Let’s put it this way, the abandonment of the research and development of AT gearboxes is not because the automated manual can last for a few years, but because mainstream AT gearboxes such as Aisin and ZF are already very mature and the development of AT gearboxes is The cost and difficulty of packaging boxes are high, and there are also certain patent barriers.
On the other hand, it is well known that the trend of automobile development is new energy vehicles. Pure electric new energy vehicles do not use AT gearboxes or even require gearboxes. Now mainstream hybrid models have also adopted E-CVT. Gearbox, of course, BBA's hybrid models also have AT gearboxes.
We have just started to develop AT gearboxes now. By the time the research and development is successful and mass production is completed, it is estimated that new energy vehicles will have already occupied the market. Manufacturers will definitely not do such a thankless task. If it is really necessary If AT gearboxes are used, domestic models such as Trumpchi GS4 and Changan CS75 can just use Aisin AT gearboxes. With the funds and technical strength, it is better to invest in the research and development of new energy models.
In fact, many mainstream car companies have clearly stated a timetable for no longer producing fuel models. Therefore, it is more accurate to say that car companies are giving up AT gearboxes rather than giving up fuel models strategically.
On the other hand, AT, like CVT and dual-clutch, is still the mainstream automatic transmission at this stage. Compared with the latter two transmissions, AT is more balanced. Therefore, as long as automatic transmission models are not eliminated, AT gearboxes will still have a place, and when will they be completely eliminated? It is estimated that it will have to wait until new energy vehicles are fully implemented and fuel vehicles are completely banned. There is no unified timetable for this around the world.
Except for the earliest Hainan Province, which will completely ban the sale of fuel vehicles in 2030, other provinces in China have not yet set a clear timetable. According to the "Research on the Timetable for the Exit of Traditional Fuel Vehicles in China", the withdrawal of fuel vehicles Time conducted an analysis and forecast and pointed out that China is expected to achieve the complete withdrawal of traditional fuel vehicles before 2050.
Therefore, how many years can the AT gearbox last? When will it be eliminated? This question depends on the development speed of new energy models and the degree of policy implementation. Until then, AT gearboxes still have a place.