Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit, and “one machine is hard to find.”
Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit, and “one machine is hard to find.” As of now, among the domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, only vivo has not entered the market. Sales of foldable screen mobile phones during the Spring Festival are almost destined to remain in short supply. Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit and “it’s hard to find one.” Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit, “one machine is hard to find” 1
Recently, OPPO, Huawei, and Honor have successively released folding screen mobile phones. On January 22, a reporter from China Securities News visited a number of offline channel dealers in Shenzhen and found that folding screen mobile phones are still “hard to find”. Industry insiders believe that the current supply chain involves many new materials, the yield rate is low, production capacity is still insufficient, and manufacturers have insufficient stock, resulting in folding screen mobile phones being "hard to find".
Leading manufacturers are rushing to release new products, driving down prices, and the demand for foldable screen mobile phones has begun to increase. Many institutions predict that foldable screen mobile phone shipments will exceed 15 million units in 2022, doubling year-on-year. The new track attracts manufacturers to enter. Currently, domestic supply chain companies such as screens, hinges, and UTG glass protective covers are already making arrangements. As the supply chain matures and costs decrease, the price of foldable screen mobile phones will decrease, and the market penetration rate will gradually increase.
Insufficient production capacity in the initial stage
On January 22, when the reporter visited a Honor channel dealer in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, the store staff said that the store There is no Honor foldable screen mobile phone in stock, and it needs to be transferred from other stores, but the price will increase.
At an OPPO authorized experience store in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, the reporter learned that the OPPO Find N folding screen mobile phone was also out of stock. This phone starts at 7,699 yuan each, igniting the market. On January 10, OPPO said that the number of online reservations for the OPPO Find N folding flagship mobile phone exceeded 1 million.
On January 18, Honor CEO Zhao Ming said: "The popularity of the first-selling foldable flagship Honor Magic V has exceeded our expectations, and it is difficult to find one through all channels. We are working overtime to make arrangements. Production will be started at the same time, and pre-sales will be launched as soon as possible according to the queue order. "
In the folding screen mobile phone market, Samsung and Huawei are the leading manufacturers. Samsung's market strategy is quite radical. In August 2021, Samsung released new products with prices dropping to 7,599 yuan each, driving global folding screen mobile phone shipments. Research institution DSCC reported that in the third quarter of 2021, global folding screen mobile phone shipments reached 2.6 million units, a month-on-month increase of 215% and a year-on-year increase of 480%. Samsung accounts for 93% of folding screen mobile phone shipments, and Huawei ranks second in shipments, accounting for 6. In December 2021, Huawei P50 treasure box will be sold starting at 8,988 yuan. This is also Huawei’s first foldable phone priced under 10,000 yuan. screen mobile phone.
Industry insiders believe that although the price of folding screen mobile phones has dropped from 10,000-20,000 yuan per unit to less than 10,000 yuan, the price is still expensive and the products are targeted at niche markets, which has also led to brands not being able to sell them. Dare to stock up too much. In addition, because the supply chain involves many new materials, the yield rate is low and production capacity is still insufficient.
An executive of a mobile phone industry chain company told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that folding screen mobile phones are the "pearl" of the mobile phone market. Due to high pricing, its user base is mainly business people and electronic product "enthusiasts" ". The price of OPPO's foldable screen mobile phones exceeded users' expectations, and the user base began to expand.
The relevant person in charge of the panel manufacturer Visionox told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that the folding screen can perfectly combine "small size and large display" and is suitable for office, entertainment and other application scenarios. Currently, leading mobile phone manufacturers around the world have strong demand for flexible folding screens. At the same time, many key components of folding screen mobile phones have become more and more mature in the past two years, such as flexible screens, hinges, flexible covers, and content adaptation. Many problems have been overcome. Foldable screen mobile phones are recognized by consumers and demand is rising rapidly.
Regarding the mismatch between market supply and demand, the relevant person in charge of Visionox said that the folding screen mobile phone market is currently in its infancy and has just begun to fully blossom among leading mobile phone manufacturers. Since the price of foldable screen mobile phones is positioned at the high end of the brand, the supply is relatively small, and it is generally "hard to find one." Panel manufacturers’ overall shipments of foldable screens are also relatively limited, and they are actively reducing costs and improving product quality to cope with the upcoming larger market space.
Leading Apple, there is room for price reduction
Zhao Ming believes that folding screen mobile phones in 2022 will be a good opportunity for domestic Android manufacturers to enter the high-end phone market. The market size Will zoom in quickly. The foldable screen mobile phone is no longer a test product, it can be used as the main flagship mobile phone. In the future, candybar mobile phones and folding screen mobile phones will develop in parallel.
CINNO Research predicts that global sales of foldable screen mobile phones are expected to reach 15.69 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 107%. Southwest Securities predicts that global foldable screen mobile phone shipments will reach 18 million-20 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of more than 100, and the penetration rate will increase from 0.18 in 2021 to 1.83.
Zhao Ming believes that mobile phone manufacturers must be able to create folding screen products that fully meet consumers' needs in the closed and unfolded states of the product. Many suppliers said that for folding screen mobile phones, they want to work with Honor to make the industry chain better and bigger.
Industry insiders predict that vivo will also launch a folding screen mobile phone in 2022. As a leader in the consumer electronics industry, Apple has yet to launch a foldable screen phone. A person from an Apple industry chain company once told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that Apple’s current strategy is to seek stability and wait until the foldable screen mobile phone enters the “volume” stage before releasing it. According to Tianfeng International analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, Apple may launch a folding screen iPhone in 2023, predicting that folding screen iPhone shipments in 2023 will be 15 million to 20 million units.
CITIC Construction Investment analyzed that the current folding screen mobile phones still have some shortcomings that need to be improved, such as creases, weight, price and high cost.
The relevant person in charge of Visionox said that at present, folding screen mobile phones are still high-end phones in the "early adopter category" and the price is slightly higher. Although the prices of foldable screen mobile phones have dropped rapidly in the past two years, there is still room for further decline. As far as screen manufacturers are concerned, flexible AMOLED manufacturers mainly reduce product prices by improving product yields and reducing raw material costs for display screens. Currently, the yield rate of mature flexible display products has reached a very impressive figure. In the future, with the coordinated cost reduction of the industry chain, the increased application of end products and the release of more panel production capacity, there is still room for continued improvement in folding screen yields, and product prices will also fall further.
OPPO chief product officer Liu Zuohu believes: “After the supply chain and industrial chain mature, the folding screen mobile phone market will soon change. It may be less than two years, and the price of folding screen mobile phones will be equivalent to the price of current flagship phones. , each sold for 5,000 to 6,000 yuan. Everyone needs to think about whether there is more innovative experience.” CITIC Securities said that it is optimistic about the cost reduction brought about by the improvement of the folding screen mobile phone market technology maturity. The clamshell type dominates, and the mainstream price range drops to 5,000 yuan to 8,000 yuan per unit. As the price center shifts downward in the future, the foldable screen mobile phone market is expected to grow rapidly, with global shipments expected to exceed 65 million units in 2025. The short-term market is still dominated by Samsung, which is expected to occupy 60-65 share in 2022.
Make arrangements in advance to grab the cake
The new folding screen market is booming, and companies in the industry chain will also benefit. Chen Weida, secretary of the board of directors of Changxin Technology, told a reporter from China Securities Journal that increasing the volume of foldable screen mobile phones may be more beneficial to a few companies, that is, companies that can provide incremental components.
CITIC Construction Investment believes that the key technical points and value increments of the folding screen mobile phone industry chain are mainly flexible OLED, UTG glass protective covers, hinges and shafts.
From the perspective of flexible OLED, currently it is mainly supplied by panel manufacturers such as Samsung, BOE, TCL Technology, and Visionox. The relevant person in charge of Visionox said that as domestic mobile phone companies continue to strengthen the layout of folding screen mobile phones and the huge domestic consumer demand, more folding screen mobile phones will be launched in the next two years, and Visionox will also have more market share, and is expected to Introducing domestic folding screen supply.
Judging from the UTG glass protective cover, Samsung has led the market trend after launching the UTG glass protective cover folding screen mobile phone in 2020. Brokerage analysis said that most folding screen mobile phones previously used CPI (colorless transparent polyimide film) covers that are better in terms of bending performance and cost. In the future, UTG (ultra-thin glass) protective covers will gradually replace CPI and become the mainstream material for folding screen covers. Samsung is currently the main supplier, and OPPO Find N uses Samsung’s UTG glass protective cover solution.
An industry chain person told a reporter from the China Securities Journal: "The folding screen mobile phones to be launched soon by Xiaomi and vivo may also use Samsung UTG glass protective covers."
A few A-share industries The company is laying out UTG glass protective covers. The reporter learned that Changxin Technology is currently one of the companies with leading technology reserves for UTG glass protective covers. Chen Weida told a reporter from the China Securities Journal: "UTG has better visual effects than the CPI solution and is relatively difficult to scratch and crease, but the cost is higher. The company has developed a variety of products suitable for UTG, including UTG glass protective covers. . Components are currently being tested with customers, and have been recognized by end customers, and have also received firm orders. The customer said that the launch of folding screen mobile phones equipped with UTG glass protective covers will be accelerated at any time as long as customers need it. Energy production. ”
The hinge is a key technical point of folding screen mobile phones, but it is difficult to make. Liu Zuohu said that the key to the hinge is not the manufacturing, but the design. The design depends on the mobile phone manufacturer's own skills. OPPO spent 4 years iterating on the hinge.
Brokerages predict that by 2023, the folding screen mobile phone hinge market is expected to reach more than 6 billion yuan. This also allows some manufacturers to conduct market layout. Wang Tao, the securities representative of Jingyan Technology, told a reporter from the China Securities Journal that for folding screen mobile phones, the company has been supplying MIM parts for hinges to Samsung and one of the top three international consumer electronics brands since 2019. In 2020, the company began to cooperate with customers in the research and development of the entire hinge, which is currently in the sample stage. The foldable screen mobile phone market is expanding, bringing new business growth points to the company. However, the hinge space is small and there are hundreds of parts, making the design difficult. In the folding screen mobile phone market, Samsung and Huawei are the first-mover brands. If other brands want to enter the market, they must also avoid the patents of the first-mover brands. Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit, and “one machine is hard to find” 2
As of now, among the domestic mainstream mobile phone manufacturers, only vivo has not entered the game. However, industry sources say that vivo will launch its own folding screen mobile phone in the first quarter of 2022. Although Apple has not released a folding screen mobile phone product so far, there are also rumors in the market that Apple will launch a new folding screen product in 2023.
Although as the industry chain gradually matures, the prices of folding screen mobile phones released this year have begun to loosen, but the price of the entire category is still firmly locked at nearly 7,000 yuan. However, high prices have not deterred consumers from trying new products, and sales of foldable screen mobile phones during the Spring Festival are almost destined to remain in short supply.
Whether it is in offline stores or on e-commerce platforms, several recently launched folding screen mobile phones are almost all out of stock, and even because "one machine is hard to find", businesses such as proxy auctions and scalpers have been derived.
Recently, reporters from "IT Times" visited mobile phone stores to investigate the market supply and demand for foldable screen mobile phones.
Store: Sold out as soon as the goods arrive
On January 17, the reporter went to a mobile phone store in Minhang District, Shanghai, where Huawei, Xiaomi, Honor, OPPO, etc. gathered together Many mobile phone brand stores.
Walking into the store, almost every store has posters of the latest folding screen mobile phones, such as Huawei P50 Pocket, OPPO Find N, Samsung W22... The most eye-catching one is the Honor Magic V, which will be on sale for a limited time at 10:08 on January 18. poster.
Unlike the large posters, in the prototype display area, only Samsung placed several of its own folding screen mobile phones in the middle. Huawei, OPPO, Honor, etc. did not Folding mobile phones are placed in the "C position", and the Xiaomi MIX FOLD launched in March 2021 does not even have a prototype.
According to the Xiaomi store clerk, “When MIX FOLD first went on sale, there were probably less than ten units in stock here. Now there is no stock in the store. If you need to buy it, you can place an order at Xiaomi Mall, which costs about ten units. It will arrive in about five days.”
How is the Huawei Mate X2, which was launched one month earlier than Xiaomi MIX FOLD? A Huawei store clerk told reporters, "Currently, only the 18,999 yuan collector's edition of Mate What about the supply of new folding screen mobile phones that will be released in December 2021 and January 2022?
A Huawei store clerk said: "When Huawei P50 Pocket went on sale, we got five or six units here, and they were all sold out. Now we can't place an order, we can only give customers a try." The Honor store clerk said that the prototype of Honor Magic V only arrived last Friday (January 14), and the quantity was not large.
Compared with Huawei, Samsung and others, which often cost over 10,000 yuan, the price of OPPO Find N appears to be more affordable. "Among the many folding screen mobile phones, OPPO sells the best, probably because the price is more easily accepted by customers." A store manager told reporters: "The inventory of folding screen mobile phones in the store is actually about the same. When it is first launched, there are usually only It ranges from a few units to a dozen units, and is usually shipped once a week. Based on sales volume and customer demands, the next time the manufacturer supplies is generally more than the last time, but the maximum number is only about 20 units, depending on the sales situation. Brands are sold out almost as soon as they arrive. ”
Compared with the insufficient supply of domestic mobile phones, Samsung’s folding screen series supply is more stable. A Samsung store clerk said: “Since the launch of foldable screen mobile phones, we have basically maintained sales of one unit a day, and the sales volume is no worse than that of ordinary screen mobile phones. Among them, Flip3 is the most popular.” After the reporter inquired, in the entire store, except for the sales volume, The Huawei Mate X2 Collector's Edition, which is priced as high as 18,999 yuan, is only available in the Samsung folding screen series, and you can order it on the spot.
E-commerce platform: only members can snap up new phones
On January 18, reporters once again went to the mobile phone store to wait for the launch of Honor Magic V. The clerk said that although it was the opening day, there was actually only one mobile phone in stock, the inventory was very limited, and it had been ordered by customers in advance. At around 10 a.m., the only Honor Magic V in the store was officially handed over to the customer. The store clerk sent flowers to the customer and took a group photo. When the reporter asked when the next batch of goods would arrive, the clerk replied "not sure."
Offline reservations are required in advance. Is there sufficient supply online? This Honor Magic V has purchase channels on Taobao, JD.com and other platforms, but they are all marked as "limited time and limited edition". Most of the e-commerce platforms adopt the sales strategy of "rush to buy on time". If you want to buy something, you have to use your hands faster.
"IT Times" reporters also found that each platform has put forward "identity requirements" for buyers, requiring buyers to be members of the platform, such as Taobao 88vip, JD.com PLUS members, etc. . According to the customer service of the official Honor flagship store on Taobao: "Honor Magic V is in scarce stock and has purchase restrictions. Currently, only 88vip or store platinum members or above are eligible to snap up.
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The reporter tried to buy the Honor Magic V on Taobao as an 88vip member. Currently, the only model available for purchase is the bright black 512G version. At 10:08 in the morning, when the reporter was about to place an order, in an instant, The system displays the message that the product is sold out, and the mobile phone has been "sold out". According to the Taobao store information, the next sale will be at 10:08 on January 25th and the supply frequency of offline stores. Close.
According to the reporter, the Honor Magic V model has been on sale four times on Taobao Honor’s official flagship store, all of which are limited editions. Judging from the monthly sales volume shown on the page, as of now. At the time of writing, the display showed 1,000. In the Honor JD self-operated flagship store, before the sale on January 25, the system showed that 19,087 people had made reservations.
Because it is not easy to buy, some platforms still have reservations. The proxy auction business was derived. On Xianyu, when searching for "Honor Folding Screen Mobile Phone", the top searches were for "proxy auction and purchase" services, with prices ranging from 50 to 100. The reporter clicked on a "fish". "Tang", which reads "Professional proxy shooting, JD.com official flagship store"; "Use your account number, no full refund, only for JD.com PLUS members"; "Only help place the order, you will pay when you take the photo"... …In addition, many merchants have also shown their past proxy auction results.
According to the delivery instructions on the e-commerce store page, Honor Magic V will be shipped within 50 days after payment. The delivery time varies by region. Obviously, it is not easy to buy a "top-notch" folding phone.
There are people who want it for a premium of 4,000 yuan.
On January 18, news related to the launch of Honor Magic V appeared on Weibo hot search, and many netizens commented: "Offline price increased by 14,999", "Limited purchases are sold at increased prices", "Don't fatten the scalpers"... One Honor's provincial dealers also previously revealed to the media that there are very few Honor Magic V products available offline. In addition to the limited supply and limited production capacity, one of the reasons is that the product has to be priced at a premium.
According to official platform information, the Honor Magic V 256G is priced at 9,999 yuan and the 512G is priced at 10,999 yuan. Due to the small quantity, if you want to buy it now, you can only wait for a limited time sale or find third-party platforms and scalpers. On mainstream e-commerce platforms, the Honor Magic V 256G glossy black model is priced at a premium of 11,399 yuan, 12,906 yuan, 13,888 yuan, etc. The same type of titanium space silver is several hundred to one yuan more expensive than the glossy black model. Prices range from 1,000 yuan to over 10,000 yuan. The most popular Magic V 512G in bright black is priced at over 15,000 yuan.
Some netizens even call the popular folding screen phone "solid Moutai".
The Honor Magic V that has just been launched is generally priced at a premium. What about other folding screen phones? The OPPO flagship store on Taobao shows that the OPPO Find N 512G model will go on sale in limited quantities at 10:00 on January 19, priced at 8,999 yuan. Since then, it has been robbed. There are also sales at a slight premium on second-hand platforms, with most prices ranging from 9,100 to 9,500 yuan. Similarly, the price premium of Huawei P50 Pocket ranges from 500 to 1,000 yuan.
"Judging from the current situation, the technology of folding screen mobile phones is not particularly perfect, and there are not many compatible apps, so the supply chain dare not expand too much." Wang Peng, associate professor at Renmin University of China, told reporters , when the production capacity is limited and the market demand is unclear, a market testing process is required, that is, a small amount is put on the market first and the market feedback is observed. At the same time, when supply is limited, a so-called imbalance between supply and demand will inevitably occur, leading to high prices.
Industry insiders said that all folding screen mobile phones are waiting for a real hit, which will double the production capacity of folding screen mobile phones. When folding screen mobile phones can "take off", it will really be Things have changed.
Folding screen mobile phones are a big hit, “one machine is hard to find” 3
According to news on January 22, according to the CINNO WeChat public account, 2021 will be a year when folding screen smartphones become more popular. Except for Apple, mainstream Smartphone brands will gather in the folding screen mobile phone camp in 2022, and the folding screen mobile phone market will become another important track for flexible AMOLED in 2022.
CINNO Research believes that folding screen smartphone models will continue to be enriched and prices will continue to drop. In the future, the form of foldable screen mobile phone products may be mainly vertical folding, and the price will drop to the 5,000-8,000 yuan range, targeting the mid-to-high-end mass market. The second is the horizontal inward discount, which is positioned in the high-end business market and is mainly priced at around 10,000 yuan.
CINNO Research predicts that the global market sales of foldable screen smartphones are expected to reach 15.69 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 107%. Among them, Samsung will still occupy a dominant position, with a market share estimated to exceed 70%. In the future, with the continued decline in the cost of folding machines, technological innovation, gradual enrichment of products, and continuous software upgrades, the market size will continue to expand. CINNO Research believes that global sales of folding screen smartphones are expected to reach 57.4 million units in 2025, with an annual sales of 57.4 million units. The average compound growth rate CAGR reaches 66.