abstract
& gt& gt core view
In 65438+February, RMB loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of1700 million yuan year-on-year, and the scale of social financing increased by 1.72 trillion yuan, which was 482 1 000 million yuan less than the same period of last year, which was significantly lower than expected. The credit growth rate was 12. The stability of credit data is mainly supported by medium and long-term loans and bill discounting of enterprises, and the social and financial downturn is mainly dragged down by non-standards. The downward growth of M 1 reflects the influence of limited financing of platform companies and real estate enterprises, the decline of M2 growth rate or insufficient financial expenditure. Judging from the base currency and currency multiplier, the excessive reserve ratio may depress the currency multiplier. Looking forward to the future policy direction, it is expected that after the Spring Festival, the monetary policy will switch from a wide currency to a stable currency, and the tone of tight credit in the first quarter will gradually become clear.
& gt& gt Credit increased year-on-year, mainly supported by long-term loans and bills.
In the month of 65438+February, RMB loans increased by 1.26 trillion yuan, an increase of1/7 billion yuan year-on-year, with a growth rate of 12.8%. Structurally, the year-on-year growth mainly comes from the support of the enterprise sector. In June 5438+February, enterprise credit increased by 595.3 billion yuan, an increase of170.9 billion yuan year-on-year, of which medium and long-term loans increased by 550 billion yuan, an increase of152.2 billion yuan year-on-year, maintaining the structural optimization since the second half of the year, mainly due to the increase of manufacturing credit under MPA assessment; In addition, corporate bill financing increased by 334,654,380+billion, an increase of 307.9 billion year-on-year, which was related to the decrease of short-term loans of enterprises by 309.7 billion yuan in the month. Limited short-term loans have increased the demand for enterprise bill discount. In June 5438+February, residents' loans increased by 563.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 82.4 billion yuan. Due to the marginal change of epidemic situation, residents' consumption behavior is disturbed by stages. In 2020, the accumulated new credit 19.63 trillion, an increase of 2.82 trillion over the same period of last year. Looking forward to 2002 1, there will be an inflection point of credit tightening at the beginning of the year, but1credit supply and demand are booming, and the data may still have a relatively strong performance, and the probability of data falling back in February is high.
& gt& gt The year-on-year growth rate of social welfare was lower than expected, mainly due to the non-standard drag.
In June 5438+February, the scale of social financing increased by 1.72 trillion yuan, which was 482 1 billion yuan less than the same period of last year, which was obviously lower than expected. In June 5438+February, the growth rate of social financing stock dropped by 0.3 percentage points from the previous value to 13.3%. Structurally, non-standard projects decreased by 737.6 billion in June 5438+February, of which trust loans decreased by 46 billion/kloc-0.0 billion, undiscounted bills decreased by 22 million/kloc-0.6 billion, and entrusted loans decreased by 55.9 billion. The high maturity of trust loans made the net financing amount in June 5438+February hit a record low. The decline of off-balance sheet bills is mainly affected by the amount of maturity and discount. In March and June of 2020, there was a net financing of more than 200 billion bills, which made the maturity of 65,438+February larger, superimposed with the strong discount demand of enterprises, and the off-balance sheet bills went down more than expected. 65,438+the net financing of national debt in February is 7156 billion, which is still a steady support; The net financing of corporate bonds fell to 44.2 billion yuan, a sharp decrease of 2 183 billion yuan year-on-year, still under the influence of credit default events.
The growth rates of>& gtM 1 and M2 were lower than expected.
At the end of 65438+February, the year-on-year growth rate of M 1.4 percentage points dropped to 8.6%, which was higher than that of M0 and M2, reflecting the accelerated decline of corporate demand deposits. There are two main reasons: First, the credit default event in 165438+ 10, weak financial expenditure, strengthened supervision of trust loans and limited financing of platform companies. Second, in June 5438+February, real estate credit tended to be cautious and overlapped with trust supervision, and housing financing was limited. At the end of February, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 dropped by 0.6 percentage points to 10. 1%, which was also lower than the market expectation. We believe that the main reason is that fiscal expenditure is less than expected. The data shows that fiscal deposits decreased by 954 billion in June, 438+February, lower than last year's decline. Second, from the perspective of base currency and currency multiplier, the central bank put in a large amount in 65438+February.
& gt& gt Short-term liquidity will not relax for a long time, but will turn to stable currency and tight credit in the first quarter.
Since June 1 1, the main purpose of the central bank to increase short-term liquidity is to deal with the issuance of credit bonds triggered by credit default events. However, the long-term sustained release of short-term liquidity will lead to an increase in the willingness of institutions to deleverage, which makes the leverage ratio of the bond market high and deviates from the financial stability goal of stabilizing leverage, so it is impossible to relax short-term liquidity for a long time. We predict that there are two possibilities for the central bank's liquidity regulation to return to neutrality in the future (that is, DR007 fluctuates around 2.2%): First, the central bank thinks that the credit debt problem will be gradually solved; Second, the central bank realized that the problem of credit bonds could not be solved by releasing liquidity, and turned to other means. At the time point, we think that the probability of marginal turn after the Spring Festival is greater. 202 1, the central bank's monetary policy will shift from the perspective of financial stability to stable neutrality, mainly by tightening credit to stabilize the macro leverage ratio. We maintain the judgment that the annual credit and social financing increased by 19 and 3 1 trillion respectively.
Risk warning
The outbreak of credit default has disrupted the tightening rhythm of monetary policy.
Recent perspective
Brief introduction of the macro research team of Zheshang Securities
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The content of the article comes from the report of1February financial data: credit begins to tighten step by step, which was issued in June of 12.