1. Chongqing real estate demanders
The population in need of housing in the main urban area of Chongqing is mainly: 1. Indigenous families in the main city are about to grow up and get married; 2. College graduates whose household registration is outside the main city every year; 3. Rich suburban residents who want to occupy a place in the main city; 4. People entering cities in neighboring provinces; 5. Other high-end talents, businessmen and real estate speculators in Chongqing.
From the demand point of view, the demand of 1 and No.2 is relatively small, which does not play a fundamental role in Chongqing housing prices. The third and fourth person is the main force of Chongqing's takeover. This wave of Chongqing real estate bull market from 65438+February last year to the present is caused by the skyrocketing of the fifth group of people. Judging from the feedback of real estate, real estate speculators all over the country are really powerful, and some have bought dozens of houses in one breath. Because in the eyes of these foreign speculators, among all the second-tier cities in China, Chongqing's housing price is the lowest. Even now, the so-called "high level" has only reached the level of Zhengzhou, Henan Province, and everyone knows that Zhengzhou's urban construction and urban positioning are not as good as Chongqing's.
2. Housing supply in Chongqing
From the supply point of view, Chongqing has been pursuing a large land supply. Before 20 14, Chongqing's land supply has been large in quantity and wide in scope. Someone has done statistics on the internet. Chongqing's land supply in one year is roughly equivalent to the sum of Beijing, Guangzhou and Guangzhou.
Since 20 14, Chongqing's land supply policy has undergone fundamental changes. Due to the increasingly scarce land indicators in the main city, especially the high vacancy rate of residential buildings, Chongqing began to consciously reduce land supply. According to the published data, from 20 14, it will decrease by about 20% every year. Chongqing 20 14 land transaction 139 10000 square meters; 2012.28 million square meters; land sold in 20 16 years10216.2 million square meters, which is 16.8% lower than that in 20 15 years. What does this mean? 20 15 first-tier cities add up to 28.48 million square meters (Beijing 7.34 million square meters, Shanghai/kloc-0.74 million square meters, Guangzhou 8.43 million square meters, Shenzhen/kloc-0.97 million square meters). With such a huge land supply, the average building price of 20 1 16 yuan/square meter in Chongqing is understandable. But by 20 16, the land supply in Chongqing is only 3 million square meters more than that in Guangzhou. Although the land supply is still the largest, the total amount has been greatly reduced. From a national perspective, reducing land supply has become a trend. Although the Ministry of Land and Resources said that for cities with insufficient real estate inventory, it is necessary to increase land supply. However, the pursuit of food self-sufficiency in our country is a basic national policy, and the red line of 65.438+0.8 billion mu of land cannot be moved. And unless megacities are developed, the land supply in cities is extremely limited. It can increase the land supply, bring Jiangjin and Changshou into the main city and increase the land supply. Will people who work and live in the main city like living in Changshou Jiangjin? Not for at least 20 years, everyone is still willing to work and live in Yuzhong District, Jiangbei District and North District, and even going to Banan feels far away.
There is another situation: there is no land in the north of Chongqing. If we provide more land, we will get Beibei. Therefore, the future land supply will focus on Beibei, Dadukou and Jiulongpo. And these places, as you can think, most people don't want to go.
There are only old houses in the old city at present. Therefore, in the future, new buildings in Chongqing will be mainly transformed from old cities, and second-hand housing transactions will flourish. And the old city reconstruction, the floor price is definitely much higher than the current price of building a new building with a piece of wasteland. This is the real estate situation that Hong Kong is currently facing. Among the mountain cities, the only object that Chongqing can refer to is Hong Kong. Of course, Chongqing's economic volume, economic level and location advantages are not comparable to Hong Kong's, but the similarity of the two topographical structures must have a feature-the flat land resources suitable for buildings are scarce.
Because of this, in the near future, perhaps 10, Chongqing's real estate model will focus on the transformation of the old city, and the activity of second-hand housing transactions will be unprecedented.
3. Balance between supply and demand
At present, the relationship between supply and demand in the main urban area of Chongqing is relatively balanced. In the future, because of the urban development, there will be a shortage of supply. However, the status quo of supply and demand has not been fundamentally reversed. Of course, I also want to make it clear that the main city I am talking about is not the administrative planning of the government, but what we usually call Yubei, Jiangbei, Nan 'an, Yuzhong, Shapingba and Jiulongpo. Why is this? I think anyone who has lived in Chongqing for more than five years can feel why I am so classified.
The population determines the future development of housing prices in Chongqing. According to government statistics, in the past two years, the main urban area of Chongqing has seen a net inflow of 200,000-300,000 people. Part of this population is Chongqing registered residents who have returned to their hometowns in first-tier cities such as Beishangguangshen and Shenzhen, and part of them are people who come to Chongqing to look for opportunities. Most of the registered population in Chongqing who have returned home have savings. Many of them are industrial workers, small enterprises or other industries in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. In fact, they have a skill or some ability to make a living. More or less, there is a need to buy a house in the main city (according to the economics textbook, I want to buy a house and have the ability to buy a house). Among the people returning home, some people are particularly eye-catching: they are highly educated Chongqing students. Many of them have worked in Guangzhou, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and even overseas for many years, lamenting the housing prices in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, only to find that their 5 million people in Guangzhou and Shenzhen can only buy a house of more than 80 square meters. When they return to Chongqing, they can buy a house or even a villa. During this period, they went back to their hometown to buy a house and moved back to Chongqing for development. Similarly, so do foreign talents with dreams. This part is actually the talent that Chongqing is most willing to attract.
A foreign gold prospector who came to Chongqing for development. In fact, Chongqing's attraction to the whole country began in 2008. At that time, for well-known reasons, Chongqing attracted the attention of the whole country. Since then, Chongqing has entered the golden age of infrastructure construction. Expressway, city park, rail transit, educational resources, medical resources, etc. , all changed guns. I think, everyone still remembers that before 2008, I went to see Nanping now, and it was so chaotic. 45,678 kilometers. I dare not think about it. However, looking back now, Nanping looks like a metropolis, even if it is 456 kilometers, it is still passable. This is a period of rapid development of Chongqing's urban construction.
We probably all have this experience. When you see the Postal Savings Bank and China Construction Bank, which bank would you choose to save money for a card? I believe most people would like to go to China Construction Bank. Why? Because I saw the decoration of the Postal Savings Bank, it really doesn't look like a financial institution. It's too simple. I didn't think of it as a bank in my heart, but went to the post office. But what about China Construction Bank and even China CITIC Bank? Gorgeous decoration and many outlets are called infrastructure construction, so everyone is willing to go. In fact, the interest rates of Postal Savings Bank and China Construction Bank are the same, so people don't have to wait in line. But your decoration is not beautiful, and there are few outlets, and the function of ATM is not as advanced as others. This is caused by poor infrastructure.
Chongqing is the same. Before 2008, the infrastructure construction in Chongqing was too poor. So what was the house price at that time? At that time, Chongqing said that people who bought so many houses were fools.
However, after 2008, look at the current rail transit in Chongqing, and the development density ranks among the top five in the country. Look at all kinds of roads, parks, office buildings and business districts, which are very attractive to talents. This is called cornucopia effect. Now, after more than 9 years of construction, Chongqing's cornucopia effect has gradually emerged and has just begun.
Some people say, how do you know there are so many foreigners coming? I believe the government has a net inflow of this data. However, perhaps no one has made a structural analysis of this part of the net inflow population. And, unfortunately, I can't get these data. However, we can learn from life experience. Recently, there are many mainlanders who speak Cantonese and Chaoshan dialect in my neighborhood. They either open a Chaoshan hot pot restaurant in the surrounding area or scramble to operate in the computer city. In fact, these people are very smart. Chaoshan people can do business. They traveled all over the country, looking for opportunities everywhere. Now I have found Chongqing. This is a trend and a change.
You can also see a phenomenon. Now everyone is familiar with Rosen, the 24th convenience store. However, 20 1 1 years ago, how many people knew about Rosen? The investigation on the opening of 24 convenience stores in Japan is very demanding. They want to study the population structure, consumption structure and future development of the city. So there are not many cities with 24 convenience stores in China today. The richness of commercial formats indicates the increase of business opportunities.
There is another change, I don't know if you have noticed it. It is the catering forms in Chongqing that have begun to enrich. In the past, the catering in Chongqing was only Sichuan cuisine, hot pot and small noodles, but it was gone. What about now? Hong Kong-style tea restaurant, Cantonese restaurant, Northeast cuisine, Yunnan cuisine, Shaanxi guild hall, Mongolian restaurant, Korean fast food, German restaurant ... Even in the field of hot pot, Chaoshan hot pot can open a world.
It is said that Chongqing is not exclusive. In fact, Chongqing's exclusion is reflected in catering. In the past, a group of Chongqing locals wanted to eat hot pot, and a foreigner said that it was so spicy. Let's change it. Chongqing people must say, not bad, slightly spicy. See, slight spicy is the biggest concession of Chongqing locals to foreigners, no matter you are a classmate or a friend.
But this sense of restaurant hegemony began to change. Now people will say, let's eat something else, eat lightly and eat tea restaurants. This is certainly an improvement, which shows that Chongqing people have broadened their horizons and better living conditions. And this change is extremely important for attracting talents from all over the country.