Humor writer Mark Twain
Please guess which country it is according to the following hints: it is the richest country in the world, with the highest living standard, the largest army and the most advanced education system. She is a global commercial and financial center, and also a creative place where new inventions gather. Her currency is an international standard.
The answer is: Great Britain.
Actually, we misled you a little. More specifically, the answer is 1900 British Empire.
Even in the recent 1922, the British Empire was still the largest known empire in the world. It covers an area of 6.5438+02.7 million square miles (33 million square kilometers), which is roughly equivalent to a quarter of the whole land area of the earth. The population is 456 million, accounting for a quarter of the world population.
At that time, no one could have imagined how the world would change in a short period of 100 years, and no one could have foreseen the flow and direction of world power: the United States rose to dominate the world as a superpower; The Soviet Union experienced rise and decline; Now the powerful China is beginning to pose a threat to American hegemony. Now many people know nothing about Britain's hegemony in the global structure.
Of course, it's hard to predict, especially about the future of superpowers.
Very deep
Still, people dare to predict. Let's go back to the era of the British Empire and make a short stop to see the horse manure crisis of 1894.
Please imagine London in 1894: the largest city in the world, a bustling metropolis, a dense population and a world trade center. Traffic is the lifeline of this city. In the19th century, horses were synonymous with transportation, and this situation lasted for thousands of years. Almost all the finished products are transported by Malays. Without horses, no big city can run.
As a result, from 65438 to 0894, thousands of horses lived in London. According to calculation, each horse consumes 5 mu of cultivated land crops every day. At the same time, each horse produces 15 to 35 pounds of feces every day.
This is not just a problem, but a crisis. Horse manure has accumulated on every street in London, which has reached an unbearable level. These horse manure polluted the environment and attracted millions of flies. These flies spread deadly diseases, such as typhoid. The stench of feces is disgusting. What is even more unimaginable is that the rain has changed these excreta.
The prosperity of horses has also caused other problems: road congestion (because horses run slowly), traffic accidents (horses are easily frightened when crowded), cruelty to animals, and the demand for land to raise them has soared.
Scientists and politicians are worried about how to deal with this problem. Before any solution was found, a town planning meeting on the bill went bankrupt. It is in this situation that The Times dared to predict in 1894 that by 1950, every street in London would be piled with nine feet of horse manure. Of course, London is not the only modern city experiencing horse manure nightmares. Another prophet also warned that new york would be flooded by three floors of animal manure at 1930.
However, it is hard to predict, especially about the future of horse manure.
An era of great change
The fact is that no one knows what the future will be like. It is always easy for people to focus on a single trend, development or an accident, and then rush to a wrong conclusion. But one day, people can even smell the changes in the air. And we live in such an era.
This is the impression we got after interviewing hundreds of business leaders, scholars, colleagues and customers. They all think that in the future, the way we trade and lead will be completely different from now. This is an idea hatched by tens of millions of experiences, observations and trends. All this makes us feel that we are in an era of profound change. And the following are all involved in the creation of this concept:
Some unexpected places in the world are experiencing rapid economic growth, while the old economies are experiencing recession. China is overtaking the United States as the largest economy in the world.
Nanotechnology and biotechnology are developing rapidly in ways that most people cannot understand.
Today's younger generation can wander freely in the virtual world and the real world, looking forward to taking care of their "Facebook" while working.
Employees began to pay attention to the quality of life and income. People with real talent and learning can change jobs according to their own wishes. Top managers in Brazil, Russia and China earn much more than their German, British and American colleagues. Companies are eager to find young talents, but the working years of old employees have been extended to 60, 70 or even 80 years old.
……
20/KLOC-At the beginning of 0/3, the iconic symbol of London-the former World Trade Center-was taken away by China. Manganese Bronze, a company famous for making black taxis in London, was also acquired by Geely, a car manufacturer in China (we will talk about Geely in the first chapter). In fact, a few months after the bankruptcy of Manganese Bronze, Geely came forward to be its savior.
The acquisition of manganese bronze symbolizes the change of an era. China buyers saved the last British automobile manufacturing company, and this acquisition was not regarded as a national disaster. On the contrary, the acquisition was warmly welcomed by Boris Johnson, mayor of London. He claimed that he was "very happy" because Geely ensured the future of the company.
We also feel that change is under our feet. A few weeks ago, we studied a private equity transaction. As part of our research, we interviewed a financial executive. She told us that in the past two years, she only worked three days a week and spent the rest of her time running her young family. Investors were only a little surprised and not worried when they learned about it. However, ten years ago, it was unthinkable for an executive to work only three days a week. Now this is no longer a fuss.
The head of the European region of an international financial services company recently complained to us that they could not find the best talents. They can't find it, not because the top talents didn't apply, but because "they expect a high salary but don't want to work as long as they did ten years ago."
In addition, a new employee told us when signing the employee contract that he planned to take paternity leave in a few weeks. Another applicant asked about our company's carbon emission policy.
We have witnessed countless senior managers in emerging markets give up their careers in western countries and decide to return to their home countries, such as India, China and Indonesia, to serve local companies. Meanwhile, Anshu Jain, an Indian who can hardly speak German, became the co-CEO of German financial giant Deutsche Bank in 20 12.
What we want to tell the leaders and colleagues of Heyi Group is that all these points to the same conclusion: the air is already filled with the breath of change. However, it is still difficult to grasp the clues and know exactly what is changing, how, why and what the future will look like.
Figure 1- 1 survey process of this book
1. Determine the research methods and conceptual framework.
2. Confirm the current general trend.
3. Choose the most influential megatrends
Study business leaders
5. Analyze each megatrend and its significance.
6. Analyze the comprehensive effects of six major trends.
Infer the result
8. How should leaders react?
This encourages us to dig deeper. We ask ourselves: What is changing? What immediate and long-term impact will this have on the company and its leaders? How will it affect the leadership style of leaders? What will the concept of leadership look like in 2030?
We don't know whether it is possible to find the main driving force of change. How do we systematically analyze these driving forces and their influences? Figure 1- 1 shows our whole research process.
The benefits of foresight
The answer lies in prospective analysis (we also call it future research). Prospective analysis is very popular now. It is an interdisciplinary scientific research, mainly used in sociology. Strict standards of other disciplines are also applicable to prospective analysis, including relevance, logical consistency, conciseness, premise clarity, narration and presupposition, and practical value.
After we decided to use forward-looking analysis, we immediately set out to find a suitable conceptual framework to explore these questions we wanted to answer. We started this work three years ago. After extensive investigation, we found that the best way to analyze the current changes is to determine the general trend that is forming in the global society.
The concept of "megatrends" was first put forward by john Naisbitt in his book "Megatrends" in 1982. It is important to understand the true meaning of "megatrends". It doesn't mean short-term trends, such as fashion trends in clothing industry and fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) industry. Generally, the life cycle is very short, which is naturally local. The megatrend is a long-term process of global change, with wide scope and far-reaching influence.
More specifically, "megatrends" should include three dimensions: time, scope and impact. Please see figure 1-2.
Figure 1-2 Three Dimensions of "Megatrends"
Time: The megatrend will be observed for several decades, and it is likely to continue for at least 15 years in the future.
Coverage: Megatrends should affect all regions and stakeholders, including governments, individuals and business groups.
Impact: Megatrends fundamentally change policies, society and economy.
At the beginning of the analysis, we will interview some company leaders who work with us and ask them how they feel about the changes driven by global megatrends. To this end, we need to recruit an investigation team to help us. We chose our research partner Z_punkt, a German prospective analysis company, which is regarded as a leader in the field of long-term prospective analysis in Europe.
We cooperated with Z_punkt to anchor about 20 megatrends. All these megatrends are often cited by academic literature and highly reliable research, and are considered to have a significant impact on society and economy. After careful study, we have extracted six major trends, which are and will continue to create great changes in the business environment.
The lock-in of the six major trends brings us to the next stage of research: interviewing business leaders and collecting their views and opinions on these six major trends. We retrieved the opinions of thousands of employees from all over the world on their corporate leadership from the database of Heyi Group, and then we analyzed these opinions. We also held hundreds of informal talks with business leaders and scholars on the topic of megatrends. We also participated in dozens of lectures and lectures, and even went to the production workshop of the factory for a field trip to discuss the general trend. In addition, we have studied and analyzed hundreds of articles and research reports on each megatrend.
We analyze these six trends one by one. This enables us to understand the cause and effect of each megatrend in great detail from three levels: business environment, enterprise organization, leaders and their teams. In this book, we mainly focus on the influence of megatrends on leaders.
The next stage is to analyze the six trends as a whole: what are their similarities? Do they cross? To what extent are they mutually reinforcing or contradictory? How did this reinforcement or contradiction come about? And what impact will these megatrends have together?
The above work makes us have a great discovery: not only does every major trend have a great influence on business leaders, but it will bring five "strengthening effects" as a whole, and it will also bring four dilemmas, which will make the future life of leaders even more difficult.
Finally, on the basis of comprehensive analysis, we draw a conclusion and tell leaders how to survive and develop in this world shaped by megatrends.
What the future looks like.
Although it is difficult to predict, we still dare to make predictions. In this book, we predict the changes, challenges and environment that leaders will face in the future, which are shaped by six major trends, and the qualities they must have to cope with the new situation.
However, we should look at things comprehensively and correctly. Our goal is not to speculate on the accurate data of the future-when there is more and more horse manure piled up in the street, people have already done so, which is simply challenging the impossible.
We don't have a crystal ball, so we won't try to make the future look convincing, which is also challenging the impossible. We don't know whether the phenomenon of "black swan" will happen. What is the "black swan" phenomenon? "Black swan" refers to the far-reaching influence of some unpredictable and extremely destructive events, which may change the course of the world and the direction of one or more megatrends at an extremely fast speed. The recent financial crisis, changes in Eastern Europe, the birth of the Internet and a world war are all excellent examples.
We are just trying to outline the future. What this book really tries to do is to detect early signs of long-term fundamental changes, and then analyze them and draw conclusions.
In some ways, this is a counterintuitive attempt, because humans often don't question the world they live in. Have we ever thought about the complex normal we have built for ourselves, but what we think is not so absolute? We just repeat what we know about everyday life. Without thinking, we accept our physical environment, social structure, social norms, universal values and belief system, which give us identity, attributes and significance. If we question all these questions at the same time, we will put ourselves under unbearable psychological and emotional pressure.
So we live and take everything for granted. We believe that the earth is round. When the sun rises in the morning and sets at night, there is always oxygen for us to breathe. We feel that the building where we work should stand there and wait for our arrival every day. We also fully believe that the United States is the most powerful superpower in the world (or at least until recently we thought so).
1900, people thought that the British Empire was the master of the world. And there is no doubt that horses are the main means of transportation, and people have to put up with horse manure, and there is no other way out.
But relying too much on the world as we know it will produce inertia. Always accepting what is universally recognized will make us unwilling to perceive and accept change, and even when change is imminent, we may choose to ignore it. This is understandable, but it will blind us and make us realize that we need to adapt to these changes, which is inevitable.
1907 this blind acceptance of existing things led the American national teachers association to think that "students nowadays rely too much on pens." They don't know how to sharpen pencils with a pencil sharpener. But pens and ink can never replace pencils. "
It was difficult to predict at that time, especially about the future of pencils.
Excessive dependence on the known world has also blinded our eyes on the issue of horse manure. In fact, by 1894, internal combustion engines have existed for nearly 30 years. It experienced a series of improvements in11990s. The most significant improvement occurred in 1886. karl benz applied for a patent for his motorcycle and put it into production in 1894. Another major leap is the use of asphalt. Since about 1870, asphalt has been widely used to pave flat roads in the United States.
As a means of transportation, horses are destined to become history. However, outstanding scientists, politicians and urban planners at that time did not see the changes around them when they got together to deal with the horse manure crisis. For them, horses and horse manure are the status quo they have to deal with.
About this book
This book first analyzes the grim reality caused by each megatrend and examines the influence of each megatrend on leaders. Then we discussed the possible consequences of all six trends and how leaders should respond.
We have listed six major trends in Figure 1-3:
1. Globalization 2. A brand-new financial world pattern is taking shape. Power is shifting from "established economies" to fast-growing markets in Asia (especially China). A new middle class has emerged in emerging markets. The highly localized market is full of vitality, and opportunities will be everywhere, but there are also threats.
2. Environmental crisis. Important natural resources are becoming scarcer and scarcer, and the climate is becoming more and more threatening due to human activities. Faced with soaring costs and pressure from society and market, leaders will fundamentally reconsider their business strategies, otherwise their companies will lose competitiveness.
3. Individualization and diversification of values. The growing wealth of emerging markets will promote the individualization of ideas in more parts of the world. People will expect their personal needs to be met, and both customers and employees will have such requirements. This will create a lot of opportunities for customers to customize products or services, and the demand for employees will also be diversified, requiring enterprises to become more sensitive and responsive.
4. The digital age. It seems to be a normal state that life and work cannot be separated from digital technology. Digital platforms have shifted power from enterprises to customers and employees-especially young "digital aborigines"-and are melting the old-fashioned dividing line between private life and work. This has triggered unprecedented transparency, making leaders have to face the public sincerely, or they will have to ride a roller coaster to see their credibility.
5. Changes in population structure. The rapid aging of the world population will not only change the market, but also put great pressure on the social structure and welfare system. This will lead to the shrinking of the global labor force, and a war of grabbing talents will break out between enterprises. The battlefield of this war will be unprecedented. Leaders will have to face the reality that the age groups of the labor force continue to divide and mix, and there are still huge differences in attitudes and requirements of the labor force in each age group.
6. Integration of science and technology. The progress of nanotechnology and biotechnology will change our lives in all aspects. The biggest change comes from the combination of these technologies. This wave of innovation will create an unknown new product market, and at the same time push enterprises to the forefront, prompting them to cooperate closely with competitors to complete complex R&D projects. D program
When we are studying the general trend and writing this book, we should try our best to look at the problem from the overall perspective. After all, megatrends are about the whole world, and we are studying the impact of these megatrends on large global enterprises.
However, one of us is German and the other is Canadian. Our nationality, background, culture and social education are inevitably western-style. Therefore, to some extent, we will inevitably look at these problems from the perspective of westerners, with the thinking mode and thinking process of westerners.
to be continued
As the Greek philosopher Heraclitus said, change is the norm: no one can step into the same river twice. The megatrend is like the river in Heraclitus, which is always in a state of constant flow. When we wrote this book, when you read this book, the general trend has been developing. However, because their influence will take some time to show, we can confidently predict their influence in the next 50 years.
However, our research did not stop because of the completion of this book. If you want to participate in our follow-up research on megatrends to understand how they will affect your business and leaders, you can visit www.haygroup.com/leadership2030/., you can fill out the questionnaire of this book, find other rich materials related to this research, and even write down your thoughts after reading it. You are also welcome to learn about the trends that have the greatest impact on your business, and then think about how you will respond.