Summary:
1. Folding mobile phones: Huawei and Samsung’s folding mobile phones were sold out instantly as soon as they were launched, reflecting the popularity of folding mobile phones. Sales are expected to exceed 1,000 in 2021 million units, and the growth rate is expected to increase. Pay attention to the opportunities in the three main investment lines of flexible OLED, folding panels, PI materials and MIM hinges. BOE A and TCL Technology have the mass production capacity of flexible OLED panels. Dinglong Co., Ltd. is the only company in China that also has PI slurry. As a company with mass production capabilities of PI film and PI film, Dongmu Co., Ltd. is the domestic MIM leader.
2. Guangwei Composite Materials: A leading domestic carbon fiber company, the gross profit margin of core products carbon fiber and fabrics is as high as over 80%. The company's ROE has increased significantly, and its gross profit margin, expense rate, inventory turnover, fixed asset turnover and other financial All indicators have performed well. Net profit increased by 30% in 2019. Institutions are optimistic about its trend in the long term. Well-known domestic private equity has held shares of the company for a long time since the third quarter of 2018.
3. Sinoma Technology: Revenue increased by 19% in 2019, and net profit increased by 48%; the volume and price of the wind power blade business increased. As the rush for installation in the wind power industry continues, the company's performance is expected to rise further. The agency raised its EPS forecast for 20/21 to 0.97/1.15 yuan, from the original value of 0.90/1.03 yuan, and raised the target price to 13.58-15.52 yuan.
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1. The core of folding mobile phones is these three technologies, which increase the value by 3 times. Which domestic manufacturers are participating? (Guojin Securities)
Huawei’s foldable phone Mate It brings three major investment opportunities: flexible OLED, folding panels, PI materials and MIM hinges.
① Flexible OLED: The most valuable part of foldable mobile phones
The most valuable part of foldable mobile phones comes from the display panel. Comparing Samsung Galaxy S 9 and Galaxy Fold, the value of the display panel has increased significantly from US$79 to US$218, an increase of approximately 3 times!
It is estimated that global sales of foldable mobile phones are expected to reach 14 million units in 2021, and the market size of folding mobile phone panels will reach 21.4 billion yuan. By 2023, the market size will further increase to 42 billion yuan.
The world's companies that can achieve mass production of folding mobile phone panels include Samsung, BOE A and TCL Technology, and they are expected to be the first to benefit from this wave of folding mobile phones.
② PI material: The key material to realize the folding of mobile phones
PI material is the key material to realize the playable bending of mobile phones. In the folding mobile phone screen, PI substrate, PI cover, PI base film has been used on a large scale. The current global flexible OLED production capacity is about 37.22 million square meters, and the corresponding demand for PI materials is as high as more than 10 tons. If the average price is 1 million yuan per ton, the market size of PI materials reaches 100 billion yuan. Yuan and above.
At present, Dinglong Co., Ltd. is the only company in China that has the mass production capacity of both PI slurry and PI film. PI materials have been supplied to panel manufacturers such as Shenzhen Tianma.
③ MIM hinge: the hero that supports mobile phones to fold more than 100,000 times
Folding mobile phones require more than 100,000 screen folds. The hinge is the key to realizing this function. Currently, liquid The combination of metal + MIM technology is the best production solution for hinges. The hinge of a folding mobile phone contains hundreds of MIM parts.
The increased volume of foldable mobile phones will further stimulate the growth of the MIM market. By 2021, the domestic MIM market is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan. Dongmu Co., Ltd. is the domestic MIM leader and has entered Huawei's supply chain.
At the same time, Yi'an Technology is also a beneficiary target of Huawei's folding mobile phones, supplying Huawei with liquid metal components in the hinges of folding mobile phones.
④ It is recommended to pay attention to BOE A, TCL Technology, Dinglong Shares, Dongmu Shares, etc.
2. Guangwei Composite Materials: The gross profit margin of carbon fiber products is as high as 80%, and the well-known domestic private equity long-term Shareholding (Soochow Securities)
Guangwei Composite Materials is a leading domestic carbon fiber company. Its products are mainly used in military industry and wind power carbon beams. The gross profit margin of core products carbon fiber and fabrics is as high as over 80%. Institutions believe that the company's comprehensive The governance level is excellent, so we are firmly optimistic about its trend in the long term.
① 4 key indicators drive the company's ROE improvement
Guangwei Composite Materials' forecast error mainly lies in the perception and expectation of profitability. According to the 2019 performance report, the company's ROE is estimated to be 17%, which is significantly improved compared to 2018.
There are four key factors that drive the company's ROE improvement: gross profit margin, expense ratio, inventory turnover, and fixed asset turnover of carbon fiber and fabrics. The increase in ROE mainly comes from the increase in profit margin and turnover rate. The increase in profit margin is due to the significant increase in gross profit margin of the carbon fiber and fabric business and the significant decrease in expense ratio. The increase in turnover rate reflects the improvement in asset utilization efficiency.
② Has scale effect and cost advantage
The scale effect can be clearly seen from the cost structure of the company's carbon fiber products: depreciation and energy costs account for a large proportion are relatively fixed, and the total cost grows slowly. , while revenue is growing rapidly and gross profit margin is getting higher and higher.
The ability to produce self-produced equipment is one of the company's core competitiveness. At present, most of the equipment in the carbon fiber production line is produced by its subsidiary Guangwei Precision Machinery. Self-produced equipment is conducive to extending the service life, and at the same time, depreciation is relatively stable, which reduces the total production cost in the long term.
In the future, the company's production lines will maintain high operating efficiency, and inventory impairment will also be maintained at a low level, further ensuring profitability.
③ Profit forecast and investment suggestions
The company’s net profit in 2019 has maintained a growth rate of more than 30%, and its valuation is significantly lower than other listed companies in the industry.
3. Sinoma Technology: The volume and price of wind turbine blade business have increased, and institutions have raised profit forecasts and target prices (Huatai Securities)
Sinoma Technology’s revenue in 2019 was 13.6 billion yuan. A year-on-year increase of 19%; net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48%; net profit after non-ownership was deducted was 1.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18%; operating cash flow was 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 90%.
① The rush for installation in the wind power industry will continue in 2020, and the volume and price of the wind power blade business will rise
19 The company’s wind power blade business achieved revenue of 5.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51%, and sales volume 7.94GW, a year-on-year increase of 42%. At the same time, the gross profit margin increased from 14% in 2018 to 18.6% in 2019.
The wind power industry has been booming in 2019, and the rush for installation will continue in 2020. The company’s wind power blade business will see both volume and price rise.
② The decline in glass fiber prices drags down profit margins, and the lithium film business turns losses into profits
In 2019, the company's glass fiber business achieved a net profit of 830 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, dragging down profit margins . The lithium film business achieved sales revenue of 350 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 518%, with a net profit of approximately 60 million yuan. Hunan China Lithium’s consolidated revenue contribution was 160 million yuan. In 2020, the lithium film business will usher in a performance release period.
③ The institution raised the company's profit forecast and target price
Raised the EPS forecast for 20/21 to 0.97/1.15 yuan, from the original value of 0.90/1.03 yuan; raised the target price to 13.58-15.52 yuan, the previous value was 10.67-12.25 yuan.