If China really has a middle class worthy of the name, how many people are there in China? Who constitutes China's middle class?
The Urban Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics adopted multi-phase sampling in 8 provinces (municipalities) including Hebei, Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Sichuan, Gansu and Liaoning from May to July 2002. 3,997 households in large, medium and small cities were used as valid sample households to conduct China's first urban household property survey. Survey results As of the end of June 2002, the average total property value of urban households in my country was 228,300 yuan. Considering that this is the total property value per household, this is already an astonishing figure. Therefore, as soon as the report was published, it aroused many doubts. However, an even more astonishing figure appeared when the Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics announced that the average household wealth of urban residents in Beijing reached 475,000 yuan, more than twice the national average of 228,300 yuan. As soon as this number was announced, public opinion was in an uproar.
We don’t want to discuss the authenticity and credibility of the Bureau of Statistics data. We can measure the size of the middle class in China through another way. In early 2003, the People's Bank of China released a statistical report. As of the end of February 2003, the balance of domestic and foreign currency savings deposits of Chinese residents had exceeded 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.03 trillion yuan. Another set of data, also known as social legend, shows that 51% of domestic residents’ savings deposits are concentrated in the hands of a small number of 20% wealthy individuals and families. In other words, this means that 20 wealthy individuals and families account for more than half of my country’s 10 trillion residents’ savings deposits. For the convenience of calculation, if we regard each deposit account as a family, and the number of people in each family is calculated as a standard 3 people, China's 1.3 billion population can be divided into 430 million families, of which 20, that is, Less than 90 million families own more than 5 trillion of the 10 trillion domestic residents’ savings deposits, with an average household of nearly 60,000 yuan. If 1/3 of them can be classified as the so-called middle class, then China’s middle class There are less than 100 million people, only tens of millions at most. We can also look at another set of data. It is reported that by the end of 2002, Beijing had more than 900,000 private cars. If we assume that there is a "middle class" behind every private car, then there are more than 900,000 middle class people in Beijing. If all provinces and cities across the country reach Beijing's level, there will be a middle class of nearly 30 million people across the country. In addition, there is another saying that China has 1,000 billionaires and 3 million millionaires. If this statement is reliable, then it is difficult to believe that some "experts" are willing to publicize that the current middle class in China exceeds 200 million people. statement. In fact, we believe that China's middle class of about 30 million people is a relatively reliable figure.
The middle class we are talking about here is a relatively "high standard" middle class, that is, economically, the per capita annual income reaches 10,000 to 50,000 US dollars. The fact that everyone sees is that China’s middle class is mainly concentrated in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and a few cities in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta. Only with such an income can it be possible to afford a decent apartment in these places. "Middle-class standard" commercial housing meets the implicit standard that the middle class has at least one house and most of them own a car.
Assets exceed 80 trillion yuan and wealth comes from various sources
The report points out that China’s private wealth is growing rapidly. At the end of 2012, China’s total personal investable assets were approximately 83.1 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.7% year-on-year in 2011. . China's mass affluent class has grown rapidly in the past two years. The number of this group reached 7.94 million in 2010 and 10.26 million in 2012. Based on the growth rate of personal assets in recent years, this group will reach 12.02 million by the end of 2013. The private wealth controlled by this group is also increasing rapidly, and their per capita investable assets are around 1.33 million yuan.
The source of wealth for this group is basically salary or company dividends, and some comes from companies, real estate investment, stock market investment and other channels. 42.3% of the mass affluent class have two or more sources of wealth.
Women who are no more than 40 years old use the joint property of their spouses as their source of wealth, which shows that wealthy women have higher asset independence. Profit from real estate investment and stock market investment, which have always been the main channels for investment, also accounted for a large proportion as sources of profit, with 18.8 and 16.3 respectively. After having a certain economic foundation, this group pays more attention to spiritual happiness and quality of life. They love traveling on vacation and pay attention to their health, spending a lot of time doing sports and fitness. They are also interested in collectibles. They not only increase their taste in life and cultivate their sentiments, but also regard collection as one of the ways of investment.
The majority of people born in the 1960s and 1970s account for 80% of the population who do not want to immigrate.
The majority of the wealthy class are born in the 1960s and 1970s. Those born in the 1970s account for more than 30% of the total number. After a certain amount of social accumulation, these people have become the backbone of the mass affluent class. The post-80s generation is in a period of rapid growth in career development, and its proportion cannot be underestimated. Data show that this group of people generally have higher academic qualifications, with more than two-thirds of them having a bachelor's degree or above. From this, their overall image can be summarized as a group of young and middle-aged people with a high cultural foundation. Men slightly outnumber women by less than 10 in the overall number, and the gender gap is not obvious.
Basic composition
According to a survey by the Urban Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics, the income standards of domestic urban residents in 2014 showed a ladder-like distribution.
There is a saying that the 10 richest types of people in contemporary Chinese society are: 1. Private business owners and self-employed people; 2. State-owned enterprise contracting or leasing operators; 3. Successful people in the stock market; 4. , Senior employees of foreign-funded enterprises; 5. Patent personnel with technical inventions; 6. Stars in the entertainment industry and sports; 7. Some CEOs of the new economy; 8. Some lawyers, agents and advertising personnel; 9. Some owners National personnel; 10. Some scholars and experts. This statement is basically consistent with the survey conducted by the Urban Survey Team of the National Bureau of Statistics, and also proves the reliability of this "folklore" from another aspect. The largest number of China's middle class should come from the above 10 categories of people. Among them, those who deserve special attention are private business owners and senior employees of foreign-funded enterprises. Privatization, private enterprise has become a manufacturing machine for our country's middle class. Similarly, multinational companies such as Motorola are replicating the "scarce" middle class for China like an assembly line.
There are many opinions about the future of China’s middle class. Someone from the National Information Center said in Shenzhen: "In the next five years, 200 million people in China will enter the middle class consumer group." This person defined the middle class as "having a stable income and the ability to buy a house by themselves." People who own cars and can use their income for travel, education and other expenses.” His confidence is shocking, but I don’t know what the basis for his remarks is. The famous Merrill Lynch also predicts that the number of China's middle class will reach 350 million in the next 10 years. But a U.S. court ruling tells us that even international companies like Merrill Lynch often lie for the sake of their own interests. Therefore, we need to listen to such "pleasant" words from both sides.
There is no doubt that China will need more middle class in the future. In addition to the above-mentioned 10 wealthy people and some national public officials, Peking University professor Xiao Zhuoji believes that in the future, China's middle class will mainly come from the following five types of senior talents: First, scientific researchers who can transform scientific and technological achievements into industry. They invest their research results in the company in the form of technology shares. If the company goes public, they can receive large dividends. Second, middle and senior managers in the financial securities industry. It does not refer to employees within the current system, but to staff of private and foreign-owned enterprises. Third, professionals from intermediaries, such as lawyers, accountants, appraisers, etc. The income of these people will be greatly increased after China joins the WTO. Fourth, Chinese middle- and senior-level personnel in foreign-funded enterprises. In Beijing, there is already a so-called "first generation" class, that is, the chief representatives of foreign companies in China. They receive equal pay for equal work as their counterparts abroad and enjoy low domestic consumption. Fifth, some private entrepreneurs. In addition, some investors in the stock market may also become members of the middle class.
Niu Wenyuan, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference and chief scientist of the Sustainable Development Strategy Group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, proposed five criteria to judge whether a country has formed a large enough middle class.
·First, whether the urbanization rate reaches more than 70%;
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·Two, whether the "white-collar" social labor force is larger than or at least equal to that of "blue-collar";
·Third, whether the Engel coefficient has dropped below 0.3 on average;
· Fourth, whether the Gini coefficient is controlled and maintained between 0.25 and 0.30;
·Fifth, whether the average number of years of education per capita reaches more than 12 years.
The World Bank’s annual Global Economic Outlook report released on December 13, 2006, defines the middle class as those whose annual income is between the per capita income levels of Brazil and Italy. crowd (approximately $4,000 and $17,000 respectively). This happy minority only accounts for 7.6% of the global population. But the report predicts that their number will increase to 1.2 billion by 2030, accounting for 16.1% of the global population. By then, the number of developing countries with populations over 40 entering the wealthy and middle classes will exceed 30. There are only 6 developing countries that meet this standard.
The outside world looks at the middle class
When Mao Zedong analyzed the situation of various classes in Chinese society in 1926, he clearly regarded China’s national bourgeoisie at that time as the middle class and believed that this class represented The production relations of urban and rural capitalism in China, the attitude of this class in the Chinese revolution is contradictory: when they were attacked by foreign capitalism and oppressed by feudal warlords, they needed revolution and supported the anti-imperialist and anti-warlord revolutionary movement; but in the face of the revolution With the heroic participation of the domestic proletariat at home and the active assistance of the international proletariat abroad, when they feel threatened by the development of the class that wants to reach the status of a big bourgeoisie, they doubt the revolution. The ambivalent attitude of the middle class determines that the idea of ??an independent revolution by the middle class with its class as the main body is just an illusion. Employees engaged in intellectual work in Western capitalist countries are also called the middle class, which mainly include managers, professional and technical personnel, clerks, and salespeople. This is a theoretical perspective used by Western scholars to explain the changes in the class structure of Western capitalist countries under the new circumstances of continuous development of science, technology and management science, and the increasing number of managers and professional technicians. Its purpose is to demonstrate modern capitalism Society has been or is being "gentrified", thereby denying the existence of classes and class struggle, and downplaying the historical status and role of the working class.
"Middle Class" is also called "middle class", "middle class", "middle class", "middle income earner", etc. in our country. It is no longer Marxism. Class in the sense of ownership relations refers to a group or a social class in society with similar self-evaluation, lifestyle, value orientation, and psychological characteristics. Generally speaking, the middle class in my country’s sense is a concept that has Chinese characteristics and is “in line with international standards.” That is to say, as a social class, the middle class is a group that is relatively wealthy, has high cultural accomplishment and high quality of life, has a strong sense of identity with the mainstream social values ????and the existing order, and is a group with a medium-level income in the whole society.
In 1951, the famous American sociologist Wright Mills first proposed the concept of white-collar class as the "middle class" in his book "White Collar: The American Middle Class" and studied it in detail the status of the “middle class”. He pointed out that in industrially developed Western countries, a new group has emerged, including mid-level administrative officials in government departments, mid-level managers and staff in state-owned and private monopoly enterprises, and professional and technical personnel in other fields. - "middle class". He made a definition of the "middle class", that is, the "middle class" is a group:
(1) Dependent on large institutions, specializing in non-directly productive administrative work and Technical services.
(2) It has no fixed private property and does not have property distribution rights for service organizations, making it difficult to judge assets.
(3) Make a living by relying on knowledge and technology, and receive a relatively stable and generous annual salary or monthly salary.
(4) Conservative thinking, mechanical and monotonous life, lack of revolutionary enthusiasm, but in order to maintain an image of dignity commensurate with its status, they reject vulgar and vulgar popular tastes. In our country, generally speaking, the "middle class" in the eyes of fashion media and ordinary people is often a group associated with words such as "white-collar workers" and "high income," "high consumption," and "high education." Judging from the materials obtained in relevant interviews, survey respondents generally believe that China's "middle class" includes the following categories of people:
1. Private business owners who emerged after reform and opening up;
2. Applicants for employment at all levels and types of "white-collar workers" in foreign companies and foreign-funded enterprises (mainly referring to office secretaries, technical workers, etc.)
3. Teachers, engineers and engineers with intermediate and senior professional titles Senior professional and technical talents that are scarce in various markets;
4. “Boss” of large state-owned enterprises and monopoly industries;
5. Stars in the media, entertainment industry, and sports, “ Big shot".
Forbes’ definition of China’s middle class:
1. Living in the city.
2. Between 25 and 45 years old.
3. Have a college degree.
4. Professionals and Entrepreneurs.
5. Annual income of US$10,000-60,000.
Six criteria for the middle class in the eyes of Americans:
1. Whether you own a house or not, being a house slave does not count.
2. Whether you own a car, luxury cars are preferred.
3. Whether the children can receive a good university education.
4. Whether there is retirement security and maintain an income of 80% while working.
5. Whether you have medical insurance or not, make sure you are protected against serious illness or disaster.
6. Whether the family has a vacation, at least two weeks of paid vacation per year.
The middle class in the minds of netizens:
1. Annual income of more than 200,000 yuan.
Two major misunderstandings about the middle class
Myth 1: Income - How much income is considered middle class? 50,000 yuan or 500,000 yuan?
One-third of the income can be freely spent
Economists have not yet reached a conclusion on the definition of the middle class. The article stated that defining China’s middle class is a confusing matter, and the most commonly used definition is based on income.
According to the definition of McKinsey Global Institute, China’s middle class are those whose annual income (based on purchasing power) is between US$13,500 and US$53,900 (approximately 90,000 and 360,000 yuan) . The National Bureau of Statistics defines the middle class as having an annual income between US$7,250 and US$62,500 (approximately RMB 50,000 to RMB 420,000).
The article stated that these figures are not only very different, but also misleading. The cost of living in China is very different from that in the West. If a person earns $1,000 a month, he can live a good life in China, but not in the United States.
Therefore, the article believes that anyone with an annual income of US$10,000 to US$60,000 in China may become a middle class person, but the eternal criterion for measuring the middle class is whether they can spend one-third of their income. Engage in discretionary spending.
Myth 2: Occupation - Occupation [There is no middle class in blue collar?
In addition to using income as a measurement criterion, the article also questioned the occupational definition of the middle class - professionals in management and technology industries, entrepreneurs, and private business owners by a research team led by Professor Zhou Xiaohong of Nanjing University and civil servants.
The article stated that unlike the United States, China’s middle class is concentrated in big cities and is younger than the Western middle class. To a certain extent, the middle class is a Western concept that Chinese people misunderstand.
They believe that the Western middle class all own houses and cars, can frequently travel and vacation, and live a polite and high-grade lifestyle. In fact, there are many middle-class people in those low-skilled industries. There are also middle-class workers and farmers, such as mid-level and senior technicians, who are the “white collar” among the “blue collar”.