The United States is threatening China with "30 1 big stick" again. This trade bill with strong unilateralism, enacted 43 years ago, actually violates the multilateral trade rules of the World Trade Organization and runs counter to the economic and trade relations that China and the United States have been trying to build. This act of putting American domestic law above international law does not help solve the problem, but is easily understood as a provocative act in economic and trade.
If the United States ignores China's great progress in intellectual property protection in recent years and flagrantly launches the 30 1 survey, then the United States can interpret the rules at will, and China's technology-based enterprises with more business in the United States and those with more contact with American technology companies may be directly affected or even investigated. China's regulations requiring foreign companies to transfer technology to local partners will be the focus of the investigation. This will undoubtedly bring direct damage to the interests of these companies, weaken their confidence in American investment, and have a negative impact on Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Unilateral trade war is irresponsible to the world economy.
There is a huge trade volume between China and the United States, and the healthy development of bilateral economic and trade is the anchor of global economic and trade stability. The United States links economic and trade issues with political issues and even security issues. Once there is a trade dispute between the two largest economies in the world, there will be no winner. Not to mention how much the economies of China and the United States will be affected, and the economies whose supply chains depend on both countries will be affected. From this perspective, if the United States unilaterally launches a trade war, it is undoubtedly irresponsible to all countries in the world.
In particular, the world economy has recovered slowly from the financial turmoil, and the foundation is still not solid, and uncertainty still exists. In this context, if the United States launches a 30 1 investigation on China, this "doing things" behavior may become a "major event" that affects the world economic prospects.
When the "big stick" falls, only * * * is difficult to win.
In addition, the United States itself has benefited a lot from its trade with China. Once this complementary structure is broken by a political-induced trade war, American businesses and consumers will feel pain.
Trump has always adhered to economic nationalism since he took office. Whether he withdraws from TPP or talks about NAFTA again, it has had a great impact on other countries. The internationalization of domestic politics and the commercialization of political issues all indicate that Trump is playing the next big game. But judging from the threat of a trade war against China, he may not be a good chess player, and launching an investigation is far from a coup.
Of course, Trump's instruction to the US Trade Representative to initiate an investigation is only the first step of the procedure, and there is still a long way to go before the 30 1 investigation promise is finally fulfilled. Looking back at history, we can find that it is not the first time that the United States waved "30 1 big stick" at China, but the wielder always knew that when the big stick really fell, it would hurt him at the first time. In addition, China's retaliatory measures will deal a second blow to the machinery, electronics and agricultural products sectors of the United States.
Due to the high economic interdependence between China and the United States, it is generally believed that the probability of a full-scale trade war is not high. For China, it is right to attach importance to tactics and despise strategy. We should be prepared for a patent war or even a trade war with the United States, do not relax some possible communication channels, and continue to strive for a win-win situation. The problem between China and the United States will eventually come back to the negotiating table, which is the way to solve the problem. We don't make trouble, but we are never afraid of things. Only when we are ready can we most likely bring the United States back to the negotiating table.
Trump does things, hoping that it will not become a big deal in the end.