From 2002 to 2011, China's lubricant consumption increased from 4.09 million tons to 7.1 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 6.32%. It is one of the few markets in the global market that has maintained growth. In 2012, affected by the global economic downturn, domestic lubricant demand declined, and actual consumption was basically the same as the previous year.
China's lubricant market will still grow at an annual rate of about 5% in the next five years. It is expected that by 2015, China's lubricant consumption is expected to exceed 8 million tons; by 2020, China's lubricant consumption is expected to exceed 8 million tons. Lubricating oil consumption will exceed that of the United States. For details, please see the "Forward-Looking China Lubricating Oil Industry Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis Report".
Now (referring to October 2013), with the improvement of mechanization level, the development of lubricant industry is also rising. The higher the degree of mechanization, the higher the utilization rate of lubricants, and the future is bright.
China's industry is showing a straight-up trend. The demand for lubricants from iron ore, smelting, and precision instrument manufacturing has doubled. In the era of the automotive aftermarket, China has become a must for international automotive lubricants. Fight for land. In the lubricant industry in 2012, the most exciting thing was the rise of local brands, which broke the dominance of international lubricant giants and domestic monopolies.
The domestic automobile industry’s strong demand for high-grade lubricants has driven technology research and development and continuous product upgrades. Determine your own market competitiveness and remain invincible in China's automotive lubricant industry, which is full of strong players. This is the development direction and goal of the majority of automotive lubricant companies. Automotive lubricant companies participate in the market In order to gain the initiative in market competition, the enterprise's development strategy and effort goals must be formulated scientifically and reasonably based on the current status of the marketing environment, development trends, and the enterprise's own subjective and objective conditions. It has become the development trend of the domestic lubricant market to coordinate and unify the three-way relationship between brand building, product optimization and market expansion and form a strategic deployment, with the brand as the guarantee and the products as the market leader. 1. The dust of the National IV standard for commercial vehicles has settled
Probability of occurrence: 95%
In the 2011 "Top Ten Conjectures on China's Lubricant Industry in 2011", the author once predicted that, The National IV standard for commercial vehicles will have a "bright future but a tortuous road". Sure enough, when the original implementation deadline of January 1, 2012 for the National IV standard is approaching, we once again saw a notice of delayed implementation. However, , this time it’s time to get serious.
On January 10, 2013, the Ministry of Environmental Protection issued an announcement stating that starting from July 1, 2013, all compression ignition engines and vehicles produced, imported, sold and registered must Meets the requirements of National IV standards. In addition, the Beijing Municipal Environmental Protection Bureau also recently announced (as of October 2013) that Beijing will be the first in the country to implement the National V motor vehicle emission standards, with the timetable set for the second half of 2013.
The biggest reason why this time is "really serious" is the Beijing PM2.5 pollution incident that has caused an uproar on Weibo since the end of last year. Beijing air pollution released by the U.S. Embassy The index made the Chinese people aware for the first time that the "culprit" that has caused the serious deterioration of air quality in many domestic cities in recent years (as of October 2013) - this pollutant called PM2.5, and the comprehensive national IV standards Implementation will be an important means to effectively control PM2.5 pollution.
Nitrogen oxide is a gas closely related to the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that causes haze in urban atmosphere. The implementation of National IV standards will reduce the emission of nitrogen oxide by nearly 50%. This effectively reduces PM2.5 pollution.
For the lubricant industry, the implementation of the National IV standard for commercial vehicles next year means that CH-4 grade diesel engine oil that meets the National III standard will become the main sales product of major brands in the market this year; The overall sales of CF-4 diesel engine oil, which is one level lower than that in the industry, is expected to decline significantly this year. After the second half of next year, with the full implementation of the National IV standards, CI-4 diesel engine oil, which is the lowest engine oil configuration for National IV commercial vehicles, will usher in a sales explosion.
2. The turbulent international situation may lead to a surge in lubricant prices
Occurrence probability: 90%
In 2012, from the perspective of the global market, it will affect international oil prices The two hot spots will be the Iran war crisis and the European debt crisis. Once the former detonates, it will cause international oil prices to surge by more than 50%, while the latter will be the main factor dragging down oil prices. Judging from the current market evolution, since the U.S. economy has recovered relatively quickly and has mitigated the impact of the European debt crisis on the global economy, the Iran war crisis will be the main external factor affecting the trend of international oil prices this year, and lubricant prices will also be affected by this. And it contains the possibility of skyrocketing.
At present, since the United States, Israel, Iran and other relevant countries do not dare to act rashly, but because the interests of all parties are essentially irreconcilable, as time goes by, the risk of war in the Gulf region will Increasingly, the evolution of the Syrian crisis may also have a "trigger" effect on the situation in Iran.
3. The implementation of fuel consumption standards for passenger cars and commercial vehicles will usher in greater market space for energy-saving engine oils
Occurrence probability: 65%
January 1 this year Since 2019, two national standards, "Passenger Vehicle Fuel Consumption Evaluation Methods and Indicators" and "Commercial Vehicle Fuel Consumption Measurement Methods" have been officially implemented. These two standards can be said to be an energy-saving "measurement" for automobile companies. Tightening Curse".
The third-stage fuel limit standard for passenger cars, which has been drafted and discussed since 2009, is not a simple upgrade of the previous two-stage standards, but a comprehensive update from the evaluation system to the evaluation indicators. The first standard is to refer to the U.S. Corporate Average Fuel Economy Act and include the output of all models produced by car companies into the overall assessment scope. As a national mandatory standard, its goal is to reduce the fuel limit of car companies by 20% compared with the second stage. By 2015, the national average passenger car fuel consumption will be reduced to about 7 liters per 100 kilometers.
In order to achieve this target, passenger car manufacturers must do their best to reduce fuel consumption in the next few years. Against this background, SN/GF-5 engine oil with stronger fuel-saving performance will usher in greater market development space. In last year's "Top Ten Conjectures", the author predicted the emergence of SN engine oil. Sure enough, in this year, new products such as "Longpan Supreme SN" and "Mobil 1 SN" have aroused enthusiastic enthusiasm in the market. Response; It is expected that in 2012, SN oil products will be expected to achieve breakthroughs in the field of oil for vehicle loading and after-sales service in car manufacturers.
4. "Made in China" in the lubricant industry goes global
Occurrence probability: 40%
"Made in China" has gone global in all walks of life. However, the lubricant industry is still lackluster. In 2012, this situation will achieve a major breakthrough. Sinopec's Singapore lubricating grease project, with an investment of 580 million yuan, will be ready for production by the end of October this year, with a production capacity of 100,000 tons per year in the first phase. This will mark the first time that a Chinese company has begun to build factories overseas to produce lubricant products.
In fact, there are already some lubricating oil products produced by overseas OEMs in the domestic market, such as SPEED friction oil and other products originating from the United States, and the domestically produced "Shellac" windshield cleaner has also been successful. has entered the munitions supply system of the United Nations peacekeeping forces. But overall, if domestic lubricant companies want to expand overseas on a large scale, they are still subject to relevant national policy restrictions. Under the current licensing system, only monopoly state-owned enterprises have the ability to directly export lubricant products. To truly realize the "letting of a hundred flowers bloom" in China's lubricant exports, the relevant national policies need to be further relaxed.
5. The industry structure has changed and leading private companies will emerge
Probability of occurrence: 50%
China’s lubricant industry has maintained state-owned, foreign-owned and private brands for a long time. Among them, Uni-President Lubricating Oil, a joint venture, has a unique position in the entire industry due to its "bloodline" of being the former "private leader". However, in the five years since the joint venture, as Shell has changed its business positioning in China, the embarrassment of Uni-President Lubricant’s “unique” position has become increasingly apparent.
On January 31, General Manager Li Jia, the soul of Tongyi Lubricants, officially resigned. This news immediately became headline news on industry websites. After Li Jia left, Chen Cuiwei, the former general manager of DuPont Applied Surface Materials, took over the general manager position. Unification, future trends and the impact on changes in the domestic lubricant landscape will attract attention.
As one of the "three poles" of China's lubricant industry, private enterprises are becoming increasingly mature after more than ten years of competition. Several private lubricant companies in the market that adhere to the idea of ??branding operations, with standardized market protection, perfect after-sales services, and reliable product quality, are gaining more and more favor from dealers and consumers at all levels.
6. More lubricant companies join hands with the capital market
Probability of occurrence: 45%
On April 20, 2011, the first domestic lubricant company to be listed on the market The application of the company - Gaoke Petrochemical to the meeting was rejected, announcing that the domestic lubricant company's first impact on the capital market ended in failure.
On December 15 last year, "Jinling Evening News" titled "The reason why Jiangsu's new shares were rejected" introduced the reasons why this "first listed warrior in the lubricant industry" failed: Internal information from the China Securities Regulatory Commission shows that Gaoke Petrochemical will be rejected. The main problem lies in the risk of raw material supply. Since base oil, its main raw material, accounts for approximately 90% of the company's production costs, the prices of raw material base oil and finished lubricants continue to fluctuate with changes in international crude oil prices. According to the sensitivity analysis disclosed in the application materials, for every 1% increase in base oil purchase price in 2010, gross profit decreased by 6.58% and total profit decreased by 14.08%. Compared with other companies in the same industry, the ability to resist risks is not strong. Moreover, Hi-tech Petrochemical did not fully disclose in its application materials effective measures to deal with the risk of raw material price fluctuations.
The failure of Gaoke Petrochemical’s sprint to go public has not stopped other companies’ enthusiasm to “marry” capital and move toward listing. As far as the author knows, at least three lubricant companies in the industry are still making intensive preparations. Listing matters. However, since the second half of 2011, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have cooled sharply, and the capital market has fallen into a "cold winter". In addition, the risk of base oil price fluctuations is particularly prominent this year. Therefore, whether these companies to be listed can successfully break through this year and avoid It is indeed not optimistic to repeat the "mistake" of Hi-tech Petrochemical. Judging from the "Basic Information Table of Enterprises Applying for Initial Public Offerings" published by the China Securities Regulatory Commission website on February 1, none of the 495 companies currently waiting in line for listing is a lubricant company.
Of course, in the long run, by 2014, domestic lubricant companies will usher in a more suitable time window for listing. There are three main reasons for this. First, the possible spin-off and listing of Great Wall Lubricant, a subsidiary of Sinopec, second, the substantial increase in base oil production capacity and supply in the domestic and Asia-Pacific regions, and third, the resolution of the war crisis in the Middle East.
When Fu Chengyu, the current head of Sinopec, was the general manager of China National Offshore Oil Corporation, he successfully promoted the listing of many of its companies, including China National Offshore Oilfield Services Ltd., China National Offshore Oil Corp. Selected as one of Standard & Poor's "Top 30 Most Valuable Stocks in the World" for three years. Therefore, the spin-off and listing of Sinopec to maximize the interests of the group is naturally what "Master Fu" should do after he takes office.
According to a report issued by CLSA not long ago citing the opinions of Sinopec’s management, Sinopec is currently considering group reorganization, including spinning off its five businesses including oilfield engineering services and lubricants and listing them independently to reflect its true nature. Asset value.
Sinopec Great Wall Lubricant’s current annual output is close to 1.6 million tons, and its domestic market share is about 30% to 40%. If the IPO is based on a price-earnings ratio of 15 times, the market value after listing will reach about 30 billion yuan. . If Great Wall Lubricant can be successfully listed, it will pave the way for subsequent listing applications by domestic lubricant companies.
In addition, the substantial growth in base oil production capacity and supply in the Asia-Pacific region and domestic countries in the next few years will effectively alleviate the impact of base oil price fluctuations on the profits of lubricant companies. Shell's GTL base oil project with an annual output of 1.5 million tons in Qatar was officially put into production at the beginning of this year. In June, South Korea's SK Lubricant Company will build a new set of Category III base oil equipment in Asia, plus domestic CNOOC and Hainan Handi Sunshine. Based on the upgrade of the base oil unit, it is expected that by the beginning of 2013, the supply situation of domestic base oil will be greatly eased, and the raw material supply problem questioned by the members of the Issuance Review Committee will also be solved by then.
7. Online sales continue to grow rapidly
Occurrence probability: 80%
In last year’s “Top Ten Conjectures”, the author once pointed out that “online sales "Motor oil has become a new trend". Now, this e-commerce trend has "blowing" to the auto parts industry. On January 11, Bosch Group, a world-renowned automotive technology and service provider, officially put its cars into operation on Taobao Mall. The official online trading platform for accessories products - Bosch Auto Parts Official Flagship Store.
This is the first auto parts supplier to enter the online shopping field since Great Wall, Longpan, Chery, Geely, Skoda and other lubricant and vehicle brands have launched online shopping sales models. So far, in addition to tire companies, corporate flagship stores in various automotive industry segments have achieved "meeting" in the field of e-commerce.
In 2012, the author predicts that the online sales of lubricating oil products, especially the online sales of synthetic SN and SM gasoline engine oils, will still maintain a growth rate of more than 200%. The biggest beneficiaries of this trend will be the end consumer group of private car users. However, as the scale of online sales continues to expand, the contradiction between manufacturers and traditional channel dealers will gradually become more prominent. How to consider tailoring specialized product lines for e-commerce channels to resolve the contradiction between online sales and traditional channel sales. , will be an issue that the industry’s “pioneers” need to address in the future.
8. Green marketing has become a future development trend
Occurrence probability: 50%
What is "green marketing"? According to the definition of Wikipedia, green marketing means that in order to cater to consumers' green consumption habits, enterprises use green environmentalism as the value orientation of the company's products, use green culture as its production philosophy, and strive to meet consumers' needs for green products. marketing activities.
In fact, judging from the development history of foreign companies, it was Chevron, DuPont and other petrochemical companies that first proposed the concept of "green marketing". In China's lubricant industry, Shell's environmental protection publicity project "Beautiful Environment Action" for primary and secondary school students has been carried out in 18 domestic cities including Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, with a total of more than one million students participating. Lonpan Petrochemical, the first domestic public welfare organization to join the United Nations "Global Compact", has also submitted the Chinese and English versions of the "Global Compact Implementation Progress Report" to the United Nations for two consecutive years.
From the industrial attributes of lubricating oil as a petroleum product, the non-renewable nature of petroleum resources and the sensitivity to environmental impacts during use all determine that this industry should be an industry that is closely related to corporate society. Responsibility, industries closely related to "green marketing", and the in-depth construction of green marketing also reflect the deep connotation of the value of corporate brand development to social contribution. We have reason to believe that as more and more lubricant companies embark on the road of brand development, "green marketing" will become the mainstream marketing development trend of leading companies in China's lubricant industry in the future.
9. Brand promotion sets off a "Weibo war"
Occurrence probability: 30%
As the author said in last year's "Top Ten Conjectures", As consumers become “increasingly savvy” and media concentration becomes diluted, domestic industries as a whole have gone through the stage of relying on CCTV advertising to destroy brands. Judging from the publicity of major brands last year, the author believes that the "CCTV advertising war" with a low probability of occurrence has not occurred.
The most popular media in China is undoubtedly Sina Weibo. As a new brand promotion model, Weibo marketing has also been increasingly widely used. Many domestic lubricant companies have now opened their own official Weibo on Sina. Therefore, after entering Taobao and opening online sales in 2011, a new round of lubricant brand online promotion competition in 2012 will likely be on Weibo. happens on this platform.
10. More brands begin to pay attention to the interests of dealers
Occurrence probability: 55%
In 2011, affected by the sluggish growth rate of the domestic automobile industry, domestic The growth rate of lubricant sales has slowed down, and the interests of dealers of many brands have been severely squeezed. But at present, many brands in the lubricant industry only focus one-sidedly on the expansion of their own market share and sales growth, ignoring the profits of dealers.
In this process, the secondary channel of the repair shop has become the biggest beneficiary of the "fisherman's profit" from the competition among various brands. In the competition between dealers of various brands, the appetite of the secondary channel is getting more and more favored, and the profits are being made. Earning high profits that are not commensurate with its own sales level. In order to expand sales, dealers can only continue to carry out a series of activities such as promotions and gifts for lower-level customers. The intensity of promotions becomes stronger and stronger, and eventually they continue to compress their profit margins. In the manufacturers and the market Under the pressure from both sides, profit margins have been continuously weakened, ultimately adversely affecting the overall development of the industry.
Development
Since 2000, with the rapid growth of China's engineering machinery, electric power, automobile, metallurgy, steel, mold, and machine tool industries and the continuous improvement of equipment technology, China's lubricant demand has The volume continues to grow, and China has become the second largest lubricant market in the world. While the demand for lubricants in China is increasing year by year, the grade of oil used has also achieved leapfrog development. High-end oil products are directly in line with international standards. As part of the automotive aftermarket, the lubricant market has gradually formed two camps: imported brands and domestic brands. China Lubricants The oil market has become a hotspot for lubricant consumption in the world in the past decade, attracting major global oil giants and independent lubricant dealers to invest in China.
It is worth noting that although China’s lubricant consumption is growing rapidly, per capita consumption is still low. The current per capita lubricant consumption in China is 4.5 kg/year, which is 15-25 kg per capita in developed countries. The gap in kilogram/year level is still very large, which shows that China's lubricant consumption still has great growth potential. As competition in the lubricant industry continues to intensify, mergers, acquisitions, integration and capital operations among large lubricant companies become increasingly frequent. Excellent domestic lubricant production companies are paying more and more attention to the research of the industry market, especially the industrial development environment and industry demand. Dig deeper. The working principle of the local rapid heater of the oil tank:
1. Extend the "vortex hot film heat exchanger" into the bottom of the oil tank along the radial direction of the tank, and the heat medium (steam) flows through the pipe, and the oil It flows from the inner tube of the shell to the inner tube, and the suction port of the shell is directly connected to the medium in the tank.
2. Set up a temperature control valve at the steam inlet of the heat exchanger, and control the steam inlet of the heat exchanger by detecting the temperature of the oil outlet with a temperature sensor probe
amount to ensure a constant oil temperature.
The heat exchanger uses high-efficiency heat exchange elements - vortex hot film tubes to maintain a reasonable flow of oil between the tubes. The thermal efficiency is 3-5 times that of ordinary heat exchangers.
Its enhanced heat transfer mechanism is: when the oil fluid flows on the internal and external surfaces, it is designed to flow in a turbulent manner, resulting in strong oscillation and scouring effects. The direction of the flow is constantly changing and is close to the surface of the pipe wall. The high-temperature oil fluid is constantly replaced, the insulation layer becomes thinner or even destroyed, the heat transfer on the metal surface is accelerated, and the microscopic vortices of the fluid are strengthened, which intensifies the internal thermal diffusion of the oil fluid. It will not cause local high temperature overheating of the fluid close to the surface of the pipe wall, so the oil can be properly and fully heated without the possibility of coking and decomposition. It transfers heat well without causing great resistance.
Heating features:
1. Fast heating speed, high heat transfer efficiency, and not easy to scale.
2. The oil can be heated quantitatively, as much as needed.
3. The oil will not suffer from local high temperature or carbonization, ensuring the quality of the oil and the heat transfer efficiency of the heater.
4. The oil outlet in the oil tank has the highest temperature, ensuring the fluidity of the poured oil.
5. Avoid repeated heating of the oil in the tank, ensuring the color of the oil and reducing the cost of oil treatment.
6. Long service life, corrosion resistance, high temperature resistance, high pressure resistance, and anti-fouling functions greatly improve the overall performance of the heat exchanger.
7. The advanced process structure design ensures the smooth outflow of oil and better "pumping the bottom of the tank" effect. 8. Automatic control can be realized, and the steam feed amount can be controlled according to the inlet and outlet temperature of the oil and the oil pouring flow rate.
9. The structure is compact and easy to install and maintain. The installation of the heater will not affect the safety of the tank. Compared with the U-shaped tube heat exchanger, under the condition of the same heat exchange area: the external dimensions of the vortex hot film heat exchanger are only one-half of the external dimensions of the U-shaped tube heat exchanger. about.
10. Compared with electric heating, it is safer, gentler in heating and has less impact on oil quality.
According to the Petrochemical Technology Promotion Center, this new oil tank heating technology has obtained a number of national patents and has been applied in many oil and gas storage and transportation units of PetroChina.
Application case Heating method Heat media oil pouring amount Heating temperature Production time Condensed water temperature Steam consumption Tube heater 0.8Mpa saturated steam 60T/t 30-60℃ 14 hours and 30 minutes 100℃ 14.6 tons new type Rapid heater 0.8Mpa saturated steam 60T/t 30-60℃ 1 hour 30 minutes 55℃ 1.96 tons