Car Stuff
Author?｜Juice
Editor?｜Xiaohan
In the past day or two, there has been news about Apple building a car The overwhelming news aroused enthusiastic attention.
Yesterday, Taiwan Economic Daily reported that Apple has recently made stocking requirements to Taiwanese auto parts manufacturers such as Heda, Bizlian, Heqin, and Tomita. Apple is expected to release an Apple car in September next year. It said its prototype has been tested on the road in California, USA.
Taiwanese media said Apple Car will be unveiled in the third quarter of next year
Today, Reuters released news that Apple plans to produce a pure electric passenger car in 2024. Reuters also Citing sources close to Apple, Apple is developing low-cost, long-lasting power batteries.
More than ten days ago, foreign media DigiTimes predicted that Apple Car will be unveiled in 2024-2025.
Although there seems to be a certain conflict in the timing of these messages, Apple has applied for multiple patents since it entered the field of electric vehicles in 2014. The close voice of supply chain companies this time also reflects It hints that Apple's first car may really be coming.
But in fact, Apple officials have not announced a clear timeline for the release time of Apple Car. This matter has not yet been determined, and it is more of a guess.
After communicating with people in the industry and reviewing Apple’s car patents (please refer to Che Dongxi’s previous reports "Apple is determined to build cars! 30 new patents were added in one year, all of which are black technologies", "70 After a patent decrypted Apple’s car! It’s so clever that even Tesla can’t catch up with it” and “Apple’s way of playing smart cars is even wilder than Tesla’s”), the car maker also found some clues, which can almost conclude that Apple’s car is really is already on the way.
In order to have an accurate understanding of Apple’s building of cars, Chestong has sorted out ten key questions. Once these ten questions are clarified, you will have a clearer understanding of Apple’s building of cars. .
1. Why does Apple want to build a car? Seize the trend of the times
Apple's main products are consumer electronics products represented by iPhone, Mac, and iPad. It is not a major player in the automotive field, and it did not have a lot of experience before. Despite this, , Apple still crossed over into this track, so why did Apple do this?
In the opinion of Chexixi, there are mainly the following reasons. On the one hand, under the leadership of Tesla, the world has set off a wave of smart electric vehicles. At the same time, governments of various countries are also actively encouraging car companies to start electric vehicles. transformation. Multiple cross-border players such as Weilai, Ideal, and Xpeng have achieved good market results, and their stock prices and market value are also soaring.
At present, Tesla’s market value exceeds that of Toyota and Volkswagen combined, and NIO’s market value once surpassed that of BMW Group. The development potential of the smart electric vehicle market is very obvious.
Tesla has a market value of US$616 billion
On the other hand, Apple officially released its Q4 financial report for fiscal year 2020 at the end of October. The financial report showed that Apple’s revenue in the fourth quarter was 646.98 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 433.4 billion), an increase of 1 compared with US$64.04 billion (approximately RMB 419.1 billion) in the same period last year, while net profit was US$12.673 billion (approximately RMB 82.9 billion), an increase from last year’s US$13.686 billion (approximately RMB 89.6 billion), a decrease of 8 compared with US$13.686 billion.
And the iPhone business revenue, which Apple previously relied on most, fell by 20.7% year-on-year, with revenue of US$26.444 billion (approximately RMB 173.1 billion).
In such an environment, Apple also needs more business to support its own development. The recently popular smart electric vehicles are undoubtedly Apple's best choice.
Although Apple has also launched Car?Play in the automotive field, for Apple, which has always been committed to the C-end market, Car?Play obviously cannot meet Apple's ambitions in the automotive field and directly produces products for users. The Apple car is more in line with Apple's consistent style.
CarPlay
As an industry disruptor, if Apple can launch a smart electric car with Apple characteristics, it may affect the direction of the industry in the next ten years. Can Apple’s market value reach 30,000? Billion US dollars (approximately 19.6 trillion yuan) may also be tied to Apple cars.
2. Does Apple have automotive talents? Frequent poaching has established a complete car-building team
Although it is confirmed that Apple will definitely build cars, cars are a big project after all and require support from multiple aspects such as talents, funds, and technology. So, is Apple ready in these areas?
First, let’s take a look at Apple’s talent pool. In March 2014, after Apple released Carplay in-vehicle software at the Geneva Motor Show, it began to conduct substantial research on cars. In 2015, media reported that Apple’s car project had thousands of people involved in research and development. At the same time, Apple has been encouraging Tesla employees to join Apple.
This year, Apple has hired outstanding talents from major car companies around the world, including Tesla, Chrysler Automobiles, and Volkswagen Group. Among them is Chris Porritt, former vice president of Tesla. Currently, he also holds an important position in Apple's Titan project.
In addition, Apple hired autonomous driving-related talents from Nvidia, Waymo and other companies in 2015 to help Apple develop autonomous driving systems. Apple has also "poached" at least three battery experts from Samsung to focus on power battery technology.
In July 2016, the Wall Street Journal reported that Apple rehired retired Apple’s former senior vice president of hardware Bob Mansfield and asked him to take over the Titan car project.
Bob Mansfield, Apple’s former senior vice president of hardware
Although Apple has never announced the number of team members, some clues can be found from public information. In July 2018, when Apple sued former Chinese engineer Zhang Xiaolang, it was shown in the lawsuit documents that 5,000 employees were participating in research on its autonomous driving project.
Judging from this information, Apple still attaches great importance to the automotive business, and has expanded its recruitment multiple times since its establishment. The employees it has absorbed include traditional OEMs, new car companies, and autonomous driving companies. Even power battery companies cover almost all projects in the field of smart electric vehicles. In other words, Apple’s reserve of automotive talents is comprehensive.
3. Does Apple lack money to build cars? The cash reserve of 1.26 trillion is not short of money
As we all know, building a car is a costly matter. Tesla, currently the most successful car company in the field of new energy vehicles, has suffered losses almost every year in the 17 years since its establishment, with a cumulative cash burn of more than US$5 billion (approximately RMB 32.7 billion). NIO has After its establishment, it spent more than 20 billion yuan to achieve today's results. Xpeng Ideal Auto has gone through a similar stage.
During this process, many new car companies failed. Dyson announced that it would give up building cars after burning 2.6 billion pounds (approximately RMB 22.8 billion), and Byton also After burning 8.4 billion yuan, it fell into trouble.
Dyson announced that it would give up building cars
This also shows that burning money may not necessarily lead to the launch of a new car brand, but it will definitely not be possible without money. As one of the world's most successful technology companies, Apple's cash flow reserves have always been among the best in the world. For Apple, burning money to build cars will not have any impact on its original business.
Data from Apple’s Q4 financial report this year show that Apple currently holds US$191.83 billion in cash (approximately RMB 1.26 trillion), which means that the amount of cash in Apple’s hands has exceeded the market value of many companies.
Apple, which has money in hand, is also willing to spend money on the car-making business. This year, Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty once analyzed that Apple will invest nearly 19 billion U.S. dollars (approximately) this year. A total of RMB 124.3 billion) for automobile research and development.
Data from Morgan Stanley also shows that the global automotive industry’s funding for research and development of automotive technology ranges from US$80 billion to US$100 billion (approximately RMB 523.5 billion to RMB 654.4 billion). In other words, Apple’s investment in a year accounts for more than 20% of the global automotive industry’s R&D funds. This also shows how willing Apple is to spend money on its automotive business.
4. Does Apple have the technology to build a car? It has over a hundred patents in hand
Talent and funds are not a big problem for Apple, so Apple, which has been working hard in the field of consumer electronics, can be described as a layman in the automotive field. Is Apple in the automotive field? What skills have you accumulated?
In fact, Apple’s technical reserves in the automotive field are also very deep. Since this year, Chedongxi has continued to track Apple’s automotive patents. Almost every two or three months, Apple has come up with several patents. Ten new patents.
In 2019, Apple obtained more than 30 patents in the automotive field, covering autonomous driving, AR navigation, in-vehicle VR, in-car payment, biometrics, smart hardware, off-car interaction, Virtual rearview mirror and many other fields.
Car-related patents obtained by Apple since 2019
The more creative patents include turning seat belts into touchpads to operate some in-car functions, and using smart car doors to prevent Accidents that occur when opening the door, projecting the rearview mirror image onto the side window, etc.
After entering 2020, Apple has also not stopped exploring automotive technology. As of December this year, Apple has won nearly 40 patents in the automotive field, in autonomous driving, smart cockpit, It is involved in intelligent car bodies, electric vehicles, and safety and security.
For details, please refer to Che Dongxi’s previous report "Apple’s determination to build cars will never die!" 30 new patents were added in one year, all of which are black technologies", "70 patents decrypt Apple car! "It's so imaginative that even Tesla can't catch up", "Apple's approach to smart cars is even wilder than Tesla's."
Judging from the status of these patents, although Apple has not officially launched its own models, it has accumulated a large number of patented technologies in vehicle manufacturing, autonomous driving, and smart cockpits.
At present, Apple has accumulated hundreds of automotive patents, and each new patent shows Apple’s new thinking about smart electric vehicles. In other words, although Apple Car has not appeared yet, when it is released, it will definitely be a pioneering work that subverts the automobile industry.
It is precisely because of its reserves of talent, technology and funds that many big players in the automotive industry regard Apple as their biggest opponent. In 2016, Musk said: "Tesla's biggest competitor is not Google, but Apple." At that time, Ford's then CEO Mark Fields also believed that Google and Apple would be Biggest rival, not GM or FCA.
Even if Apple’s road to building cars in the past four years has not been smooth, there are still people who believe that Apple cannot be ignored. At the 12th Automotive Blue Book Forum, NIO CEO Li Bin believed that in the high-end market, there will be only about five car companies left in the future, and Tesla and Apple will be among them.
5. How is Apple’s progress in building cars? The supply chain system is being built
Although Apple has accumulated a certain amount of technology in building cars, Apple has not announced the progress of car building to the outside world. The outside world is concerned about Apple’s car building situation. It's not very clear yet.
Currently, the progress of Apple’s car-making can only be revealed through suppliers and people familiar with the matter. From these few words, we can also get a rough idea of ??the progress of Apple’s car-making.
Since December, news about Apple’s car manufacturing has suddenly increased. On December 10, foreign media DigiTimes reported that recent news about automotive electronics and other related supply chains showed that Apple will build a car in the United States. To set up a factory to manufacture cars, the production plan, preliminary technology, and product parameters have been basically determined, and preliminary cooperation negotiations with automotive electronics suppliers have begun.
Apple is currently understanding the technical specifications, costs, product prospects and other indicators of automotive products. This is similar to the inquiry (RFQ) process in the industry. At the same time, many suppliers have begun to send samples to Apple. . DigiTimes also said that Apple is jointly developing self-driving chips with TSMC.
Just a few days ago, Taiwan Network’s supply chain companies once again spread the news that Apple is building a car. Taiwan Economic Daily said that Apple has recently begun to make stocking requirements to auto parts factories such as Heda, Bizlian, Heqin, and Tomita. These companies have already entered the supply chain of Apple cars.
It even stated in the article that due to the huge demand for Apple, manufacturers such as Heda and Bizlian were completely overwhelmed with orders.
Supplier information collected by Taiwanese media
And Reuters also reported today that Apple is currently conducting further research on power batteries and autonomous driving. In terms of power batteries, Apple is researching large batteries and CTP-like technologies. In terms of battery raw materials, Apple may also be researching lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In terms of autonomous driving, Apple will use multiple lidars. While Apple is developing its own lidar, it is also negotiating with potential lidar suppliers.
Judging from this information, Apple is indeed planning its first car and has begun contacting parts manufacturers. The launch of the first car is only a matter of time. But on the other hand, Apple is still conducting research on core technology.
6. What are the obstacles for Apple to build a car? Autonomous driving still needs a breakthrough
For Apple, which has repeatedly created disruptive products, it will not be satisfied with just building an ordinary car. However, if it wants to achieve such a result, Apple will undoubtedly face some challenges. hinder.
First of all, in terms of vehicle manufacturing, Apple has no experience in building vehicles independently, and there are still considerable shortcomings in core components such as power batteries.
Secondly, what Apple wants to build must be a smart electric car, of which autonomous driving will definitely become an important part. However, Apple currently has certain shortcomings in technology and data collection, and autonomous driving technology There aren’t many breakthroughs.
At the beginning of the year, the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) announced the 2019 self-driving road test data of 58 self-driving companies (56 of which have self-driving road test licenses).
Apple, which qualified for road testing in 2017, is also among them. However, judging from the results, Apple’s results are not good, and there is still a big gap compared with Google.
Road test data of Google Waymo and Apple
In 2019, Apple’s results were that the total road test mileage reached 7,544 miles (approximately 12,000 kilometers), with 70 road test vehicles. MPD (Miles Per Disengagement, the most intuitive indicator to measure the "driving level" of an autonomous vehicle) is 117.88 miles (approximately 189.7 kilometers). Google Waymo's total road test mileage in 2019 was approximately 1.45 million miles (approximately 2.33 million kilometers), with 148 road test vehicles and an MPD of 13,219.43 miles (approximately 21,200 kilometers).
In the most critical MPD data, Google Waymo’s performance is more than 112 times that of Apple. This means that Apple is still far behind Waymo in terms of autonomous driving technology solutions.
The Lexus RX450h used by Apple for self-driving testing
In terms of self-driving data collection, Apple’s ability to collect data from these 70 vehicles is far behind Tesla. After all, With the assistance of Shadow Mode, Tesla has more than 1 million vehicles collecting data on autonomous driving.
Generally speaking, Apple has not been able to achieve the leap from 0 to 1 on the road to building cars, and Apple has not made much achievements in autonomous driving technology, which is the most critical in the future competition in the automobile industry. This is also an obstacle that Apple has to face on the road to building cars.
7. When will Apple’s new car be released? It may be released in the next 2 to 3 years
As for Apple's car-making, apart from some of Apple's silent efforts, the most attractive thing to consumers is undoubtedly when the Apple car will be launched, and This discussion has been very hot recently.
Ten days ago, the media DigiTimes stated that the Apple car is expected to be officially unveiled at the Apple conference in 2024-2025. At that time, this news attracted widespread attention in the industry.
DigiTimes predicts that Apple Car will be unveiled in 2024-2025
Recently, comments from Taiwanese media have pushed this time forward by more than two years. Taiwan Economic Daily said that parts The supplier confirmed that Apple will release the Apple Car in September next year, at least two years earlier than originally planned. Its prototype has already been tested on the road in California, USA.
Today, Reuters also published an article stating that Apple plans to produce an electric passenger car in 2024.
In just over ten days, the launch time of Apple Car has jumped repeatedly at three time points: 2021, 2024, and 2024-2025, which makes the melon-eating masses extremely happy. Huh.
In fact, there has been a long discussion about the timing of Apple’s car debut. In 2016, Tesla CEO Musk said when he was a guest at the Code Conference: "If nothing happens, in five years, a car with a real Apple logo will drive on the road in front of your office window." But five years have passed, and the cars running outside the window are still BBA, Volkswagen, Toyota, and Tesla.
Musk
However, judging from the current news, Apple has indeed taken serious action in building cars. However, given that there are currently no overseas media reports or The so-called Apple prototype car was photographed. This statement that the new car will be released next year remains to be verified.
The most rumored time point now is 2024 to 2025. Both DigiTimes and Reuters are leaning towards this time point. Well-known analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also predicted that Apple Car will be launched between 2023 and 2025. release.
However, Apple’s R&D capabilities and execution capabilities are very good. With the supply chain already in place, waiting another 3 to 5 years to release an Apple car seems too slow and inconsistent with Apple’s history. style.
From this point of view, it will be more difficult for Apple Car to be released next year, but 2022 and 2023 may be key nodes. However, this is all speculation, and the release time of Apple Car still needs to wait for official confirmation.
8. What kind of car will Apple build? It will have three major features
Although the release time of Apple Car is still uncertain, it does not prevent us from making speculations about Apple Car. Apple’s continuously updated patented technology also provides us with enough clues.
Chedongxi has previously continuously tracked Apple’s car patents. Based on these patents, Chedongxi believes that Apple’s first car will have the following three characteristics.
1. The mechanical structure will be continuously optimized and the hardware will evolve toward intelligence.
Apple has always been a hardware company and has its own unique insights in developing hardware. Such features are retained in Apple’s car patents.
Apple’s car patent also made a lot of hardware designs. For example, the door hinges were redesigned to solve the problem of hitting surrounding vehicles and automatic cars when opening the door; the bumper was added It has a retractable function to reduce the damage caused by a collision; the color, reflectivity and transparency of the windows can be adjusted according to the needs of the occupants, which can not only ensure the privacy in the car, but also adjust the atmosphere in the car.
The structure of the car door in Apple’s patent
Apple has also applied for a number of patents for car suspensions. After the vehicle detects the current road conditions, it will actively adjust the suspension to allow the occupants in the car to The ride remains comfortable at all times.
Apple even wants to embed airbags into seat belts.
Seat belt airbags
But just improving the hardware is not Apple’s ultimate pursuit. In Apple's vision, a Touch ID or Face ID recognition device can be added to the door handle to improve security.
The vehicle's seat belt can also be made touchable. Users can define different function buttons on the seat belt, and adjust the vehicle's volume, answer calls, ask Siri, etc. by clicking and sliding. Function. Car audio and communication functions are realized through seat belts. The built-in microphone is closer to the driver's mouth, so it can get better sound pickup.
The driver can freely define the buttons and functions on the driver
By embedding biometric technology and sensors, it can check whether the driver is drunk and driving. The seat belts are heated to keep the driver and passengers warm. In addition, the front seat belts can control the rear entertainment system and can also use sunlight from the outside for solar power.
The improvement of hardware can also show Apple’s thinking on cars, while the redesign of seat belts, which have not changed for decades, demonstrates Apple’s disruptive thinking.
2. Virtual reality technologies such as AR and VR will appear in cars.
Apple’s patent last year considered the combination of VR technology and cars, hoping that users could conduct immersive VR video conferencing in the car. AR augmented reality has always been one of Apple's key technologies, and putting this technology into cars is also one of Apple's goals.
In this regard, Apple’s direction is AR-HUD. As of now, Apple has obtained four AR-HUD patents in one go. In addition to navigation, Apple's AR-HUD can also translate street signs.
AR-HUD can translate street signs
With AR-HUD, drivers can also talk directly on the windshield, and the size of the display screen can be the same as that of a real person, allowing video calls More sense of presence. During driving, the FaceTime call does not block the driver's view. The co-pilot can see the complete picture, and the main driver can only make audio calls. When the vehicle speed decreases or stops, the FaceTime screen will be displayed on the driver's side.
FaceTime video calls can be realized through the windshield
These functions are not very mature under the current technical conditions, but considering that Apple Car will not be launched in the near future, as With the evolution of technology, it is not impossible for these cool features to appear on Apple cars.
3. Autonomous driving will be the highlight.
Although Apple’s research and development in autonomous driving is not progressing rapidly, Apple still attaches great importance to autonomous driving, and many patents involve autonomous driving.
What is certain is that Apple’s autonomous driving technology will definitely use lidar. From 2018 to now, Apple has obtained multiple patented technologies on lidar.
In Apple’s patent, lidar can not only be used to identify and measure distances, but can also detect animals and pedestrians that may appear on the road in extremely dark light environments.
Infrared camera-assisted lidar ranging
At the same time, the patent document also shows other sensor components, including cameras, biological detection processors, lidar, and vertical cavity surface-emitting laser pulses. controller etc.
These sensors have different detection capabilities and can observe traffic information around and ahead of the vehicle in real time. The patent shows that Apple hopes to share the data after the sensors collect information to make the decision-making process of autonomous driving more accurate.
Apple has also considered the issue of charging self-driving cars. According to Apple’s patent, electric cars can drive themselves to a charging station and automatically plug in to charge.
For details, please refer to Che Dongxi’s previous report "Apple’s determination to build cars will never die!" 30 new patents were added in one year, all of which are black technologies", "70 patents decrypt Apple car! "It's so imaginative that even Tesla can't catch up", "Apple's approach to smart cars is even wilder than Tesla's."
In general, although the Apple car has not yet been unveiled, Apple has already conceived a blueprint for a car, such as full-body intelligent hardware, VR and AR technology entering the cockpit, and more accurate and intelligent automatic driving. Driving, these functions are very worth looking forward to, and the corresponding Apple car is also very worth looking forward to.
9. Will Apple produce its own cars? In the short term, OEM may be chosen
In terms of Apple's car manufacturing, there is another thing worth thinking about, that is, will Apple produce it in-house or OEM?
In the traditional consumer electronics field, the OEM model is very mature. Companies such as Foxconn and BYD are very successful in OEM. However, in the automotive field, OEM is not common. Only Magna will help car companies OEM some high-end models.
According to foreign media reports, Apple does have the idea of ??OEM. Reuters reported that Apple had previously negotiated with Magna to produce cars, but because Apple’s plan was not clear, the negotiations It didn't work out in the end.
At present, there are indeed few rumors about Apple building a factory. In addition, Apple has no experience in producing cars before. Building a factory on its own will still require a lot of processes to be cleared up.
The most suitable methods for Apple may be OEM production and the establishment of joint venture car companies for production.
But it should be noted that this is only in the early days of Apple Car. After Apple Car can reach a certain sales volume every year, Apple will definitely consider producing its own car.
This is not only related to Apple’s long-term development philosophy, but also to the general laws of the automobile industry.
10. When will Apple start its car-building plan? Already had ideas during the Steve Jobs era
Generally speaking, Apple's entry into the automotive industry was not a sudden whim, but an idea that had been in place for a long time.
The New York Times reported that Jobs planned to develop the car brand iCar during his lifetime. Former Apple executives also said that Jobs had the idea of ??building a car in 2008, but at that time he mainly focused on research and development. On the phone.
After entering the second decade of this century, Apple established a firm foothold in the mobile phone market and began to reconsider entering the automobile industry. In 2014, Apple launched a project codenamed "Project Titan" to officially develop cars.
At the beginning of its development, Apple had been focusing on the development of automotive hardware. Until 2016, when Bob Mansfield, Apple’s former senior vice president of hardware, took over the Titan car project, Apple’s R&D route had shifted from automotive hardware development. Shift to the development of autonomous driving systems.
In 2017, Apple CEO Cook said in an interview with Bloomberg TV: "Apple is focusing on self-driving systems, but it will not necessarily develop real hardware products." In 2018, Apple Testing of autonomous driving continues to upgrade and expand in scale.
But in 2019, information about Apple’s self-driving vehicles gradually decreased, and it was even revealed that Apple was laying off 200 people in the self-driving department. The only big news was that Apple acquired Drive.ai As a self-driving company, Apple seems to be keeping a lower profile in both self-driving and car-making fields.
Recently, according to Bloomberg, the current head of Apple’s autonomous driving department has been replaced again, with John Giannandrea, senior vice president of machine learning and AI strategy, as the head, and former head Bob Mansfield officially retired. Doug Field, executive director of Apple's Titan project, reports directly to John Giannandrea, who reports directly to Apple CEO Cook.
Apple Senior Vice President John Giannandrea
Since then, in recent times, news about Apple’s car manufacturing has resumed, and it seems that the launch of the first car is not far away. .
Judging from this journey, although Apple’s road to building cars has not been smooth, Apple has never given up on this plan. It is precisely because of this that Apple cars are worthy of users’ expectations.
Conclusion: Apple’s building of cars is never just a talk
After the automotive industry has undergone the transformation of the four modernizations, more and more cross-border players have entered the automotive field, but in these Among the outsiders, some succeeded, some sadly quit, and some continued to persevere.
Apple is a member of the camp that continues to persist. Although the progress is not rapid, Apple is not inferior in terms of talent reserves and capital reserves. With the investment of funds and talents, Apple has already It has obtained more than 100 automobile patents and is still preparing to build cars in an orderly manner.
At this stage, the information about Apple’s car-making is increasing again, which also shows that Apple’s car-making may be about to reach a new node. Apple, a new car player, is also entering the market. It would not be surprising if Apple suddenly shows off an Apple car at a press conference in the next few years.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.