New energy vehicles were born during the rapid development of the industry in the past few years. From 2012 to 2019, the output of new energy vehicles increased from 12,600 vehicles to 1,241,900 vehicles, an increase of nearly a hundred times. In 2019, global sales of new energy vehicles were 2.21 million, corresponding to a penetration rate of 2.3. From the perspective of penetration rate, the entire new energy vehicle industry is still in the front section of the "S" curve. It is in the early stages of industry development and is about to usher in a golden growth period. By 2030, global production and sales may reach 30 million vehicles, corresponding to a penetration rate of 30%, which is equivalent to 10 times the current growth space.
The new energy vehicle industry chain includes downstream complete vehicles, charging piles, midstream batteries, motors and electronic controls and other "three electricity" fields, as well as midstream material links, upstream equipment, metal resources, etc., with global new energy capabilities The most complete industrial chain of automobiles will benefit most from the acceleration of the electrification process in Europe.
From the initial research and development of lithium batteries, it has gone through more than 100 years and nearly 30 years of commercialization. The material system and production process have undergone several changes to reach the current situation.
Power batteries are a key link in the new energy vehicle industry chain. The entire industry chain is relatively long. The four core materials of upstream batteries include positive electrodes, negative electrodes, separators, and electrolytes, which account for 30, 10, and 25% of the battery cost respectively. ,17. The upstream of positive electrodes, negative electrodes and electrolytes mainly involves the mining, production and processing of various types of lithium ore, graphite ore, asphalt and other resources.
The midstream link is to process raw materials into lithium-ion batteries and group them into battery packs. Batteries are divided into three categories: power batteries, consumer batteries, and energy storage batteries, which are used in different downstream fields. Power batteries are the core components of new energy vehicles.
In the lithium battery industry chain, my country has basically completed import substitution: from the perspective of raw materials, including upstream lithium cobalt and other fossil energy, key materials such as separators, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, positive and negative electrodes are all Export achieved.
Global power batteries are accelerating to become an oligopoly.
In the first quarter of 2020, the concentration of the domestic and foreign power battery industry has further increased, the living space of small and medium-sized enterprises has been further compressed, and the competition for the position of leading manufacturers has become more intense.
LG Chem has greatly increased its market share at home and abroad with the help of Tesla in the Chinese market and many European customers such as Volkswagen, Renault and PSA; another Korean company, Samsung SDI, has a higher market share There has also been a slight improvement in rankings. Japanese battery market share has grown steadily, while Chinese companies have experienced a significant decline.
From 2014 to 2019, domestic power battery shipments were 5.9GWh, 7.0GWh, 30.5GWh, 39.2GWh, 56.9GWh and 62.8GWh respectively.
According to data, the top five companies in terms of power battery installed capacity in China from January to May 2020 are CATL 48, LG Chem 14, BYD 15, AVIC Lithium Battery 4, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech 4.
Global consumption is expected to reach 848GWh in 2025 and 1,792GWh in 2030, with a ten-year compound growth rate of 26; among which, my country’s power battery consumption will reach 293GWh in 2025 and 658GWh in 2030, with a ten-year compound growth rate of 23 , my country is an important market occupying more than 30% of the global share.
Based on the policy orientation, sales volume and market characteristics of different periods, the development history of new energy vehicles in my country is divided into four stages: demonstration and promotion, explosive growth, targeted support, and subsidy reduction and return to the market. From the initial subsidy drive to the return to marketization, the price of power batteries has dropped by nearly 70%, the energy density has increased by nearly 50%, the industrial chain has achieved cost reduction and quality improvement, and has initially laid the foundation for marketization.