Through the financial reports and conference calls of 65,438+00 companies, including five IDM manufacturers of Infineon, NXP, stmicroelectronics, Texas Instruments and Renesas Electronics, three wafer foundries of TSMC, Singer and SMIC, and two equipment manufacturers of ASML and LAM Research, the Journal of Science and Technology Innovation Committee combed their overall judgments on the industry trends in 2022.
Generally speaking, although the doubt that "lack of core is coming to an end" has shrouded the market for a long time, from the attitude of many manufacturers, the current inventory level is still far below expectations, and it is still difficult for the industrial chain to get rid of the situation of short supply.
There are different answers to the specific end time when the chip is in short supply. Optimists such as Infineon believe that this year is expected to bid farewell to the chip shortage; NXP, on the other hand, gave a completely opposite opinion, saying that it is difficult to complete this year.
ASML believes that there is no need to worry about the reversal of supply and demand, and points out that the growth prospects of semiconductors really need to be greatly expanded; At the same time, the industry itself will strive to avoid oversupply in order to "maintain a barrier-free and efficient innovation ecosystem."
On the other hand, the news of "demand differentiation" has been further demonstrated. Wafer foundries such as TSMC have made the judgment that "there are differences in prosperity and different needs in different application fields"; SMIC also pointed out that regional demand will also be divided.
The downstream demand is extremely strong, and many enterprises hold large orders, which is much higher than the capacity planning level. In the field of segmentation, automotive chips have become a consistently optimistic field for major manufacturers.
Overall order situation
Some manufacturers disclosed the specific amount of orders/prepayments currently on hand. From the optimistic expressions such as "high visibility of orders" and "orders far exceed supply", it is not difficult to see that the grand occasion of high demand remains the same.
Infineon:
The number of newly signed orders greatly exceeds the number of cancelled orders. However, the company also warned that some orders may be intended to prevent shortages, so with the improvement of supply and the cancellation of repeated orders, the amount of this order may drop sharply in the next few quarters.
NXP:
Orders in hand have far exceeded the supply capacity, and visibility has reached 2023-2024. At present, "there is no order cancellation or rescheduling".
Stmicroelectronics:
The visibility of orders is high, with orders in hand exceeding the level of1August, far higher than the planned production capacity of the company at present and in 2022.
Renesas Electronics:
By the end of 20021,the company's orders in hand exceeded 1.2 trillion yen; Confirmed orders are also growing in 2022.
TSMC:
By the end of 20021,the advance payment of 6.7 billion dollars had been received. Overall, orders for IC design and IDM outsourcing have increased, and "wafer foundry will be a good year this year".
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? NXP:
In Q4 of 202 1, the inventory water level further decreased; The water level of channel inventory also decreased slightly to 1.5 months. NXP predicts that the supply and demand situation in 2022 will be similar to 202 1.
? Texas Instruments:
In Q4 of 202 1, the stock water level of Germany and Italy was 1 16 days, which was about 4 days higher than that of the previous quarter, but still lower than the target of the company 130- 190 days.
Automobile chip
Among the 65,438+00 enterprises counted this time, all other enterprises except equipment manufacturers have shown strong confidence in the growth of automobile business.
On the whole, in 20021year, the income of semiconductor manufacturers' automobile chip business increased significantly, and new orders were obtained in 2022. In the future, electrification and intelligence are still the two main growth lines of this market: in terms of electric vehicles, the driving factors include charging infrastructure and power battery power management chips; Intelligent driving includes L2+/L3 intelligent driving development and 4D imaging radar.
? Infineon:
The demand for automobile chips "far exceeds" the company's supply capacity, and the inventory water level is also seriously lower than the normal level. It is worth noting that Infineon pointed out that in addition to electric/smart cars themselves, charging infrastructure is another major driving force for demand growth.
? NXP:
Thanks to the development of electric vehicles and L2+/L3 intelligent driving, the stability of orders in the automotive field has been significantly enhanced, and the company has orders in hand in 2022. It is worth noting that as long as the shortage of chips continues, OEMs will give priority to chip supply and their own production capacity to high-end models in order to obtain higher profits.
? Stmicroelectronics:
The production capacity of automobile chips has been sold out this year. It is estimated that 85% of automobile chips will fall into 16nm- 19nm process in the future.
? Texas Instruments:
In 20021the whole year, industry and automobile will be the "strategic focus" of TI's future development.
? Renesas Electronics:
The business growth momentum in the automotive field is strong, including the increase in the number of related chips such as automotive MCU, the increase in product prices, the resumption of production in automobile factories, and ensuring inventory.
? TSMC:
It is estimated that in 2022, the growth of automobile business will be higher than the overall level of the company.
? Grid core:
It is expected that the automobile business will fluctuate quarterly this year, but overall, it is still very optimistic about the strong growth potential of terminal demand; Some customers will start to make efforts in 4D imaging radar and power battery power management in 2023, and Singh is expected to benefit.
? SMIC:
Incremental markets such as Internet of Things, electric vehicles and mid-to-high-end analog ic are in strong demand, and there is a structural capacity gap.
Surplus business
Except for automobile chips, other growth points mentioned are scattered. Among them, the demand in the fields of industry and Internet of Things is mentioned relatively frequently, and infrastructure, data center, AI, Hyperuniverse and silicon carbide are also favored by some enterprises. However, most manufacturers expect the demand for consumer electronic products to be further weak.
? Infineon:
This year, the revenue of SiC business will double to 300 million euros, and the demand in this field is obviously higher than the existing production capacity.
? Renesas Electronics:
The demand for industry/infrastructure/Internet of Things is also high, but Renesas predicts that the growth rate of revenue and customer demand of Q 1 this year will be lower than that of automobile chips.
? Grid core:
In the smart mobile terminal market, the application requirements of Wi-Fi 6, 5G image sensors and power supplies; Market demand of communication infrastructure and data center; The Internet of Things is expected to become Singh's fastest growing business field in 2022.
? TSMC:
In subdividing the application market, the strong momentum of some markets may slow down or adjust. It is estimated that in 2022, the growth of HPC and automobile business will be higher than the overall level of the company, the growth rate of Internet of Things will be consistent with the company's level, and the smart phone business will be slightly lower than the company's level.
? SMIC:
The mobile phone and consumer electronics markets lack development momentum, and the supply and demand of the stock market are gradually balanced; Incremental markets such as Internet of Things, electric vehicles and mid-to-high-end analog ic are in strong demand, and there is a structural capacity gap.
? Forest research (Pan-forest/Colin research and development)
Artificial intelligence, Internet of Things, cloud computing, 5G and metauniverse will become strong growth drivers, and it is expected that the demand for wafer equipment will continue to grow throughout the year.