"If the future market size does not reach 1000 billion, then there is almost no qualification to play." 20 17, in order to get tickets to enter the second half of the property market, dozens of small and medium-sized housing enterprises issued a military order of "100 billion goals". But for large housing enterprises, 1000 billion is only a watershed, and 300 billion or even 500 billion is the goal that enterprises need to develop by leaps and bounds.
Despite the pressure, there are still many housing enterprises that have accelerated into the 100 billion camp, while some housing enterprises have withdrawn from the echelon. According to the full-caliber sales report card of real estate enterprises released by Ke Rui in 2020, the scale of "100 billion camp" has expanded to 43. Three years later, it seems that "100 billion" is still a key word that housing enterprises cannot avoid or bypass.
10 enterprises squeezed into the "Billion Club" for the first time.
"Only when you have scale can you have the status of rivers and lakes and have the right to speak." The senior management of Xincheng Holdings has publicly stated that only by speeding up the running of housing enterprises can the "leftover be king" in the future market monopoly pattern. As an important threshold in scale expansion, "100 billion target" is no longer a new topic, and has been occupying the C position of year-end inventory data for years.
In the eyes of the industry, achieving the goal of 100 billion yuan is not only a necessary guarantee for the sustainable development of small and medium-sized housing enterprises in the future, but also one of the important foundations for them to obtain financing and participate in land resource competition.
In 20 17, Zhong Jun group changed the previous growth trend of "Buddhism" and put forward the goal of breaking through 100 billion in 2020 for the first time; Lin Longan, founder of Yuzhou Real Estate, put forward the goal of three-year sales exceeding 100 billion yuan; In the same year, Time Real Estate (now renamed "Time China") announced its interim results for the first time, saying that it would achieve19 or 2020 sales of 1000 billion.
Qiao Rong Group, a Fujian real estate enterprise that has always been known for its "steadiness", is not far behind. On the basis of contract sales of 56.2 billion yuan in 20 17, in June of 20 18, it was publicly stated that the enterprise had written "contract sales of 1000 billion yuan in 2020" into the company's strategic goal, which was the first time that Qiao Rong made public the target of 100 billion yuan.
How are the enterprises that set "small goals" now? With the announcement of sales performance in 2020, the progress is clear at a glance. It is understood that in 2020, Longguang Real Estate, Yuzhou Group, Zhong Jun Group, Xinli Real Estate, Times China and other 10 housing enterprises will break through the 100 billion mark for the first time.
Among them, Binjiang Group, Longguang Real Estate, Times China and other enterprises delayed entering the "100 billion camp".
However, some enterprises, such as Qiao Rong Group, Hechang Real Estate and Minmetals Real Estate, have not achieved their goals.
According to the data released by Ke Rui, in 2020, the full-caliber sales of Qiao Rong Group will be 85.90 billion yuan.
20 18 Hechang group, which proposed an impact of100 billion yuan, also failed to achieve the promised "small goal". The data shows that in 2020, the full-caliber sales of Hechang Group will only be 25 1. 1 100 million yuan, which is still far from the target of 100 billion yuan. "In the next 2-3 years, if the enterprise does not reach the scale of 100 billion, it is possible to go out, or it does not have much say in the industry." An industry insider who did not want to be named said.
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Some scale housing enterprises "carry forward with heavy load"
On the way to the scale of 100 billion, radical expansion inevitably brings pressure such as rising debt and enterprise management.
In 2020, the "Black Horse" Xinli Real Estate entered the "Billion Club" for the first time, and it was full of dangers and twists and turns on the road of 100 billion. In 20 15, the sales volume of Xinli Real Estate did not reach 5 billion yuan, but since then the sales scale has expanded rapidly, with a compound annual growth rate of 136% from 20 16 to 20 18.
In order to hit the scale of 100 billion yuan, in 2020, Xinli Real Estate increased its investment in the Yangtze River Delta and Greater Bay Area, and sold 22 high-quality plots in the first half of the year. All the way to expansion, Xinli Real Estate has exceeded the target set at the beginning of the year. According to Kerui data, in 2020, the full-caliber sales of119.64 billion yuan will be realized.
Aggressive expansion has brought great pressure on its debt. According to the previously submitted prospectus, from 20 16 to 20 18, the net capital debt ratio of Xinli Holdings was 1.9 times, 2.7 times and 2.4 times respectively. At the beginning of 20 19, its net debt ratio was as high as 3 10%.
Similar to Xinli Real Estate, New Hope Real Estate, which was once low-key, entered the camp of 100 billion housing enterprises with high profile in 2020, but it still cannot escape the multiple pressures of debt and management. Previously, Liu Yonghao, the chairman of New Hope Group, said that he did not have much ambition for real estate, and the sales in 20 13 years were only1900 million yuan.
However, in 20 14, its leadership changed and its layout was adjusted, and it began to expand rapidly, and it also spent a lot of money on the land market. From 20 15 to 20 19, the full-caliber sales of new hope real estate increased rapidly from less than10 billion yuan to 73.59 billion yuan; Its land acquisition amount also increased from17.8 billion yuan in 20 17 years to 3 19 billion yuan in 20 19 years. In 20 19, the short-term loans of New Hope increased by 307.32% year-on-year, and the total liabilities increased by 53.62% year-on-year, reaching 83.868 billion yuan. In the first half of 2020, its short-term loans continued to climb to 600 million yuan and its total liabilities increased to 96.628 billion yuan.
Looking at the housing enterprises that put forward the goal of 100 billion yuan in previous years, more than 30% are "Fujian" housing enterprises. As one of the real estate enterprises in Fujian, Zhong Jun Group's reserves have expanded rapidly in recent years, and its scale has grown rapidly. The goal of 1000 billion has also been achieved on time. In 20 17, Huang Chaoyang, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Zhong Jun Group, put forward the goal of "50 billion in 20 18, 80 billion in 20 19, and exceeding 1000 billion in 2020".
The soldiers and horses did not move, and the food and grass went first. Zhong Jun chose to actively participate in the land market. The data show that the soil storage scale reached 32.09 million square meters at the end of 20 19, twice as much as at the end of 20 16. After large-scale storage expansion, Zhong Jun achieved sales growth.
The scale expansion corresponding to 1000 billion is the growth of high debt. At this time, Zhong Jun was not spared. According to the data of the mid-year report in 2020, the total liabilities of Zhong Jun Group reached 13 15 10 billion yuan, and the net debt ratio also increased by 8.3 percentage points from the end of last year to 68.3%. Excluding the advance payment, its asset-liability ratio still exceeds 70%, and it has stepped on one of the "three red lines".
Fight for comprehensive strength after "crossing the line"
The Central Reference Institute pointed out that 1000 billion yuan has gradually become a watershed for housing enterprises. Judging from the current industry pattern, the improvement of concentration has become inevitable. How to maintain stability in operation and seek opportunities in greater challenges in the future will be an important proposition that housing enterprises need to consider.
For small and medium-sized housing enterprises, scale is survival. "In the competitive background of the strong and strong, if there is no scale advantage, housing enterprises will be greatly restricted in financing, land acquisition and sales." Guo Yi, chief analyst of Heshuo, said that crossing the threshold of 100 billion not only means the increase of the total scale, but also effectively balances the related costs of development, manpower, marketing and finance. "With the overweight of regulatory policies in first-and second-tier cities, shed reform and capital dividends in third-and fourth-tier cities have gradually subsided. In the face of an increasingly cruel market, the efforts of small and medium-sized housing enterprises to hit the scale of 100 billion will increase several times. " Guo Yi emphasized that if small and medium-sized housing enterprises can't break through the threshold of 100 billion yuan in the future, they may face the dilemma of "if they don't advance, they will retreat".
"In the first year or two of the sprint 1000 billion, housing enterprises will generally implement rapid expansion to promote scale. After reaching a higher scale, they will begin to seek a more stable growth mode to maintain their position in the industry. " An analyst who did not want to be named said.
2020 may be a new turning point for the head housing enterprises that stand firm in the "100 billion camp". Affected by last year's epidemic, head enterprises generally slowed down and set targets more cautiously than in previous years. "Considering the impact of the epidemic, Xincheng has set the sales target of 250 billion yuan in 2020, which is 7.7% lower than the sales of 270.8 billion yuan last year." Wang Xiaosong, chairman of Xincheng Holdings, said.
Mingyuan Real Estate Research Institute believes that enterprises entering the threshold of 100 billion yuan have relatively mature strategic depth. As long as the urban layout is well balanced in structure, they can achieve rapid growth without taking great risks. "But in order to achieve the goal of 200 billion, 300 billion or even longer, we need to seek new profit growth points as soon as possible and become bigger and stronger quickly." Mingyuan Real Estate said that the current market environment is not what it used to be, and it is not easy for enterprises to achieve scale growth. Housing enterprises need to carry out accurate strategic layout according to their own reality.
Faced with the increasingly harsh living environment, many housing enterprises have opened up new battlefields while fighting for scale. Featured towns, urban renewal, * * * enjoying office ... Many opportunities in the market also allow housing enterprises to see the possibility of overtaking in corners. "It is not impossible to overtake in a corner, but it is a small probability event." An industry insider who did not want to be named bluntly said that if there is not enough financial support, or high turnover and quick return cannot be achieved, it is difficult for housing enterprises to overtake in corners. Enterprises should establish their own brand characteristics, survive with characteristics, and do fine work, that is, create value for specific target customers. (Source: Beijing Evening News)