Aluminum industry is a big polluter. Is there any development potential in China? Is it possible to expand?

I. Background of Aluminum Industry After 50 years of development, China's aluminum industry has established a huge industrial cluster in 2007, covering a complete aluminum industrial system such as aluminum mine, alumina, electrolytic aluminum and aluminum processing. Aluminum and aluminum processing have entered a period of rapid development, and aluminum is more and more widely used. In 2007, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was about12.4 million tons, including 6.6 million tons of profiles, 400,000 tons of die-casting materials and 5.4 million tons of foil strips. As a sunrise industry, aluminum industry shows a very attractive development prospect. Second, the bottleneck of constraints Although China has been firmly seated on the throne of the global aluminum power, China is far from being an aluminum power due to the following factors! 1. China is a country with relatively scarce aluminum resources. Although the existing bauxite reserves are about 700 million tons, most of them are bauxite with aluminum-silicon ratio of 4-7. Compared with foreign bauxite whose Al-Si ratio is more than 10, the beneficiation cost is more than 2 times higher. Low grade mineral resources will gradually restrict the development of aluminum industry; 2. The energy consumption of electrolytic aluminum is too high, which is about 30% higher than the most advanced technology. 3. The proportion of building profiles is too high, with overcapacity, excessive competition and low profit, which seriously restricts the investment in technological transformation, innovation and environmental protection. 4. Insufficient investment in alloy research and development has seriously restricted the promotion of aluminum metal in the industrial field; 5. Large aluminum processing equipment is heavily dependent on imports, which increases the management and product cost. 3. Development Prospect Although the development of aluminum industry in China has encountered the above difficulties, it has made good progress in many fields through the continuous exploration of many colleagues and experts, showing a very attractive development prospect. 1, the country has listed the desilication technology of low-grade ore as a key project in 973, and the research group led by Professor Zhang Tianming of Central South University will develop it. Once industrialized, China's aluminum resources will be used for 50 years! 2. There are many researches on inert electrodes of electrolytic aluminum. Once a breakthrough is made, the cost of electrolytic aluminum will be greatly reduced. 3. In 2007, there were about 2,000 aluminum die-casting enterprises in China, with an annual output of 400,000 tons and an output value of about 20 billion yuan. 4. The foil with Henan as the center has made great progress, and the pattern dominated by aluminum has begun to be broken; 5. Foshan Nanhai Aluminum Profile Industry Association established a technical expert committee at the end of 2007 to provide technical support for the development of Nanhai aluminum profiles. I. Overview of Aluminum Profile Industry in China After more than 50 years of development, the aluminum profile industry in China has become a major aluminum profile producer in the world. As of 2007, China has more than 600 aluminum extrusion plants and about 3,500 extrusion production lines, ranking first in the world in terms of quantity, capacity and output, and becoming a major producer of aluminum extrusion materials in the world. After the adjustment of product structure and market in recent years, the number of aluminum processing plants has decreased and the distribution has gradually dispersed; The export of products has increased, and it has become the most important producer and net exporter of aluminum profiles in the world. Output: In 2007, the national express output of aluminum processed materials was11759,000 tons, which was 44.3% higher than the express output of 8148,000 tons in 2006. The estimated output is 6.6 million tons, an increase of 36.2% over 2006. From the perspective of aluminum processing industry, the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Rim and other three regions, with the central region represented by Henan developing rapidly. Since the new century, the total output of the former 10 provinces in China has gradually increased, reaching 82. 1% in 2000, 84.7% in 2005, 87. 1% in 2006 and 87.63% in 2007. The output rankings of Guangdong and Henan provinces continue to maintain the top two, and the proportion is still rising. The provinces with faster output growth are Shandong and Hunan. Shandong ranked third from the sixth place in 2006, and its output was close to 65.438+0 million tons, reaching 994.8 million tons, an increase of 85.6% over 2006. Hunan province came from behind with a good result of 21.1.2000 tons, and Hebei province was squeezed out of the top ten with a relatively small increase in output. Guangdong construction aluminum profile industry has a prominent position and absolute advantage in the country. Guangdong province is a big province of aluminum profile processing and manufacturing in China, and also a big province of aluminum consumption. At present, the processing capacity of aluminum in Guangdong Province exceeds 3 million tons/year, and the comprehensive output value exceeds 654.38+000 billion yuan, which has formed an industry with obvious scale advantages and brand advantages. According to the statistics of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, in 2006, there were more than 560 aluminum profile factories in China and more than 2 10 in Guangdong Province. Among the top 10 enterprises in China, Guangdong Province accounts for 6, and the output of aluminum profiles in Guangdong Province accounts for about 55% of the whole country, and its market share exceeds 45% of the whole country. There are 17 famous aluminum processing enterprises in China and 10 in Guangdong, including 9 aluminum profile factories and 1 0 plate, strip and foil manufacturers. 3. Exports In 2007, the net export volume of aluminum products in China increased by 1 10.0% year-on-year (see Table 2). Among them, the contribution of flat rolling products is obvious. Profile exports reached 845,000 tons, only increasing by 24. 1% compared with 2006, and the growth rate decreased by 56. 1% year-on-year. Mainly affected by the sluggish real estate industry in Europe and America and the cancellation of export tax rebate in July 1 country. 4. Trend! (1) Electrolytic aluminum and processing enterprises extend each other. Typical large-scale electrolytic aluminum enterprises include: Chinalco Lanzhou Liancheng Aluminum, Chinalco Qinghai Aluminum, Henan Jiaozuo Wanfang Aluminum, Qingtongxia Aluminum, Inner Mongolia Huolinhe Hong Jun Aluminum Group, Henan Xichuan Aluminum, Zhejiang Huadong Aluminum, etc., and aluminum processing projects or billet projects have been added one after another. Processing enterprises look for partners or set up factories in areas with resources, such as Bohai Aluminum, Yinbai, Huachang and other enterprises. ; (2) China aluminum processing enterprises actively listed for financing. Aluminum processing enterprises make use of domestic and foreign capital markets, actively carry out various forms of financing, and obtain necessary financial support for the development and growth of enterprises. Listed aluminum processing enterprises include Chinalco Northwest Aluminum, Shandong Nanshan, Zhejiang Liang Dong, Changshu Aluminum Foil and Xinjiang Zhonghe. Companies to be listed include Mingtai in Henan, Xingfa in Guangdong, Minfa in Shandong, Lufeng Aluminum Foil in Shandong, Xiashun in Suzhou and Rope Gold. (3) The successful application of high-speed train body profiles with independent intellectual property rights in 300km/h trains in China indicates that China has entered the ranks of countries that can produce 300km/h high-speed train profiles in the world. (4) The proportion of industrial profiles and high-grade energy-saving building profiles has increased. (5) Various new technologies have been applied in aluminum processing and production. Main problems and opportunities in the development of aluminum profile industry. Main problems: Although China has become a big country in aluminum production and consumption, there is still a big gap compared with the world's aluminum production power. The consumption of aluminum profiles in China is mainly concentrated in the construction industry, accounting for about 75% of the total consumption, while the consumption of architectural profiles in developed countries such as Japan and North America accounts for 62.5% and 44.5% of the total consumption respectively. On the one hand, this gap reflects the vigorous development of China's construction industry, on the other hand, it also reflects the shortage of production, development and application of industrial aluminum profiles in China, and also indicates that there is a huge market and development space for industrial aluminum profiles in China. At present, the outstanding problems in the development of aluminum processing industry are: (1) China is a big country in aluminum industry, but it is not a strong country in aluminum industry. China's aluminum industry is characterized by a large total, but the overall development level is low and the cost of resources and environment is high. There are a large number of aluminum processing enterprises, with relatively weak technical force and poor independent innovation ability. After fierce market competition and elimination in recent years, the scale of aluminum processing enterprises has expanded rapidly and there has been a certain degree of concentration. For example, in 2006, the output of 10 aluminum extrusion profile factories in China accounted for about 15% of the national output. At present, under the unprecedented pressure of technical equipment level, fierce market competition environment and national development strategy and policy measures, enterprises are forced to change from output growth to quality and efficiency, and then to technological innovation. China has ushered in a development opportunity to accelerate its March to the world's aluminum processing power. (2) The resource consumption is serious, the pressure of environmental protection is great, and the task of energy conservation and emission reduction is arduous. . From June to May 2007, the average comprehensive electricity consumption of electrolytic aluminum in China was 14456kWh/ ton. At the same time, the energy consumption of alumina in the production process is also very high, with 0.8 tons of standard coal per ton. The irregular production mode of aluminum processing enterprises has caused a certain degree of environmental pollution. There is still a big gap between the energy consumption index of aluminum processing industry in China and the advanced level abroad, which is both a challenge and an opportunity for development. (3) The adjustment of national policies brings severe challenges, and enterprises have a long way to go to meet the standards. At present, China has begun to restrict the export of high pollution, high energy consumption and resource-based products. From July 1 2007, the export tax rebate for aluminum processed products will be abolished, and from August 1 2007, the import tariff for primary aluminum will be abolished. As a high energy consumption material, aluminum is also a high energy storage material and a green material, which is an irreplaceable material to promote social progress. China's economy will continue to maintain rapid growth, which on the one hand provides a huge demand space for the development of aluminum industry, on the other hand increases the importance and urgency of the development of aluminum industry, and social development needs to vigorously develop aluminum industry. According to the national industrial policy, the development of China's aluminum industry is mainly to meet domestic demand, and the export of high-energy primary products such as electrolytic aluminum by general trade and processing trade is not encouraged or restricted. The policy will continue to encourage the export of aluminum products with high technology content and added value. At present, the country has cancelled the import tariff of primary aluminum, and the General Administration of Customs put aluminum profile processing on the export ban list in June 5438+February 2007. The above measures are mainly to curb the export of aluminum resources. In the case of strong domestic demand, the combination of "blocking" and "thinning" is adopted, on the one hand, the increment of electrolytic aluminum is controlled, and the export is controlled; On the other hand, actively expand domestic demand, vigorously develop high value-added aluminum products, increase domestic aluminum reserves, and guide China's aluminum industry to achieve sound and rapid development. In 2007, the National Development and Reform Commission issued Announcement No.64, which further raised the entry threshold and required existing enterprises to reach the threshold level in terms of energy consumption, metal consumption and output before the end of 20 10. In the next three short years, it is quite difficult and challenging to make China's aluminum processing industry meet the standards. (4) The enterprise's industrial chain is short, its competitiveness is not strong, it is controlled by upstream and downstream, its ability to resist risks is weak, its product homogeneity is serious, its profits are reduced, and its risks are increased. In recent years, the RMB exchange rate continues to rise, and the price of raw aluminum fluctuates greatly, which has a great impact on aluminum processing enterprises. (5) Low technical level and weak R&D strength. Reflected in the vast majority of enterprises are engaged in the production of low-grade building profiles, product research and development is not enough, copying each other and competing with each other, resulting in a low overall level. (6) Lack of professionals. The lack of professional management and technical personnel in aluminum processing is not conducive to the rapid development of aluminum processing industry. (7) The development of society puts forward higher requirements for aluminum profile industry. In order to adapt to the development of China's aluminum industry, with the development of aluminum surface treatment technology and the higher requirements of the market for aluminum alloy surface treatment, new national standards for aluminum and aluminum alloys have been promulgated and implemented one after another. The new national standard is basically in line with the industrial developed countries, which puts forward higher new requirements for enterprises to produce and ensure product quality, and will further standardize the production of aluminum industry and promote the healthy development of the industry. In addition, the use of heavy metals such as hexavalent chromium, nickel, lead, cadmium and mercury has been strictly restricted in the European Union and North America. Domestic aluminum processing enterprises must actively respond and take corresponding measures. 2. Development Opportunities (1) The aluminum industry is a sunrise industry. According to the market demand, aluminum windows account for about 60%, plastic windows (PVC) account for about 30%, steel windows account for about 5%, and wooden windows are hardly used in cities. About 75% of aluminum profiles in China are used in the construction industry to make building doors, windows and curtain walls. In 2006, the total construction area in China was 2 1 100 million square meters, an increase of about 2 1% compared with 2005. The output of aluminum alloy doors and windows used in the construction industry in China is about 320 million square meters, and the annual completed area of building curtain wall is about 5 1 10,000 square meters. The number of new aluminum alloy doors and windows for building is increasing year by year, and the aluminum extrusion material for building structure has yet to be developed, which has great market potential. The extensive use of industrial profiles in transportation industry is the driving force for the rapid growth of industrial aluminum profiles, and aluminum alloy is the first choice for the development of transportation industry in 2 1 century. The demand for high-strength and corrosion-resistant wide aluminum alloy profiles for rail transit, urban traffic, rapid transit and light rail trains reaches 65,438+10,000 tons. Overview of containers: The aluminum consumption of aluminum containers in China has exceeded 50,000 tons. It is estimated that the demand for aluminum profiles for containers will reach about 65438+ 10,000 tons in 2065.438+00. Radiator profile: the demand for large-section thin-walled radiator will reach 654.38+10,000 tons. Shipbuilding: In 2006, the shipbuilding output of China was 145 1 dwt, accounting for 19% of the world market. A large number of panels and supports on ship plywood and hull are potential markets for aluminum alloy materials with high toughness and corrosion resistance. It is predicted that the demand for this kind of materials will increase greatly in 20 10. (2) It is necessary to develop a variety of aluminum technologies, and the successful development and industrialization of each technology will bring great benefits. Guangdong aluminum industry roadmap lists 56 nutrient technologies that need to be researched and developed, which need to be researched and developed by enterprises and scientific research institutions. (3) There is a strong demand for talents, and there are many opportunities for high-quality aluminum talents. Relying on technological progress and innovation, implementing technical management and operation is a necessary condition for the survival, development and competitiveness of aluminum profile processing enterprises in China. It is also the basic guarantee for enterprises to provide high-quality products and first-class services for the aluminum door and window curtain wall industry. Iii. Suggestions: 1. In addition to exchanging information, the establishment of industrial alliances is mainly to form a restraint mechanism to prevent vicious competition, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. 2, conditional enterprise transformation, expand the industrial chain, don't put eggs in a basket. Nanshan industrial chain, Asian aluminum industry, etc. Some big companies have already started to do it. Upstream and downstream, casting, etc. 3. Technological innovation, making the road map of aluminum industry, developing new technology research and development, and forming a relatively perfect technical system in China. Innovation is the key to energy conservation and emission reduction, and research and development of new processes and technologies should be actively carried out. In addition, we should do a good job in popularizing mature new technologies for energy conservation and emission reduction.

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