On October 27, at the 2020 China Society of Automotive Engineers Annual Meeting, Professor Li Jun of Tsinghua University released the "Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" on behalf of the China Society of Automotive Engineers, and gave a Interpret the development vision and goals, as well as technical routes, etc.
Roadmap 2.0 proposes six major goals for the development of my country's automobile industry in 2035. Among them, the carbon emissions of the automobile industry will be two years ahead of the national carbon emission reduction commitments, and "the carbon emissions of the automobile industry will be two years ahead of the national carbon emission reduction commitments around 2028." The emission reduction commitment will reach its peak ahead of schedule, and by 2035, total carbon emissions will have dropped by more than 20% from the peak."
In addition, the other five goals in Roadmap 2.0 are: new energy vehicles will gradually become mainstream products, and the automotive industry will basically achieve electrification transformation; China’s core technology for intelligent connected vehicles will lead the world , products are applied on a large scale; the level of autonomy of key core technologies has been significantly improved, forming a collaborative, efficient, safe and controllable industrial chain; a smart automobile travel system has been established to form a deeply integrated ecology of automobiles, transportation, energy, and cities; the technological innovation system is basically mature, Possess original innovation capabilities that lead the world. ?
"Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" continues the research model and research framework of the technology roadmap in key areas of the overall technology roadmap, and forms an overall technology roadmap for pure electric and plug-in energy-saving vehicles. Electric hybrid vehicles Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles Intelligent connected vehicles Vehicles Power batteries New energy vehicles Electric drive systems Charging infrastructure Vehicles Lightweight vehicles Intelligent manufacturing and key equipment The “1 9” overall layout.
Compared with the 1.0 technology roadmap released in 2016, which focused on pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles, supplemented by energy-saving vehicles, the 2.0 technology roadmap to be released soon aims to " "Electric drive" replaces "electrification" and raises energy-saving vehicles to the same level of importance as new energy vehicles. The two develop simultaneously. It is expected that by 2035, energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will each account for ?50.
In our country’s classification, energy-saving vehicles refer to fuel vehicles with low fuel consumption and gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles with higher fuel utilization. New energy vehicles refer to vehicles that add more fuel than traditional fuel vehicles. Plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles that use batteries as their power source.
The change from "electrification" to "electric drive" is to elevate hybrid vehicles to a higher strategic level. In the past few years, my country's various automobile development policies have mostly been implemented around new energy vehicles, such as financial subsidies, infrastructure construction, etc. At present, my country's new energy vehicles have been developed for 10 years, and their proportion is still less than 6, and energy-saving vehicles are less than 3. The change in route indicates that future policies may tilt towards energy-saving vehicles and hybrid vehicles. Roadmap Targets From a product application perspective, the target for the proportion of hybrid passenger cars in traditional cars has been clarified. Taking the three time points of 2025, 2030 and 2035, the proportion of hybrid passenger cars in traditional car sales will be more than 50, 75 and 100 respectively.
From January to September 2020, 166,400 and 151,200 hybrid passenger cars were produced and sold respectively. Month-over-year growth is also trending upward.
In the 2.0 route, the proportion of energy-saving vehicles will be increased, and gasoline-electric hybrid power will definitely benefit. However, my country's gasoline-electric hybrid technology is relatively lacking. Hybrid cars are led by Toyota and have established strong barriers. Honda has bypassed Toyota's patents to break through. Except for two car companies, the gasoline-electric hybrid technology of other car companies is lackluster. Among the 280,000 gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles in China in 2019, Toyota and Honda accounted for almost all of them. At present, domestic Toyota has reached a technology transfer agreement with GAC Group. GAC's independent segment will launch hybrid products using Toyota's THS system (ToyotaHybrid? System) in 2021, or include gasoline-electric hybrid versions of GS8, GM8 and other products.
At the same time, in addition to gasoline hybrid vehicles, the status of plug-in hybrid vehicles in new energy vehicles is also expected to increase.
Compared with hybrid power, which is firmly grasped by Toyota, plug-in hybrid under the parallel technical solution has been developed in China. BYD Song, Tang, and Han models all have DM (parallel plug-in hybrid) versions, and have gained popularity in the market. Achieved very good sales.
Range-extended hybrid vehicles represented by series models are also attracting attention through continuous optimization of technology. Li Auto uses extended-range hybrid technology, and other new car-making forces such as Tianji Motors and Baoneng Motors have also announced that they will develop extended-range electric vehicles.
The version 2.0 route is only the technical guidance route for domestic new energy vehicles in the next few years. From a longer-term development trend, the pure electric route will still not change. How each car company chooses its own technical route during this transitional stage is a matter that greatly tests its strategic decision-making capabilities. How to take the initiative in the process of technological change requires a good balance between market development, technical capabilities, and policy direction. The future path is clear, go for it! Chinese cars.
This article comes from the author of Autohome Chejiahao and does not represent the views and positions of Autohome.