Based on several news, you will find that many second-tier power supply manufacturers have begun to show their ambitions and launch a storm on the top of the mountain. As a result, the leading enterprise Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. seems to be getting weaker and weaker.
In terms of installed capacity, the market share of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in China in the first half of 20021was about 49%, which was basically the same as that in the same period last year. Although the leading position is stable, its share once dropped from 65438+53. 1% in October to 43.67% in May. Although it picked up again in June, its obvious position was more or less shaken.
Zhang Xiang, an automotive analyst and researcher at north china university of technology Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center, believes that the current market share of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. is 49%, which is a very abnormal market structure. A reasonable state in the future should be that the market share of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is about 30%, that of BYD, the second largest company, may be 20%, and that of some small suppliers may be 10% or 5%. This is a reasonable market structure.
No longer "tying" contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..
If we pull the time back to 20 18, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is undoubtedly the supplier enterprise that most car companies want to entrust, and there is no one. In order to have a stable supply of battery capacity, SAIC, GAC, Geely and other car companies have established joint ventures with them.
The example of 8 1 1 battery is more convincing. At that time, the main product of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., 8 1 1 battery, was considered by some experts to be in need of improvement in stability and safety, but many mainstream independent brands, including GAC, Geely and SAIC, had a belief bonus and scrambled to choose Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. as the product and vigorously promoted it.
Two years after taking the lead in using the new energy products of 8 1 1 battery, this kind of hot-headed follow-up effect is obviously much less.
Guangzhou Automobile is one of the typical representatives. In fact, in 2020, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. will no longer be the supplier with the highest supporting share of Guangzhou Automobile Aian. In 2020, the main battery supplier of Guangzhou Automobile Ai 'an is AVIC Lithium Battery, with a supporting share of 665,438+0%, surpassing Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..
In 20021year, GAC Aian cooperated with AVIC Lithium Battery to develop a battery technology package similar to the sub-magazine, which can withstand the high temperature of 1400 and improve safety.
Daimler's attitude towards contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has also changed 180 degrees. In 20 18, when seeking battery supply, Daimler gave up BYD and resolutely chose to let Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. enter its own battery supply chain system. At that time, an important background was that Daimler and BYD had a close relationship, and the two sides had just increased their capital by 654.38 billion yuan for the pure electric brand established by the joint venture.
However, in 2020, Daimler defected again. A few months after the release of BYD's "Blade Battery", it was reported that Tim had completed the visit and negotiation of BYD's factory, which was subsequently exposed and confirmed by well-known Korean media.
Although Volkswagen's ID series is still equipped with batteries of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., it is only a matter of time before Volkswagen replaces its ID series with batteries of Guo Xuan Hi-Tech with the acceleration of new production line construction.
Why bind Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.?
If we only rely on Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., it is difficult to ensure normal battery supply. You know, at the end of last year, industry associations predicted that the sales volume of new energy vehicles this year was only 6.5438+0.3 million. Results In the first half of this year, the sales volume has reached 6.5438+0.2 million. At such a high growth rate, the production capacity of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is far from enough.
In fact, there have been more and more cases, the model is not contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., and limited batteries have become popular. For example, Hong Guang MINI EV, an explosive model equipped with AVIC lithium battery LFP, has been ranked first in new energy vehicle sales for 1 1 month. BYD Korea EV equipped with "Blade Battery" has sold more than 8,000 vehicles for four consecutive months, and the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 65,438+10,000 vehicles.
The choice of wind vane enterprise Tesla is more telling. Tesla's turn, on the one hand, shows that car companies are increasingly choosing multi-supplier models in order to provide insurance and obtain reasonable purchase prices.
On the other hand, it also shows that with the maturity of battery technology in the industry, the deep binding of a leading enterprise has lost its logical foundation. Moreover, the cost of BYD blade battery is 0.42 yuan /Wh, and the composition cost of CTP lithium iron phosphate battery of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. is 0.57 yuan /Wh. In terms of price, there is really no need to bind Ningde.
If Tesla gives BYD some orders, the impact on Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. can be seen. Since holding hands with Tesla, Tesla has become the largest passenger car customer of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. In the first half of 20021,the total installed capacity of passenger cars of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. was 22.72GWh, of which Tesla contributed about 6.06GWh.
Once BYD confirms to divide the "cake", the market share of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is likely to face a negative impact.
Battle for share
BYD quickly climbed to the top, car companies began to support second-and third-tier battery factories, and foreign battery companies accelerated their attacks after the "white list" was cancelled ... As a leading company with sustained and rapid growth in performance, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. could not fail to notice these industry changes.
Judging from the actions of contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. this year, it is obvious that it has made a lot of efforts to keep its share.
Production capacity is one direction.
In fact, if Tesla brings BYD into the supply chain, it is not difficult to guess that production capacity should be its biggest consideration. In February of this year, Tesla CEO Musk shouted to suppliers: "We don't want to force them to close, just hope that they can increase production."
In order to increase the production capacity, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. has invested nearly 80 billion yuan to expand the power battery production capacity in the past six months. At present, the planned production capacity of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. under construction exceeds 450GWh, which is more than six times that of the national power battery production in the first half of this year.
With the existing capacity and planned capacity leading the industry, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also attaches great importance to strengthening the control of upstream suppliers.
In April this year, after the upstream and downstream investment in domestic and overseas industrial chains last year did not exceed 654.38+09 billion yuan, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. announced again that it plans to continue to invest in listed companies in domestic and overseas industrial chains in the form of securities investment in the coming year, with a total investment of no more than 654.38+09 billion yuan.
"Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. purchased a large number of battery adhesives in the first half of the year, so that other domestic manufacturers have to wait at least one month to get the goods." Insiders of a lithium battery company have disclosed this information. As can be seen from this detail, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. intentionally or unintentionally wants to use its capacity expansion behavior to compress the living space of small enterprises.
Beyond production capacity, technology is another direction.
In fact, the obvious increase in the installed capacity of many second-tier power supply manufacturers benefited from the resurgence of lithium iron phosphate batteries launched in June last year at 5438+ 10.
With the leading CTP(cell to pack) technology, contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. also has its unique advantages in the field of lithium iron phosphate batteries, but this advantage does not seem to be as unrepeatable as the original "ternary lithium battery" technology. For example, BYD, Honeycomb and AVIC lithium batteries have successively released their CTP technologies.
If Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. wants to maintain its advantages, the indispensable action is to prevent other enterprises from "copying all their homework". At the end of July, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. sued AVIC lithium battery for patent infringement. Judging from the technical routes of the two companies, the lithium battery technologies of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and AVIC belong to the field of square shell batteries, and customers do overlap, such as Guangzhou Automobile Aian.
In addition to defending the exclusive patent, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is also exploring another potential new technology direction-sodium ion battery. Some people think that once the industrial chain of sodium ion batteries is mature, national cars like Hong Guang MINI or other electric vehicles with low energy density requirements are likely to be taken away by sodium ion batteries of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..
Another direction may be to try innovative models. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. chose to try the separation of vehicle and electricity to avoid the risk caused by the frustration of technical route.
In 2020, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. has established a joint venture battery asset company with Weilai Automobile, and made efforts to separate the battery operation mode. Through the operation of vehicle-electric separation mode, the car experience of new energy owners will be further improved, and the popularization rate of new energy vehicles will be further increased.
Let's talk about it finally.
Up to now, the market value of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is as high as 1.2 trillion, which is 1.5 times that of China Petroleum, so it can be said that the scenery is infinite. But contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also needs to show its high growth rate to the capital market. If Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is no longer the first choice, will its high growth rate be a high probability event?
Obviously, this is a sunny day full of hope and traps.