1, the industrial structure is traditional, and the proportion of emerging industries is low.
Recently, changes in the external environment have once again pushed the Pearl River Delta to the forefront. However, this has once again verified the fact that in the high-end manufacturing fields such as communication and electronics, although China still has many technical deficiencies and has no absolute advantage in the value chain, the Pearl River Delta region, especially Shenzhen, has great uniqueness in the whole world in terms of the integrity of production links.
Most companies listed in Hong Kong stocks and US stocks have technical barriers to listing in China, so the industry distribution of A-share listed companies in the region can better reflect the overall development level of manufacturing and general service industries in a region. We might as well analyze A-share listed companies in Guangdong, Kowloon and the Yangtze River Delta to verify the fact that the economic structure of the Yangtze River Delta is heavier and more traditional than that of the Pearl River Delta. In fact, this is also an important reason why the gap between Shenzhen and southern Jiangsu, represented by Suzhou, has widened rapidly. Emerging industries such as electronics and communications account for a relatively high proportion of the output value in the Pearl River Delta, while southern Jiangsu relies more on traditional heavy industries and chemical industries.
We have made statistics on A-share listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong and Kowloon. According to the classification standard of straight flush, the industry distribution of A-share listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta is as follows:
We can see that machinery and chemical industry rank in the top two, accounting for 20% and 1 1% respectively, followed by information services and transportation equipment. Of the 73 listed companies in the transportation equipment category, 59 produce auto parts. Electronics, information equipment (including communication equipment), household appliances and other industries that are strong in Guangdong and Kowloon have a low presence in the Yangtze River Delta.
The above picture shows the industry distribution of listed companies in Guangdong and Kowloon, ranking first in electronics and only sixth in the Yangtze River Delta. Machinery ranks second, the Yangtze River Delta ranks first, the third and the Yangtze River Delta are all information services (including Internet, software and media), the fourth is information equipment, and the Yangtze River Delta ranks fourteenth.
When we put the data of A-share listed companies in Guangdong, Kowloon and the Yangtze River Delta together, the comparison becomes clearer.
The rightmost column is the ratio between Guangdong and Kowloon and the Yangtze River Delta. The higher the proportion, the more obvious the advantage of Guangdong and Kowloon over the Yangtze River Delta in this industry. The lower the proportion, it shows that the industrial scale and head enterprises in Guangdong and Kowloon are not as good as those in the Yangtze River Delta.
In terms of electronic information equipment, the proportion of Guangdong and Kowloon is almost three times that of the Yangtze River Delta. In the case of less than 60% A-share listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta, the absolute number of listed companies in Guangdong and Kowloon electronics and information equipment sub-sectors is higher than that in the Yangtze River Delta. (In the electronics industry, there are 60 93 parent triangles in Kowloon, Guangdong; Information equipment, 44 in Kowloon, Guangdong and 29 in the Yangtze River Delta). Light industry and household appliances are also industries with obvious advantages in Guangdong and Kowloon, which is also in line with the public's perception and cognition. In the production of C-end products that directly face consumers, the brand effect of Pearl River Delta is far stronger than that of Yangtze River Delta.
Looking at the obvious advantages of the Yangtze River Delta, the first is machinery, chemicals and auto parts. Listed companies in these three industries account for 35% of the total A-share listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta, while the proportion in Guangdong and Kowloon is less than 20%. In addition to chemical industry, heavy industries such as metallurgy and military industry are also leading in the Yangtze River Delta. None of the listed companies in Guangdong and Kowloon is engaged in steel or mining, while there are still 13 listed companies in the Yangtze River Delta.
We can draw an obvious conclusion that compared with the Yangtze River Delta, the manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta is more emerging and 2C, and a large number of products such as home appliances and digital products directly face consumers. The manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta is relatively traditional, more 2B, and products such as machinery and chemicals are more oriented to the upstream of the supply chain.
However, it should be admitted that although more intermediate or final products are produced, it is not the main criterion to determine the industrial level. However, as far as the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are concerned, it is an indisputable fact that the overall technical level and R&D investment of electronics, communications, household appliances and other industries in the Pearl River Delta are higher than those of traditional industries with advantages in the Yangtze River Delta, such as metallurgy and chemical industry.
The Yangtze River Delta has always been famous for its active private economy, especially in Zhejiang. However, it is undeniable that due to various objective reasons, the technology investment of private enterprises in China is limited as a whole, and the road to industrial upgrading is doomed to be not smooth sailing.
Shenzhen Huaqiang North was famous for its shanzhai more than ten years ago. At present, the capability of Shenzhen's electronics industry has reached a level that cannot be underestimated all over the world, which has a great relationship with the integration of Shenzhen and even the entire Pearl River Delta region into the global market. Without a large number of foreign-funded enterprises, Hong Kong-funded enterprises and Taiwan-funded enterprises investing in Shenzhen and the Pearl River Delta, the industrial capacity of the Pearl River Delta cannot be rapidly improved in a short time. It is precisely because of the rapid upgrading of this industry's production capacity that the Pearl River Delta has in turn become the region with the lowest cost and the highest efficiency in emerging industries such as electronics and communications. Strong industrial capacity and industrial infrastructure feed back the rise of emerging industries in China. Therefore, the prosperity of private high-tech industries in Shenzhen is inseparable from the influx of foreign capital, including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.
However, the situation in the Yangtze River Delta is completely different. Shanghai is the bridgehead for foreign capital to enter the Yangtze River Delta. Shanghai has concentrated comprador business and service industries, which makes foreign capital and Chinese capital have a trade-off effect in competing for talents in Shanghai, but it lacks the positive driving force like Shenzhen in the industrial chain. Southern Jiangsu has outstanding performance in attracting investment, and the industrial chain of Taiwan-funded enterprises in Sino-Singapore Industrial Park and Kunshan is typical. However, compared with Shenzhen, Suzhou has not developed a local electronic industry chain that is highly compatible with the processing trade industry. On the other hand, in Zhejiang, although state-owned and foreign capital are relatively weak, the local private economy is relatively prosperous. However, most local private enterprises in Zhejiang are reluctant to upgrade their industries.
Increasing investment in technology is not a low threshold for private enterprises. Most local private enterprises in China started from traditional industries, and their initial technical content was not high. If they want to transform into a higher-end field, they will invest a lot. It is not a century-old shop with technological advantages and can make money by selling patents. In the financing environment of China, it is difficult to obtain real capital sources to support long-term innovation and development. In addition, due to the comprehensive business costs and fierce market competition faced by enterprises themselves, the profits are thin, and it is even more impossible to invest in R&D on a large scale (R&D investment is uncertain), and they often fall into the path dependence of second-rate industries. For most private enterprises in the communication industry, it is extremely difficult to transform into a real technology-driven enterprise. The industry itself and its competitive pattern, the company's own governance structure, talent strategy and human resources reserve all determine that such enterprises would rather diversify into real estate and financial fields while maintaining their traditional main business, rather than extend to high-tech fields. This is the dilemma that the private economy in the Yangtze River Delta cannot but face, and it is also the disadvantage of the Yangtze River Delta relative to the Pearl River Delta.
2. The regional openness is weaker than that of the Pearl River Delta.
What is the best business environment and the most developed private economy in China? The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta can fight, especially Zhejiang, and will certainly not lose to the Pearl River Delta.
However, which part of China is the most open and welcome to outsiders? The answer is almost indisputable, and that is the Pearl River Delta.
A few days ago, Guangzhou finally lifted the restrictions on the settlement of non-fresh college students above undergraduate level. This means that graduates with bachelor degree or above can move freely in all cities except Beijing and Shanghai. However, Shanghai, as the city with the strongest economic strength, the most prominent hub position and the most employment opportunities in the Yangtze River Delta region, still cannot completely liberalize the household registration control.
The old school gate before the centenary of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics.
For a long time, Shanghai's settlement policy for local and non-local college graduates has been different. Although graduates from Peking University and Tsinghua have been patched up in recent years, the scale of graduates from the two universities is limited, which still cannot change the overall imbalance between local college students and foreign college students in the settlement policy. Compared with Beijing, the proportion of local students in Shanghai's universities is already very high. Preferential policies for local college graduates make it easier for Shanghai college graduates to settle in Shanghai, but affect the willingness of foreign college graduates to come to Shanghai. Policy inclination, emotional inertia, and even the difference of network effect of natural alumni in Shanghai employment units are all unfriendly factors to foreign college graduates. Beijing, Wuhan and other universities do not leave local college students, and the biggest flow direction is Shenzhen and Guangzhou, not Shanghai, which will undoubtedly affect the long-term competition balance between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta.
More importantly, under the policy inclination, the huge inertia of "Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai graduates are given priority" by Shanghai employers has actually had a spillover effect on this Yangtze River Delta region. Compared with Beijing and Guangdong, employers in the Yangtze River Delta have the highest degree of favor for universities in the region. Although some local people recognize this arrangement, it is obviously extremely unfavorable for the Yangtze River Delta to expand its nationwide appeal and maintain its long-term competitiveness.
On the other hand, in the Pearl River Delta, although the local higher education resources are far less than those in the Yangtze River Delta, they have always been favored by foreign talents. The most typical example is Wuhan. At present, there are 6,543,800+2,000 college students in Wu Hanyou, and the main flow direction of these college students after graduation is the Pearl River Delta. Although there is no local 985 university in Shenzhen, it is the top three employment destinations for most graduates of 985 universities in China.
3. Highly dependent on Shanghai single center, lack of multi-center.
When it comes to opening up, we can't help but mention the differences between the urban systems of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. Observing the net population inflow of major cities in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta in 20 18, the Yangtze River Delta is really not optimistic.
Suzhou, the second largest city in population and economy in the Yangtze River Delta. In 20 18, the resident population only increased by 37,700, and Wuxi was even worse, only 2150,000. In 20 18, the total number of newly added permanent residents in 15 cities in the Yangtze River Delta was 90 1500, which was 3,000 less than the sum of Shenzhen and Guangzhou.
Urban economy is a dual competition of quality and quantity. That is to say, compared with Hangzhou, although Guangzhou has disadvantages such as underdeveloped private economy, few listed companies and lack of local top brands, its regional gateway status still makes it have an economy and population volume far exceeding that of Hangzhou, thus making it possible to absorb foreign population to a greater extent.
The most obvious difference between the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta at the city level is that the Pearl River Delta is polycentric. Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong with similar economies have great influence in different fields, such as trade and logistics, science and technology, finance and so on. However, there is only one gateway city in the Yangtze River Delta, which is Shanghai. Compared with Shanghai, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou are completely subordinate in urban functions and status. Although Hangzhou has two long boards, Internet and local private economy, compared with Shanghai, it does not have the portal function as a whole, and the functions in the fields of finance, shipping, transportation, logistics and high-end professional services are still not perfect. Only Shanghai can meet its demand.
I once pointed out in The Rise of Hangzhou that the greatest luck of Shanghai is that Shanghai and Hangzhou are different from Guangzhou and Shenzhen. The two places are completely complementary rather than competitive, so the rise of Hangzhou has benefited Shanghai, but this is only one aspect of the problem. The fundamental reason for the lack of competition between Hangzhou and Shanghai is that Shanghai's development foundation and resource conditions are far superior to Hangzhou, which is not an order of magnitude at all, so Hangzhou cannot form an overall challenge to Shanghai. From a broader perspective, the lack of a second gateway city and regional center other than Shanghai is a realistic problem to be solved urgently in the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.
Although there is a certain competitive relationship between Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the rise of Shenzhen's relative position and the decline of Guangzhou's relative position are not the result of Guangzhou-Shenzhen competition, but the result of industrial changes. (See "Guangdong is not sorry for Guangzhou, Guangzhou has done nothing wrong") Without the rapid development of Shenzhen in recent years, Guangzhou, which relies more on traditional industries such as traditional state-owned enterprises, automobile processing and manufacturing, and fast-disappearing foreign capital, will also decline in its relative position (the main outward migration directions of many traditional industries in Guangzhou, such as fast-disappearing, culture and media, are also Shanghai and Beijing, not Shenzhen). To some extent, the rapid growth of emerging industries in Shenzhen has become stronger. On the surface, there is indeed some competition between Guangzhou and Shenzhen in terms of transportation infrastructure, but overall, the development of Shenzhen is obviously more positive for Guangzhou.
If Shanghai wants to be better, it needs to have Shenzhen to Guangzhou next to it. Today's Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou are not comparable to any of Guangzhou and Shenzhen in terms of the comprehensiveness of urban functions. Or take the added value of the tertiary industry as an example. The sum of the added value of the tertiary industry in Hangzhou and Nanjing 20 18 is just equal to Guangzhou. The obvious gap between Hangzhou, Nanjing and Guangzhou in city scale and energy level not only affects its own development, but also becomes a potential worry in the process of integration of the Yangtze River Delta.
In Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou, there is little difference in the overall quality indicators of economic development, and there is no order of magnitude difference in terms of per capita GDP and the number of listed companies. Guangzhou's population and economic scale give it a huge magnet effect, which Hangzhou, Nanjing and Suzhou simply do not have.
In particular, Guangdong's household registration itself lacks the added value of various public services such as education and medical care of household registration in municipalities directly under the Central Government, while Guangdong has always pursued a fairly open settlement system, which further pushed up the population growth of Guangzhou and Shenzhen. However, due to various reasons, it is impossible for Shanghai to liberalize its household registration at present, and it is necessary to strictly control the size of the permanent population. If the Yangtze River Delta cities such as Hangzhou and Nanjing cannot form an important national resource distribution center and an important regional gateway, many potential people who may enter the Yangtze River Delta will only flow to the Pearl River Delta.
The talent policy in the Pearl River Delta attracts people's attention. Yesterday (26th), Wang Lixin, Vice Mayor of Shenzhen, publicly stated that Shenzhen will implement the Notice of State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China of the Ministry of Finance on Preferential Policies for Individual Income Tax in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (No.31), and the marginal tax rate of talents in short supply will be reduced from 45% to 15%, and the local government of Shenzhen will help these talents pay taxes. The hunger and thirst of the Pearl River Delta in attracting talents and its outstanding policy strength should serve as a mirror of the Yangtze River Delta.
4. Low economic density affects production capacity.
A very important criterion for measuring modern economy is density. Compared with the Pearl River Delta, the population density in the Yangtze River Delta is obviously lower. Under the condition of gathering to create value, lower population density also means lower economic density (GDP created per unit area).
Let's look at the table above. There is a comparison between the population and economic density of the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong and Kowloon and the Pearl River Delta (including Hong Kong and Macao). It seems that the population density and economic density of the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong and Kowloon are similar, but in fact this is mainly because Zhaoqing, Jiangmen and Huizhou in the Pearl River Delta have large areas and small populations. As far as the core cities of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are concerned, the economic density of the Yangtze River Delta cities on the left is much lower than that of the Pearl River Delta.
Hangzhou and Ningbo have large mountainous areas and relatively low population density, which are not very comparable with other cities. The population and economic density of Nanjing, Suzhou and Wuxi in southern Jiangsu are far lower than those of the Pearl River Delta. Wuxi, which has the highest economic density among the three cities, has a GDP of only 247 million per square kilometer, which is not only far lower than Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but also worse than Foshan (Foshan has a GDP of 256 million per square kilometer).
Compared with areas with high economic density, low economic density means that in the same area, the output value created is relatively low and the employment opportunities generated are relatively few. People's commuting activities are physically restricted, which means that the city cannot expand indefinitely. A city's economic density is low, and its population attraction and carrying capacity are relatively weak.
Many people in the Yangtze River Delta have put forward a concept that the largest urban economy in China is the integration of Shanghai and Suzhou. However, it should be noted that the density of Shanghai and Suzhou is not high compared with the core area of the Pearl River Delta.
The total area of Shanghai and Suzhou has reached 6.5438+0.48 million square kilometers, exceeding the sum of Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen or Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan. It should be noted that the total area of these three cities is only 1. 1.9 million square kilometers. That is to say, from a spatial perspective, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen are much denser than Shanghai and the Soviet Union. Therefore, whether per capita GDP, economic density or population density, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Shenzhen are stronger than Shanghai and the Soviet Union. That is to say, according to Guangzhou, Foshan and Dongguan, although Guangzhou's leading position is not as good as that of Shanghai, and Dongguan and Suzhou are similar industrial cities, it is still neck and neck. Per capita GDP, economic density and population density are only slightly lower than those of Shanghai and the Soviet Union, which are still an order of magnitude.
The data verifies people's most intuitive feelings. In the Pearl River Delta, the city is really in a continuous state, shuttling between Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Buddha and Dongguan, with almost no farmland; In the Yangtze River Delta, between cities, a large area of farmland still exists.
Guangdong and Jiangsu once clung to GDP figures, and now Jiangsu is gradually being dumped by Guangdong. The main reasons are the low density of cities in Jiangsu, the limited employment opportunities in central cities such as Suzhou and Nanjing, the low carrying capacity for migrants and the poor natural attraction.
The above picture shows the number of newly added permanent residents in some cities in recent five years. In Hangzhou, which stands out in the Yangtze River Delta, the increase of permanent residents in the past five years is still less than half that of any city in Shenzhen, Chengdu and Guangzhou, and only roughly equivalent to Zhengzhou. However, the population growth in Nanjing and Suzhou has almost stagnated in the past five years. At the end of 20 13, the resident population in Suzhou was only 50,000 less than that in Shenzhen, and by the end of 20 18, the gap had widened to 2.3 million. In all fairness, the negative effects of Suzhou's "1+4" model, such as small economic volume and weak external attraction, have already appeared. (See "Why Suzhou Should Repair the Abacus of the Airport")
5. The lack of "village in the city" leads to the high living cost of ordinary workers.
Walking on the streets of cities in the Yangtze River Delta is very different from feeling in the Pearl River Delta. Generally speaking, the cities in the Yangtze River Delta are more orderly, brighter and cleaner.
But this is not necessarily a good thing.
Two-thirds of the permanent residents in Shenzhen are migrant workers who have not settled down (see Hong Kong today, will it be Shenzhen's tomorrow? ), under the extremely high housing prices and living costs in Shenzhen, why can we gather nearly 10 million industrial workers? The secret is simple-village in city. There are 1427 villages in Shenzhen, accounting for one-sixth of the city's area, and half of Shenzhen's permanent population lives here. Shenzhen municipal managers once wanted to demolish the village in the city, but in the end they chose to "transform", that is, optimize the environment on the premise of retaining the village in the city.
Clear water means no fish. Shenzhen knows very well that it is impossible for Shenzhen to maintain such a huge and complete industrialization chain without the low-cost living space of the village in the city.
This phenomenon exists not only in Shenzhen, but also in the main industrial areas of Guangzhou (Panyu, Huangpu and Baiyun), as well as Foshan and Dongguan, which constitute the most suitable living space for migrant workers. In the Yangtze River Delta, there are far fewer such villages in cities and villages on the edge of cities. In the year of 20 18, the difference of 600,000 permanent residents between the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is largely due to this.
Some people may say that industrial workers are "guaranteed to eat and live" and the company has dormitories. It doesn't matter whether there is a "village in the city". This kind of cognition is also one-sided. First of all, not all employers have dormitories; On the other hand, industrial workers or general practitioners in catering and other industries have great work flexibility and often have room for change; Take-away, express delivery and other industries have loose employment relations, and their employees also need to live; The village in the city itself is a complete service industry ecology ... all these can prove that the village in the city is indispensable for economic vitality.
The cities in the Yangtze River Delta, represented by Shanghai, are undoubtedly the best in the standardization of urban governance in all regions of the country. However, a vibrant city needs not only order, but also fireworks brought by moderate "chaos". Without the so-called "end population", it is impossible for any region to achieve high-end economy. In China, a big country that has long relied on industry and general service industry, cities should not only create opportunities for college students, but also provide more low-cost living space for ordinary industrial workers. At this point, the Yangtze River Delta should learn more from the experience of the Pearl River Delta, especially Shenzhen.
Write it at the back:
I live in Hangzhou. I used to live in Guangzhou. The Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta are familiar to me. As a new Hangzhou native, I have always been a staunch supporter of the integrated development of the Yangtze River Delta.
Jiangnan is rich in humanities and beautiful in scenery. From the Song Dynasty to 1949, the Yangtze River Delta has always been the absolute and only economic core area of China. After 1949, Hong Kong sprang up suddenly, and Guangdong had to take the lead in opening up, and the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta gradually formed a coexistence trend. However, even in terms of economic aggregate, Guangdong only surpassed Jiangsu in the late 1980s and early 1990s.
Hangzhou Qianjiang New City
On hinterland conditions and historical accumulation; On the strength of science and education and the tradition of businessmen, there is no doubt that the Yangtze River Delta is above the Pearl River Delta. But the indisputable fact is that today's Yangtze River Delta is far from fully stimulating its advantages. Compared with the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta has more obvious dependence on the traditional industrial path, and there are also shortcomings in openness and flexibility, which are worthy of reflection.
This series of problems is reflected in the widening gap between Guangdong and Jiangsu in the past few years, and also in the declining attraction of talents and population in the Yangtze River Delta relative to the Pearl River Delta and even inland areas. In the past five years, the sum of the increment of permanent residents in Nanjing and Suzhou is only 45% of that in Zhengzhou and 20% of that in Chengdu. To some extent, this number can be described as "stunned".
"East, west, north and south, rich in Guangdong". This folk proverb, which rose in the 1980s and 1990s, is still echoing today. This is the powerful "brand mind" that Guangdong has established in the hearts of the people all over the country. For today's Yangtze River Delta, it is still a top priority to polish the golden signboard that is suitable for business and living.
The Yangtze River Delta will always be a land worthy of blessing. Only by recognizing your own coordinates can you go further.