How to solve the anxiety of automobile cruising range has been a controversial topic for many years, and there is no unified conclusion so far. The mainstream view is that charging is reasonable, and a few views think that changing electricity is feasible. But looking at the new energy automobile giants or traditional automobile companies, it seems that the focus is on charging, such as BYD. Why doesn't this car company consider developing power exchange? After all, some niche brands have successfully attracted attention by changing power stations.
There should be three reasons:
The sales volume of BYD's new energy vehicles has been rising steadily.165438+1October has exceeded 90,000 vehicles, and the sales volume is equivalent to the same period of "Weilai Tucki Ideal AEON Geometry". Now BYD doesn't need any eye-catching marketing. The urgent problem is how to speed up the improvement of production capacity. The fact that it is too much to just define the exchange of power as conspicuous seems to be attracting people's attention.
Still taking BYD as a reference, the brand's new energy vehicle ownership exceeded one million at 202 1. How many battery packs do I need to prepare to change power stations? It always seems to be more than the number of vehicles. As for several times more, it is not easy to evaluate. Assuming that the average capacity of each battery pack is 50kwh (excluding PHEV), 654.38+00,000 vehicles are 50000000kwh…… ................. According to the average price of lithium ternary and lithium ferrous phosphate, tens of billions are gone. What is this concept? R&D car companies like BYD sell more cars, but they don't earn much. It is expected that BYD's net profit purchase for more than ten years will be invested in the construction of power exchange stations.
However, this is only the cost of the battery. As long as the power station is built and replaced, it is "rain and dew are all wet", that is, power stations will be built in hundreds of cities and 2000 counties and districts across the country; Land cost, equipment cost, labor cost, training cost, risk cost, etc. Add up to some astronomical figures. Therefore, the more brands, the more difficult it is to change electricity, and it is unrealistic to expect third-party capital to build power stations.
For users of electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, the original intention of choosing a car includes high performance and ideal driving quality, but the low cost of using a car also has a great weight; The cost of commuting by charging is very low, especially the cost of self-built piles, because users of new energy vehicles can apply for special on-board meters in the power sector, and the low-valley electricity is only over 30 cents, and the peak electricity is only over 60 cents, which is not as good as the ladder electricity price. The commuting cost of a vehicle can be as low as a few cents a kilometer, and a B/C class car with air conditioning is only a dime.
Then, if the power station is to be accepted, the use cost must be equivalent to charging, and the highest can only be equivalent to public charging stations, that is, charging and replacing electricity at most 50 to 60 yuan; From tens of millions to hundreds of millions of comprehensive power stations, when can the cost be recovered by such a power exchange standard? No capital will be interested in this exaggerated cycle, so it is better to fry something.
To sum up, the construction cost of power station is too high, and the possibility of popularization is slim; This model is more suitable for commercial vehicles, such as buses, muck trucks, commercial concrete vehicles, fire engines, rescue vehicles and so on. After all, the number of such vehicles is small, and the models and brands can be highly consistent.
As for ordinary passenger cars, it is better to use charging piles stably. At present, there are more than 6 million new energy vehicles, which will increase exponentially in the next few years. Eventually, hundreds of millions of cars will be replaced. How many power stations can meet the demand of so many cars? The investment will definitely be astronomical! The key point is to accelerate the popularization of charging piles with the "one investment and one investment" of power station construction cost. It is estimated that the density of the charging pile will be greater than that of the lamppost, and there will be no anxiety when charging in the future.
Published by Tianhe MCN, all rights reserved.
With the continuous progress of battery technology, the cruising range is getting bigger and bigger, and the charging facilities are constantly improving, especially for those who can charge in their own homes and drive thousands of kilometers at a time, what's the use of changing electricity? I believe this goal is not difficult to achieve. Changing power stations will inevitably require a lot of manpower, space and equipment investment. The cost of electricity is bound to be higher than that of family-owned and public charging piles. Investing in power stations today will eventually close down in the future.
If the relevant national regulatory authorities do not have operational detailed standards and institutional constraints, there will be many problems when changing electricity, which will damage consumers' rights and interests.
The power exchange merchants have invested heavily, which is definitely good for the majority of car owners! ! !
The future pure electric mode should be fixed battery plus extended range battery. The extended-range battery pack forms a unified mode, which is matched at various charging stations or convenience stores, and has a battery life of 30 100 km. In this way, whether charging or changing electricity, the vehicle can have a variety of choices.
You don't understand. It's not that you didn't respond. Now the battery is limiting the production capacity, how to change the electricity?
Electrified, intelligent, networked and driverless cars are the way out for China automobile industry.