I won't dwell on the history of e-books here, but we can pay attention to several historical turning points: in 2007, Amazon launched an e-ink reader, and e-commerce has extraordinary development potential. The popularity of Kindle makes e-books a consumption trend, especially for narrative texts. The question now is whether the popularity of tablet computers will herald a similar trend, whether it will bring about a qualitative change in e-book consumption, or just a quantitative change in its development process.
Development trend of e-book application
More and more studies have confirmed that e-book reading has gradually replaced paper reading, especially in the United States. 20 12 In February, Pew Research Center found that 23% of Americans over the age of 16 read e-books last year, compared with 16% the year before. During the same period, the reading share of printed books in the United States dropped from 72% to 67%. The digitization of adult books is more obvious. According to the data of Book Stats, from 20 10 to 20 1 1, the proportion of e-book revenue of adult books in the total revenue of publishing houses increased from 13% to 30%. Of course, the price is that the income of paper books in the mass market has dropped from 33% to 24% in the same period. Others, such as minors' book trade, also show a trend of increasing e-books and decreasing paper books. With the popularity of e-readers, this phenomenon will become more and more common.
However, the adoption of e-books in higher education takes a completely different route from popular books. Steve Paxhia, an industry analyst at Lighthouse Digital Strategy, pointed out that traditional educational publishers who used to sell paper content at high prices did not change because they sold electronic versions of paper content, but further provided interactive learning systems. "By shifting the focus to the integrated learning system, publishers can provide paper and e-learning content at a relatively low price. Traditional publishers do not have this advantage. " Paxhia co-authored the Semi-annual Report of Book Industry Research Group (BISG), which recorded the interaction of students in printed books and digital courses in detail.
Consumer mentality
Since 2009, BISG has also been reporting consumers' e-book reading and buying behavior. The report shows that the use of portable devices will continue to affect the adoption of e-books. Just as Amazon successfully promoted the reading of narrative novels by combining special e-readers with e-commerce, other electronic devices also adopted e-book format to promote the growth of non-fiction texts. From the beginning of 20 10 to the middle of 20 1 1 0, dedicated e-readers replaced PCs as the most popular e-reading equipment. However, the subsequent rise of tablet computers (mainly led by Amazon's Kindle Fire) changed this situation. Another report in March showed that the proportion of tablet computers and dedicated readers was 43.9% and 42% respectively. (See table below).
BISG's research also shows which books are most influenced by e-book formats. In the middle of 20 1 1, novels, especially "entertainment" novels (such as mystery novels and romance novels) e-books occupy a dominant position in special e-readers. However, with the rise of tablet computers, the general novel e-books in special e-book readers began to lose, and other types of novel e-books began to become popular in tablet computers (see the table below).
Generally speaking, users who use special e-readers prefer popular novels and mystery/thriller novels, and the selection ratio is 7.4% and 6.4% higher than the average level (63.3% and 62.9%) respectively. Strangely, however, among users who use tablets, the proportion of these two types of novels is slightly lower than the average. On the other hand, among the users who use computers to read e-books, the reading rate of science fiction is 6.8% higher than the average level (44.2%).
BISG's survey of students' attitudes shows that the adoption of numbers in higher education is far from as simple as e-books, but more inclined to adopt integrated learning systems, such as CengageBrain platform of Shengzhi or MyLab system of Pearson. Tablet computers and e-readers, the dominant desktop computers and notebook computers, and the increasingly complex learning environment * * * promote the transformation of educational publishing to a digital direction different from traditional paper publishing.
Another factor that affects the consumption of e-books on tablets is that these new devices are not specially designed for reading, but can do many other things. Research shows that video, audio, games, general web browsing, sending and receiving emails and other activities will affect the reading of e-books, which is more obvious on Apple's iPad and Android tablet than Amazon's Kindle Fire and Barnes & Noble's Nook tablet. Readers are shifting from dedicated e-readers to tablets. More importantly, if readers get used to reading e-books, fewer readers will read and buy paper books.
Reading equipment, demography and the fate of printed books
Compared with ordinary consumers, young, well-educated and economically superior consumers prefer e-books and electronic reading devices. BISG began to study e-books in 2009. At that time, the general situation of e adopters was as follows: male, aged between 30 and 44, with a college degree and an income of between 50,000 and 75,000 dollars. Nowadays, far more women than men read e-books. Of course, the e-book reading rate of other age groups, education level, employment and income groups is not as high as the former, but it is still very high. For example, compared with 20 10, there are more powerful buyers (reading e-books at least once a week) among retired respondents over 55 than 20 10. Although young consumers still dominate the consumption of e-books, the whole market is expanding.
This means that although printed books are still popular in the short term, the audience will gradually shrink. The biggest advantages of printed books-comfort, no technical cost and low cost-will be lost with the reduction of reading equipment cost and the improvement of digital reading comfort experience, so they cannot survive.
In fact, just like vinyl records in the record industry, printed books can find a sustainable market segment to survive or develop based on undefined value proposition. Based on this possibility, many analysts believe that in the long run, printed books are still a kind of mass media for book content.
The above prediction warns us that compared with some defects of e-books, such as technical failure, DRM, and the life of reading software, printed books are still a more open and stable reading and storage medium. In order to completely replace printed books, e-books must meet the needs of future readers, researchers and archivists.
E-book discovery channel
BISG's research shows that Amazon occupies a dominant position in the secondary sales channel of e-books. 73% of the respondents obtained e-books through Amazon, and another 13% obtained e-books through Kindle application. Of course, Amazon is not the only one. Another 265,438+0% respondents obtained e-books through Barnes & Noble's website, followed by public libraries, Apple's iBooks/ iTunes application and a series of other smaller sources of e-books. People mostly buy e-reader applications through Android devices or Apple's IOS Mall to find e-books, such as reading programs such as Google Play Books and Kobo. Except Barnes & Noble Bookstore and some public libraries, people rarely find e-books in physical stores. Some publishers just took advantage of this, and they cooperated with Amazon to make their books appear in Amazon's "new book list". However, publishers are understandably nervous, and they are also trying other book discovery technologies, such as publishers or authors promoting books through social media. But at present, it has not achieved much. Online comments, printed book reviews, recommendations from friends and relatives, free download and trial reading of sample chapters, etc. It is still the most influential factor in e-book purchase.
BISG's investigation on e-book discovery channels focuses on two independent issues, one is the main source of general e-book information, and the other is the specific way respondents most commonly use to obtain and read e-books. Amazon.com has become the highest-ranked general e-book information source with 47.4% share, and the highest-ranked specific e-book discovery source with 25.2% share. Amazon's emails and newsletters are also important sources of e-book information, accounting for 26. 1%. The recommendation from family and friends also ranks high, with the proportion of general information sources and specific discovery sources being 24.4% and 16. 1% respectively. Social network accounts for 15.7% of general book information discovery, while the proportion of specific e-book discovery is only 3.5%. Other secondary sales channels, especially Barnes & Noble and Apple, are good sources of general e-book information, accounting for 14.7% and 10.7% respectively. But they are not the main channels for the discovery of specific books, accounting for only 7.2% and 3.7%. The library should be the main channel for readers to find e-books. However, the differences between publishers and libraries in the pricing and accessibility of e-books hinder the development of this potential. A study in library journal shows that library users often complain that e-books are too small. Future research will try to explore how to break the current deadlock and let customers buy the e-books they want through their libraries. BISG's research also found that among powerful buyers (people who buy e-books every week), the library is the third most popular source of e-books, accounting for 24.9%, only 0.5% behind Barnes & Noble.
On the price issue, e-books have obvious advantages over printed ones. This can be seen in the controversy when Apple tried to implement agency pricing measures. However, this calculation does not consider the total cost. Although the price of dedicated e-readers is rapidly declining, the price of tablet computers (increasingly popular e-book reading devices) is still an obstacle for many consumers to buy. In order to beat paper books, e-books must reduce the price of tablet computers, or the screen of smart phones will become larger but consumers can still afford it. On the surface, the price of e-books is the embodiment of reducing printing cost and distribution cost. That's how consumers see it. In the research of BISG, respondents were asked what the highest acceptable price of e-books was. Many people say that hardcover e-books are up to $30, and e-books in other stores should not exceed 17. They think that the $9 e-book is "value-added" and the 13 e-book is "small but reasonable", but the 18 e-book is "too expensive". From May of 20 12, the proportion of "over-value" and "small but reasonable" gradually increased. This also means that regardless of the format, the public's perception of the book itself is gradually changing.
It should be noted that the content development, editing and marketing costs of paper books and e-books are not much different. The reason why the price of e-books is very low is to cater to the public's expectation that the cost of e-books is excessively underestimated, and the radical strategy adopted by online retailers like Amazon has further lowered the price of e-books. Publishers have simplified internal processes, which in some cases can make up for the lack of profitability caused by the low price of e-books. But in the end, authors and publishers still need to develop new sources of value (including content and marketing), which distributors cannot copy.
Resale dilemma
Another price-related problem is that e-books cannot and should not be resold. Bill Rosenblat, an analyst at GiantSteps Media, pointed out that e-book trading is completely different from paper books. Paper book transaction is a realistic transaction, which requires both buyers and sellers, but the seller does not own the copyright of the content sold. On the contrary, e-book trading is a kind of right use license agreement, which requires the licensee (buyer) and the licensee (seller). Among them, the seller, that is, the publisher and the channel partner, has complete control over the content. According to the policy of the publisher/distributor, if it is a DRM-protected work, it is strictly forbidden to resell or even rent it.
In June 5438+10, Amazon applied for a patent to allow users to resell e-book content, and deleted all local e-book copies of the original users. Rosenblat pointed out that this "digital priority sales" strategy is very problematic. For example, it is quite difficult to delete all local e-book copies from multiple Kindle devices and applications. Although libraries and other rights advocates want to promote more open resale practices, this is obviously impossible in view of the chaotic DRM and proprietary e-book platforms.
Resale will harm the vested interests of publishers, because DRM-protected e-books can prevent the price of e-books from falling further. If Amazon does this, the close relationship between authors and publishers may also be lost. Rosenblat believes that publishers will fight a long lawsuit on this issue.
According to the research of BISG, the resale problem has not yet become the main obstacle to e-book consumption. According to the survey in the past four years, on average, only 13% of the respondents said that "it is illegal to sell e-books after reading" is a big problem, and 17% thought it was only more or less influential. Future surveys will explore how the problem of non-resale affects those who have not started reading e-books because of this.
On the other hand, the resale problem may also involve the secondary market income of authors and publishers, which is impossible in the printed book market. However, due to the technical barriers of such transactions, the exclusive competition of e-book platforms and some short-term strategies of big publishers, resale cannot be implemented in the short term.
conclusion
The biggest obstacle to the adoption of e-books may be the novelty of the media itself and the control of patent technology companies. In many applications and reading devices, we can find at a glance that the electronic reading experience is consistent, and with the passage of time, this electronic reading experience will be further improved, thus attracting a wider audience. Even aggressive companies like Amazon and Apple may succumb to public pressure and the needs of readers and researchers. After all, this demand has not changed since reading appeared.
However, until then, e-books will still be a destructive force for authors, publishers and distributors, and will gradually cultivate readers' digital reading habits. (