First, the definition of scientific and technological progress and economic growth
The definition of scientific and technological progress is defined by 1. 1
Technology is technology. According to Modern Chinese Dictionary, "science is a discipline and knowledge system that reflects the objective laws of nature, society and thinking" and "technology is the experience and knowledge accumulated by human beings in the process of utilizing and transforming nature, which is embodied in production and labor, and also refers to other skills". At present, the theoretical understanding of the connotation of scientific and technological progress is not completely consistent. To sum up, there are two explanations: narrow sense of scientific and technological progress and broad sense of scientific and technological progress.
Scientific and technological progress in a narrow sense refers to the progress of natural science and engineering technology.
In a broad sense, scientific and technological progress refers to the process of mutual promotion and transformation between scientific development and technological change. It mainly includes the following five aspects:
(1) Improve the technical level;
(2) Reforming the production technology;
(3) improve the quality of workers;
(4) improve the management and decision-making level;
(5) Improvement of economic environment.
In another sense, scientific and technological progress is a purposeful development process, which exists in all social activities. It includes not only the development and progress of natural science and technology, but also that of social science and technology. It includes not only the change and progress of production technology, but also the improvement and progress of management technology and decision-making technology; It includes both the progress of hard environment and the improvement of soft environment. In a word, scientific and technological progress is a systematic, comprehensive and dynamic concept.
1.2 definition of economic growth
1.2. 1 the concept of economic growth
Economists have different views on the definition of economic growth. The most common are two interrelated definitions. One view is that economic growth refers to the long-term sustained growth of the actual total output of a country or region. A more representative exposition is given by Samuelson in the book Economics: "Economic growth represents a country's potential GDP or national output increase. It can also be said that when a country's production may shift outward, it is to achieve economic growth. " Another definition is that economic growth is the per capita real output, that is, the continuous growth of per capita real output. Lewis gave a more representative exposition in the book Economic Growth Theory: ... Economic growth is ... the growth of per capita output "..."
Kuznets, an American economist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, mentioned a relatively complete definition of economic growth in his speech when accepting the Nobel Prize: "The economic growth of a country can be defined as the long-term increase in the ability to provide residents with an increasingly wide range of economic goods. This growth ability is based on improving technology. And the adjustment of the system and ideology it requires. " He also pointed out: "We regard the economic growth of all countries as the continuous increase in the output value of each person or each labor force, which is usually accompanied by population growth and extensive structural changes." From the above discussion on economic growth, we can see that economic growth is concentrated in the continuous increase of gross national output.
1.2.2 mode of economic growth
The process of economic growth is manifested in the combination and allocation of various production factors and resources. Different factors of production have different functions in economic growth, which makes economic growth present different characteristics, thus leading to different economic growth models.
There are many different classifications of economic growth modes in economics, including: from the perspective of economic growth efficiency, economic growth modes are divided into extensive economic growth and intensive economic growth. It is generally believed that the growth of extensive economic relies on a large number of capital, labor, raw materials and energy to promote economic growth, which is characterized by: one-sided pursuit of quantity, output value and speed, ignoring the quality and efficiency of growth; Economic growth is supported by consuming a lot of resources, and the improvement of factor productivity has little contribution to economic growth. Intensive economic growth promotes economic growth by improving the efficiency of living labor and materialized labor, which is characterized by paying more attention to the production efficiency of input factors, and the improvement of factor production efficiency contributes a lot to economic growth.
From the perspective of expanding reproduction, economic growth modes can be divided into extensional economic growth and connotative economic growth. This division is based on Marx's exposition in Das Kapital. Marx said: "if the production site is expanded, it is extension expansion;" The efficiency of the means of production has improved, and the connotation has expanded. " Accordingly, people think that there are two types of economic growth, namely, extensional economic growth and connotative economic growth. Liu Guoguang, a famous economist in China, thinks: "The so-called extended reproduction means expanding the scale of production by increasing the number of production factors, that is, increasing people, increasing investment, increasing materials and expanding production sites ..."; The so-called connotative expanded reproduction means that the expansion of production scale is realized through technological progress, the quality of production factors and the improvement of social production efficiency.
According to the different contribution rates of factors that determine economic growth, the economic growth mode is divided into economic growth mainly driven by the increase of factor input and economic growth mainly driven by the increase of factor productivity, which is the division method of western economics. This division divides the factors that affect economic growth into two categories, namely, the increase of factor input and the improvement of factor productivity. The increase of factor input refers to the increase of labor and capital input. The improvement of factor productivity is brought about by the development of knowledge, the progress of technology, economies of scale and the improvement of resource allocation. With the passage of time, the improvement of factor productivity will contribute more and more to economic growth. According to the above different explanations of economic growth mode, we can see that the meanings of extensive and factor input, intensive and productivity improvement are basically the same.
Therefore, there are two different ways to express the transformation of economic growth mode, that is, from extensive economic's growth mode to intensive economic growth mode and from extended reproduction mode to connotative reproduction mode. These two ways are related to some extent, but they cannot be equated. This is because the expansion of reproduction is not necessarily the growth of extensive economic. With the rapid development of science and technology and the continuous improvement of management level and management means, the contribution share of production factors such as labor and capital to economic growth has gradually declined, and the improvement of factor productivity has become the main source of economic growth. From the history of world economic development, science, technology and management tools are playing an increasingly important role in economic growth. The economic competition between countries is largely manifested in the competition of technology, talents and management. Therefore, the intensive economic growth model represents the direction of world economic development. In this sense, we believe that the mode of economic growth should be changed from extensive to intensive. There is no difference between extensional reproduction and connotative expansion reproduction, because economic growth not only needs the original enterprises to continuously tap the transformation potential, but also needs to establish a modern new enterprise with high technology and high management level that meets the requirements of the times. This extended replication is not a low-level repetition, but a higher-level and higher-level new construction. Therefore, the transformation of economic growth mode from extensive to intensive can better reflect the true meaning of the transformation of economic growth mode.
In the real economy, it is rare to rely solely on the increase of factor input or the improvement of factor productivity to promote economic growth. The most common is the combination of extensive and intensive, that is, economic growth is achieved by the increase of factor input and the improvement of factor productivity. In this case, if the contribution of the increase of factor input in economic growth is greater than that of the increase of factor productivity, the economic growth is mainly extensive; On the other hand, if the improvement of factor productivity contributes more to economic growth than the improvement of factor input, then economic growth is mainly intensive.
The quantitative sign to judge whether the mode of economic growth is extensive or intensive is:
(1) extensive type: E(P)(X), when economic growth mainly depends on the input of production factors;
(2) Strengthening: E(P)>E(X). At this time, economic growth mainly depends on the improvement of productivity, and the input of production factors is no longer the main driving force for economic growth.
Second, the theory of scientific and technological progress
2. 1 Marx's theory of technological development
Marx revealed through the analysis of labor, technology and other productive economic processes:
(1) The essence of technology is that technology is all kinds of material means that people have mastered in the process of labor, including machines.
(2) Science belongs to the category of productive forces, but science can only be transformed into productive forces through the intermediary or bridge of technology.
(3) The development level of productive forces is determined by the development level of science and technology, and social production plays a great role in promoting the emergence and development of science and technology; At the same time, the social and economic system has a strong restrictive effect on science and technology.
Marx's basic views on the relationship between science and technology and social economy can be summarized as follows: science and technology are the basic driving force of social and economic development; Conversely, social economy determines the emergence and development of science and technology, that is, the dialectical development process of interdependence and mutual promotion of science, technology and social economy.
2.2 Schumpeter's innovation theory
J.A. Schumpeter first put forward the concept and theory of "innovation" in the book Theory of Economic Development published by 19 12, and then supplemented it in Economic Cycle (1939). In Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, there is static equilibrium. Innovation is the driving force of economic development, entrepreneurs are the main body to realize innovation, and credit is the means of payment guaranteed by the expected income of new factor combination, which constitute the cornerstone of Schumpeter's economic development theory.
Schumpeter believes that economic development is achieved through innovation within the economic system. The so-called "innovation" is to realize an unprecedented new combination of production factors and conditions, and introduce this combination into the production system, or establish a new production function. Only when discovery and invention are introduced into production practice and can have a shocking effect on the original production system and mode is innovation. Schumpeter put forward the word "innovation".
(1) adopt a new product, that is, make a product that consumers are unfamiliar with, or a new product that is qualitatively different from the previous product.
(2) adopt new production methods, that is, adopt methods that have never been used by industrial departments. This method may not be based on new scientific discoveries, but it may be a new way to deal with a product in commercial operation.
(3) to open up a new market, that is, to open up a market that has not yet entered the relevant countries or specific industrial sectors, regardless of whether this market existed before.
(4) to obtain new sources of supply, that is, to obtain new sources of supply of raw materials or semi-finished products, whether such sources already exist or are created for the first time.
(5) to realize the new organization of any kind of industry, that is, to form a new form of industrial organization, create a monopoly position or break it.
According to Schumpeter's explanation, the innovation around the above five aspects, as a whole, represents the whole process of a new invention from the initial thinking conception to the final commercial success through research and development, which embodies the organic combination of technical possibility and market opportunity. In the process of integration, the pull of market demand and the promotion of technological development are two indispensable aspects. Schumpeter emphasized the combination of technology and economy through the creative activities of knowledgeable and talented entrepreneurs. In his theoretical system, innovation is mainly an economic concept, which refers to introducing something new into the economy and is a mechanism to keep running. Technically, it is not completely equivalent to a new invention. A new technology or technological invention becomes an innovation only if it is applied to economic activities and brings profits and potential profit prospects.
2.3 New growth theory
2.3. 1 solo's neoclassical growth model of technological progress
In the early days after World War II, R.F. Harold &; E.Domar) growth model, which regards population, capital, technology and other factors as long-term changes, and analyzes their role in economic growth and their relationship with other variables in continuous time. The model assumes that the ratio of production technology to capital output remains unchanged, and the economic growth rate actually depends on the savings rate, emphasizing that capital accumulation is the decisive factor of economic growth. However, when this model is used to explain the fact that there are considerable differences in economic growth between developed countries with the same level of capital accumulation after the war, it is not satisfactory. At the same time, the rapid development of science and technology in developed countries plays an increasingly important role in economic growth. The defects of Harold-Thomas model and new economic phenomena have been compensated and valued by Solow and others' neoclassical growth model, which emphasizes technological progress.
In 1956, R. M. Solow proposed a growth model to accelerate the decisive role of technology. It describes the previously fixed capital-output ratio and labor-output ratio as technological changes. The model shows that economic growth depends not only on capital growth rate and labor growth rate, but also on the weight of the relative influence of capital and labor on income growth, and also on technological progress. Solow's outstanding contribution lies in distinguishing the "growth effect" caused by the increase of the number of factors from the "horizontal effect" caused by the improvement of the technical level of factors. Here, for the first time, technological progress is taken as a separate factor and systematically studied in the theory of economic growth, thus completely describing and explaining the reasons for economic growth. Since then, economists such as Denison have further confirmed the conclusion of Solow's model in the empirical analysis of economic growth, and further put forward that in the measurement of economic growth, the total economic growth is far greater than the growth rate of capital and labor input, that is, there is a "surplus value" of growth. E.F. Benison clearly attributed this "surplus value" that cannot be explained by factor input to technological progress, and thus concluded that technological progress is economic growth.
2.3.2 Mansfield's Theory of Technological Innovation and Diffusion
Mansfield believes that the main driving force of scientific and technological progress comes from technological innovation and the continuous spread of new technologies. There are three basic factors that affect technology diffusion in the same sector:
(1) imitation rate of new technology.
(2) The relative profitability of new technologies.
(3) Investment required for new technology.
In addition, there are four supplementary factors, namely (1) the number of years the old equipment has been used before being replaced, (2) the annual growth rate of the sales volume of the industrial sector in a certain period, (3) the year when a certain technology in the industrial sector was first adopted by enterprises, and (4) the stage in the economic cycle when a new technology was first adopted.
2.3.3 Theory of the relationship between technological innovation and market structure
American economists Kaman and Schwartz studied the relationship between technological innovation and market structure based on monopoly competition theory, and regarded scientific and technological progress as "technological innovation".
(1) Competition degree, enterprise scale and monopoly power are three important factors or variables that determine technological innovation. Competition leads to the necessity of technological innovation, the scale of enterprises affects technological innovation, the size of market prospects, and monopoly forces affect the persistence of technological innovation.
(2) The most favorable market structure for innovation is the market structure between monopoly market and perfect competition market, which not only has the threat of competitors, but also can maintain the lasting benefits of technological innovation.
(3) Consistent with the above two points, technological innovation can be divided into two categories: one is technological innovation driven by monopoly prospect, that is, innovation adopted by enterprises in anticipation of obtaining monopoly profits; The other is technological innovation driven by competitive prospect, that is, technological innovation adopted by enterprises worried that their current products may lose profits under the conditions of imitation or innovation by competitors.
2.3.4 Romer's New Economic Growth Theory
Paul Romer, an economist at the University of California, believes that knowledge and technology are important factors of production and can improve the return on investment. In his view, there are four factors of production: capital, unskilled labor, human capital and new ideas. He attributed the improvement of human capital and new ideas to the progress of science and technology.
Increasing income is the core of the new growth theory. Romer's income increasing model not only considers capital and labor, but also takes knowledge or technology as an endogenous and independent factor into the model, and knowledge is regarded as a special input in the production process. Romer decomposes knowledge into general knowledge and specialized knowledge, which can be used by all economic entities for free and can produce general economies of scale. Expertise is put into production in the form of highly applied scientific and technological inventions or patents, which will inevitably produce incremental benefits of factors. The integration and connection of the two kinds of knowledge will not only make the human capital of knowledge and technology generate incremental income, but also increase the income of other input factors such as capital and labor. This incremental income may form monopoly profits, and the obtained monopoly income can be the source and motive force of knowledge innovation and research and development (R&: D).
Romer pointed out: "The product of innovative thinking is different from other things, and it has its own characteristics." In his view, land, machinery, capital and resources are scarce, but thinking and innovation and their corresponding knowledge are abundant. When it spreads, it can be copied at a very low cost. In other words, the law of diminishing returns is to increase economic benefits by extension, and the proportion will become smaller and smaller, while applying intelligent independent innovation.
Romer also pointed out from the perspective of economic investment that knowledge or technology comes from the investment decision-making efforts made by manufacturers to maximize profits, and its overall increase must be proportional to the resources people contribute to it. In other words, the scale of knowledge or technology depends on the level of R&D investment. He believes that in a virtuous circle in which investment stimulates knowledge accumulation and knowledge accumulation in turn promotes investment, the continuous increase of investment can permanently increase a country's long-term growth rate.
2.3.5 Analysis of human capital factors in technological progress
The emergence of the theory of technological progress is a great progress in economics, but the factors of technological progress are often limited to certain material capital, and the human factor in technological progress has not been paid attention to. After entering the 1960s, American economist Schultz extended the technical elements of production to human capital. He believes that human capital will generate more and more benefits, and human capital, that is, the improvement of people's knowledge, ability and health level, contributes far more to economic growth than capital and labor.
Schultz's theory of human capital is further deepened in Lucas model, and he also emphasizes that science and technology are revolutionary productive forces. Lucas divides capital into two forms: material capital and human capital, and divides labor into two types: "initial labor" and "professional human contribution". He also pointed out that human capital is an endogenous variable of economic growth, and specialized human capital consists of "learning by doing" in education and workplace, which is precisely the accumulated specialized human resources.
2.3.6 Kuznets's exposition of the role of knowledge
Kuznets, a famous contemporary American economist, emphasized that one of the important factors of modern economic growth is the growth of knowledge stock. The stock of knowledge, including technical knowledge and social knowledge, is increasing, and its utilization has become the source of economic growth. But knowledge itself is not a direct productive force, and it goes through a series of intermediate links, mainly including four links: first, increasing knowledge through scientific discovery; The second is to test the practical application of existing knowledge through invention; Third, through innovation, the invention is initially applied to production; Fourthly, through improvement, the process of invention and its application can be improved. Through the above four links and a series of transformation processes, the knowledge stock will eventually become a real productive force.
2.4 Comments on the above theory
Whether it is the systematic view that Marxism science is the primary productive force, or Schumpeter's innovation, long-term economic theory and modern economic growth theory, they all examine scientific and technological progress and economic development from their own unique research angles, which directly or indirectly reflect and condense the process of human industrialization. Scientific and technological progress is gradually deepening its understanding of the source of economic development and major changes in the power structure. In particular, Schumpeter's innovation theory is unique in economics and can better explain the qualitative change in the process of economic development. In this theory, innovation is the concept of "new combination of elements", which can be extended to explain the endogenous nature of science and technology and better reflect the essence of the process of scientific and technological innovation. Its concept of entrepreneur can reflect the essence and particularity of actors in the process of innovation. The concepts of innovation, entrepreneur and credit creation are not only applicable to capitalism, but also can be extended to meet the needs of socialized mass production, and their theoretical framework has practical guiding significance. The limitation of this theory is that its method is essentially non-quantitative, so it is difficult to use it as a carrier of quantitative innovation concepts.
The development of new growth theory conforms to the trend that scientific and technological progress plays an increasingly significant role in economic growth, expanding technological progress from material factors to human factors and from exogenous variables to endogenous variables of economic growth. The new growth theory regards knowledge and technological progress and specialized human capital as comprehensive elements of economic growth, and holds that they can not only produce incremental benefits, but also break through the "growth limit", thus affecting the increasing scale benefits of the whole economy. In order to ensure the long-term economic development, an important contribution of the new growth theory is to give a realistic explanation of the endogenous nature of technological progress, and its new view of increasing factor income has found a reliable source and motive force for the long-term sustained economic growth. Although this theory has achieved great success in explaining the role of technological progress, it solves the indirect measurement problem of cumulative effect of technological progress to some extent by using the production function method, but its theory itself is still one-sided: first, it focuses on technological progress rather than technological innovation, because technological progress can be regarded as a macro continuous variable, while innovation cannot. Technological progress can be said to be the cumulative effect of innovation. Obviously, in its theoretical framework, it cannot explain the qualitative and revolutionary economic changes brought about by innovation. Second, it tries to unify technology and capital with the heterogeneity of capital. How to measure the technical capital quantitatively is still difficult to solve. Thirdly, economic institutional variables are still exogenous, which cannot reflect the influence of institutional variables on production technology and economic development, and it is difficult to explain the influence of science and technology as the primary productive force on production relations and the reaction of production relations to scientific and technological progress.
Third, the relationship between scientific and technological progress and economic growth.
There are many factors that affect economic growth, such as scientific and technological progress, labor force, capital, industrial structure and the combination and improvement of various factors in the production process. Among these factors, scientific and technological progress is the most important. Every major economic growth in the history of human economic development is triggered by new breakthroughs in science and technology, and the great impetus of technological progress to economic development has been confirmed by economic theory and historical facts.
The influence of scientific and technological progress on economic growth refers to the process that all factors can combine a certain number of production factors to produce more products (use value). It can be summarized as the following four aspects: improving the technical level of equipment; Reform technology; Improve the quality of workers; Improve management decision-making level, etc. That is to say, among the factors that affect economic growth, the part that excludes the factors of capital increase and labor quantity increase is the factor of scientific and technological progress. Therefore, the effect of scientific and technological progress on economic growth is an embedded expanded reproduction.
With the rapid development of science and technology and the transformation of economic growth mode from extensive to intensive, science and technology, as a special human activity and social phenomenon, has already changed from individual exploration of natural phenomena to conscious economic and social activities of enterprises and governments, and the relationship between scientific and technological progress and economic growth is getting closer and closer. On the one hand, scientific and technological progress has become the main driving force and decisive restricting factor of economic growth. In today's world, innovation ability has become a decisive factor in economic competitiveness. A country or region can win the initiative in economic and social development if it has made great achievements in scientific and technological innovation. On the other hand, economic development has laid the necessary economic foundation and material conditions for scientific and technological progress, thus making scientific and technological progress faster and with higher quality.
3. 1 scientific and technological progress is the source of economic growth
To say that science and technology is the primary productive force does not mean that science and technology is an independent factor of production, but that science and technology is a potential productive force, which can promote economic growth by improving the efficiency of other factors of production. The promotion of science and technology to economic and social development is reflected in the following aspects: first, science and technology are the primary productive forces, and scientific and technological progress can bring about rapid development of productive forces. Among the three factors: scientific and technological progress, capital accumulation and labor input, scientific and technological progress is the primary factor to promote economic growth; Second, scientific and technological innovation is the driving force of industrial structure adjustment and upgrading, and scientific and technological progress plays an important role in traditional industries to gain new vitality by changing the growth mode of extensive economic; Third, scientific and technological progress and innovation constantly promote the emergence of high-tech industrial clusters and constantly cultivate new economic growth points.
3. 1. 1 Scientific and technological progress determines the formation of the world economy.
Throughout the history of world economic development, from the establishment of production modes in various countries to the formation of world markets, thus forming a unified world economic system, all depend on the role of scientific and technological progress. The concept of economic globalization that has emerged in recent years is actually determined by scientific and technological progress. With the development of science and technology, information technology makes information transmission faster and more convenient, and promotes the formation of a global economic coordination mechanism. At present, the resource base of international division of labor is weakening. The technical foundation has been greatly strengthened, and the level of scientific and technological progress has become the main basis of international division of labor. Due to the progress of science and technology, the scale, speed and structure of contemporary international exchanges have undergone tremendous changes, and the production and consumption of countries are increasingly inseparable from the world market. International investment has greatly promoted economic globalization and has developed rapidly in recent years. This is also because scientific and technological progress has improved the level of productivity and greatly increased the opportunities for international investment. Industries such as finance, transportation and communication have achieved unprecedented development and provided international investment.
3. 1.2 The contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth is increasing.
After the world economy forms an organic whole, although there is a problem of unbalanced development, the total economic output is increasing. Judging from the development history of science and technology in the world, the proportion of science and technology in promoting economic growth is rising, and its contribution rate to economic growth is increasing. The contribution rate of American scientific and technological progress to economic growth is increasing year by year. From 33.8% of 1929- 194 1 to 7 1.9% of 1964- 1969. When the world's major capitalist countries entered the 1950s, the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth also exceeded that of other factors of production.
Judging from the level of China's economic development, although the contribution rate of scientific and technological progress to economic growth is far from that of developed countries, it is also rising. According to the report of Northern Network, the contribution rate of Shanghai's scientific and technological progress to economic growth was 38.7 1% in 1996, close to 44% in 1998 and exceeded 50% for the first time in 2000.
3. 1.3 scientific and technological progress can greatly improve the productivity of various production factors.
First of all, scientific and technological progress can greatly improve labor productivity. Due to the continuous progress of science and technology, on the one hand, the quality of workers has been generally improved; On the other hand, the continuous improvement of the technical equipment level of the labor force has greatly promoted the improvement of labor productivity. Many economic authorities and economists, including alan greenspan, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Reserve, agree that since the middle and late 20th century, the improvement of labor productivity has been an important factor to promote the economic growth of the United States, and its main driving force is the wide application of high technology, which has greatly improved the production efficiency of all walks of life. Facts have proved that science and technology can change laborers from physical type to scientific type, thus improving laborers' labor productivity.
Secondly, scientific and technological progress can optimize the performance of the means of production and improve its efficiency. Scientific and technological progress is embodied in: improving product or engineering design, developing or popularizing new technology, improving or updating equipment, and prolonging the service life of production tools; It can reduce energy consumption and material consumption and improve the utilization efficiency of labor objects; Scientific and technological progress can continuously introduce new products and increase the added value of products, so as to increase output and improve capital efficiency under the condition of constant capital investment. Scientific and technological progress always represents advanced productive forces and is the decisive factor to improve the efficiency of production factors and optimize the performance of production materials.
3. 1.4 scientific and technological progress promotes the transformation of economic growth mode
The transformation of economic growth mode is mainly from quantity speed (extensive) to quality benefit (intensive). The biggest premise of quality and efficiency-oriented economic growth mode is scientific and technological progress. Traditional economic theory focuses on labor, capital, raw materials and energy, and holds that knowledge and technology are external factors affecting production. In the knowledge-based economy, knowledge is included in the production function, and knowledge can provide a return on investment. This in turn can strengthen the accumulation of knowledge, and people can achieve economic growth by creating more effective production organization methods and producing new and improved products and services. /kloc-the economic development since the 1990s provides an example that knowledge acts on the economy, which leads to sustained economic growth. Due to the rapid development of computer, software and communication industries, some technologically advanced countries have experienced high economic growth rate, low inflation rate and low unemployment rate year after year.