From June 5438 to February 2020, the number of electric vehicles in China was 4.92 million. According to the development plan of new energy automobile industry in China, the sales of electric vehicles will account for 20% in 2025. Based on the annual sales of 25 million vehicles, it is estimated that the number of electric vehicles will reach 20 million in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 25% compared with 2020, with an average of 70 kWh/vehicle. Energy storage system will be installed 1400GWh in five years. Based on the price of 1 yuan /Wh, the market scale of new energy storage will be 1.4 trillion yuan.
At present, the batteries on the market can be roughly divided into liquid batteries, semi-solid batteries, quasi-solid batteries and all-solid batteries according to the different electrolyte States. Liquid batteries only contain liquid electrolytes, semi-solid batteries mainly contain oxide composite electrolytes, quasi-solid batteries mainly contain polymer composite electrolytes, and all-solid batteries mainly contain sulfide composite electrolytes.
The cathode material is mainly lithium ferrous phosphate, ternary material, lithium manganate and lithium cobaltate, and the cathode material is mainly graphene. According to the latest information from ICC, in 2020, the total output of the four major cathode materials in China will be 5 1.9 million tons /+20.8%, among which the lithium iron phosphate material will perform strongly, with the output reaching 1.42 million tons /+45.7%. The output of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate cathode materials were 73,800 tons and 92,900 tons, respectively, up by 24.8% and 265,438 0.6% year-on-year. The output growth rate of ternary materials is the slowest, only 7%, and the total annual output is 2 1 10,000 tons. The output of anode materials reached 460,000 tons /+28%. The global anode material market continues to concentrate in China, and the output of anode materials in China will account for about 85% of the global output in 2020.
Summary of policies:
On March 3rd, 2020, Li Keqiang, Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, People's Republic of China (PRC) decided to extend the purchase subsidy and purchase tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles for two years, which was originally planned to end by the end of 2020.
In July 2020, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the Ministry of Commerce issued the Notice on Launching New Energy Vehicles to the Countryside, which lasted from July 2020 to February 2020. During the period, the auto company made profits, and on this basis, it introduced a replacement subsidy of 5,000 yuan to promote entry-level electric vehicles to replace low-speed vehicles in the third and fourth lines and below. 202 1, the Ministry of industry and information technology cancels the white list of power batteries, and foreign capital such as LG Chem, SDI and SKI will re-enter the China market.
On June 27th, 2020 10, the technical roadmap of energy-saving and new energy vehicles 2.0 emphasized the control of overall energy consumption. It is required that the average fuel consumption per 100 kilometers of passenger cars will reach 4.6L, 3.2L and 2.0L respectively in 2025, 2030 and 2035. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach 20% in 2025 and 40% in 2030; By 2035, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles will reach more than 50%, and pure electric vehicles will account for more than 95% of new energy vehicles. Pure electric vehicles will become the mainstream of new sales vehicles, and public sector vehicles will be fully electrified. At the same time, the proportion of hybrid energy-saving vehicles will reach 50%, 75% and 100% in 2025, 2030 and 2035 respectively. In other words, by 2035, more than half of the newly sold cars in China will be new energy vehicles, and the rest will be hybrid energy-saving vehicles. The specific plan is as follows:
Main types of power batteries:
4680 battery: Panasonic will produce 4680 cylindrical battery for Tesla in 202 1 year. The diameter of the battery is 46mm, the length is 80 mm, the cell model is more than 2 1700, the energy density is increased to 300Wh/kg, and the output power is increased by 6 times. The cruising range of electric vehicles equipped with this battery can be increased by 16%, and a new battery can be used every kWh. In addition, the 4680 battery adopts a brand-new "ear-less" technology, so that the positive and negative fluids are directly connected with the cover plate/case, and the current conduction area is doubled, and the conduction distance is shortened, thereby greatly reducing the internal resistance of the battery, reducing the calorific value, greatly prolonging the battery life and improving the peak power of charge and discharge. Musk also revealed that the Tesla MODEL SPlaid three-motor high-performance version launched in the second half of 20021will be equipped with a new structure battery pack, including 4,680 lithium batteries.
Million-mile lithium battery:
Tesla's million-mile battery is a lithium-ion battery, which adopts a new generation of "single crystal" NCM532 anode and a new advanced electrolyte, uses a single crystal nickel-cobalt-aluminum electrode with a nickel content of 50% and a cobalt content of 20%, and adds artificial graphite, so that the electric vehicle can run continuously for 654.38+00000 miles (about 654.38+06 million kilometers). At present, the battery life used by Tesla is only 500,000 kilometers. "Ultra-long life battery" can continue to be used even if it is scrapped after loading, and it is less limited by external factors such as weather and terrain, and can reach 4000 charge and discharge cycles. The battery will be launched in China in cooperation with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd..
GM also said that it is developing an electric vehicle battery with a service life of 6.5438+00,000 miles, but has not announced a timetable for listing.
Honeycomb will launch two cobalt-free batteries in 2020, one of which has a capacity of 1 15Ah. The energy density of the battery cell is 245Wh/kg, and the service life of the battery reaches 15 or1.2000 km.
The volume energy density of lithium ferrous phosphate blade battery mass-produced by BYD is 50% higher than that of traditional battery, and its service life is over 6,543.8+0,000 kilometers. Its anode is lithium ferrous phosphate, which belongs to the category of lithium iron phosphate battery. The energy density of the system is 140Wh/kg, and the driving range is about 600 kilometers. Does not contain heavy metals, reducing environmental pollution; The volume becomes smaller and takes up less space. The weight is reduced, and the self-loss and energy consumption are reduced; The safety is improved, and the probability of battery cell explosion is reduced under the conditions of high temperature, overcharge, extrusion, acupuncture and the like.
NCMA ultra-high nickel battery: LG Energy plans to start mass production of NCMA batteries with 90% nickel content on 202 1 Q2, and supply MODEL Y and the next generation models to Tesla. The energy density of the battery is 16 1Wh/kg, the battery capacity is 77KWh, and the cruising range is 594km. Domestic Huayou Cobalt and Gems have prepared for the mass production of NCMA quaternary materials. Huayou Cobalt started the NCMA quaternary precursor material project with an annual output of 1.25 million tons on1October 8, with a construction period of two years. Grammy's NCMA quaternary precursor materials are being certified by customers.
Solid state battery
Solid-state battery is considered as the main development direction of power battery technology. The production of positive electrode (high nickel ternary direction) and negative electrode material (Si-C- Weilai or Si-doped -SAIC intellectual base) is mainly negative electrode material. Sulfide (CATL-2030) and oxide have made rapid progress. The sample passed the needle test, but the vehicle test is still needed. It is expected to be mass-produced and loaded in the second half of 20021. The solid electrolyte in the solid-state battery replaces the liquid electrolyte and the separator, which has the advantages of good safety, short charging time, monomer energy density (>: 350Wh/kg) and service life (>: 5000 times), but the contact area of solid electrolyte is worse than that of liquid electrolyte, which leads to its low activity, low conductivity and large internal resistance. Therefore, innovative architecture models, such as dual-machine architecture technology, CTP, CTC and blade battery, can be improved. However, it will take 5- 10 years for mass production of all-solid-state batteries. At present, French Bollor, Taiwan Province company and three domestic companies, and Taiwan Province province have a small amount of mass production, which are mainly used for consumer electronics and wearable devices.
20211/On October 9th, Weilai Automobile released a solid-state battery with a cruising range of over 1000 km on NIO Day, and plans to release a semi-solid battery pack in the fourth quarter of 2022, when the energy density of its battery will reach 360Wh/kg, and the battery pack will also be reduced from the current/kloc. However, the technology of removing diaphragm and electrolyte, pre-lithiation and cobalt-free in battery industry is still the development trend of the industry.
market structure
(1) installed capacity
65438+ 10/3, the latest data released by China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance shows that in 2020, the domestic power battery load totaled 63.6GWh, up 2.3% year-on-year. Among them, the loading capacity of ternary battery is 38.9GWh, accounting for 665,438+0.65,438+0% of the vehicle capacity, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 4.65,438+0%; The loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the vehicle loading, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and the recovery momentum of lithium iron phosphate is obvious. Judging from the market competition pattern, contemporary Ampere technology accounts for 50% of the domestic market, BYD accounts for 65,438+04.9%, and AVIC lithium battery and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech account for more than 5%. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. ranked first in the global market for four consecutive years, with a market share of about 24.8%; South Korea's LG chemical market share is about 22.6%; Panasonic accounts for18.3%; BYD, South Korea's Samsung SDI and South Korea's SKI accounted for 7.3%, 5.9% and 5. 1% respectively.
202 1 Latest installed capacity ranking: Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. > LG Chem > Panasonic > BYD > Samsung SDI> Skiing.
(2) Production capacity
The non-joint venture production capacity of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. in 2020-2022 is 90/ 150/2 10 GWh respectively, which will reach about 450GWh; After the completion of the expansion plan in 2025; The current production capacity of LG Chem is 120 GWh, which will be expanded to 260GWh by the end of 2023; SKI's current production capacity is 29.7GWh, and it is planned that the power battery production capacity will reach 85GWh in 2023, exceeding125 GWh; In 2025. By the end of 2020, BYD's battery production capacity will reach 65GWh, and the total production capacity including "blade battery" will reach 75GWh and 65,438+000 GWh in 2026 and 2022 respectively.
Current production capacity: LG Chem > Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. > BYD > Skiing.
Planned capacity: Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. > LG Chem > BYD > SKI.
(3) Supply distribution
In foreign markets, Panasonic is the main supplier of Tesla, and then introduced Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. and LG Chem. The power battery suppliers that create new forces in China are: Weilai automobile battery is exclusively supplied by Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., Li Wei Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD, Xpeng Motors is Contemporary Anpu Technology Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc. The battery suppliers of Weimar Automobile and He Zhong New Energy are relatively scattered.
The latest news of A-share related targets:
Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.: Since February 2020, the investment in new power batteries has been nearly 654.38+000 billion, and the new layout capacity has been 300 GWh. In 2025, the global power battery will enter the TWh era. As the global power battery leader, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is expected to occupy the first place in installed capacity and production capacity.
19 years 10 months 19 days, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. announced two patents for solid-state batteries: "A preparation method of solid electrolyte", in which a lithium precursor and a central atom ligand are dispersed in an organic solvent to form an initial reaction mixed solution; Dispersing borate in an organic solvent to form a modified solution; Mixing the initial mixed solution of the reaction with the modified solution, and drying to obtain an initial product; The initial product is ground, cold pressed and heat treated to obtain a solid electrolyte. The preparation method of that patent can obviously improve the conductivity of the solid electrolyte and is beneficial to improve the energy density of the all-solid battery. The invention relates to a sulfide solid electrolyte sheet and a preparation method thereof. In this method, sulfide electrolyte material and boron element doped in sulfide electrolyte material are mixed, and the relative deviation (B0. The ratio of B 100)/B0 to B 100 at any position on the surface of the electrolyte sheet is less than 20%, so that the combination of anions and lithium ions can be effectively reduced. At the same time, the doping uniformity and conductivity are improved, the interfacial impedance is reduced and the cycle performance of the battery is improved. BYD: Recently, China National Intellectual Property Administration announced BYD's patents in the battery field, including "a cathode material and its preparation method, a solid-state lithium battery", and provided the cathode material and the preparation method of the solid-state lithium battery. The cathode material can simultaneously construct lithium ion transmission channels and electron transmission channels, thus greatly improving the capacity, first cycle Coulomb efficiency, cycle performance and high rate performance of solid-state lithium batteries. The invention relates to a solid electrolyte of a lithium ion battery, a preparation method thereof and a solid lithium ion battery, so as to solve the problems of low energy density and poor safety of the existing solid electrolyte lithium ion battery. "A gel polymer battery and its preparation method" shows that BYD has made progress in the field of semi-solid batteries.
Guo Xuan Hi-Tech: 65438+10Wh/kg released new products on October 8th. Lithium ferrous phosphate 2 10Wh/kg flexible battery and JTM battery 2 10Wh/kg flexible battery are the products with the highest energy density in the lithium ferrous phosphate system presented in the world at present. Together with self-developed high-performance lithium ferrous phosphate materials and high-gram capacity silicon cathode, This product has greatly simplified battery materials, manufacturing process, battery performance, comprehensive cost and battery adaptability.
The MEB project developed in cooperation with Volkswagen considers the standard MEB module design of ternary and lithium iron chemical systems, and it is expected to be mass-produced and supplied in 2023.
Xinwangda: In April 2065438+2009, we received a letter from the supplier of Renault-Nissan Alliance, and will provide it with 1 157000 hybrid batteries for automobiles in the next seven years. It is conservatively estimated that the order amount will exceed10 billion yuan. In June, 2020, Nissan announced that it would cooperate with Xinwangda to develop the next generation car battery of e-POWER system.
Yiwei Lithium Energy: On June 5438+ 10/9, Yiwei Lithium Energy announced the production of Jingmen cylindrical battery product line. After putting into production, the annual production capacity of cylindrical batteries increased from 2.5GWh to 5GWh, with an annual output of 430 million batteries. This series of batteries will be used for electric bicycles.
Funeng Technology: Funeng Technology is a leading ternary flexible battery enterprise in China, which is jointly established with Geely. The total production capacity in the future is 1.20GWh, of which construction will start in 2026, 5438+0, not less than 20 GWh.