165438+1October 2 1 day, the central bank announced that it would lower the benchmark interest rate. Although this is a "interest rate cut", because the central bank has given banks the freedom to decide the deposit interest rate, some banks have increased their three-year and five-year deposits instead of falling after using the policy. Some banks also implement the policy of "floating to the top" for deposit interest rates.
According to the policy announced by the central bank, the interest rate of 1 year time deposit changed from 3% to 2.75%, and other maturities were lowered simultaneously. But at the same time, the central bank also expanded the floating space of deposit interest rate allowed by banks from the original 1. 1 times to 1.2 times. Before this interest rate cut, the three-year benchmark interest rate was 4.25%, and 1. 1 times was 4.675%, which was the highest level that depositors could get before. However, after this interest rate cut, the 3-year benchmark interest rate has become 4%, which is 4.8% after 1.2 times, but higher than 4.675%. This means that as long as banks are willing to float, they can give a higher 3-year time deposit interest rate than before.
Yesterday, Nanjing Bank and Bank of Ningbo successively announced that they had used up the floating space of the central bank, which means that the 1 year time deposits of these two banks will remain at 3.3%, while the three-year time deposits will increase from the previous 4.675% to 4.8%.
In addition, the central bank announced that it would no longer announce the benchmark interest rate for five-year time deposits, and banks had greater discretion. At present, the 5-year fixed deposit of Nanjing Bank refers to a 3-year term, which is also raised from the previous 5.225% to 5.4%. In contrast, the deposit interest rates of some large banks are relatively conservative. The benchmark interest rate for three-year fixed deposits is 4%, and that for five years is 4.25%. Some banks even have as low as 4%. This means that in the field of five-year fixed deposits, the interest rate gap between different banks has reached 1.4 percentage points. According to the five-year calculation of 654.38+10,000 yuan, the interest rate of 5.4% can earn 27,000 yuan, while the interest rate of 4% is only 20,000 yuan, a difference of 7,000 yuan. (Zhang Jiamin)
3. The central bank's interest rate cut will lower the bank's wealth management income or fall below 5%.
On the evening of the 22nd, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions would be lowered from 2014165438+1October 22nd. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%.
This interest rate adjustment adopts an asymmetric way to lower the benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits. The central bank said that the reduction of the benchmark interest rate for loans is greater than that for deposits, which is an improvement on the traditional interest rate adjustment method and reflects a more targeted guidance for the downward trend of market interest rates and social financing costs. Judging from the loan interest rate, the benchmark interest rate still has important guiding significance for the pricing of financial products. The sharp reduction of the benchmark interest rate will directly lower the loan pricing benchmark and drive down the pricing of other financial products such as bonds.
Yinlv.com analysts believe that the purpose of bank interest rate cuts is to reduce social financing costs, and the impact on fixed-income investment products is the same, and the income level will decline. For bank wealth management products, the downward trend of investment income will be transmitted to bank wealth management products, and the average income level of bank wealth management products will further decline, which is expected to fall below 5%.
The data shows that the average income level of bank wealth management products has been declining since this year. The average weekly yield of unstructured RMB wealth management products decreased from 5.76% at the beginning of the year to 5.04% last week (1 15 to 2 1 in October), and the proportion of products with expected returns between 4% and 5% gradually increased.
With the decline of interest rates and the further easing of market funds, the average income level of bank wealth management products will continue to decline, and from the current operation of the real economy, the market still has expectations for the central bank to cut interest rates again.
The central bank's interest rate cut may affect the property market in three aspects.
Banks may push for more concessions.
Xu Jin believes that the central bank lowered the interest rate of bank deposits, which directly reduced the financing cost of banks. "After the introduction of the 930 New Deal, most banks did not significantly reduce the loan interest rate due to cost considerations, and most preferential banks also set a threshold, which made the discount ineffective, not to mention the 30% discount on mortgage loans." Xu Jin said that the direct stepping down of the central bank is equivalent to the central bank's 9.4% discount on all buyers in disguise; At present, a 10% discount for some domestic banks is equivalent to a big discount of 8.5% on the original benchmark interest rate. "With the double benefits of financing costs and loose capital environment, more banks will introduce preferential mortgage interest rates."
House prices may stop falling and rebound.
Xu Jin analyzed that at present, the funds in the real estate market are still relatively tight. This loan interest rate cut is a long drought for developers.
In Xu Jin's view, after the developer's impulse of 5438+00 in September and June, the sales pressure and capital pressure dropped greatly at the end of the year. Coupled with the expectation that the future capital environment will be relaxed and the future transaction volume of the property market will continue to rise, it is expected that more developers will start to raise the sales price.
The property market turnover may rebound.
"In the past six months, the local government and the central government's endless stimulus policies for the property market have made buyers wait and see. Coupled with the continuous correction of previous housing prices, most buyers are afraid to enter the market easily." Xu Jin said that the central bank's drastic measures showed the determination of relevant parties to support the market. In addition, in June 5438+00, house prices have stopped falling, and it is very likely that house prices will not fall again, and the volume and price will rise together. "The enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market will be greatly improved."
According to Xu Jin's analysis, it is predicted that in the next few months, the property market will change the off-season situation in previous years, continue the high turnover of 10, and even hit a new high. Prices will also stop falling and rebound, and first-tier cities are expected to take the lead in opening the rebound situation.
Real estate market reaction
Commercial loans are more attractive to buyers.
Some citizens reported that they received a hotline call from the real estate agent yesterday to launch the latest real estate information. When the reporter visited the Guangzhou property market, he also found that the number of people who came to consult and see the house increased.
Yesterday, there were many real estate agents on the road in Mei Dong. The phones kept ringing, and the sales staff knocked on the computer while taking a box lunch, which was in obvious contrast to the deserted scene of many stores in recent months.
A 30% discount on mortgage leads buyers to daydream.
"The news of the interest rate cut came out today, and I still don't see any reaction. However, I received several calls from the owners who put the discount here today, all of which came to consult the interest rate algorithm after the interest rate cut. " A nearby second-hand housing agent said. Aunt Xiao, who accompanied her daughter to see the house yesterday, told reporters that they changed from waiting for the provident fund to paying more attention to the discount of commercial interest rates. "The previous interest rate cuts will have a chain reaction. For example, commercial banks will further offer interest rate concessions. There is a 10% discount on the market now. Will there be a 20% discount or even a 30% discount? "
"The decline in the interest rate of provident fund loans is lower than that of commercial loans, but after conversion, the interest rate of provident fund loans is still equivalent to 30% of the benchmark interest rate of commercial loans." Zheng Dayuan, the person in charge of Dayuan mortgage, told reporters that with the introduction of the interest rate reduction policy, the gap between the monthly supply of provident fund loans and the monthly supply of commercial loans with the same loan amount will be narrowed, which is conducive to increasing the attractiveness of commercial loans to buyers.
However, insiders reminded that since the time for banks to adjust interest rates is not exactly the same, there will be a time lag from the announcement of the news to the specific implementation. Before the specific repayment amount is determined, it is best to repay according to the previous amount, so as to avoid the breach of contract due to time difference and affect the personal credit record.
The turnover in the fourth quarter may reach a climax.
At the same time, the primary market developers also seized the opportunity of the central bank to cut interest rates and seize the opportunity. This weekend, four properties in Guangzhou opened, located in Zengcheng, Nansha, Panyu and Huangpu, and another four properties announced sales promotion.
According to industry analysis, although Guangzhou has not liberalized the purchase restriction, it is difficult to further release the potential of improved buyers, but the central bank's interest rate cut directly reduced the pressure on loan buyers and greatly encouraged the confidence of buyers. It is expected that the property market will usher in a climax in the fourth quarter.
2. China cut interest rates across the board again after two years. Experts said that this may stimulate the real estate market to pick up.
After a lapse of two years, China implemented a comprehensive asymmetric interest rate cut again today. The benchmark interest rates for one-year loans and deposits were lowered by 0.4 percentage points and 0.25 percentage points respectively. At the same time, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate is adjusted from 1. 1 times of the deposit benchmark interest rate to 1.2 times.
Experts said that at present, China's economy is facing greater downward pressure, and the real economy is facing the problem of difficult and expensive financing. The comprehensive asymmetric interest rate cut will help reduce the financing cost of enterprises and alleviate their financing difficulties. At the same time, it will also reduce the pressure of "monthly donors" to repay loans, stimulate the recovery of the property market, and thus stabilize economic growth.
Implementing a comprehensive and asymmetric interest rate cut from now on will help reduce the financing cost of enterprises.
Yesterday, the People's Bank of China announced that the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions will be lowered by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6% from now on; The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%. At the same time, the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions is adjusted from 1. 1 times of the benchmark deposit interest rate to 1.2 times.
This is after July 6th, 2002+2065438, the Bank of China once again adopted a comprehensive asymmetric interest rate cut. In fact, since the beginning of this year, the downward pressure on China's economy has increased and monetary policy has been adjusted frequently. Prior to this, the central bank had twice lowered the deposit reserve ratio on April 25th and June16th.
"This asymmetric interest rate cut is highly instructive, aiming at guiding financial institutions to lower loan interest rates and promoting the return of real interest rates to a reasonable level, thus helping to alleviate corporate financing problems." Zhao Xijun, deputy dean of the School of Finance and Finance of China Renmin University, said in an interview with Zhongxin.com.. com。
Zhao Xijun pointed out that at present, China's economy is facing many pressures, such as downward growth, structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading. The problem of financing difficulty and expensive financing in the real economy is more prominent. In this case, in order to reduce the financing cost of enterprises and maintain steady economic growth, structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading, policies need to be flexible and targeted, and interest rate reduction is the current realistic choice. Moreover, the current domestic inflationary pressure is not great, which also provides room for interest rate cuts.
Regarding whether this comprehensive interest rate cut can boost the economy, Zhao Xijun analyzed that interest rate cut is the most important and influential policy in monetary policy, which helps to enhance the confidence of enterprises and markets. But to what extent it can promote the economy, the key depends on whether the policy can be implemented and whether it can really reduce the actual loan interest rate of banks and the financing cost of enterprises.
"Because commercial banks are under great pressure, on the one hand, the loan interest rate of commercial banks has dropped, but due to the competition for deposit resources, the deposit interest rate may not necessarily fall, which will squeeze the profit space of commercial banks." Zhao Xijun said that only when commercial banks really implement policies can the financing cost and financing environment of enterprises be truly reduced and improved, and the economic development can be promoted.
"Monthly payment" reduces the pressure of repayment, lowers interest rates or stimulates the property market to continue to pick up.
For ordinary people, will the reduction of deposit interest rate lead to the reduction of income? Zhao Xijun believes that the benchmark deposit interest rate will be slightly lowered, but the floating range of interest rate will be expanded at the same time. If commercial banks use floating range, the floating deposit interest rate should be equivalent to the current level, so the deposit interest rate will not necessarily decrease and will not have a great impact on residents' savings.
It is worth mentioning that with the sharp reduction of loan interest rate, the repayment pressure of the majority of "monthly donors" will be alleviated to some extent. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Property, told Zhongxin.com that taking the commercial mortgage of 20 years 1 10,000 yuan as an example, if calculated according to the benchmark interest rate, the buyer can reduce the monthly payment by 234 yuan, and the interest expense by 40,000 yuan in 20 years.
In the opinion of experts, interest rate cuts will also bring benefits to the property market. "The property market that has obviously stabilized and warmed up will inevitably pick up under the influence of interest rate cuts." Zhang Dawei said that although the June house price index released in May 438+1October showed that house prices were still being adjusted, the prices of second-hand houses in first-tier cities, especially Beijing, rose from the previous month. In this case, the interest rate cut will amplify the positive market, and the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market will continue to increase.
Zhang Dawei believes that the credit policy and interest rate level are the vane of the real estate market. For property buyers, the interest rate cut is relatively strong. If the policies of restricting purchases and loans are cancelled before superposition, property buyers are likely to panic and enter the market again.
"The loose credit policy makes it difficult for buyers to expect price cuts to return to rationality." Zhang Dawei predicted that the funds of the property market in first-and second-tier cities will obviously improve, and the possibility of further decline in house prices is close to zero. The absolute value of inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities is too high, and even with credit stimulus, it is unlikely that there will be a comprehensive recovery.
Wang Yulin, former deputy director of the Policy Research Center of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also said that the central bank has made great efforts to cut interest rates. The direct purpose is to stimulate the macro-economy and indirectly benefit the real estate industry. It is expected that this will alleviate the current downturn in the real estate market. "Interest rate cuts will ease the pressure on the developer's capital chain, so that some of them just need to enter the market, which will stabilize housing prices, but it is not expected to rise sharply. "
Is the stock market bull market really coming? Optimism of professionals: bull market becomes a big probability.
2 1 day, just as the market was worried that new shares would flood in next week, the new funds were frozen10.6 trillion, and when the goods were shipped one after another, the market suddenly surged and running all the way. After the close, two pieces of good news came unexpectedly. One is that the CSRC said it was not in a hurry to issue new shares before the end of the year, and the second is that the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates.
According to industry insiders, the central bank's interest rate cut will benefit the whole stock market, and capital-intensive industries such as real estate industry, cement and building materials industry, power industry, textile industry and steel industry with high debt ratio will benefit the most, while coal industry and food and beverage industry will be weak.
First of all, as far as the impact on the whole market is concerned, investors will be more willing to look for high-yield products because of the downward adjustment of deposit interest, which means that the funds entering the stock market will increase; However, at present, securities firms generally carry out financing business, and the balance of financing is increasing. Investors who finance stocks can reduce their costs and benefit from those stocks that are qualified for financial securities lending.
In addition, the interest rate cut near the end of the year will make those blue-chip stocks and high dividend-paying stocks more popular. And "interest-sensitive stocks" such as real estate stocks and insurance stocks directly benefit.
From a broader perspective, interest rate cuts will help enterprises reduce their burdens and improve their profitability, which is good for all listed companies. Therefore, many investors, including investors from professional institutions, believe that the arrival of the bull market has become a high probability event.
However, investors need to be reminded that the news is likely to be negative for the largest heavyweight banks in the two cities, mainly because once the funds flow to the stock market and the housing market, the deposits in the banks will drop, and the funds available for bank lending are likely to decrease. While the loan interest rate is falling, banks have to launch wealth management products in order to retain customers, which may make the deposit interest rate not really fall, leading to a sharp reduction in its spread.
In addition, Zhang Xiaojun, spokesman of the CSRC, said at the regular press conference of 2 1 that in order to stabilize market expectations, the CSRC made reasonable arrangements for the issuance of new shares. Earlier, the CSRC proposed to issue about 100 new shares before the end of this year, which will be generally balanced monthly. Up to now, 66 companies have been listed. According to the progress of the previous months, they will continue to issue in the next few months, and will not be issued centrally at the end of the year. He also stressed that the enterprises approved for issuance in June 5438+ 10 next year are still approved according to the filing data of 20 14, so the number of enterprises approved for issuance at the end of 20 14 and in June 5438+000 next year is also within 100.
1, Beijing News: Interest rate cuts bring rare opportunities for deepening reform.
It is reasonable to start a relatively short-term countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy in the case of rapid decline in economic growth and bottoming out. However, it is a misunderstanding to regard this interest rate cut as a medium-and long-term monetary policy shift when the dominant factors supporting China's economic growth have undergone structural changes.
After more than two years, the central bank finally restarted to cut interest rates-165438+10/0/. That night, the website of the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions would be lowered from 20165438+1October 22. The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans of financial institutions was lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6%, and the benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%.
In fact, carefully tracing the track of the central bank's monetary policy, we can perceive that it is not unexpected for the central bank to cut interest rates.
In the past two years, in the face of the continuous bottoming out of economic growth, the central bank has successively launched a series of targeted easing policies such as SLF, PSl and MLF. However, the facts still cannot effectively support the economic downturn. In the third quarter of this year, GDP even bottomed out and rebounded to 7.3%. Under such worrying circumstances, it is obviously a helpless and inevitable choice for the central bank to decisively restart interest rate cuts. Because, compared with targeted easing, traditional monetary policy tools such as interest rate cuts are not only smoother and more efficient, but also more transparent and fair.
However, while affirming the relative necessity of interest rate cuts, we should be alert to the new wave of investment stimulus that this misleading is likely to usher in. This is not an alarmist. Looking back at the past interest rate cuts and the restart of RRR interest rate cuts, almost every time it is accompanied by large-scale investment stimulus.
Don't make the same mistake again. This is because, compared with the past, the main factors supporting China's economic growth have changed qualitatively. It should be said that for a long time after the reform and opening up, the resource endowment advantage of China's economy lies in the low cost of labor, land and other resources. Under this pattern, investment stimulus can obviously play an extremely obvious role in economic growth. However, after the cost of labor, land and other resources in China has gradually increased, the marginal efficiency of investment stimulus to China's economic growth will inevitably decrease. As late as 20 10 years later, in the face of the sharp increase in labor and land, especially the cost of environmental governance, the marginal efficiency of investment stimulus on economic growth not only declined sharply as a whole, but even appeared negative in some developed areas.
A more objective and rational understanding of the central bank's interest rate cut should be that this is only a relatively short-term measure to prevent a hard landing of economic growth, and it is by no means a complete opening of the medium-and long-term loose monetary policy valve. It is reasonable to start the relatively short-term countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy when the economic growth rate drops rapidly. However, in the case of structural changes in the dominant factors supporting China's economic growth, it is obviously a misunderstanding to regard the central bank's interest rate cut as a medium-and long-term monetary policy shift.
For the central bank to cut interest rates, some central enterprises and local governments must not misunderstand it as a good opportunity to usher in a new round of investment stimulus. In fact, it is obvious that China's economy has entered a new normal, which is not only the original intention of decision makers, but also the central enterprises and local governments. Stimulated by years of investment, the debt burden of both central enterprises and local governments has become unbearable.
At present, we expect that the central bank's interest rate cut will have a short-term impact on China's economic growth to avoid a hard landing of China's economy. At the same time, we hope to cherish the rare opportunity brought by this interest rate cut to China's deep-seated reform, and provide a better institutional environment for the new normal of China's economy by accelerating systematic reforms in finance, taxation and administrative functions. (Source: Beijing News)
2. Beijing Youth Daily: judge the advantages and disadvantages of interest rate cuts calmly and objectively.
The central bank cut interest rates, and there was a lot of applause on the Internet. Applauders say that interest rate cuts benefit the country and the people and solve the problem of financing difficulties for enterprises. Production is good for the people. As a house slave, it also reduces the cost of mortgage repayment. I am very happy! However, the applauding people seem to forget that only some people have paid their mortgages. For the vast number of depositors, the money in the bank gets less return. What should I say?
After reading yesterday's commentary of Beijing Youth Daily, Interest rate cuts came unexpectedly, there was a certain buzz. I agree with the basic judgment in the article. The interest rate cut did come as a surprise, but I don't quite agree with the metaphor of "vomiting blood" and "a strong man broke his wrist" in the article. If you look at the salaries of the buildings and management of banks built in recent years, you will know whether they have room to reduce the difference between deposits and loans.
The original intention and expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut this time are very obvious: on the one hand, it reduces the financing costs of enterprises including housing enterprises and stimulates the vitality of enterprises; On the other hand, while maintaining positive interest rates, let depositors put more money into the market and even the housing market to promote consumption. However, we learn more from the practices of developed countries and favor the stimulating effect of low interest rates or even zero interest rates on consumption, while ignoring the national conditions that China is still the largest developing country. At present, the downward pressure on the economy is not only the external cause of the slow recovery of the international economy, but also the continuous increase of the total amount, which leads to the expansion of the base. Every percentage point increase, especially the unreasonable structure, extensive management, overcapacity, redundant construction and many other internal causes. Simply solving the capital problem is likely to cure the symptoms, but it may also aggravate many serious problems, including the real estate bubble, because of the delay in solving it.
When social security, medical insurance and old-age care are still difficult to worry about, for most people, the money in the bank is still their life-saving money. Even if the total amount is a seemingly huge number, but the per capita is only 30,000 to 40,000 yuan, how many square meters of houses can you buy? Besides, if everyone really wants to spend all their money on buying a house, and the deposits have been greatly reduced, what can banks give loans to enterprises? Isn't it just printing tickets?
In less than two months, the central bank has made continuous moves and has a strong intention to stabilize growth. However, whether we look forward to the measures that have been introduced or continue to introduce new measures, we should objectively and rationally analyze the possible advantages and disadvantages from multiple angles. Allow the speed to slow down moderately, continue to adjust the structure, improve the environment, improve efficiency, foster new economic growth points, and form a multi-point support situation. Even if the speed is slower, it is more practical than the speed of repeated investment and environmental impact, which is more conducive to long-term development and can really benefit people's livelihood. Pan Kun (Beijing employee)
3. Expert: It is necessary to cut interest rates to stimulate economic recovery.
On the evening of 2 1, the People's Bank of China announced that it would lower the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions and expand the floating range of deposit interest rates from 2014165438+122. Ceng Gang, director of the Banking Research Office of the Institute of Finance of China Academy of Social Sciences, responded in an exclusive interview with People's Finance and Economics that the central bank cut interest rates mainly to reduce the cost and risk of economic capital and release loose monetary policy signals to cope with economic downturn and financial risks.
According to the central bank, since 20 1 141October 22nd, the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans has been lowered by 0.4 percentage point to 5.6%. The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits was lowered by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75%, and the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate was adjusted from 1. 1 times of the benchmark interest rate to 1.2 times; The benchmark interest rates of other grades of loans and deposits are adjusted accordingly, and the term grades of benchmark interest rates are appropriately degenerate.
In Ceng Gang's view, the adjustment of the central bank's monetary policy has always been subtle, neither too wide nor too tight. "It's like balancing on the tip of a knife."
In recent years, in the monetary policy operation of the central bank, the first choice of quantitative tools is also a tool to adjust the asset side of financial institutions in a targeted manner, rather than directly lowering the standard and releasing water for general irrigation. However, it should not be ignored that the problem of "difficult and expensive financing" reflected by the real economy is still outstanding.
Ceng Gang said that at present, the operation of China's real economy is not optimistic, and financial risks show signs of increasing. At the same time, the non-performing rate of major banks may also rise.
On this premise, Ceng Gang thinks it is very necessary for the central bank to cut interest rates to stimulate economic recovery. "This effectively reduces the financing costs of enterprises and benefits entities."
Ceng Gang believes that the central bank can release a loose signal to the market through this interest rate cut and RRR interest rate cut, actively guide market psychological expectations, and effectively reduce the cost and risk of small and medium-sized micro-funds.
The relevant departments of the central bank also responded by saying that the focus of this interest rate adjustment is to play the guiding role of the benchmark interest rate, guide the downward trend of market interest rate and social financing cost in a targeted manner, promote the real interest rate to gradually return to a reasonable level, alleviate the outstanding problem of high financing cost for enterprises, and provide a neutral and moderate monetary and financial environment for sustained and healthy economic development.
When talking about the beneficiaries of interest rate adjustment, Lu Zhengwei, chief economist of Industrial Bank, said that when stock loans are repriced early next year, interest rate cuts will help to systematically reduce financing costs, especially for small and micro enterprises, agriculture, rural areas and farmers, and of course real estate.