The area of ??Chinese cities varies greatly, so when talking about urban housing prices, it is necessary to limit the scope. For example, Xiamen, Sanya, and Shenzhen only have an area of ??1,699, 1,920, and 1,997 square kilometers respectively, while Chongqing, Beijing, Hangzhou, and Chengdu have an area of ??82,400, 16,400, 16,600, and 14,600 square kilometers respectively. It is impossible to talk about average housing prices. meaningful.
In this article, I limit the comparison of house prices to "central urban areas" and refer to second-hand house prices. Because in a large number of cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, there are not many new developments in the central urban areas, and the price is often determined by a single property.
Ten years later, the list of cities eligible to compete for the top ten housing prices in the "central city" is as follows:
Hong Kong, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Taipei, Xiamen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Sanya, Nanjing, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Qingdao, Suzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, Chengdu, Ningbo, Dalian, Hefei, Jinan, Zhuhai, Wenzhou, Dongguan
My judgment is that after 10 years, the following The city will become the top 10 most expensive cities:
First place: Hong Kong
If there are no serious impacts from major accidental events (such as earthquakes, wars, tsunamis, etc.), in 10 years After that, Hong Kong will still maintain its position as "the number one housing price in China". At present, housing prices in the central urban areas of Hong Kong are basically about twice that of the central urban areas in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Although Hong Kong's economic aggregate will be surpassed by more mainland cities, its role as "the largest gateway for China's economy to the world" will not change. China attracts 65% of foreign investment and China's overseas investment is close to 60%. %, all via Hong Kong. Hong Kong is also the first stop for mainland Chinese funds to allocate assets overseas. The huge amount of mainland funds and scarce supply will continue to push up Hong Kong housing prices.
Second place: Beijing
Beijing currently faces the most stringent property market controls among mainland cities. Looking forward to the next 10 years, Beijing will become China's only "super first-class city". Beijing has three major advantages, all of which are irreplaceable: first, Beijing is the gathering place for the headquarters of state-owned enterprises, and currently has the largest number of Fortune 500 headquarters in the world; second, Beijing is the largest capital center in China, and the capital currently gathered in Shanghai is 1.3 times that of Hong Kong, and about 1.3 times that of Hong Kong; third, Beijing is the city with the highest concentration of unicorn companies in the world. Unicorn companies account for a quarter of the world's and more than half of China's.
The third point is Beijing’s biggest advantage. This means that the size of Beijing’s new economy may be equivalent to “Shenzhen + Shanghai + Hangzhou”. In the future, unicorn companies will bring more funds to Beijing and create billionaires in batches. The emergence of Xiongan New Area cannot divert much purchasing power from the Beijing property market, because houses in Xiongan New Area are basically not for sale, so wealthy people from North China will still concentrate on buying houses in Beijing. The natural environment of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei will undergo great changes in the next 10 years.
Third place: Shenzhen
The funds currently gathered in Shenzhen are approximately equivalent to 60% of Shanghai’s; Shenzhen’s actual living population is approximately equivalent to 80% of Shanghai’s. But the area of ??Shenzhen is only 30% of Shanghai. In other words, the population and capital density of Shenzhen are at least twice that of Shanghai.
Shenzhen holds half of the country’s PCT international invention patents; the total market value of Shenzhen’s listed companies is equivalent to “Shanghai + Guangzhou”; Shenzhen’s unicorn companies are only slightly less than Shanghai’s. Shenzhen has many more large technology companies than Shanghai. Shenzhen is actually China's second largest new economic center after Beijing. Shenzhen's market freedom and innovative cultural atmosphere are also significantly better than Shanghai's.
The supply of "saleable residential" land in Shenzhen was zero in 2017. If we look at it on a 10-year average, in the four major first-tier cities with an actual living population of more than 20 million, the average supply of residential land in Shenzhen The volume is less than a quarter of that of Beijing and Shanghai. Shenzhen’s annual registered population and permanent population are the largest among the four cities. How Shenzhen’s housing prices will be controlled in the future is unimaginable.
Fourth place: Shanghai
Shanghai is still a city that is “constantly crowned by Beijing”. Whenever something good happens and Beijing is not prepared to keep it to itself, the first thing that comes to mind is basically Shanghai. In 2018, Shanghai will build the mainland's first free port and host the "China International Import Expo", which represents China's entry into a new era.
In last year's 2035 version of the "Master Plan", Shanghai was positioned as the highest-level city in China.
Shanghai currently has more capital than Hong Kong, second only to Beijing. China's financial factor markets are basically located in Shanghai. In addition, Shanghai is the second largest gateway connecting China's economy to the world. But unfortunately, Shanghai not only lags far behind Beijing in new economic development, but is also surpassed by Shenzhen and approached by Hangzhou. Shanghai’s culture is fundamentally about order and sentiment, which is not in line with the grassroots, wild, and tenacity of the new economy. This is Shanghai's weakness and it is difficult to change.
Fifth place: Hangzhou
Hangzhou’s economy is very active. The number of unicorn companies currently exceeds that of Shenzhen, and even exceeds that of Shanghai in some statistics. The total market value of listed companies in Hangzhou exceeds that in Guangzhou. Comprehensive evaluation shows that Hangzhou’s status in the new economy is second only to Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, ranking firmly in the top four. At present, the total amount of funds gathered in Hangzhou is about 3.7 trillion, second only to Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen.
Backed by Zhejiang Province, which has the most developed private enterprises in China, Hangzhou's economic structure is relatively reasonable and its ownership system is full of vitality. It is currently the city closest to "Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen" among the strong second-tier cities. Coupled with superior natural conditions and profound cultural heritage, Hangzhou’s future housing prices are also very promising.
Sixth place: Sanya
Hainan’s property market experienced a major turning point in September 2017, which many people have not yet fully realized. On September 22, 2017, Hainan implemented a comprehensive ban on reclamation and permanently stopped the development of new export real estate projects in the central ecological core area. On September 29, the Hainan Provincial Department of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued a notice to stop approving the construction of commercial housing with a floor area of ??less than 100 square meters (including 100 square meters).
At the 2018 "Two Sessions", the Secretary of the Hainan Provincial Party Committee emphasized that Hainan cannot become a "processing factory" for real estate, and "Hainan can build as much as the outside world wants."
This means that the supply of real estate in Hainan will be strictly controlled, especially sea-view houses will become very scarce. A number of Hainan cities with good coastlines, such as Sanya, will enter an era of "aristocratic" quality housing. The evolution of the U.S. real estate market tells us that housing prices in two types of cities will remain high for a long time: the first type is financial centers and technology centers, especially cities with "finance and technology all-in-one"; the second type is cities with beautiful coastlines A resort with a warm climate.
In the United States, the second type of cities are located in Hawaii and Florida. In China, it can only be distributed in Hainan. The most typical one is of course Sanya.
Seventh place: Xiamen
Xiamen’s housing prices are very high, and many people don’t understand it. Because Xiamen is not outstanding in terms of population or economic aggregate. Even within Fujian Province, it is not as good as Quanzhou in terms of GDP, and it is not as good as Fuzhou in terms of pooled funds.
But don’t forget: Xiamen has a “warm climate + beautiful coastline”. This alone is enough to rival Sanya, which is the first reason for the high housing prices. In addition, Xiamen is a city with rich cultural heritage. Of course, Xiamen also has an active private economy and new economy. In 2017, Xiamen had 10 A-share IPO companies, more than most provincial capital cities.
So, Xiamen is a bit like "Shenzhen + Sanya". As for Xiamen Island, there are islands in the sea and lakes in the islands. Its natural beauty is hard to abandon. Xiamen’s population growth rate has ranked among the top 8 in the country in the past few years. In Fujian, Xiamen is the only city that has escaped the "restrictions of regional characteristics". Therefore, although Xiamen’s housing prices are a bit overdrawn, they will remain high for a long time, especially on Xiamen Island where space is scarce.
Eighth place: Guangzhou
In the recent bull market, the order of rising housing prices in first-tier cities is "Shenzhen-Shanghai-Beijing-Guangzhou". Guangzhou is among the first-tier cities. Increase and supplementary increase nature. The next wave of market conditions may be the same.
The total amount of funds currently gathered in Guangzhou is 5.2 trillion, less than half of Beijing, equivalent to 72% of Shenzhen and 140% of Hangzhou. This shows that Guangzhou’s economic strength is strong and it still maintains a considerable advantage over “strong second-tier cities”. But the problem is that Guangzhou has been surpassed by Hangzhou in terms of the number of unicorn companies, the market value of listed companies, and the activity of private enterprises. Therefore, the next 10 years are very critical for Guangzhou - if it does well, it can close the distance with Shenzhen; if not, it may really be surpassed by Hangzhou. As for housing prices, since Guangzhou is still expanding into a large city, vigorously developing Nansha, and the central area of ??Guangzhou is expanding, the increase in housing prices in the central area will be restricted.
Ninth and tenth
In the next 10 years, the ninth and tenth places in central area housing prices will be between Taipei, Nanjing, Chengdu, Tianjin and Qingdao.
The current housing prices in Zhuhai are also relatively high, but the ranking may move downward in the next 10 years. Because Zhuhai is a low-level city and has a small population (it cannot meet the standards for building a subway), the public *** Service resources are not as good as those of established provincial capital cities and municipalities (such as Tianjin).
As for Wenzhou, because it is far away from the central city, it is difficult for it to develop into a central city. Housing prices will continue to be high and sideways, with no significant investment value. Wenzhou businessmen have a lot of wealth and will support Wenzhou's housing prices for a long time. From the end of 2015 to the end of 2017, the number of primary school students in Wenzhou dropped, which is a not good signal.
The "dimming starlight" of star prefecture-level cities and the rise of strong provincial capital cities have been the basic characteristics of China's urban competition in the past 10 years, and will continue throughout the next decade; in the next decade, " "Second-rate municipalities" will also have their "stars dim". In the future, cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Chengdu, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Changsha, Xi'an, and Hefei will usher in a period of great development.
The 8 cities with the largest real estate bubbles in the world
UBS Group reminds that the rising rate of housing prices in some cities in the world has shown a potentially unsustainable state, among which eight cities At risk of bubbles, highlighted in red on the chart.
Toronto: In the UBS report, Toronto's bubble risk index is as high as 2.12, ranking first in the world. Over the past five years, average house prices in this Canadian city have risen nearly 50% from 2011, and the risk of a bubble has risen sharply.
Stockholm: Bubble risk index is 2.02, ranking second in the world after Toronto. After adjusting for inflation, house prices in the Nordic city have doubled in the past 12 years.
Munich: The bubble risk index is 1.92, ranking third in the world after Toronto and Stockholm.
Vancouver/Sydney: The bubble risk index is both 1.80. In Sydney's case, since 1980, house prices in Australia's largest city have increased by an average of 3.5% per year, ranking first among major cities in the world in terms of this indicator.
London: Bubble risk index is 1.77. House prices in this British city have increased by 15% in the past 10 years.
Hong Kong: Bubble risk index is 1.74. The per capita living area in Hong Kong is only 14 square meters, or 150 square feet. In contrast, in Milan, Italy, you only need to work for 5.7 years to buy an apartment unit of 60 square meters, or 650 square feet. No wonder Milan's bubble risk index is as low as 0.09!
Amsterdam: The bubble risk index is 1.59, exceeding the 1.50 level.
According to UBS's definition, cities with an index exceeding 1.50 are at risk of real estate bubbles. The larger the index, the higher the risk. This is the case for the above eight cities.
If the index is between 0.5 and 1.5, it is a city with overvalued properties. European cities in this category include Paris (1.31), Zurich (1.08), and Frankfurt, Germany (0.92) and Geneva in Switzerland (0.83); San Francisco (1.26) and Los Angeles (1.13) in the United States; and Tokyo (0.90) in Asia.
If the index is between -0.5 and 0.5, it is a city with reasonable property valuation, including Boston (0.45), Singapore (0.32), New York (0.20) and Milan (0.09).
If the index is between -1.5 and -0.5, it is a city with undervalued properties. Chicago in the United States is an example, its index is only -0.66:
Look at last year The annual increase in house prices in one year, adjusted for inflation, is as high as 20% in Toronto, which is also the highest in the world, followed by Hong Kong with nearly 20%, and Amsterdam, Sydney and Munich all exceeding 10%.
From the past five years, after adjusting for inflation, San Francisco, Munich and Sydney have reached or exceeded 10%; Toronto and Stockholm have been close to 10%.
Bankers believe that once a city's average annual housing prices grow at 10%, it is expected to double in seven consecutive years, and this does not seem to be sustainable for long.
Among the cities tracked by UBS, there were only three major cities where house prices did not rise significantly last year: London, Milan and Singapore.
If you look at it from another angle and compare it in terms of housing affordability, Hong Kong, China, ranks first in the world.
Quoting the "2017 International House Price Affordability" list published by Demographia, an American urban planning consulting organization, Hong Kong has ranked first for eight consecutive years, and local housing prices are among the "extremely unaffordable".
The report stated that Hong Kong’s housing affordability has further deteriorated in the past two years, rising from 18.1 times in 2016 to 19.4 times, and is now at an all-time high. This means that an ordinary Hong Kong family would have to go without food and water for 19.4 years before they can afford a home.