First, the benefits of new energy vehicles are highly certain.
Undoubtedly, among all automobile market segments, new energy vehicles are the most beneficial market segments, and its core factor lies in its certainty, which comes from policy-driven.
Because traditional diesel vehicles consume a lot of fossil energy, with the attention of various countries to environmental protection and energy security, some developed countries have made plans to restrict or terminate diesel vehicles. For example, Germany, France, Britain, Norway, the Netherlands and other countries have introduced timetables to ban the sale of fuel vehicles. According to their plan, the sale of fuel vehicles will be basically banned from 2025 to 2040.
China is also considering this timetable, and some places have already tried it first. For example, Hainan is also preparing to completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030.
These policy dividends will directly promote the development of new energy vehicles. Therefore, promoting "fuel saving" and "replacing oil with electricity" will be the inevitable choice for China's automobile development. In this process, which market segments will benefit? Through the following analysis of the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, we can clearly get the answer.
Second, the new energy automobile industry chain
The upstream industrial chain of new energy vehicles includes four major battery materials (positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm and electrolyte), battery management system (BMS), lithium battery production equipment and motor materials, as well as the upstream iron ore and non-ferrous metal industries. The middle reaches include electronic control, motors, batteries and other parts, and the downstream is the whole vehicle.
Among the internal components of new energy vehicles, "three electricity" (battery, motor and electronic control) constitute the electric powertrain system of new energy vehicles. In the cost composition of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for more than 40%, which is the highest part of new energy vehicles.
Third, the tipping point of the new energy automobile industry
2065438+April 2007, the Medium and Long-term Development Plan of Automobile Industry issued by three ministries and commissions proposed that by 2020, the specific energy of power battery will reach more than 300Wh/kg, and the specific energy of system will reach 260 Wh/kg. Up to now, the average energy density of new energy passenger cars and new energy buses in the catalogue is only 140Wh/kg, and the average energy density of special vehicles is less than 130Wh/kg, which is still far from the target.
Because the energy density of battery system mainly depends on the energy density and matching of anode and cathode materials, the specific capacity of common cathode materials has reached more than 300mAh/g at present, while the specific capacity of common cathode materials is below 200mAh/g, and the gap mainly comes from the cathode materials. Therefore, improving the specific capacity of cathode materials is one of the important means to improve the performance of power batteries at present.
Fourth, there is a huge space for cathode materials.
The cathode material mainly provides lithium ions for the battery, which determines the energy density, life, safety and application fields of the battery. Its cost accounts for 40% of the whole power battery, and it is the core key material of the lithium ion battery.
The commonly used cathode materials in the market mainly include lithium ferrous phosphate, lithium manganate, lithium cobaltate and ternary materials, among which ternary materials are divided into nickel cobalt manganese NCM and nickel cobalt aluminum NCA. Nickel-cobalt-manganese materials are classified according to different proportions of Ni, Co and Mn, mainly including NCM333, NCM523, NCM622 and NCM8 1 1. The higher the nickel content, the greater the specific energy.
According to the statistics of Hi-Tech lithium batteries, in 20 18 years, the shipment of cathode materials of lithium batteries in China reached 27 1 10,000 tons, up 30.4% year-on-year. The output value is 53 1.5 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year, and it is in a high boom cycle.
According to the statistics of Hi-Tech lithium batteries, among the 20137,000 tons (accounting for 50%) of the national shipments of cathode materials, there are 56,000 tons of lithium ferrous phosphate (accounting for 2 1%), 54,000 tons of lithium cobaltate and 25,000 tons of lithium manganate. Recently, ternary materials have replaced lithium ferrous phosphate as the fastest growing cathode material, and the shipment volume is the largest.
Therefore, in the process of promoting automobile consumption in various places, cathode materials show explosive growth in the boom period that directly benefits from the substantial growth of new energy vehicles.
The author believes that in the stalemate stage of Sino-US trade negotiations, domestic demand will continue to expand to resist external unfavorable factors. In this context, domestic demand represented by new energy vehicles will be fully tapped, and listed companies represented by cathode materials will usher in structural opportunities in this process.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) cathode material listed company