At present, the global potash resources are mainly distributed in Canada, Russia, Belarus and other places. In 20021year, the world's largest potash production was in Canada, accounting for more than 30% of the world's total output, and the top five countries/regions (Canada, Russian Federation, Belarus, China and Germany) accounted for more than 80% of the total output, so the global potash production market was highly concentrated.
From the global potash export market, except for Israel and Germany, Canada, Russia and Belarus rank among the top three in the world. In 20021year, the total export of potash fertilizer in the top five countries/regions in the world accounted for more than 80% of the global total.
Potash imports in the top five countries/regions in the world account for more than 60%.
From the perspective of the global potash import market, Brazil, China, the United States, India, Indonesian and other countries/regions have a large scale of crop cultivation and a large demand for potash import. In 20021year, the total imports of potash fertilizer from the above five countries accounted for more than 60% of the global total.
Multiple factors have led to a surge in global potash imports.
To sum up, the global potash supply market is highly monopolized and the demand market is highly concentrated. According to IFA statistics, 80% of global potash consumption in 20021year was met by imports, which also led to greater import and export trade risks in the global potash market.
Especially since 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has urged countries to attach great importance to food security and further promote the demand for potash fertilizer; By February 2022, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine broke out, and Belarus was sanctioned by Europe and the United States, prompting Lithuania to ban the transit of potash fertilizer in Belarus from February 1 2022, which led to the suspension of the circulation of some potash commodities. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply of some international potash contracts between Belarus and Russia was delayed or interrupted, which led to the tightening of the global potash supply market and pushed the potash price up continuously.
Referring to the import price trend of potash fertilizer in China announced by China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, since July 20021year, the import unit price of potash fertilizer (including 60% potassium oxide) in China has exceeded 3.7 yuan/kg, up 33% from June, and has remained at a high level above 3.7 yuan/kg since then.
—— The above data comes from Forecast and Analysis Report on Production and Marketing Demand and Investment of Potash Industry in China by Prospective Industry Research Institute.