On January 26th, Mu Yuan Company disclosed its annual performance forecast for 22, and estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in that year would be 27 billion-29 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 341.58%-374.29%. The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is even higher, which is expected to reach 3 billion yuan-32 billion yuan.
it's no wonder that netizens call "super money-making machines" one after another, earning 1 million yuan a day!
in 22, Mu Yuan surpassed Wen to become the new "pig king" of China A-shares, while Qin Yinglin, as the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Mu Yuan, was increasingly chased by various media under the aura of the richest man in Henan.
He once said, "Every fluctuation of the pig cycle is an upgrade of the industry. The low cycle and epidemic situation will make the weak enterprises and farmers completely quit, but it is an opportunity for the dominant enterprises to make profits and develop".
Then, how did Qin Yinglin start from 22 pigs and go through one pig cycle after another, and develop Mu Yuan into the largest large-scale pig breeding enterprise in China?
1. He dares to bet
In China, the pig industry has a "pig cycle" of "earning one year, leveling one year and losing one year", that is, the pig price rises-a large number of retail investors enter the market-the supply of pork exceeds demand-the pig price falls-a large number of retail investors leave the market-the supply of pigs tightens-the pig price rises.
Behind the "pig cycle" is a highly retail competitive market in the pig industry in China. In view of this phenomenon, Qin Yinglin has been carrying out large-scale breeding since 1995 to resist the risk of periodic pig price fluctuation.
he has never been a man who is rich.
I graduated from Henan Agricultural University in 1989, majoring in animal husbandry, and then I was assigned to work in the state-owned meat joint factory in my hometown of Nanyang. Three years later, he resigned and started a business together with his wife Qian Ying, a veterinarian.
in the 199s, Qin Yinglin's corporate revenue exceeded 1 million yuan. In Nanyang, in that era, this is a great event. But he is still expanding, and he is bound to be the industry leader.
He bet that at the most difficult moment of the industry, others couldn't hold back, and Qin Yinglin was still expanding countercyclically.
From 28 to the first half of 21, pork prices continued to be low, and Liu Yonghao, the chairman of New Hope, even publicly asked: "The pig price cycle is weakening, the pig price is falling, and the feed cost is rising. Everyone has basically not made any money, right?"
against this background, the five-year plan set by Qin Yinglin in 21 is 5-8 million heads.
this style is much like Buffett!
In 21, Mu Yuan slaughtered 359, heads; In 214, it reached 1.859 million heads; In 218, it surged to 11.11 million.
in 22, Mu Yuan will sell 18.115 million pigs.
it completely expanded exponentially.
Second, he dared to borrow
Wang Jianlin once said, "How much does it cost to build a pig farm with 1, pigs? How much is it for us to build a five-star hotel? I didn't expect that the pig farm was so expensive. "
Therefore, Wanda gave up the pig industry.
In the past, farmers raised pigs, thinking that they made money. When they actually settled accounts, they didn't take into account the costs of pens, manpower, manure treatment, etc. Once all these were counted, they would find that the profit rate was originally very low.
Adding to the impact of African swine fever in 218, farmers who have no financial strength are almost defeated by the impact of market risks.
A sow has a bed of 2-3 square meters, and the cost is as high as 4, yuan. A complete epidemic prevention system needs to be built in a large-scale pig farm. Take the pig breeding project with one million heads as an example, the fixed capital investment is about 1 billion yuan, and 5 million yuan needs to be reserved as working capital.
capital barrier is the first threshold, followed by technical barriers and technical personnel barriers in breeding technology, disease prevention and control, drug residue control, etc.
once bank loans and the company's own profits can't cover the funds needed for enterprise development in time, the company's capacity expansion will also be restricted for a long time due to the influence of single financing channel, pig cycle and government macro-control.
Qin Yinglin, chairman of Mu Yuan, once said publicly: "People who raise pigs better than Mu Yuan are everywhere. Why can we go public? Why do we grow up so fast? After listing, I reflected for a long time before I realized that what really supported our development was to insist on paying back the bank loan. "
in 26, the listed shares of agricultural bank of China were changed, and it is planned to divest some assets and package them for disposal.
At that time, Mu Yuan's stock loan in the Agricultural Bank of China was 25.4 million yuan, which could actually be exempted after perfecting the procedures; However, Qin Yinglin insisted on repaying the loan and paid it off in full by the end of 27. This move won the trust of the financial sector and the "exceptional" support in the future.
in 21, without any collateral, many banks, such as Agricultural Bank, China CITIC Bank and Agricultural Development Bank, took the initiative to provide credit loans of 6 million yuan.
this laid a solid foundation for the expansion of Mu Yuan before listing.
four years later, Mu Yuan was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, broadening the financing channels.
Third, he dares to vote
First of all, the geographical location of aquaculture enterprises is very important.
Mu Yuan is rooted in Henan, which is the main grain producing area in China. In terms of the influence of temperature on the survival rate of piglets, the influence of region on the cost of feed purchase and the loss of transportation materials, Mu Yuan has the advantage of "geographical location" before the southern pig enterprises such as Wen's.
What's more, in recent years, China has strengthened the management of pig-raising areas, given strong support to Henan, Hebei, Heilongjiang and other provinces and cities, and imposed regional restrictions on pig-raising in southern water network cities.
Secondly, Mu Yuan has been optimizing its investment in aquaculture.
since 29, we have applied for patents, and at present, we have obtained 92 patents, mainly focusing on the construction of modern farms and barns, artificial climate and breeding equipment.
It is reported that its intelligent team has more than 1, people. Apart from those responsible for automatic control, there are also professionals in electrical, mechanical, communication, algorithm, etc., and technical, production, nutrition and veterinary departments are all involved, which is a cross-departmental team.
On June 5, 22, when investors asked Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. how many sows each breeder could manage, Mu Yuan replied that one breeder could raise 2,7-3,6 pigs at the same time.
It is far more efficient than the hundreds of heads raised by Wen's family farm.
under the dual advantages of region and mode, Mu Yuan's excellent cost control ability helps it to go through one pig cycle after another: it maintains the lowest complete cost in the industry, with 13 domestic free-range pig farmers to 15 yuan and other A-share pig enterprises to 12 yuan, but Mu Yuan is only 11.62 yuan.
On the sales side, Qin Yinglin resolutely does not use the reputation of lean meat, which makes the price of Mu Yuan pigs higher than the average market price of .1 yuan-.2 yuan/kg.
he can earn money when others lose money, and he can earn big money when others earn small money.
Faster than the capacity expansion speed of peers, and stronger profitability in the upward period of pig price make Mu Yuan stand out among the pig enterprises.
Fourth, he dares to expand countercyclically
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the average price of live pigs in China in the first half of last year was 33.9 yuan/kg, up 136.95% year-on-year. In terms of wholesale price, since May 22, the price of live pigs has continued to rise to 48.39 yuan/kg in August, making it the highest average wholesale price in January last year.
watching "the price of live pigs has rebounded sharply" rushed to the hot search, netizens teased one after another: this year's pork sausage is a little more noble.
Affected by this, the performance of listed pig enterprises in China is outstanding:
On January 23rd, Luo Niushan announced the annual performance forecast for 22, and it is estimated that the company will realize a net profit of 88 million-12 million yuan in 22, up by 192.96%-239.57% year-on-year.
on January 25th, Tang Renshen released the annual performance forecast for 22, and estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 22 would be 9 million-1.1 billion yuan, up by 344.76%-443.6% year-on-year.
on January 26th, Tianbang Company released its annual performance forecast for 22, and it is estimated that its net profit will reach 3.15 billion-3.3 billion yuan in 22, up by 337.37%-3186.77% over the same period of last year.
Behind the soaring performance is the reconstruction of the relationship between pork supply and demand by environmental protection policies and African swine fever.
The fecal pollution caused by the pig industry has been criticized repeatedly. In 214 and 215, the Regulations on Prevention and Control of Pollution in Livestock and Poultry Scale Breeding and the new Environmental Protection Law were successively promulgated, and small and medium-sized pig farms that did not meet the environmental protection policy withdrew from the domestic market.
however, compared with the new environmental protection policy, non-epidemic disease is the main factor of this round of pig price increase.
It is highly contagious and has a high mortality rate, so there is no effective vaccine at present. Non-epidemic diseases lead to large-scale slaughter of pigs by pig farmers in advance, reducing the scale.
Since the first case of African swine fever was diagnosed in August 218, nearly 1.2 million infected pigs have been culled nationwide. In 219, the number of live pigs was 31 million, a year-on-year decrease of 27.5%; 54 million pigs were slaughtered, down 21.6% year-on-year, and the number of pigs slaughtered decreased by 15 million compared with the previous year.
African swine fever has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity, but it has provided a window for Mu Yuan's rapid development.
On the one hand, Mu Yuan's self-breeding and self-feeding model has ensured the safety of sows in stock, and it is not necessary to face sow screening like cooperative farms, so as to provide enough piglets for slaughter.
On the other hand, Mu Yuan has been ignoring the pig cycle expansion: in 22, Mu Yuan will set up at least 93 subsidiaries, Sun Company and 6 joint ventures. Among the 99 companies, most of their main businesses are related to the pig industry chain, and a few are technology companies and finance companies.
In July 219, on CCTV's "Dialogue" program, Qin Yinglin once said that in the face of African swine fever, he experienced panic and hard battle, but he still won.
the list of the top 5 listed companies in China released by 21 data news lab shows that Mu Yuan ranks 6th with a market value of 289 billion yuan, while Wen ranks 17th with a market value of 116.2 billion yuan.
Mu Yuan plans to slaughter 5 million pigs in 221, which is the sum of Zhengbang technology and new hope.
Qin Yinglin is still expanding.