China's accession to the WTO has greatly accelerated China's integration into the world economy. Therefore, what role China will play in the world economic division of labor system in the new century has naturally become an issue of great concern to the international community. I believe that, regardless of the historical trend of world economic development or the requirements of domestic economic development, China will develop from a large manufacturing country to a manufacturing powerhouse and become one of the world-class manufacturing centers within the first 20 years of the new century. one. 1. The historical opportunities presented by the world economy Let’s first look at the historical trends of world economic development. Since the 1960s, the world economy has seen two important development trends. One is that developed countries have entered the “post-industrial society” and the information age; the other is that First, most developing countries have started the process of industrialization. The combination of the two has formed another important historical trend of the transfer of manufacturing production bases from developed countries and regions to developing countries. It is under this historical condition that China is bound to develop into one of the new world manufacturing centers. The world industrialization process initiated by the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century created a number of industrialized countries in two to three hundred years. By the end of the 20th century, 64 of the more than 200 countries in the world had basically achieved industrialization. During this period, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan has been cast into a well-known "world factory" in history. After the 1960s, some major developed countries entered the "post-industrial society" and the information age, and the industrial structure underwent major changes. On the one hand, high-tech industries and service industries have developed rapidly; on the other hand, some labor-intensive industries (such as textiles, clothing, food, etc.), high energy consumption, high material consumption, and high pollution industries are declining day by day, and some have become "sunset industries." "Many companies have moved abroad, especially some general manufacturing industries to developing countries and regions. As a result, the proportion of the secondary industry, especially the manufacturing industry, in the gross domestic product (GDP) of some major developed countries has continued to decline. For example, in the more than two decades from 1970 to 1992, the two proportions in the United States dropped from 32 to 26 and from 25 to 18 respectively; in the UK they dropped from 44 to 32 and from 33 to 20 respectively; in Japan From 47 to 42 and from 36 to 26. For post-industrial societies, the proportion of secondary industry and manufacturing in GDP will drop from the peak period of industrialization in the past (around 60 years). This is a regular development, but it has not shaken the United States, Japan, and the United Kingdom as manufacturing powers. Its status is closely related to the historical trend of manufacturing industry shifting to developing regions. In this historic industrial transfer trend, multinational companies play an important role. Since the 1960s, the industrialization process has started around the world, with developing countries (regions) as the main body. In order to distinguish it from the first round of world industrialization process that lasted for more than 200 years with developed countries as the main body, I call this industrialization process with developing countries as the main body the second round of world industrialization process, or the belated world industrialization process. . These countries and regions used to be colonies and semi-colonies for a long time. Only after gaining political independence after the war did they independently advance industrialization in the 1960s. For example, the "Four Little Dragons" emerged in the developing regions of East Asia in the 1970s, known as the "New Industrial Economies" (MIES); subsequently, ASEAN and China also achieved economic "take-off" by accelerating industrialization in the 1980s ( takeoff), and achieved average annual growth rates of 7 and 9 respectively in the 20 years before the Asian financial crisis (1997), creating the "East Asian Miracle". The progress of industrialization has caused obvious changes in the industrial structure. For example, between 1970 and 2001, the proportions of Indonesia's agriculture and industry in GDP dropped from 35.2 to 16.2 and increased from 28.0 to 36.0 respectively; in Thailand, the proportions of agriculture and industry fell from 30.2 to 8.0 and increased from 25.7 respectively. to 44.0; the proportions of agriculture and industry in the Philippines fell from 28.2 to 20.1 and increased from 33.7 to 34.0 respectively. The proportions of agriculture and industry in Malaysia fell from 22.9 to 8.2 and increased from 35.8 to 43.1 respectively in the 10 years from 1980 to 2001.
The proportion of agriculture in China's GDP dropped from 35.22 to 15.23 between 1970 and 2001, while the proportion of industry increased from 40.49 to 51.15 during the same period. In short, the decline in the proportion of agriculture and the increase in the proportion of industry is a sign of the advancement of industrialization in developing regions of East Asia, and the main part of industrial growth comes from manufacturing. It is worth emphasizing that the industrialization process of developing countries (regions) in East Asia is combined with the industrial transfer (mainly manufacturing) of some developed countries in this region. Some manufacturing industries that are increasingly losing their advantages first started from the United States and Japan. Moved to the "Four Tigers", and then moved from the "Four Tigers" to ASEAN and China. In the 1960s and 1970s, textile, clothing and other industries were transferred, and in the 1980s, the household appliances and chemical industries were transferred. Since the 1990s, the growth of Japan's investment in East Asia has slowed down, while the United States' investment in East Asia has increased rapidly. In particular, the region is developing processing industries for parts or assembly of high-tech industries such as information. It is the combination of the independent industrialization process of developing countries (regions) with the industrial transfer of manufacturing industries in developed regions that makes it possible to create regional or global manufacturing bases (centers) in developing regions such as East Asia. Come. From the perspective of the history of world economic development, this second round of world industrialization process, with developing countries as the main body, has structural defects caused by its history: (1) Manufacturing, as the leading industry in the industrialization process, if we say that in traditional industrialization The period once represented the industry with the highest level of technology at that time, but now the industry that represents the highest level of technology today is high-tech industry, not manufacturing. Nowadays, the world's manufacturing bases or centers created by the second round of world industrialization have lost the magnificent aura of the "world factories" in the past. Their technological and economic levels are still far behind those of the major developed countries that monopolize high-tech industries. (2) As far as the development of the manufacturing industry itself is concerned, its development and strength require two conditions. One is that there must be scientific and technological development power to pave the way for it, and the other is that there must be a strong equipment manufacturing industry to support the general manufacturing industry. At that time, developed countries relied on these two conditions to promote industrialization. Today, developing countries are pursuing industrialization under the conditions of weak scientific and technological development capabilities and lagging equipment manufacturing industry. Even China, which is now regarded as a major manufacturing country, is severely constrained by the structural defects caused by this history (this will be further elaborated on later in this article). Under the constraints of this economic structure, even if the manufacturing industry can become bigger, it is difficult to become stronger. Even though a large number of manufacturing industries are transferred from developed countries to developing countries (regions), most of the transfers are general manufacturing and general technology. Only by developing the country's scientific and technological development capabilities and establishing a strong equipment industry on this basis can a large manufacturing country be built into a manufacturing powerhouse or a world-class manufacturing base. Not all countries that pursue industrialization can build world-class manufacturing bases (or centers), just as only a few of the dozens of industrialized countries have become "world factories" in history. I believe that China is likely to become one of the first such new world-class manufacturing bases (or centers) in the first 20-30 years of this century, because China has advantages that other developing countries are difficult to possess. These conditions are: (1) China is already the fourth largest manufacturing country in the world, and its manufacturing scale ranks first among developing countries; (2) China is also a major trading country, ranking sixth in world trade, and it also supports the development of manufacturing It has a vast domestic market; (3) it has become the developing country that attracts the most foreign investment in recent years, surpassing the United States in attracting foreign investment and ranking first in the world in 2002; (4) its industrial infrastructure (such as electricity, transportation, communications, etc.) is relatively strong; (5) A multi-category industrial production system including some high and new technologies has been established. Although the technical foundation is weak, the industry itself has strong supporting capabilities; (6) Labor costs are low and there are large high-quality labor resources. There are millions of polytechnic graduates and more than 400,000 foreign students every year; (7) There is vast space for the gradient expansion of manufacturing from the coast to the west. China's above-mentioned advantages, combined with the historical trend of manufacturing shifting from developed countries (regions) to developing countries (regions), will inevitably provide China with huge historical opportunities to build a world-class manufacturing base.
The key is that we must clearly understand the historical stage our country is in. We must firmly seize this historical opportunity, make full use of favorable conditions at home and abroad, and fulfill our historical mission. 2. Requirements of the historic task of industrialization in my country Our country is in a period of transition from a dual economy to a modern economy. Industrialization is a historical stage that cannot be surpassed; but our country is taking a new industrialization path under contemporary historical conditions. my country's industrialization process has made significant progress in the past few decades. The proportion of primary industry in GDP has dropped to 15.23, while the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries has increased to 51.15 and 33.62. According to research by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), countries where the secondary industry accounts for 40-60% of GDP are semi-industrialized countries. my country should currently be classified as a semi-industrialized country. According to statistics, 63.9% of my country's population lives in rural areas, and primary industry accounts for 50% of the total social employment structure. The many practitioners who account for half of the country only create 15.2% of commodity wealth and support a population of more than 60%. This is the crux of my country's "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" issues; and the solution to the "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" issues should mainly be found outside agriculture and rural areas, that is, from industrialization or the urbanization associated with it, which is to rely on Develop manufacturing, basic industries, service industries and other non-agricultural industries to transfer a large amount of surplus labor out of agriculture and rural areas (admittedly, the technological transformation and development of agriculture itself is also essential). According to estimates from the National Conditions Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, there were approximately 142 million rural surplus laborers in my country in 2000, accounting for approximately 42.45% of the total rural labor force. According to another analysis, if our country maintains an average annual GDP growth rate of 7-7.5 in the next 20 years, the proportion of primary industry (mainly agriculture) in the overall social employment structure will drop from the current 50 to 30-32. That is to say, if the labor force falls by 18-20 percentage points, 140-150 million rural surplus laborers will be transferred out of rural areas and absorbed by manufacturing, basic industries, service industries and other non-agricultural industries. At the same time, based on an average annual economic growth rate of 7-7.5, the added value of the manufacturing industry as a proportion of the total value-added of commodity production is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 0.70-0.75 percentage points. In this way, the proportion of secondary industry in GDP can increase from the current 51 to about 64 in 2020, reaching the internationally recognized indicator required by industrial countries. This is an important and historic task for industrialization to be achieved. Another historic task is to strengthen the structure of industry, especially the manufacturing industry, that is, to establish a strong scientific and technological development force and vigorously develop the equipment manufacturing industry on this basis. The equipment manufacturing industry is the material carrier of industrial technological inventions and the engine that drives the manufacturing industry and even the entire industry forward. my country's equipment manufacturing industry has a certain foundation, which is stronger than that of other developing countries. However, after all, the technical foundation is weak and lags behind the needs of manufacturing development. According to a recently published monograph, "among the many problems existing in my country's equipment manufacturing industry, the most fundamental are the two problems of weak technological development and low manufacturing and processing quality. In the past, in order to develop the equipment industry, we narrowed the The gap with the international advanced level has been greatly improved, such as technology introduction, technological transformation of enterprises, etc., but the results are not very satisfactory, and the gap with the advanced level in some industries has a tendency to widen. "Another research report. Said, "The added value of my country's equipment manufacturing industry ranks fourth in the world after the United States, Japan, and Germany. ... From a total perspective, it can be said that our country has become a major equipment manufacturing country in the world. However, when we turn our attention to When China manufactures equipment, it turns out that it is more of a 'domestic body, foreign head'. The overall equipment level of our country is 20-30 years behind that of developed countries. "This situation is worthy of reflection. Why is this happening? In my opinion, first, we are mainly keen on introducing technology and equipment, but we have not invested enough in absorption, digestion, and innovation, resulting in weak independent development capabilities; second, foreign companies can transfer general technologies, but strictly restrict core technologies, even if Foreign-funded enterprises that have invested in setting up factories or even R&D institutions in China are also clinging to the "patent rights".
According to the example of the person in charge of the State Intellectual Property Office of my country, in 1998, there were more than 7.97 million domestic industrial enterprises of various types in my country, and only 3 domestic enterprises (i.e. 2,474) applied for invention patents. The United States applied for 2,480 patents, while the United States Companies from one country applied for 5,433 patents in China, and Japanese companies in China applied for 7,588 patents. The gap between my country and developed countries in technological development and the strict adherence to technology by foreign companies can be seen here. This increasingly demonstrates the necessity and urgency of establishing and strengthening my country's independent scientific and technological development capabilities. Whether it is to build our country's dual economy into a modern economy or to strengthen the industrial structure of our country's industrial sector, we must complete this historic task through the industrialization stage. Building my country from a large manufacturing country to a manufacturing power and becoming one of the world-class manufacturing bases is the inevitable result of my country completing the historic task of industrialization. We are historical materialists and respect the laws of historical development. This historical stage of industrialization cannot be surpassed. We must always remember the historical tasks to be completed during the industrialization stage, especially the transfer of hundreds of millions of farmers; but we oppose mechanical materialism. According to the theory, it is neither should nor necessary to follow the traditional industrialization path of developed countries for hundreds of years. It is not necessary to wait until industrialization is completed before engaging in informatization, but to use informatization to drive industrialization. A new path should be taken that respects historical laws and is consistent with my country's national conditions.