Bitcoin was created by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2008. Satoshi Nakamoto is a mysterious figure. After the white paper "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System" was published on the website, it disappeared, and there were many places where the Yellow Crane carried saints to heaven a long time ago, and now only the Yellow Crane Tower is left. Yellow cranes no longer come, and white clouds no longer fly. "meaning. The mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto also creates the mystery of Bitcoin, and people often have an inexplicable awe of mysterious things. If it's your neighbor's son, Aunt Zhang, who has been playing with computers since he went to college to study for a doctorate, will your impression of Bitcoin be greatly reduced?
Bitcoin is a digital cryptocurrency, which is a series of complex codes generated by a computer. The new bitcoin can be made through a preset program called mining. The so-called "mining" is to solve a complex mathematical problem with a computer, and then the bitcoin network will generate a certain amount of bitcoin as a block reward. Due to the limitation of the program, its total number will be permanently limited to 265,438+00,000. In addition, unlike legal tender, Bitcoin is a decentralized design. It has no centralized issuer, and anyone can participate in the production of Bitcoin.
To sum up: Bitcoin is a virtual currency and there is no central issuer. The quantity is limited and can be traded.
In order to understand this problem, we need to discuss some basic knowledge first.
The first question is: What is money?
In fact, there is no money in the world, and the mother of money is a "transaction". It can also be said that "transaction" is the mother of "money" In primitive society, exchange was realized by barter. For example, I am a cow and two sheep, which is far from the commodity economy. Later, with the development of agriculture and animal husbandry economy, there was a division of social production. In addition to self-sufficiency, there was a surplus of food and materials, and the demand for exchange became stronger and stronger.
Barter has many disadvantages. First, a cow may not be replaced by two sheep, but by two and a half sheep, but half a sheep cannot be delivered. Second, you have cows and I have sheep. You want my sheep, but I may not want your cow. I want Zhang San's pig, but Zhang San doesn't want my sheep or your cow. He wants Li Si's plow.
Because barter is too inconvenient, people look for things that are rare, easy to carry and easy to keep as the medium of trading. Stones, shells and metals all acted as the medium of this transaction, and then gold, silver, copper coins and paper money were produced. To put it bluntly, money is a tool to realize transactions, which is its core function, and this is also the reason why it was born out of the mother.
Of course, money has two other functions, namely, pricing and value storage. The unit of valuation is its second function, and it is also a necessary condition as a trading tool. A cow is 2000 yuan, and a sheep 1000 yuan, so we know what is expensive and what is cheap. We know that a cow is equal to two sheep. People often say "saving money" refers to the means of value storage, and it is also the third function of money. I exchanged 2000 yuan for a cow, but I don't want to eat mutton now, so I saved this 2000 yuan and bought sheep when I wanted to eat mutton. However, no matter how long it is stored, the ultimate goal is to buy buy buying, and storage only realizes the deferred exchange in the time dimension. And money is not the only means to store value. Smart people often like to store wealth with non-monetary assets.
Although money has three major functions in the economy, its core function is still the medium of exchange and a tool for realizing transactions. In order to deepen my impression, I removed the attribute and said several times that "money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool, money is a tool."
The second question: How much does society need?
Money is the medium of transaction, and money is the tool. As a tool, nature is enough. It's just like the chopsticks we use to eat. Chopsticks are tools for eating. They can send the food to your mouth. Five pairs of chopsticks are enough for five people, plus two pairs at most.
How much money a country needs depends on the number of commodities to be traded and the efficiency of currency use, not the more the better. This must be easy to understand. Let's simplify this model and deduce it. For example, there are only three people in a closed world. They are Zhang San, Li Si and Wang Wu. One day, Zhang San paid 1000 gold for Li Si's cattle, and 1000 gold went to Li Si. Six months later, Li Si bought two sheep in Wang Wu with this 1000 gold, and the money went to Wang Wu. Half a year later, Wang Wu used up the 65400 gold. In this closed world, only this 1000 gold is used three times a year. The goods traded are a cow, two sheep and three pigs, with a total value of 3000 gold. If only one cow, two sheep and three pigs need to be traded in this closed world and only three times a year, then this 1000 gold can meet the demand of trading as a medium. The conclusion is that there are 3000 gold commodities to be traded in a year, and the efficiency of currency use is three times that of a year, so the monetary amount of 1000 gold is enough.
The above is only a minimalist model, but any complex theory is born from simplicity. We often indulge in this noisy world and forget the most essential things. "Tao gives birth to one, life gives birth to two, life gives birth to three, and life gives birth to everything." Running around in everything every day, it is easy to be physically and mentally exhausted, and thinking has changed from complex to simple, reversing the order of thinking and forgetting what Tao is.
How much money a country needs depends on the number of commodities to be traded and the efficiency of currency use.
Still the closed model above, let's make a deduction. What if 1000 gold becomes 2000 gold in this closed world? At this time, the price of a cow changed from 1000 gold to 2000 gold, the price of two sheep changed from 1000 gold to 2000 gold, and the price of three pigs changed from 1000 gold to 2000 gold. This closed world is not rich. The wealth is still only this cow, two sheep and three pigs, but at this time both Zhang Si and Wang Wu claim to own them. At this time, the rise in commodity prices is called inflation.
Speaking of inflation, I have to mention Zimbabwe, where everyone used to be a billionaire. There is an inflation called Zimbabwe inflation, which is simply super hyperinflation. A bill with a face value of100,000 Zimbabwe dollars can only be exchanged for10.5 dollars, while it takes130,000 Zimbabwe dollars to buy a chicken in Zimbabwe.
Again, let's assume that Zhang San has the right to coin. Zhang San bought Li Si's cattle and paid 1000 gold. Zhang San had no money at this time, so Zhang San started the printing machine and printed 1000 gold. He bought two sheep in the Wang house with 1000 gold. At this time, the currency in circulation became 2000 gold, and the price became 2000 gold for a cow. Li Si and Wang Wu each have 1000 gold coins. At this time, Li Si wanted to buy the cow he sold to Zhang San, but found that he couldn't afford it. Only 1000 gold can buy half a cow. Wang Wu also wanted to buy back two sheep sold to Zhang San, only to find that 1000 gold in his hand could only buy back one sheep. Li Si, Wang Wu's money is worthless, and his wealth is ruthlessly plundered by Zhang San, who has the right to coin money.
Take the country as an example, the right to coin money is in the hands of the central bank, and the country has no motive to plunder people's wealth. The central bank's printing machine is also relatively temperate, and the amount of money printed depends on the growth of GDP and the tightness of monetary policy.
To repeat, how much money a country needs depends on the number of commodities to be traded and the efficiency of currency use. Under the normal operation of a country, under normal conditions and in the normal economic activities of more than one billion people, the efficiency of currency use can be considered unchanged. So we can usually say that how much money a country needs depends on the number of goods it needs to trade.
Again, how much money a country needs depends on the number of goods it needs to trade. What is GDP? A country's GDP has increased by 1%, which roughly means that a country has more 1% goods and services to trade, so in the absence of inflation, M2, that is, the broad money quantity has also increased by 1%.
But generally speaking, the growth rate of M2 will be slightly higher than that of GDP, because moderate inflation will not cause any harm to the whole society, but will stimulate economic development. We know that inflation will make everyone's money worthless, and conversely, prices will rise; If the growth rate of money is less than that of GDP, it may lead to deflation. Deflation means that everyone's money is more valuable, which in turn means that prices have fallen. Some people may say that falling prices are not a good thing? We can buy more things. Actually, it's far from that simple. If you open a factory and produce shovels, and the raw material is steel, you can earn 1 yuan by signing a contract with the store and selling a shovel in 20 yuan. At this time, you find that the price of steel is decreasing, and then a shovel can earn 2 yuan. You are very happy. You think the number of shovels that stores buy from you every year is certain anyway. Shall I buy it later? At that time, steel should be cheaper, and I could earn a little more profit with each shovel, so you called the store and said, "Hey, Lao Wang, I handed in my shovel two months late, and there's nothing I can do." Be considerate. " Therefore, deflation will lead to negative production, because falling prices mean that money in hand will become more and more valuable, so people tend to hold money in their hands rather than facilitate transactions. Give another simple example. If house prices have been falling moderately, will you still be anxious to buy a house? Everyone will be holding money in their hands, waiting for the house to fall a little, and the more they fall, the less they will buy it. But every time the house price rises, everyone rushes to buy a house.
So moderate inflation is beneficial to economic development. How much inflation is appropriate? Generally speaking, 1%-2.5% is a good interval. A price increase of less than 2.5% per year is considered as unconscious inflation, which can make people feel that they earn more, because raising prices can make manufacturers gain more profits to stimulate their investment enthusiasm, and can also make workers lose more average wages and stimulate the enthusiasm of employees. Moderate inflation will not lead to social unrest. Moderate inflation can stimulate economic development like lubricating oil, which is called "lubricating oil policy".
Summary: How much money a country needs depends on the number of commodities it needs to trade. More money will lead to inflation, and less money will lead to deflation. Moderate inflation, like lubricating oil, is conducive to economic operation.
The third question: why do you need to print more money when you encounter a crisis like an epidemic?
2020 is a special year. When COVID-19 raided and Wuhan was blocked, the people of the whole country immediately threw themselves into the fight against the epidemic. On the first trading day after the Spring Festival, A shares plummeted by 7.72%, and the central bank immediately implemented a loose monetary policy to inject liquidity into the society. In March, COVID-19 spread in European and American countries, with the Dow Jones index dropping from 28,000 points to18,000 points and the Nasdaq dropping from 9,000 points to more than 6,000 points. The Federal Reserve immediately started printing money and even introduced unlimited quantitative easing.
Not only this year, when the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States in 2008, the Federal Reserve also restarted the American economy through the printing press, and later ushered in the mighty US stock market of 10.
Have you ever wondered why every time a crisis comes, economic rescue always starts with the printing press? Why can money solve these problems?
On the last question, we said that how much money a country needs depends on the number of commodities to be traded and the efficiency of currency use. Because under normal circumstances, the efficiency of a country's currency use can be regarded as constant, so we simplify this statement to how much currency a country needs depends on the number of goods it needs to trade. Speaking of which, some friends may have found the answer to the question of printing money. The secret lies in the sentence we just said, "In general, the efficiency of a country's currency use can be regarded as constant." Yes, under normal circumstances, under normal circumstances. The subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and this year's epidemic are very unusual. When the economic order and financial system are subjected to external shocks, the efficiency of the use of money will drop sharply, and then the money will suddenly be insufficient.
I think this is an easy thing to understand, but many people may not think too much.
I remember when the epidemic spread in Europe and America, a friend asked me a question: "Isn't gold a safe-haven asset? Why did the US stock market plummet, and so did gold? Didn't you say that you bought gold in troubled times? "
This is my answer. Simply put, what do you do when you panic because of an event (such as an epidemic)? The answer is to grab masks, grab disinfectant and go to the supermarket to grab daily necessities and food. If everyone does this, it will lead to the liquidity crisis of masks and disinfectant. If there are not enough masks and disinfectants, the prices of masks and disinfectants will rise. This is about the commodity market.
In the capital market, what will all participants grab when they are in a panic? The answer is to rob money. Because I'm afraid my capital chain will break, because I have to pay my due salary, my due debt and my due rent, and I can't do without robbing money. How to rob money? Change all your things into money. When the demand for money exceeds the supply, the price of money will rise sharply, and the relative performance is that the price of investment products will fall sharply. The currency is in a liquidity crisis. The more you can't grab it, the more you panic, the more you want to grab it, and you would rather pay a higher price. This is the same as grabbing masks during the epidemic.
Why is gold, a safe haven asset, also falling? In fact, this is also the truth. What we lack now is money. We are afraid that the capital chain will break, the company will pay off its debts, and the fund will have to handle large redemption. What to sell for money? Sell whatever you have in your hand! Low-quality investment products are not wanted, can not be sold, or sold at extremely low prices. Cutting meat is too hard and painful. What do you sell? You can only sell good quality products, at least at a lighter discount, and then buy them back after the crisis, and the loss will not be too great.
At this point, I think it is probably clear why more money should be printed during the epidemic. When the economic order and financial system suffered a huge impact, many businesses could not do any more, and the cash inflow was cut off, but there was no shortage of money to maintain it. Enterprises and ordinary people need to reserve more money to meet the sudden demand. At this time, everyone will grab money, the price of assets with good liquidity will plummet, and the stock market crash will aggravate the panic, thus forming a stampede. At this time, the best way is to increase the money supply, so a series of policies, such as printing money, cutting interest rates, postponing debt repayment, and exempting taxes, are all aimed at solving the currency liquidity crisis and helping enterprises and ordinary people get out of trouble.
Money can also be regarded as the lubricating oil for economic operation. When the economic order is impacted, the friction cost of economic operation rises sharply, and lubricating oil is suddenly insufficient. At this time, it is necessary to release liquidity and inject lubricating oil, otherwise the economic machine will burn out. If an enterprise has no money to pay its debts or pay its wages, it will go bankrupt in large numbers. Ordinary people can't get their wages, and they are miserable; The government has no taxes and public services are stagnant. The country may enter a long depression, and it may take only a few months to move from an orderly economy to a disorderly economy, while it may take many years to establish order from disorder. The Great Depression of America 1929 is a good example.
The value of this world comes from order, the value of enterprises comes from order, and the value of machines comes from order. The value of an enterprise comes from the correct rules and regulations. Through the correct division of labor and cooperation and the correct means of production, it organizes the right employees, produces the right products and sells them to the right downstream. This is order. It is precisely because of order that many companies have only 1000 billion net assets, but they can support the market value of1000 billion, because this1000 billion net assets can continuously create wealth through orderly operation. Similarly, the value of the machine comes from the order, and just a pile of parts can't be called a machine. It takes a long time to coordinate and adjust from disorder to order. Printing money to save the market is to prevent the orderly economy from entering the disorderly economy. After the Great Depression, many economists have studied this history, among which Keynes is the most outstanding. He pointed out that when the economy is in danger, the government should take the initiative to intervene in the economy to prevent it from entering a disorderly state. After Keynes, there was only a financial crisis, not a Great Depression.
The fourth question: After the previous preparation, we can talk about why Bitcoin can't replace legal tender.
To illustrate this problem, I want to have a quick look at the story of gold.
This sentence was said by the great Marx. This sentence is so incisive that my admiration is like a torrent of water.
It is easy to understand that gold and silver are naturally not money. Gold and silver are just metals, and they are one of the 1 18 elements in the periodic table. They existed when Pangu created the world, and at this time, Nu Wa had not made people, let alone money.
However, in the course of historical development, both Europe and China chose gold and silver as their currencies. In the final analysis, this is inseparable from the natural characteristics of gold and silver. As a kind of metal, gold is easy to extend, cut and deteriorate, with high mining cost and limited quantity. In addition, gold is born noble and has no other use except beauty. It can neither be used as a production tool nor as a means of production. Gold is a complete lady's body and life. Therefore, it is fate that history chooses gold and silver as universal equivalents!
Paper money is a receipt for gold and silver.
Although gold and silver are born beautiful, they are the chosen children of money. But it's still inconvenient to carry gold and silver. With the development of cross-regional trade, many people deposit gold and silver in the bank, and the bank gives these people a receipt. Today, Zhang San received one hundred and twenty pieces of silver. Zhang San can take this receipt from Sichuan to Shanxi, take out money from the bank in Shanxi, and then buy fur fabrics. Later, everyone thought that a receipt of 120 silver could be exchanged for 120 silver at the bank anyway, and it was very troublesome to exchange it. Many shops directly accept receipts as payment, and gradually these receipts become popular, and the names on the receipts are no longer signed. Whoever takes the receipt can change money at the bank. Paper money is thus formed. Paper money is the shadow of gold and silver, and a receipt of 120 contains 120 grains of silver.
3. The Bretton Woods system under the gold standard
On the eve of the end of World War II, the nouveau riche America and the old aristocratic Britain organized a group of younger brothers to discuss the post-war reconstruction work, and they all focused on the international monetary system. How much is it to have the right to cast international currency? Britain moved out of the famous economist Keynes and formulated the "Keynes Plan", hoping to shock the United States academically and let the United States give some face. But Britain thinks too much, pretending to be B is not practical, and academics are not as thick as legs. The "White Plan" of the United States won in one fell swoop by virtue of its three-quarters of the world's gold reserves and strong military and economic strength. Since this meeting was held in Bretton Woods, the proposed international monetary system is also called "Bretton Woods system".
The Bretton Woods system is simply: the dollar is linked to gold, and as an international currency, 35 dollars can be exchanged for an ounce of gold; The currencies of other countries are pegged to the US dollar.
In this way, gold and the dollar are tightly tied together, and the dollar becomes the shadow of gold, and how many dollars can be issued as much as there is gold. However, as we said in the third chapter, how much money is needed depends on the number of goods that need to be traded in this currency, so something magical happened. Because the amount of gold is limited, the amount of dollars issued is far from the total demand of market transactions.
So what should we do? The American way is to fuck you. When the dollar is not enough, it is printed, so more and more dollars are circulating in the market. With more and more dollars printed, many countries can't sit still. "When you start the printing press, you will change our cheap things. Why don't you use a piece of paper to trick the ghost? Do you have that much gold in America? What if one day this paper doesn't work? " As a result, many countries began to exchange dollars for American gold, and the United States was still very generous. If you exchange them, I will exchange them for you. Who told us to clap our chests at the Bretton Woods meeting? But more and more younger brothers come to exchange gold, and the United States is slowly unable to sit still, and the landlord's family has no surplus food. 197 1 year, President Nixon officially cheated and stopped fulfilling the obligation of foreign governments to exchange dollars for gold. Since then, the dollar has decoupled from gold, and the Bretton Woods system has collapsed.
Gold and dollar hate each other because of love.
After the dollar was decoupled from gold, by chance, the dollar focused on oil. We won't introduce this history in detail. In short, under the hegemony of the United States, oil, as a necessity with a large international trade volume, must be settled in US dollars. In addition, it is not the dollar that is overbearing, but also other currencies in the world that fail to live up to expectations, and no one can compete. Therefore, although the archway erected by the Bretton Woods system is broken everywhere, the US dollar is still the US dollar, and most international trade is still inseparable from it. Without the bondage of gold, release your own dollars and let every dark cloud have a glimmer of hope, America!
Speaking of dollars, let's talk about gold. Since decoupling from the US dollar, there has been a strong negative correlation between gold and the US dollar. The dollar fell and gold rose; The dollar rose and gold fell. In the past few decades, the negative correlation between gold price and US dollar index has exceeded 70% on average.
5. Is Bitcoin digital gold?
This time, bitcoin skyrocketed, which many people think is the attribute of gold. Because the United States prints a lot of money, the world is bound to move toward a weak dollar cycle. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, gold has always been regarded as an anti-inflation asset, and it is indeed the case. Generally speaking, the dollar is strong, gold is weak, the dollar is weak and gold is strong. So this time, many voices say that Bitcoin is digital gold, and the skyrocketing is due to the big release of the US dollar.
I agree that the current bitcoin rise has the property of gold, but is bitcoin really digital gold? I disagree with this sentence.
Gold is the darling of money. Gold knows no borders, regardless of race. Everyone in the world likes gold, and everyone recognizes its value. However, Bitcoin is not. Only people in the currency circle truly recognize the value of bitcoin, and people who speculate in coins just want to make a fortune, which is stupid.
Gold has its commodity attributes, beautiful and precious colors, and is often used in various ornaments, gold necklaces and gold rings. However, Bitcoin has no such value.
The gold market is a global market with strong liquidity. If you have gold, you can't sell it In addition, no individual or consortium has enough funds to control the global gold market, so the price of gold can always truly reflect the actual relationship between supply and demand. However, this is not the case in the bitcoin market. Many countries prohibit bitcoin transactions, and the liquidity of the bitcoin market is also very poor. In many cases, there is no market for Bitcoin. If you have a lot of bitcoin in your hand, it may not be so easy to realize it quickly.
Central banks all over the world have a lot of gold, which can be used to adjust the balance of payments and the international gold price. Governments' attitudes towards gold are also used as value reserves. In case of war or international turmoil, many legal tender may not be able to buy materials in international trade, but gold can certainly. I don't think bitcoin has such a natural property.
Besides, the attitude of governments around the world, China has already banned bitcoin and closed the bitcoin trading market. The US government is also cautious about the cryptocurrency market. Russia is not optimistic about Bitcoin, and South Korea refuses to recognize its legal status. Many governments have warned that virtual digital currency is risky and a tool used by criminals for fraud and money laundering, and warned investors to invest in Bitcoin cautiously. The conclusion is that most governments do not recognize bitcoin's currency status, but as an investment product, we remind everyone to participate cautiously.
The value of bitcoin comes from * * * knowledge, that is, some people think it is valuable, but the coverage of this knowledge is still too small. It is too difficult for Bitcoin to reach everyone's knowledge of gold in every country.
Why do we talk about gold from currency and then compare it with bitcoin one by one? Because I have always believed that blockchain is only a form of bitcoin, and its essence has definitely appeared in the long river of history. Every time I indulge in the madness of the bubble, there are always some people who say that this time is different, but every time I can find a shadow in history. The so-called decentralization, isn't gold decentralized? The so-called scarcity, there are many things that are scarce. /kloc-Isn't tulip popular in Holland in the 0/7th century?
That's right, tulip bulbs. What if I say that Bitcoin is the most similar thing in history? I would definitely say tulip bulbs.
Let's look at their similarities.
1, mysterious story
Tulips were introduced into western Europe from Turkey in the middle of16th century. As tulips are not produced in Holland, this beautiful flower has a mysterious exotic feeling. The eternal Augustus became a masterpiece at that time because of a virus infection and was auctioned at a sky-high price.
2. Some people's understanding of * *
Tulips are extremely expensive because they are introduced to Europe in limited quantities. In Europe, which advocates glitz and luxury, many dignitaries have tulips in their homes to show off to outsiders as ornamental and luxury goods. In the circle of the rich, tulips are a symbol of wealth.
Bitcoin uses blockchain technology. This unprecedented distributed bookkeeping method has made many technical enthusiasts become sincere followers. Bitcoin represents some people's cognition of technology and fashion.
3. Scarcity
Why are tulips scarce? Because the origin of tulip is not in the Netherlands, it takes 7- 15 years from sowing to cultivating a flowering bulb. Or by dividing bulbs after flowering every year, because the cultivation technology was not enough at that time, it was difficult to greatly improve the yield.
We won't say much about the scarcity of bitcoin, which is * * * 2 1 10,000 in total.
4. Speculation mania
At that time, in the Netherlands, people no longer bought tulips for their intrinsic value or ornamental purposes, but hoped that their prices would rise indefinitely and make profits. Tulips have become a stupid game in delivering packages. Many people buy tulips just to sell them when the price is higher.
Today's bitcoin is not. How many people can really realize the value of bitcoin? How many people buy Bitcoin because they really like it? Most people just want to sell when the price is higher and make huge profits.
We talk about investment. What is investment? One kind of investment is machinery and factory equipment, which can generate more cash flow in the future, because they can really create wealth. Even if you invest in equity stocks, behind them are machinery, plant equipment and intellectual property labor, which are assets that can create wealth. One kind of investment is gold and real estate, which can be condensed into wealth and stored.
What does Bitcoin invest in? I don't know yet. The following is a summary of my list, which can be compared if you are interested.
If you want to invest, I suggest investing in something valuable, but you really think it is valuable and really want to have it. Just because of the skyrocketing, you want to buy it at a low price and sell it to the next fool at a high price. If you really think 10 tulip bulbs are worth a house, as long as you really think you can change them. If you really think that the string of digital symbols of Bitcoin is worth $30,000, you can exchange it. Suppose that one day the price of Bitcoin is worthless, you can still like it as it is now.
I think investment must be true love, and you should really feel it is worth it, even if you are rebellious. If you really believe that Bitcoin is like this, even if people all over the world abandon it one day and you still love it, then it is a real investment for you.
Of course, speculation is not shameful, but when speculating, please don't mention your beliefs again. Go to bed. What about love?