Jiejie Microelectronics predicts that from 165438+1October16 in 2020, the price of chip products will increase by 15~30%, and the price of finished devices will increase by 10~20%. Shi said that due to the rising prices of MOS wafers and packaging materials and the impact of production capacity, the price of SGT MOS products of the company increased by 20% from 65438+February 9, 2020. Fuman Electronics said that starting from 202 1 and 1, the tax-included prices of all products of the company will be uniformly raised by 10% on the basis of the current prices, and will be continuously adjusted according to the dynamic changes of the market in the future. Ding Hui science and technology (603 160. SH) Announced that the US dollar price of GT9 products of the company will be increased by 30% from 202 1 1 on the basis of the current price.
The skyrocketing chip price seems like a feast, but the real benefit is the company that has mastered the wafer production capacity. For wafer chip design companies such as Ding Hui Science and Technology, the price increase is only to conduct upstream pressure and has limited impact on profits.
To what extent will wafer production capacity affect the semiconductor industry chain? Wafer manufacturers or chip companies, who is more injured?
According to the size classification, there are 6-inch, 8-inch and 12-inch wafers widely used in the industry at present, among which 8-inch and 12-inch wafers are the most widely used. A brokerage analyst said that the real shortage is the 8-inch wafer production capacity, and the 12-inch wafer production capacity is not as tight as expected. Theoretically, the bigger the wafer, the less waste it will be when cutting, which will help to improve the profit rate. Therefore, most wafer foundries have given priority to expanding the production capacity of 12 inch wafers in the past few years. According to IC Insights, by the end of 20021,the global 12 inch production capacity will reach 7 1.2%.
But that doesn't mean that an 8-inch wafer is worthless. Compared with 12 inch wafer, 8 inch wafer has two advantages.
First of all, the 8-inch wafer has a mature special process, which can make smaller grains contain more simulation content or support higher voltage. Special process technologies include high-precision analog CMOS, RF CMOS, embedded memory CMOS, CIS, high-voltage CMOS, BiCMOS and BCDMOS.
Secondly, most of the 8-inch fab equipment has been depreciated, and the fixed cost is low. The production capacity of 8-inch fabs began to increase in the late 1990s, and most of them have been completely depreciated. Therefore, 8-inch wafer products are very competitive in cost.
At present, the 8-inch wafer production line mainly produces the following types of chips, including discrete power devices, MEMS sensors, special storage, display drivers, microcontrollers, RF and analog products.
From the supply side, from 20 19 to 2022, the global 8-inch wafer production capacity will increase by 700,000 wafers/month, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.5%. In addition, the 6-inch wafer factory was closed, and some products such as power devices and analog chips were switched to 8-inch wafers, further increasing the burden of 8-inch production capacity.
From the demand side, the shortage of 8-inch wafer production capacity is mainly caused by the strong demand for analog chips and power devices such as power management, CMOS, fingerprint identification and RF. According to the terminal, the increase in demand for 8-inch wafers mainly comes from the consumer electronics and industrial markets, and the demand for automobiles increased after the outbreak. The corresponding markets of power management chips, CMOS image sensor chips, fingerprint identification chips, display driver chips, RF chips and power devices will definitely grow in the next two years. It is estimated that by 2025, the market scale of power management chips will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 12.35%, and the market scale of CMOS image sensors will grow at a compound annual growth rate of about 8.70%, both of which are expected to grow rapidly.
Overall, the growth rate of downstream demand is higher than that of supply side, which is the main reason for the insufficient production capacity of 8-inch wafers.
Hua Hong Semiconductor benefited the most. At present, among A-shares and H-shares, Hua Hong Semiconductor (0 1347) is the main company with 8-inch wafer production capacity. HK), China Resources Micro (688396. SH)，SMIC (68898 1。 SH) and Sylvie. Among them, SMIC has the highest wafer energy production and utilization rate.
At present, SMIC has three 8-inch wafer factories located in Shanghai, Tianjin and Shenzhen, with a planned production capacity of 385,000 wafers/month and a capacity utilization rate of 97.8%. Hua Hong Semiconductor has three 8-inch wafer factories with a total monthly production capacity of 17.8 thousand wafers/month. The capacity utilization rates of 8-inch fabs in 20 19Q4, 2020Q 1, 2020Q2 and 2020Q3 are 92.5%, 9 1.9%, 100.4% and 102% respectively. The products of the first fab include power devices and embedded devices.
China Resources Micro * * * has two 8-inch wafer factories, located in Wuxi and Chongqing respectively, with a capacity of about 13.3 thousand wafers per month, with a capacity utilization rate of over 90%. About 90% of Wuxi's 8-inch line is used for external OEM, while Chongqing's 8-inch line is basically its own product. Judging from the newly planned production capacity, China Resources Micro-8-inch expansion project is expected to increase the production capacity by 1.6 million pieces/month, and the production scale will continue to increase after the 1.2-inch project is put into production. Judging from the pace of production expansion, China Resources Micro 8-inch expansion project is expected to be completed in 20021year.
Slam Jixin is a subsidiary of Slam Micro, specializing in the production and sale of 8-inch integrated circuit chips. The products are mainly high-voltage integrated circuit chips, power semiconductor device chips and MEMS sensor chips. Shilan new 8-inch production line was officially put into production in June 20 17, and the output exceeded 50,000 pieces in June 2020. The second phase of 20 19, 8-inch production line started construction. After the project is completed, it will form an annual production capacity of 432,000 8-inch chips.
In terms of the impact on listed companies, the revenue proportion of 8-inch wafers is different, so the impact of wafer price increase on revenue is also different. Among them, Hua Hong Semiconductor is dominated by special processes, with 8-inch revenue accounting for the highest proportion, reaching 99%; SMIC and China Resources Micro 8-inch revenue accounted for 40%; Slane Micro's 8-inch revenue accounts for 20%. The company that has benefited the most from the price increase of 8-inch wafers is undoubtedly Hua Hong Semiconductor.