Introduction: The anxiety behind the prosperity of new energy vehicles is the dual pressure of policy and market, which forces companies to rapidly upgrade.
Recently, there have been a lot of "oolongs" about new energy.
The first is the issue of whether new energy subsidies will be reduced in 2020.
On January 11, Minister of Industry and Information Technology Miao Wei attended the China Electric Vehicles 100 Forum and stated that in order to stabilize market expectations and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the industry, new energy vehicle subsidies will no longer decline in 2020, and will Promote the introduction of multiple relevant industrial policies.
As soon as the news came out, the circle of friends immediately became excited, and the major car companies were extremely happy. However, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology soon issued an announcement to refute the rumors, saying that this was a slip of the tongue and that the subsidies for new energy vehicles in 2020 were not no longer refundable. The slope will not decline significantly.
"It will not decline significantly" means that it will continue to decline. This is great. It was "joyful" one second, but "cool" the next second.
Secondly, BYD’s “blade battery” has been questioned.
BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu revealed at the China Electric Vehicles 100 Forum that the "blade battery" developed by BYD is a new generation of lithium iron phosphate battery with more than 300 core patents and a volume-to-volume energy density that is more traditional than traditional ones. The battery has been improved by 50%, and the vehicle life can reach more than one million kilometers. It will be installed on the blockbuster flagship model launched in June 2020 for the first time.
As soon as the concept of "blade battery" came out, BYD's stock price reached its daily limit. However, many media questioned BYD's exaggeration of the number of patents. In fact, it was just physical transformation without any battery revolution, and it was a pseudo-innovation.
On the surface, these two events have no direct connection, but on a deeper level, they both reflect the anxiety currently facing China's new energy vehicle industry.
From sales of less than 10,000 vehicles in 2009 to 1.256 million vehicles in 2018, setting a record, and then to 1.206 million vehicles in 2019, a year-on-year decrease of 4%, China’s new energy vehicles have grown rapidly in the past ten years. After experiencing twists and turns, it has now reached an "inflection point", making the industry full of anxiety.
Generally speaking, this anxiety is concentrated in four major aspects, including: accelerated decline of subsidies, unclear market expectations, insufficient technology and intensified international competition.
The first is the anxiety caused by the accelerated decline of subsidies.
Through the implementation of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy, China's new energy vehicle sales quickly jumped to the million level, but to a certain extent this is considered a false prosperity and is attributed to the subsidy policy rather than market demand. promote. In July 2019, subsidies for new energy vehicles were further reduced, and their sales also fell in response. They have declined for five consecutive months, which shows the intensity of the subsidy promotion.
According to the previous new energy vehicle industry plan, the new energy subsidy policy will be completely phased out around 2020. Now, the time has come to 2020, and subsidies for new energy vehicles are facing a complete decline (or at least an accelerated decline), and most companies are not yet ready to completely "wean off", and consumers are also worried about new energy without subsidies. Not being able to afford or use a car is full of anxiety.
The second is the anxiety caused by unclear market expectations.
Although China has become the largest new energy vehicle market in the world, looking back on 2019, the range anxiety of new energy vehicles has not been completely resolved (especially in winter), and Tesla and other new energy vehicles have frequent spontaneous combustion accidents outbreak, safety anxiety has resurfaced, which does not allow consumers to buy with confidence. Coupled with the price challenges brought about by the reduction of subsidy policies, the expectations of the new energy vehicle market are extremely unclear.
Although new energy vehicles have some quality and safety problems, there is no need to talk about them and stop eating because of choking. The popularization of new energy vehicles is ultimately due to a change in concepts. In fact, the proportion of individuals purchasing new energy vehicles has increased significantly in 2019, consumers' confidence and acceptance of new energy vehicles have increased, and infrastructure such as charging piles has also developed rapidly.
The third is the anxiety caused by insufficient core technology.
Compared with the accelerated decline of subsidies and unclear market expectations, the anxiety caused by insufficient core technologies is even more profound.
The development of new energy vehicles requires sufficient scientific research strength and resource allocation, and the establishment of a complete production, sales, service, supply chain and transportation system around it. However, as of now, there is still no breakthrough in the basic theory and core technology of new energy vehicles, and the battle over the pure electric/hybrid route is not over yet. Hydrogen fuel cells have intervened halfway, and the technical route is still uncertain, which will profoundly affect the industry. of sustainable development.
In the long run, new energy vehicles are a development trend, and technology takes time to accumulate. Governments, research institutions, enterprises, universities, etc. need to increase investment and coordinate to develop key technologies such as battery materials and core chips. Only through technological research can we achieve international technological leadership, industrialization and scale.
Finally, I have to talk about the anxiety caused by intensified international competition.
Previously, China's new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly. In addition to being driven by policies, it is also because many multinational brands and joint venture brands have not invested in new energy vehicle products in the Chinese market. Therefore, Chinese new energy vehicle companies have gained It has a high market share and has given birth to many new car-making forces, such as Weilai, Xiaopeng, WM Motor, Ideal, etc.
As subsidies accelerate their decline, joint venture brands have begun to launch new energy vehicle products. Looking at major car companies, Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW have fully announced electrification. Even Toyota, which has always advocated hybrid technology, has officially entered the pure electric vehicle market. Tesla built a wholly-owned factory in Shanghai and will soon put it into production, aiming to 2020. In China's new energy vehicle market after the new year, NIO has no room for price cuts.
Foreign companies are accelerating the electrification process, and competition in the Chinese and foreign new energy vehicle industries is imminent. The anxiety caused by this will "increase day by day" after 2020.
So, the anxiety behind the prosperity of new energy vehicles is the dual pressure of policy and market, which forces companies to rapidly upgrade.
After ten years of vigorous promotion, my country's new energy vehicle production, sales and ownership have ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. To a certain extent, it has achieved lane change and overtaking, and has established a certain first-mover advantage and scale. Advantages have enabled mainstream automobile companies around the world to begin the transition to new energy vehicles, especially pure electric technology routes, with remarkable results.
As we enter 2020, no matter how the new energy vehicle subsidy policy is adjusted, it means that the era of large subsidies for new energy vehicles has passed. The new energy vehicle industry must face the market and meet the challenges.
Combined with the wave of the new four modernizations of automobiles, the century-old automobile industry is on the eve of major changes and reshuffles. Although new energy subsidy policies will continue to decline, incentive policies such as double points and right-of-way will continue to improve. As competition between domestic and foreign car companies intensifies, the market will be reshuffled at an accelerated pace, and the development of my country's new energy vehicle industry will increase in quality and speed.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.