Author: Xie Renjie
Joint venture sales of new energy products, what is the current situation? Statistically speaking, the feeling may not be deep. But as long as you walk into the store at close range, the taste is not only sour and refreshing, but also terrible.
impression in the market
Volkswagen ID is not included. At least one group of customers in the store look at ID every day, while those who look at GTE may be pulled from fuel truck customers.
BBA is different, each has its own misery. BMW's main sales are iX3 and i3, and the discount is 332, yuan and 262, yuan. Customers often know that BMW has new energy in advance, but the impression at the store may be that the configuration is low and the price is high. Come here for nothing else, just to strengthen your confidence in buying domestic new energy.
even in BBA, Audi's new energy layout is relatively small. At present, only Q4 etron and A6L are on sale in the store. Almost no customers rush to new energy sources, all of which are in-store conversion considerations. Generally, they have Audi cars at home. Brand loyalty still seems to work, but the conversion rate is really touching.
Mercedes-Benz customers came to the store for several months, and none of them came to see new energy. They didn't even know that Mercedes-Benz had new energy. So that for the first time, there is one who wants to see it. Everyone in the store has a big alarm in his head and suspects that the customer is the undercover of the manufacturer. But no matter what you come to see, the salesman will take the customer around the new energy, as long as the customer has not started swearing, it will be hard to push. Because there are new energy performance fines in the store.
The comparison of the words taught by the store is Weilai ET7. Objectively speaking, EQE chassis texture is indeed much stronger than the latter. But customers only know competing products, which is the problem.
Japanese new energy? Not to mention that. Just to mention one thing, Toyota pure electricity can really be seen on the street, not a verification code. The verification code is too ugly to see. Toyota iA5 is written on the back of the ass, but there is a Chuanqi sign hanging in the middle, which makes people very entangled.
Joint ventures are the product of a specific historical stage
Of course, all joint ventures have new energy bases. Although the sales volume of second-tier joint ventures has somewhat collapsed in the first two months of this year, it is not necessary to pack up immediately. This year marks the 4th anniversary of Santana's introduction. The babies born at that time are now middle-aged. People are like this, how can they feel?
when it was introduced, the Germans were in a state of mind. At that time, the only reliable consumption was large enterprises and party and government organs, and personal consumption would start 2 years later. Who would have predicted in 2 years that an agricultural country (yes, industrialization was not completed at that time) would become the number one industrial country in the world today? It is not only the number one, but also the only country in the world with all the industrial categories and subcategories of the United Nations (41 industrial categories and 525 subcategories). Today, the industrial added value is equivalent to the sum of G7, and the actual purchasing power is stronger than G7.
in a country with the most complete supply chain, the largest vehicle market and the largest number of R&D patents (except appearance patents), is it strange that automobile brands are gradually dominant?
This is why the United States is betting on sanctions against China in the field of chips, because there is nothing else to bet on.
any predator in nature is very sensitive to fast-moving things, because it indicates high-priority food or threat. In the same way, we often turn a blind eye to long-distance and slow things. People are also the product of this evolution. It may exaggerate the influence of the present situation, but ignore the slow long-term accumulation effect.
so, what is the long-term trend for the automobile industry? It is clear that with the rise of brand groups in China, the joint venture site has been gradually squeezed.
the strong weaken, and the weak run away. Joint venture is not eternal, but a product of a specific historical period.
It's time
Since the market share of China brand reached more than 5% late last year (in January, the overall market share of China brand passenger cars was 51.6%), the trend has been quite clear.
independently get more than half of the shares, and the rest will be divided into joint ventures. German department is still at 22.9%, showing brand margin and strategic depth; Japanese, once almost neck and neck with German, now has a market share of 16.6%. American department 7.7%; Korean and legal systems together account for 1.2%. It's only a matter of time before they're out. In fact, from a financial point of view, they should have withdrawn a long time ago. Holding back and not giving up may be due to site considerations (I can't stay in the world's largest single market, and my face is not good).
new energy is an industry loss, but this is only a temporary deadlock. It will soon become part of making money and the other part will be out.
BYD Wangwang, Geely Galaxy, Chery Mars (architecture), Chang 'an Deep Blue, Aian Haobo, SAIC Zhiji. These sub-brands were released from last year to this year. Among the new forces, Nezha and Zero Run, which were originally low-end products, have also released more expensive items.
why do you want to go to the high end? Is to make a profit. At this time, the market share of joint ventures in new energy sources is 2.7%, which is basically flat. Nowadays, the market atmosphere, the intensity of competition and the overall ability of the industry are all time to start eating cakes independently.
sinking market: the future world line of competition
In the past, China brands avoided joint ventures, and China brands made differentiated products whatever others did. At present, the frequency of issuing new cars on the market and the sound of publicity are greater than those of joint ventures. We haven't come to the bottom of the matter yet, but it's just a temporary advantage.
Most of the new energy sources planned by the joint venture will come up after 225, and the cucumber vegetables will be cold when they come up. Because technology is inherited, the new generation of products, no matter how many new technologies are adopted, will inherit at least 7% of the old technologies, so as to ensure the reliability and research and development cycle. The platformization based on E-E architecture is a sharp weapon to shorten the cycle.
most of the joint ventures are still in the stage of just getting rid of oil and changing to electricity and starting to launch the first batch of pure blood and pure electricity products. The accumulation of strength promotes the change of market structure, while the public's impression and consumption preference are obviously lagging behind. In cities or towns in the fourth and fifth tier, it is better to have a 14,-yuan joint venture truck than a domestic hybrid with strong power and three oils per 1 kilometers. It is not that they are not sensitive to the price difference (these people are very sensitive to the cost of holding), but their cognition has not kept up.
in addition, cars have social value. This is recognized by us, but our visual dead angle is that we only recognize that luxury cars (such as hundreds of thousands and millions) have social value, that is, they have face among acquaintances when they drive out. We just don't recognize the 1,-class family car, and we also have this consumption logic.
actually, it is sinking the market. We made the mistake of focusing only on the first line and automatically replaced it with the universal law of the market. The complexity of China's market far exceeds the differences within the 26 EU countries.
the cognition of this part of the market is lagging behind, which has both advantages and disadvantages for joint ventures and autonomy. New forces rarely sink the market, but joint ventures and autonomy attach great importance to it.
if the joint venture finds that it can't stay in the first, second and third lines in the future, it can only rely on the sinking market, exchange space for time and seek a counterattack; For autonomy, the original fuel truck was the route of "taking the countryside to surround the city". Now the new energy should be reversed again, and the sinking market will be plowed into a new niche market sooner or later, that is to say, it will be a dish on the plate sooner or later. After all, the cost of traveling to 3 yuan for a few hundred kilometers is to hoist a fuel truck (isn't it funny to consider the residual value of a 1,-yuan class car).
evidence of trend evolution
China brand originally took the route of "giving more", that is, the chassis, power and workmanship were slightly worse, but the comfort equipment was given more. This practice has been ridiculed many times.
In the past few years, China brand has hired a bunch of foreign designers, which has improved the design level. In recent years, designers in China have mastered the design language, and abandoned the imported dross of "doll".
The new energy makes the paper strength of the power, first smash the ordinary fuel family car, and then enlarge the move, and take the step of denying it on the road of "giving more".
Full car screen, starry sky roof, car refrigerator, seat ventilation and heating, buried door handle, laser radar, automatic driving, 6C charging, Internet of Everything, intelligent assistant ... all the thoughts are piled up. In high-end cars, the joint venture can still survive, because the joint venture also piles up materials at the high end. But hundreds of thousands of cars do the same, which is a bit "lightning five whips". People don't have me, and people have me.
There is another sign. At least this year, China brands didn't hear the word "cost-effective" when releasing new products and new cars.
this shows that at least on the operator's side, the original guilty performance is gone, and they all feel stronger.
Even when various water forces attacked the China brand, the word "Low" was enough in the past. Now the main attack words are sweatshops, patriotic marketing, hunger marketing, copying Tesla, cheating subsidies, and poor reliability. Anyway, it takes a lot of lip service. What is the reality reflected by the reason for the focus of the attack?
People's steam observation:
Actually, the joint venture entered the second half in China, not in the future, but a fact that has already happened. Of course, the progress is different. Simply put, ordinary family cars, the third line is out first, the second line is marginalized, and the first line struggles to survive; Luxury cars are smaller in depth, and there is no third line. The second line has been moistened or close to moistening, and the first line is in conflict with each other. First-line multinational brands will not be completely eliminated, but the scenery is not as good as it is now.
Last year, Hyundai-Kia sold more than 3, cars in China. I think Hyundai alone was over one million. However, it did not prevent Hyundai-Kia from performing strongly in the global market and won the third place. This shows that it is only the beginning stage for China to go out, get the market and build awareness.
for developed markets, Hyundai-KIA is aiming at cost performance and differentiation. China brand goes out, if only commercial factors are considered, it is not a problem to turn over Koreans. However, the market is very complicated, such as South Korea's battery supply chain in the United States and the deployment of vehicle production capacity without any hindrance. Try switching to China brand?
however, it is not good news for the joint venture if Chinese enterprises encounter setbacks in the future. There will only be more volumes in China, and the result is self-evident.
This article is from the author Ren Qi, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author if you reprint it in any form. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with car change.