As the "vanguard" of China's economic growth, Guangdong's regional GDP has ranked first in the country for 33 consecutive years in 2021, surpassing South Korea and Russia, and its size is equivalent to the world's tenth largest economy. body. The corresponding general public budget revenue has exceeded 1.4 trillion yuan, far ahead among the 31 provinces and municipalities in the country. Compared with other provinces, Guangdong's finance has distinctive characteristics, which are mainly reflected in: large net contribution to the central government, serious regional fiscal differentiation within the province, relative centralization of provincial finance, high quality of fiscal revenue, relatively concentrated tax sources in leading industries, land finance Low dependence, low debt risk, and the twin cities of Guangzhou and Shenzhen develop in tandem but have completely different fiscal systems.
Guangdong’s economic and financial development is inseparable from the global changes unseen in a century and the general environment in which China is accelerating the construction of a new development pattern. Guangdong faces a series of major challenges, which have a significant impact on its financial situation. First, anti-globalization and global trade frictions have led to a downturn in global economic and trade activities, which will inevitably affect the fiscal revenue of Guangdong, which has obvious export-oriented economic characteristics. Second, China’s economy has shifted from high-speed to high-quality development, and from the real estate boom to the era of technological and manufacturing power. Although Guangdong’s overall dependence on land transfer revenue is not high, the absolute amount of revenue contributed by land transfer revenue and some cities such as Guangzhou’s reliance on land The high dependence on income means that the real estate industry entering a downturn will impact the disposable financial resources of Guangdong, especially some cities, and increase regulatory pressure on the provincial government. Third, the urban agglomeration strategy of the metropolitan area and the regional development strategy of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are gradually advancing, and the population continues to flow into Guangdong, creating demand for public services. The central government's requirement to improve the system for providing basic public services in permanent residences will put significant pressure on Guangdong's fiscal expenditures. The rising demand for people's livelihood and social security will put greater pressure on some prefectures and cities. District and county fiscal operations require a large amount of transfer payments from superiors. The fourth is to promote high-quality development of scientific and technological innovation and ensure food and energy security, which does not require strong support from fiscal expenditures. Fifth, achieving balanced regional development, promoting rural revitalization and achieving common prosperity are more arduous tasks for Guangdong than other provinces in the east. Therefore, as an excellent "vanguard", Guangdong, although it has the overall advantage of strong financial resources, will face a series of contradictions and problems in fiscal revenue and expenditure in the future.
In the short term, "increasing revenue and reducing expenditure" and "extracting fat to make up for thin" are methods to solve the problem of revenue and expenditure contradictions and regional imbalances under static thinking. However, coordinated regional development is not a simple absolute average between cities. It is not about eliminating differences between regions, but about narrowing the per capita development gap between regions. Regional balance cannot be pursued at the expense of overall economic growth. In the medium to long term, promoting economic transformation and upgrading and adjusting the fiscal system at the provincial level are the fundamental solutions. On the one hand, Guangdong should further strengthen the intensity and efficiency of fiscal coordination, promote the reform of fiscal systems and mechanisms, and effectively reduce the fiscal risks of some cities and counties in the east, west, and north of Guangdong. On the other hand, coordinated regional development needs to be based on comparative advantages and change the "polarization effect" into a "diffusion effect." Guangdong needs to implement precise policies based on its natural endowments and local conditions, give full play to the guiding role of finance in the transformation of industrial structure, and enhance the endogenous development momentum of underdeveloped areas.
1. Overview of the fiscal system and tax source structure of Guangdong Province
The economy determines the tax base and profoundly affects fiscal revenue. The local fiscal situation, especially that of cities, districts and counties, is not only closely related to macroeconomic aggregates and meso-level industrial structure, but is also affected by factors such as micro-enterprise entities and sub-provincial fiscal systems. Based on the analysis of the fiscal system and tax source structure of Guangdong Province based on the latest "China Tax Yearbook" and "Guangdong Tax Yearbook", four basic conclusions can be drawn.
First, from the perspective of net contribution to the national finance, Guangdong Province’s net contribution to the central finance ranks first in the country. The net contribution of local governments to the central finance is measured by using the central-level tax revenue generated by local governments and the central rebate revenue received by the central government.
In 2019, Guangdong's net contribution to the central finance led the country, reaching 830.7 billion yuan, higher than Shanghai (820.2 billion yuan), Beijing (731 billion yuan), Jiangsu (409.1 billion yuan), Zhejiang (327.4 billion yuan), and Shandong (215.2 billion yuan). 100 million yuan), Tianjin (213.6 billion yuan), Fujian (42.7 billion yuan), Liaoning (6.7 billion yuan) and other provinces require net subsidies from the central government.
Second, from the perspective of the provincial fiscal system, due to the unbalanced economic development of Guangdong Province, the provincial finance needs to control a certain amount of financial resources for overall planning and balance, so the proportion of provincial-level revenue is higher than that of other provinces. The proportion of retained revenue in cities and counties is relatively low, and they have a relatively centralized local fiscal system. Under the tax-sharing system, various cities in Guangdong (except Shenzhen) must share taxes with the central government and Guangdong Province. For example, the distribution ratios of value-added tax among the central government, provinces, and municipalities are 50, 25, and 25 respectively. Corporate income tax and personal income tax are distributed between the central government and Guangdong Province. , provincial and municipal allocation ratios are 60, 20, 20. Shenzhen implements the fiscal management system of a city under separate state planning and enjoys provincial fiscal and taxation management authority. It is mainly linked to the central finance, shares taxes with the central government, and accepts transfer payments and tax refunds from the central government. Zhejiang, which also belongs to the eastern region, has relatively balanced economic development in the province, and tax distribution is tilted towards cities and counties. The distribution ratio of corporate income tax and personal income tax at the central, provincial and municipal levels is 60, 0, and 40 (that is, the province does not participate in the sharing). In the context of Guangdong Province increasing provincial fiscal coordination, the proportions of general public budget revenue at the provincial, municipal, and county levels in Guangdong Province in 2019 were 26.0, 40.5, and 33.5 respectively, of which provincial-level revenue The proportion of the province's income is significantly higher than the 2.2 in Jiangsu Province, 4.9 in Zhejiang Province, and 10.1 in Fujian, and is close to Guizhou's 25.4, Shaanxi's 27.6, and Gansu's 27.8. It is worth noting that after secondary distribution, provincial and municipal governments sink financial resources to county-level governments in the form of transfer payments.
From the expenditure side, county-level governments bear the main expenditure responsibilities. In 2019, the proportions of general public budget expenditures at the provincial, municipal, and county levels in Guangdong Province were 8.2, 36.5, and 55.3 respectively. From the perspective of expenditure structure, in addition to education expenditures, which account for a relatively high proportion of government expenditures at all levels, Guangdong Province has the highest expenditure on public safety, reaching 20.9; the city level has urban and rural communities, general public * **Services and other infrastructure and maintenance and operation expenditures are dominated, and county-level government expenditures on urban and rural communities and social security expenditures account for a relatively high proportion.
Third, from the perspective of industrial structure, the tax revenue generated by Guangdong Province mainly comes from the secondary and tertiary industries, with manufacturing, real estate, wholesale and retail, and financial industries contributing about 80%. In 2019, the proportions of tax revenue generated by the three industries in Guangdong Province were 0.1, 37.3 and 62.6 respectively, and the tertiary industry has become the main source of tax revenue. Relatively speaking, Shenzhen's tax source structure is quite different from other regions in Guangdong. The tertiary industry tax revenue accounted for 81.8, which is 29.4 percentage points higher than the average of the province (excluding Shenzhen). Among them, the financial industry contributes the most to Shenzhen's tax revenue, reaching 26.5, which is 20.2 percentage points higher than the average of the province (excluding Shenzhen). This is related to the concentration of financial institution headquarters in Shenzhen.
Looking specifically at the tax revenue generated by the industrial industry, the overall distribution of tax sources in Guangdong shows the characteristics of "small agglomeration" and is highly related to the distribution of industries in prefectures and cities. The manufacturing development of the nine cities in the Pearl River Delta has its own characteristics and contributes significantly to tax revenue. For example, the automobile and chemical manufacturing industries in Guangzhou, the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industries in Zhuhai, Foshan, and Zhongshan, and the computer communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries in Shenzhen and Dongguan. Western Guangdong, represented by Maoming and Zhanjiang, is rich in mineral resources. The petroleum, coal and other fuel processing industries, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries contribute significantly to tax revenue. Wholesale and retail are relatively developed in eastern Guangdong. Shantou, Jieyang, and Shanwei are mainly exporters of traditional light industries, with the textile, clothing and apparel industry accounting for a relatively high proportion. Economic growth in northern Guangdong relies heavily on traditional industries such as tobacco and real estate, resulting in a relatively single tax source structure.
Taking Meizhou as an example, the tobacco products industry, real estate and construction industries among the traditional pillar industries paid a total of 10.57 billion yuan in taxes in 2019, accounting for 52% of the city's tax revenue.
Fourth, from the perspective of micro entities, Guangdong’s private economy is active and is an important source of tax revenue. In 2019, the tax revenue generated by the private economy in Guangdong exceeded 1.36 trillion yuan, and the tax revenue from the private economy accounted for 57.5% of the tax revenue in Guangdong Province. This is mainly due to the strong economic vitality of Guangdong Province, which leads the number of high-quality private enterprises and ranks first in the country in terms of business scale. In 2019, the added value of Guangdong's private economy (the statistical caliber does not include foreign-controlled enterprises) reached 5.89 trillion yuan, accounting for 54.6% of the regional GDP. In 2018, 65% of Guangdong's invention patents and more than 75% of innovative achievements came from private enterprises, and 80% of the country's It is a private high-tech enterprise.
2. Guangdong’s fiscal situation in 2021: leading the country in total, but serious regional differentiation
First, the total fiscal revenue of Guangdong Province is large, but there are 21 prefecture-level governments in the province. The fiscal performance of cities and above is quite different and the differentiation is serious. In 2021, Guangdong Province's general public sector budget revenue exceeded the 1.4 trillion yuan mark, accounting for 12.7% of the national local general public sector budget revenue, ranking first in the country for 31 consecutive years. The first place in the province, Shenzhen's general public budget revenue exceeded 400 billion, accounting for 30.2% of the province's total. Chaozhou, the last place, just exceeded 5 billion yuan. Shenzhen's fiscal revenue is 82.2 times that of Chaozhou. In terms of per capita general public budget income, Shenzhen, which ranks first (21,875 yuan/person), is 16.5 times that of Jieyang, which ranks last (1,326 yuan/person). Looking at districts and counties, there are 13 districts and counties with general public budget revenue exceeding 10 billion, all concentrated in the three cities of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Foshan, 6 in Shenzhen, 4 in Guangzhou, and 3 in Foshan. Among them, Shenzhen Nanshan District ranked first with a scale of 36.1 billion yuan, 172 times that of the last place, Liannan Yao Autonomous County in Qingyuan City.
From the perspective of fiscal revenue quality, the overall fiscal revenue quality of Guangdong needs to be improved, while tax revenue accounts for a relatively high proportion of fiscal revenue in the Pearl River Delta region, and northern Guangdong is highly dependent on non-tax revenue. In 2021, Guangdong Province's tax revenue accounted for 76.5% of the general public budget revenue, which is 8.8 percentage points lower than the national average. The Pearl River Delta region has the best quality of fiscal revenue, with Dongguan’s tax revenue accounting for 82.2% in 2021. The proportions of tax revenue in general public budget revenue in eastern Guangdong, western Guangdong, and northern Guangdong are 64.7, 60.6, and 60.3 respectively. Among them, Yunfu (50) in northern Guangdong has the lowest fiscal quality.
Second, there are obvious regional differences in fiscal self-sufficiency rates. Non-Pearl River Delta cities have poor fiscal self-sufficiency rates and are highly dependent on transfer payments. Except for Zhaoqing, the fiscal self-sufficiency rates of cities in the Pearl River Delta are all above 50. Shenzhen (93.2), Dongguan (88), and Foshan (77.6) rank among the top three in the province. Zhaoqing has the lowest fiscal self-sufficiency rate, but it is also 36.9. The fiscal self-sufficiency rates of other non-Pearl River Delta cities are all below 36, and they are highly dependent on transfer payments. Among them, the fiscal self-sufficiency rates of Shanwei (18.8), Meizhou (21.4), Jieyang (21.5), Heyuan (24.4), and Chaozhou (24.7) are relatively low. Among them, the fiscal self-sufficiency rate of Jiexi County in Jieyang City is as low as 9.1.
Thirdly, due to the continuous inflow of population, high urbanization rate, high housing and land prices in the core cities of the Pearl River Delta, the scale of government fund income is relatively high. However, overall, Guangdong’s cities have a relatively low impact on land finance. The degree of dependence is not high. In terms of scale, the revenue of government funds in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, Dongguan and Huizhou ranks among the top five in the province, with revenue of 2388.6, 1373.7, 1163.5, 702.2 and 53.17 billion yuan respectively. The revenue of government funds in other cities is smaller, among which Yunfu’s revenue is smaller. The scale is the lowest, only 2.48 billion yuan. Guangzhou, the first place, is 96 times that of Yunfu.
The dependence of various cities in Guangdong on land finance is approximately measured by government fund income/(government fund income general public budget income). Shantou, Foshan, and Guangzhou have the highest dependence on land finance, reaching 60.6, 59.1, and 56.5 respectively. , while Shenzhen has the lowest, only 24.4.
Fourth, the local government debt balance of Guangdong Province exceeded 2 trillion yuan in 2021, ranking first in the country. However, Guangdong Province has a large economy and its debt ratio is only 16.5, which is far lower than the international warning line of 60. It ranks second from the bottom among the 31 provinces in the country. The overall debt repayment pressure is not great. The debt scale of the Pearl River Delta region is generally high. The debt scale of the four cities of Guangzhou, Foshan, Shenzhen and Dongguan is more than 100 billion yuan. Among them, Guangzhou ranks first with 372.77 billion yuan, accounting for nearly one-fifth of the province's total debt scale. The debt balance of cities in western Guangdong and northern Guangdong is generally between 40 billion and 70 billion yuan, of which Zhanjiang's debt is larger, reaching 69.95 billion yuan. Except for Shantou (62.84 billion yuan), the debt scale in eastern Guangdong is generally small, with Shanwei, Jieyang, and Chaozhou all less than 40 billion yuan. At the same time, Guangdong Province has completed the goal of "clearing" the existing hidden debt as scheduled, becoming the first province in the country with no hidden debt.
Fifth, considering the level of economic development in various places, although cities in the Pearl River Delta have larger debt scales, their debt ratios are generally lower; cities in northern Guangdong generally have higher debt ratios and heavier debt pressures. The economic development of Pearl River Delta cities such as Shenzhen (4.6), Dongguan (10.1), Guangzhou (13.2), and Zhongshan (14.7) has gradually moved away from investment-driven development. Economic growth is less dependent on debt and the debt repayment pressure is lighter. In comparison, the debt ratios of the five cities in northern Guangdong are all above 30, with the highest in Meizhou reaching 47.4. Meizhou accounts for 6 of the 10 districts and counties with the highest debt ratios in the province. Some cities and counties with backward economic development, such as the northeastern and eastern parts of Guangdong, have greater debt risks.
3. Promote balanced regional development in Guangdong Province
First, establish the basic understanding that coordinated regional development is a relatively balanced development strategy. Coordinated regional development is not a simple absolute average, nor is it the elimination of differences between regions, but a narrowing of the per capita development gap between regions. Regional balance cannot be pursued at the expense of overall economic growth, but the rationality of primary distribution should be enhanced during development. , Strengthen the government's secondary distribution, encourage the development of tertiary distribution, and promote common prosperity for all people.
The second is to proceed from the reform of the fiscal system and promote the reform of the division of expenditure responsibilities among provinces, cities and counties. The current decline in land transfer revenue and unabated rigid expenditures in the field of people's livelihood will lead to increased fiscal pressure in some cities and counties in Guangdong Province. Guangdong's fiscal coordination and efficiency should be further strengthened, the reform of the fiscal system and mechanism should be promoted, and the fiscal risks of some cities and counties in the east, west, and north of Guangdong should be effectively reduced. .
First, accelerate the reform of the division of expenditure responsibilities between provinces and cities and counties in the field of basic public services, tilt the overall planning ratio towards the northern ecological development zone and other underdeveloped areas, and take the lead in realizing basic education in the northern ecological development zone Basic public services such as public health, public health, and social security are borne by the provincial fiscal coordination central and provincial funds, and are gradually extended to the coastal economic zone.
Second, the superior finance department will increase financial transfer payment subsidies and increase the basic financial resources at the county level, which will be used by the county level based on local actual conditions to better invest in “guaranteing wages, ensuring operations, and "Protecting People's Livelihood" field.
Third, give full play to the guiding role of finance in social capital, increase financial support for finance in the east, west, and north of Guangdong, and promote the balance of financial resources within the province.
The third is to promote economic transformation and upgrading in an orderly manner based on comparative advantages, change the "polarization effect" into a "diffusion effect", implement precise policies according to local conditions, optimize the business environment in the east, west, and north of Guangdong, and enhance the business environment in underdeveloped areas. development momentum.
First, for the relatively developed Pearl River Delta region, we must give full play to the role of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an important window connecting the mainland and Hong Kong and Macao. As an important engine for the economic development of Guangdong Province, we must continue to promote industrial upgrading and Sustainable development helps build a new development pattern.
Second, for the "coastal economic belt" between east and west Guangdong with high population density, we should make full use of the favorable conditions of the coastal bays to accelerate the creation of two new growth poles in Shantou and Zhanjiang, play a radiating role, and collaboratively lead the surrounding areas. regional development.
Third, for the mountainous areas in northern Guangdong with low population density, targeted poverty alleviation and rural revitalization should be the starting point, while taking into account the development of characteristic industries.
Note: This article only represents the author’s personal views and is part of the author’s “Walking China’s Fiscal Map” series