Although there are relatively abundant prevention and control methods and online communication models, the automobile industry, which relies heavily on offline transactions, is still the biggest victim of the depletion of offline liquidity.
Second, as the largest personal consumption besides real estate, the automobile market is closely related to the national economy. The deteriorating Sino-US relations will severely damage China's export industry and bring about the bankruptcy of a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises that rely on exports, resulting in an increase in unemployment and a decrease in income. The internal circulation economic model still needs time to develop and explore. In the "hard days", automobile consumption will most likely become an abandoned option for consumers.
Third, as can be seen from the Huawei incident, the destructive power of core technology being "strangled by the throat" is huge. In the automotive industry, where digitization, interconnection, and intelligence are becoming increasingly mainstream, independent brands that rely heavily on foreign supplies for chip R&D and manufacturing may repeat Huawei's mistakes at any time. No matter how prosperous the market and auto shows are, this is the biggest crisis and dilemma for the Chinese auto industry.
Break market bottlenecks, break through industry difficulties, and stifle development crises. Only in this way can China's auto shows and auto industry be truly prosperous. (Text/"Autobot" Lu Shan, some pictures are from the Internet) Copyright Statement This article is an exclusive original manuscript of "Autobot", and the copyright belongs to "Autobot".
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.