The China Society of Automotive Engineers released the "Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" on October 27. The main point of the roadmap is that it was formulated under the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China, and China's automotive policies are likely to be implemented based on this roadmap in the future.
The document proposes an outlook from 2025 to 2035. It is hoped that all new cars sold before 2035 will be energy-saving cars, of which 50% will be pure electric cars and 50% will be hybrid cars. This roadmap has attracted widespread attention from the media and enterprises.
The release of a road map by the world's largest auto market will inevitably force some world auto companies to adjust their routes.
Unlike Europe, the road map implemented by China is not particularly radical. Prior to this, the United Kingdom announced a complete ban on new sales of gasoline vehicles and other vehicles in 2035 (although there is no car brand, the United Kingdom hopes to use this opportunity to vigorously promote the new energy vehicle industry and solid-state batteries and return to the strategic heights of automotive research and development). France plans to The sale of fuel vehicles will be banned in 2040, and Renault, Peugeot Citro?n and Fiat Chrysler are already working hard to change.
In this round of competition, the California government, which once led changes in the world and urged Toyota to develop hybrid power, General Motors to develop Volt, Nissan to develop Leaf pure electric vehicle and indirectly gave birth to Tesla, has been somewhat delayed in its response. , it just recently announced plans to ban the sale of gasoline vehicles in 2035.
This time, the California government should encounter much less resistance (it previously proposed a pure electric strategy, but was delayed by resistance from traditional car companies).
Some Chinese companies have also announced similar plans. Changan Automobile and BAIC Group have announced that they will stop the manufacturing and sales of gasoline vehicles by 2025.
In 2019, China's new energy vehicle sales ratio was only 5%. The roadmap proposes to increase it to about 20% by 2025, about 40% in 2030, and more than 50% in 2035. (More than 95% of new energy vehicles are pure electric vehicles)
The reason for formulating this plan comes from China’s announcement in September 2020 that it will achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. China, which ranks first in carbon dioxide emissions in the world, has begun to decarbonize. The explosive popularity of pure electric vehicles is indispensable, which has prompted a bold policy change to completely eliminate ordinary gasoline vehicles.
China’s trade war may also play a role. China hopes to use Roadmap 2.0 to get rid of the restrictions of foreign supply chains as much as possible, requiring foreign car companies to increase investment in China and increase the proportion of local manufacturing in China. In particular, the localization of basic components such as inverters and motors is increased. At present, there are many cases where core components of electric vehicles are imported from Japan and other countries. This will establish a more mature and complete supply chain, feed back the Chinese automobile industry, and incubate more Innovative automotive company.
If we follow Roadmap 2.0, Japanese car companies that have been slow to respond to this competition may be able to regain some face. Japanese car companies have rarely had the opportunity to interfere with the previous subsidy policies designated by the Chinese government.
Previously, the Chinese government focused more on encouraging independent car companies. After the fraud scandal, the government changed its thinking and provided subsidies to US-owned Tesla for the first time. However, the hybrid power promoted by Japanese car companies has always been because it has not enjoyed subsidies and are in an awkward position. The cost has led to high prices. Although the economy has excellent performance, the power has not been greatly improved. The style is close to that of traditional cars, and it is not as good as pure electric cars in terms of power and energy consumption.
Japanese hybrids without subsidy policies have been struggling in China for more than ten years and are still in the minority.
In today's global electrification trend, China has reiterated its plans for hybrid power, rekindling hopes for Japanese car companies that have always rejected pure electric power.
The Volkswagen Group invested heavily in developing the MEB electric platform and acquired Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and will soon launch the ID series of pure electric vehicles in China. (Germany)
General Motors released the BEV3 electric platform in 2020 and released an innovative battery. General Motors China CEO Bai Li claimed that the battery will be produced domestically with CATL. Ford is working hard to transform into pure electric vehicles. Mach-E, Ford's latest electric product, is about to land in China.
(United States)
China has given birth to a new generation of Internet car manufacturing forces such as NIO, Xpeng Motors, Li Auto, and WM Motor. Traditional car companies SAIC, GAC, and BAIC are all increasing their efforts in pure electric vehicles. Car investment.
Many companies that are about to abandon traditional internal combustion engines obviously lack enthusiasm for research and development of hybrid power, including but not limited to HEV, PHEV, and 48V hybrid technology.
Besides Honda and Toyota, the only car company that has the best chance of providing complete and competitive hybrid products is General Motors. General Motors obviously does not list HEV as a development priority.
Therefore, the renewed mention of hybrid power will greatly boost the performance of car companies such as Toyota, Honda and even Nissan (it is reported that Nissan will introduce the e-Power system). Compared with Volkswagen, Buick and Hyundai, which still focus on internal combustion engines at this stage, they may focus on lower-cost 48V systems in the future.
In 2021, China may provide preferential policies for hybrid models. If this policy is implemented smoothly, the promotion of mid- to low-end hybrid models will be a success, and hybrid models will greatly weaken the traditional internal combustion models. Competitiveness of models.
Toyota has made some arrangements to prepare for a rainy day in China. In 2019, it opened up patents related to electric vehicles such as hybrid vehicles for free, and also reached an agreement with Denso and others to provide basic systems for hybrid vehicles to Guangzhou Automobile Group and others through BluE? Nexus, a company jointly invested by ***.
In the future, if these systems are adopted on a large scale and costs gradually decline, hybrid vehicles will become more popular.
In fact, Toyota hybrid power is a particularly excellent technology for the transition from traditional internal combustion engines to pure electric power. When Toyota develops this type of technology, it believes that although this technology is only a transition, this transition period is particularly important. long. However, when China, the United States, and Germany promote pure electric vehicles, they tend to show a leap-forward development-skipping the hybrid stage directly. This is extremely unfriendly to Toyota, Honda and other car companies.
Toyota's development of hybrid power came from the pressure of the California Air Quality Commission's high standards and strict requirements on emissions. Toyota decided to make a risky investment and originally decided to launch it before 2000, but later moved it forward to 1996 due to the Kyoto Protocol.
Toyota succeeded. It was successful in both Japan and California, because the subsidy and incentive policies later introduced by the Japanese government all used Toyota hybrid as the standard, and California also "reciprocated" Toyota hybrid.
Subsequently, California issued more radical policies, saying that it would encourage several major car companies to develop zero-emission models. In view of the pessimistic expectations for pure electric vehicles, Toyota is not optimistic about pure electric vehicles at all. It just buys some batteries for a few SUVs and installs them.
Later, California was attacked by major car companies. It compromised on the decision of pure electric vehicles, postponed it again and again, and implemented the ZEV points strategy.
Since then, Toyota has become more determined that hybridization is a long-term transitional technology, and will no longer risk investing in pure electric vehicles. Toyota, which has always been known for its conservatism, will not accept plans to invest in pure electric vehicles. .
Japan once vigorously promoted the construction of nuclear energy, hoping to completely get rid of its dependence on crude oil from Russia (territorial disputes) and the Middle East (unstable situation), but then the nuclear power plant exploded, and the logic was immediately interrupted. As a result, Japanese car companies such as Toyota and Honda are not as good as other car companies in the competition of pure electric vehicles.
Under the trend of electrification, the living space of hybrid power in the middle ground in China is getting smaller and smaller. After accelerating technology iteration, there is no price difference between the current price of hybrids and many electric models of the same level after subsidies, such as the Camry Hybrid and Xpeng P7 and Model 3.
Today, Toyota has licensed its technology to GAC, and more car companies will join in the future. State-owned enterprises represented by GAC may be able to win some policy support and financial subsidies for Toyota hybrids, ensuring that Toyota has a longer path to invest in hybrids domestically.
Toyota and Honda are delighted with the release of Route 2.0, while General Motors, Ford and Chinese companies will accelerate their investment in pure electric vehicles. The market for traditional internal combustion vehicles will become smaller and smaller, and will gradually transition to the hybrid market, giving traditional internal combustion engine vehicle companies a long transition period.
Picture?|?From the Internet
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.