First of all, there is a conceptual mistake: there are broad and narrow definitions of coal chemical industry. Coal chemical industry in a broad sense mainly includes coal coking, coal liquefaction, acetylene chemical industry by calcium carbide method and chemical product production based on coal gasification. The production of chemical products based on coal gasification technology is the so-called narrow coal chemical industry. Its main products include: synthetic ammonia, methanol, acetic acid, formaldehyde and other chemical products, plus hundreds of derivatives, which occupy an important position in the chemical industry. Therefore, it is obviously biased that the coal chemical industry is arbitrarily restricted and blindly restricted.
-At present, the overheated subsidiaries of coal chemical industry are mainly in the field of methanol and dimethyl ether from coal. If all the coal-to-methanol (dimethyl ether) projects planned in China are put into production at present, there will be obvious oversupply. However, in the previous investigation, we also noticed that the purpose of most coal-to-methanol (dimethyl ether) plans is only an excuse for local enterprises to control coal resources, and not so many have really started to be implemented. Therefore, there may be a surplus of methanol (dimethyl ether) from coal, but it is not as serious as statistics show.
-In the fields of coal-to-oil and coal-to-olefin production, because the domestic industrialization technology is not yet mature, it is still mainly a vision. This is one of the ultimate development directions of coal chemical industry, but it is not suitable as a reason for investment because of the immature industrialization technology and high risk.
● The coal-to-oil projects that have already started should not be restricted.
admiralty
Recently, the Beijing News reported that China will stop the coal chemical and grain ethanol fuel projects under construction. Report on stopping coal chemical projects under construction;
-The reporter misinterpreted and amplified the remarks of government officials. Judging from the judgment, government officials may mean that new coal-to-oil projects will not be approved before the demonstration plants such as Shenhua are put into production smoothly.
-According to the guiding ideology of the Medium-and Long-term Development Plan of Coal Chemical Industry issued by the Industry Department of the National Development and Reform Commission on June 5438+ 10 last year (draft for comments, the official draft has not yet been released because some details are still controversial), coal-to-oil is an important measure to ensure national oil security. During the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, we should do a good job in technology research and development, engineering amplification and industrialization demonstration, and focus on the construction of the Ordos 1 10,000-ton direct liquefaction project of Shenhua Group. 6,543,800 tons indirect liquefaction demonstration project of Yankuang Group; Shanxi Luan Group (Luan Huaneng Group) and Inner Mongolia Yitai (Yitai B Holdings) each produce 6,543,800 tons of indirect liquefied oil production projects. These four projects were approved by the state at that time, and construction has started, so it is impossible for the state to ask for suspension.
-Other coal chemical projects, including methanol and dimethyl ether. The state is formulating standards for methanol gasoline and related substitutes, which are expected to be introduced in the second half of this year, and the industry policy has not changed compared with last year.
-As coal chemical projects are high resource consumption projects, the state will be more cautious in approving new projects in the future, but from the perspective of national energy security strategy, the state should develop to a certain scale to master technology and reduce import dependence.
● High oil prices push coal chemical industry into a new development stage.
Tianxiang investor Huawei Liang Mingchao
"Lack of oil, gas and coal" is the basic structure of fossil energy in China. The proven crude oil reserves in China are only 1.34% of the global proven crude oil reserves. According to the crude oil output of China in 20051.800 million tons, the existing crude oil reserves can only be mined 12 years. Comparatively speaking, China's coal resources can be mined for more than 50 years, and giving full play to the advantages of China's coal resources is the first choice to realize energy diversification in line with China's national conditions.
The Eleventh Five-Year Plan clearly points out that it is necessary to develop coal chemical industry, develop coal-based liquid fuel, promote the construction of coal liquefaction demonstration projects in an orderly manner, promote the deep processing and transformation of coal, and develop large-scale coal chemical complete sets of equipment, coal liquefaction, coal to olefins and other equipment. Relevant provinces have made coal chemical industry the key development direction in the 11th Five-Year Plan. This will push coal chemical industry into a new stage of standardized development.
The development of coal and coal chemical industry is technically divided into four development routes, namely, the coking route of coal, the gasification route of coal, the liquefaction route of coal and the route of producing calcium carbide and acetylene from coal.
Deep processing of coal tar
There are more than 200 products of tar deep processing industrialization, many of which are irreplaceable. In recent years, driven by the development of domestic steel and other industries, the domestic coke industry has developed rapidly and its output has been increasing. The output of coke increased from1.200 million tons in 2006 to 232 million tons in 2005, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.7%. It is predicted that the annual growth rate will still be close to 5% in the next few years. Coal tar is a by-product of coke production. With the increase of coke output, the output of coal tar also increases rapidly.
According to incomplete statistics, there are currently 43 large and medium-sized coal tar processing enterprises in China with a processing capacity of 5.33 million tons/year, including 25 enterprises with a processing capacity of 654.38+10,000 tons/year, with a total processing capacity of 4.55 million tons. At present, the processing capacity of coal tar under construction in China is 4.25 million tons, and it is planned to be 3.77 million tons. In the next few years, the domestic coal tar processing capacity will probably reach130,000 tons/year.
Compared with foreign tar processing enterprises, there is a big gap in China's tar processing industry. China's tar processing enterprises are scattered and the production scale is small. The capacity of a single production unit of tar processing enterprises abroad is at least 200,000 tons/year, while that of domestic tar processing enterprises is generally below 654.38+10,000 tons/year. In addition, because the processing depth of coal tar processing enterprises in China is generally very low, less than 50% of coal tar processing enterprises with the scale of 65438+100000 tons/year carry out secondary processing, and there are only about 40 kinds of products, while foreign companies use coal tar to process more than 40 kinds of products.
China's coal tar deep processing industry is facing industrial upgrading, and the development trend is centralization, scale and refinement. Most small and medium coal tar processing enterprises will be eliminated by industrial upgrading. According to the national industrial policy, the capacity of a single tar processing device is required to be above 654.38+10,000 tons/year, which requires that the raw material supply place should have at least 2 million tons/year coke processing capacity. Therefore, building factories in raw material producing areas or developing powerful coking enterprises in the direction of deep processing of coal tar is most in line with the development direction of domestic industry and encouraged by the state. In addition, some foreign high-tech enterprises intend to enter the coal tar industry in China. According to relevant data, Japan JFE Company and America Corpus Company will invest 300,000 tons/year coal tar processing project in Tangshan.
Coal to syngas pipeline
(1) methanol
The traditional synthesis gas line of China coal chemical industry mainly produces nitrogen fertilizer and some organic chemical products downstream of methanol through synthesis gas. With the soaring price of crude oil, methanol and dimethyl ether, the downstream products of coal chemical industry, are becoming more and more important as the first alternative fuel. At the same time, with the continuous expansion of the downstream products of methanol, the market demand for methanol has increased sharply. At present, methanol to alcohol ether fuel and methanol to olefin (instead of petrochemical line) have become the main development routes in the new stage of coal chemical industry development.
Driven by downstream demand, domestic methanol consumption increased from 65,438+2,665,438+4,000 tons in199 to 6,662,000 tons in 2005, and maintained a growth rate of more than 10%.
At present, the scale of methanol production enterprises in China is mainly 500,000-200,000 tons/year, and there are few methanol projects above 300,000 tons/year, but many methanol projects under construction are above 500,000 tons/year. The capacity of foreign methanol plants is generally 500,000 ~ 800,000 tons/year, and the super-large methanol plants have reached 654.38+0.5 ~ 654.38+0.8 million tons, with advanced technology and low energy consumption. They are all built near the origin of raw material resources, and about 80% are natural gas.
At present, the methanol investment is in a frenzy, and the overall scale of the intentional project has reached more than 20 million tons, but the scale of real meaningful progress under construction is about 5 million tons. The construction period of large-scale methanol projects is generally 3 years. It is estimated that the domestic methanol production capacity will reach130,000 tons in the next two years.
(2) Dimethyl ether
Dimethyl ether is an important ultra-clean energy and environment-friendly product, which is called "2 1 century fuel".
As a secondary energy source, the production cost of dimethyl ether mainly depends on the production cost of methanol in addition to factors such as technology and scale. At present, dimethyl ether is basically produced by two-step method in China, and the scale of most new projects is 654.38+10,000 to 200,000 tons/year.
The large-scale application of dimethyl ether is mainly to replace automobile diesel and civil liquefied petroleum gas, which is a huge potential market.
Because of the broad market potential of dimethyl ether, many powerful domestic companies are optimistic and plan to launch dimethyl ether projects. Except for Lutianhua, which uses natural gas as raw material, all others use coal as raw material. Shandong Yanzhou, Shaanxi Shenfu, Shaanxi Weihe, Hebei Xingtai, Xinjiang Daqing and other places also have the intention to build large-scale methanol/dimethyl ether projects.
Direct coal liquefaction
The scientific name of coal liquefaction technology is coal-based liquid fuel synthesis technology, which is divided into direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction. Direct liquefaction is to directly convert the organic matter in coal into liquid fuel by hydrogenation at high temperature and high pressure, and then further refine it into fuel oil such as gasoline and diesel.
At present, there are more than 10 processes developed in the world, among which the Igor process in Germany, the Nedor process in Japan and the HTI process in the United States are more representative. Among the three processes, IGOR process in Germany is mature and reliable, and the conversion rate can reach 97%.
In 200 1 year, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Chinese Academy of Sciences jointly launched the "coal-to-oil" project, and it is planned to build bases in Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Yunnan within five years to 10.
According to relevant data, at present, there are only two coal-to-oil projects approved to start in China, one is Shenhua Group's coal-to-oil project and the other is Ning Mei Group's coal-to-oil project.
In August, 2004, Shenhua Group built an industrial plant for direct coal liquefaction in Erdos, Inner Mongolia, with a total construction scale of 5 million tons/year of oil products. The first-phase construction scale is 3.2 million tons/year of oil products (including 500,000 tons of gasoline, 26.5438+500,000 tons of diesel, 3.65438+0.000 million tons of liquefied gas, 240,000 tons of benzene and mixed xylene, etc.). ), with a total investment of 24.5 billion yuan and an annual coal consumption of 90,000 yuan. The first phase of the project has three production lines, of which 1 was completed in July 2007. After the normal operation, 20 10 was completed and put into operation. Recently, Shell wants to join hands with Shenhua to enter the field of coal-to-oil in China.
Direct coal liquefaction project is a capital-intensive and technology-intensive project with huge investment, and there are controllable and uncontrollable risks such as falling oil prices, coal shortage, waste of resources and environmental degradation. There is great social controversy and the prospect of direct coal liquefaction (coal-to-oil) line is full of variables.
Production line of calcium carbide from coal
This line uses coal as raw material to produce calcium carbide, which reacts with water to produce acetylene, and then uses acetylene to produce downstream products. The main downstream products in China are the production of vinyl chloride monomer, and then the production of polyvinyl chloride.
In recent years, China's calcium carbide production capacity has increased by 4%, ranking first in the world. With the high price of domestic PVC and the high international oil price, the profit margin of PVC production by calcium carbide method has increased, which has driven the demand for calcium carbide raw materials to heat up rapidly.
However, calcium carbide production is an industry with high energy consumption and high pollution. In 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission put forward "Suggestions on Strengthening the Management and Rectification of PVC Projects with High Energy Consumption and High Pollution according to Law", proposing that the industry should be rectified in strict accordance with national laws and regulations, so as to promote the healthy development of the industry and make a breakthrough in replacing PVC with calcium carbide method by ethylene oxychlorination method. At the same time, seven ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, jointly issued the Notice on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of Calcium Carbide Industry, which requires: completely shut down calcium carbide furnaces that are eliminated 1 10,000 tons/year, and open calcium carbide furnaces and calcium carbide furnaces with substandard emissions; Strictly control new calcium carbide projects, and prohibit new calcium carbide production projects in the eastern coastal areas.
How to solve the contradiction between high energy consumption, high pollution and development is an urgent problem in front of calcium carbide industry in coal chemical industry.
Scale and circular economy are the main ways to develop coal chemical industry.
Coal chemical industry is an industry with relatively large fixed investment, and its scale benefit is very significant. Compared with the same industry abroad, China's coal chemical industry is small in overall scale and low in concentration. At the same time, coal chemical industry is also an industry with large resource consumption and relatively serious pollution. To reduce pollution emissions and improve the comprehensive utilization rate of resources, we must take the road of circular economy and combine scale with circular economy. For example, the coking industry in China can carry out tar deep processing and recycle coke oven gas to produce nitrogen fertilizer or methanol if the scale is sufficient; Coal to methanol can recover tar and sulfur at the same time; Methanol can be co-produced in the process of producing nitrogen fertilizer; Power generation by waste heat from production, recycling of circulating water and centralized treatment of three wastes all need to be implemented to a certain scale to produce economic benefits.
● Comments on major companies
Wei Yun Co., Ltd. (600725) issued additional shares to expand coal chemical industry.
Guodu Securities He Wei
The company's main business is the production and sales of soda ash, fertilizer, polyvinyl alcohol and vinyl acetate. Its production capacity is 200,000 tons of soda ash, 200,000 tons of ammonium chloride, 25,000 tons of polyvinyl alcohol and 30,000 tons of vinyl acetate.
The company plans to issue no more than 654.38+0.65 million shares in a non-public manner, which are used to acquire 54.8% of the shares held by Wei Yun Group, 30.30% of the shares held by Wei Yun Group and 606. 1% of the shares held by Yunmei Chemical Industry Group (90.9 1% in total). The company expects that two assets will be merged into the company on June 65438+1 October1day, 2007. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 2007 is about 65.438+60 billion yuan, and the fully diluted earnings per share is about 0.48 yuan (calculated by 330 million shares).
The injection of new assets makes the company's business cover three sub-industries: coal-fired power chemical industry, gas chemical industry and coal coke chemical industry.
After the completion of this private placement, the company will indirectly have the deep processing capacity of 3.05 million tons of coke, 300,000 tons of methanol and 300,000 tons of coal tar through coking and coking. These production capacity will gradually reach production in the next two years, when the company's performance will explode.
In 2006, the company realized the main business income of 879.23 million yuan. After the acquisition, the company expects to realize the main business income of more than 2.5 billion yuan in 2007, and will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 50% from 2008 to 2009, thus realizing the rapid expansion and expansion of the company in the coal chemical industry.
It is preliminarily estimated that the company will realize earnings per share of 0.483 yuan, 1. 165 yuan and 1.646 yuan respectively in the next three years (based on the total share capital after the private placement), and the compound growth rate of net profit in the next three years will be as high as 104%.
Hubei Yihua (000422) combines coal chemical industry, phosphorus chemical industry and salt chemical industry.
Guo Jin Securities Cai Murong
The company is a combination of coal chemical industry, phosphorus chemical industry and salt chemical industry.
Coal chemical industry: The production and sales volume of urea products of the company keeps increasing: in 2006, the company's urea output was 829,200 tons (including Yihua in Guizhou), and it is estimated that the company's urea output from 2007 to 2009 will be 920,000 tons, 6,543.8+0,000 tons and 6,543.8+0,500 tons respectively. The advantage of the company in developing coal chemical industry lies in adopting independent coal gasification technology and replacing lump coal raw materials with cheap pulverized coal.
The newly-built phosphate fertilizer production capacity is expected to be gradually released: in June 2006, 5438+ 10, the company's newly-built 840,000-ton phosphate compound fertilizer project was completed and put into operation. It is estimated that the output of diammonium phosphate in 2007-2009 will be 500,000 tons, 600,000 tons and 700,000 tons respectively. The advantage of the company's development of phosphorus chemical industry is that it has obtained the support of the provincial government in Hubei and can obtain sufficient phosphate rock resources.
Salt chemical industry-new capacity is the future growth point. The production capacity of chlor-alkali and soda ash will be put into production in the second half of the year: in June 2007, the company will add 654.38 million tons of PVC and 50,000 tons of caustic soda, and the supporting 200,000 tons of calcium carbide project will be completed and put into production; In addition, another salt chemical project of the company-600,000 tons of combined alkali will be completed and put into operation on June 5438+ 10, 2007. The new project capacity will contribute to the company's performance growth in 2008.
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2007 to 2009 will be 297.7 million yuan, 39 1.0 million yuan and 403.9 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 38.4%, 3 1.4%% and 3.3% respectively, and earnings per share will be 0.549 yuan and 0.72 1 respectively.
Kailuan shares (600997) Coal Chemical Industry will drive the performance to increase greatly in the next three years.
Xiao hanping
This company is a coal mining company mainly engaged in coal business. In recent years, the company has entered the coking industry through strategic transformation. The main coking projects include: Qian 'an Zhonghua Coal Chemical Co., Ltd., Tangshan Zhongrun Coal Chemical Co., Ltd. and Tangshan Cobos Kailuan Carbon Chemical Co., Ltd. 300,000 tons/year coal tar processing projects.
The company has formed a relatively complete industrial chain structure with upstream and downstream businesses such as coal mining, washing, coking and coal chemical industry, and built a circular link platform between energy and chemical industry with the completion and commissioning of coking, methanol and tar projects as an opportunity.
After the investment in previous years, the coke production capacity reached 3.3 million tons in 2007, and the coke scale of the company will reach 4.4 million tons/year in the next two years. At present, the company is actively expanding its coal chemical business. In the future, 250,000 tons of coke oven gas methanol production capacity and 300,000 tons/year coal tar deep processing project will be formed. It is predicted that coal chemical industry will become the main growth point of the company's profits in the next three years. In 2006, the company's earnings per share was 0.8 1 yuan, in 2007 it was 1.08 yuan, in 2008 it was 1.26 yuan, and in 2009 it was 1.58 yuan. The company's performance will maintain a high-speed growth trend in the next three years.
The company's coke output has increased rapidly. However, because the industry is in the process of economic recovery, coking business has made little contribution to the company's performance in 2006. However, the increase of coal output and the proportion of clean coal, as well as the price increase, supported the steady growth of the company's performance in 2006.
Liu Hua Co., Ltd. (600423) is the leader in coal chemical industry, with obvious competitive advantage.
Jing Wong, orient securities.
In 2006, Liu Hua Co., Ltd. realized its main business income of 654.38+0 billion and its net profit of 654.38+0.2 billion, up by 6543.8+0.3% and 27.3% respectively. The company realized earnings per share of 0.63 yuan, return on net assets of 654.38+04.2% and net assets per share of 4.44 yuan.
The company's financial situation is normal, and the increase in the prices of some products and the decrease in related transactions are the main reasons for the increase in the company's gross profit margin. The long-term stable operation of Shell pulverized coal gasification project is still the focus of the company in 2007, and it will also be the embodiment of the company's core competitiveness and the source of future performance growth.
The energy distribution pattern of "rich in coal, poor in oil and less in gas" in China determines the huge development space of coal chemical industry in the future. Companies with advanced clean coal gasification core technology will undoubtedly have outstanding advantages in cost and environmental protection, and will usher in a new round of growth peak.
Relying on Shell pulverized coal gasification, Liu Hua Company's leading position in southwest coal chemical industry has been further established. Because there are few chemical enterprises in Southwest China, but the market demand is growing rapidly, the geographical advantage of Liu Hua shares is self-evident.
Liu Hua's performance has increased steadily since its listing. Relying on Shell pulverized coal gasification technology, the company has a huge space to reduce production costs in the future. In addition, with the expansion of the mass production capacity of major commodities, the compound growth rate of its performance will reach more than 40% in the next two to three years, and the performance of high quality and high growth will be sustained.
The company's performance in 2007 and 2008 is expected to be 0.94 yuan/share and 65,438+0.38 yuan/share respectively. As a leading coal chemical company with significant long-term competitive advantage, its valuation level is far below the market average.