What is the current situation of joint venture sales of new energy products? Statistically speaking, the feeling may not be deep. But as long as you walk into the store at close range, the taste is not only sour but also terrible.
Market impression
Does not contain the public ID. At least a group of customers in the store look at ID every day, and those who look at GTE may be pulled from the customers of the fuel truck.
BBA is different, and each has its own difficulties. BMW mainly sells iX3 and i3, with discounts of 332,000 yuan and 262,000 yuan. Customers often know in advance that BMW has new energy sources, but when they arrive at the store, they may give the impression that the configuration is low and the price is high. Come here for nothing else, just to strengthen your confidence in buying domestic new energy.
Even in BBA, Audi's new energy layout is relatively small. At present, only Q4 etron and A6L are on sale in the store. Almost no customers rush to new energy sources, all of which are in-store conversion considerations. Usually they have Audi cars at home. Brand loyalty seems ok, but the conversion rate is really touching.
Mercedes-Benz customers came to the store, and none of them came to see new energy for several months. They don't even know that Mercedes-Benz has new energy. So for the first time, someone wanted to see it. Everyone in the store has a big alarm in his mind, suspecting that the customer is the undercover of the manufacturer. But no matter what you come to see, the salesman will take the customer around the new energy. As long as the customer has not started swearing, it will be difficult to push. Because there is a new energy performance fine in the store.
The word contrast of the shop tutor is Weilai ET7. Objectively speaking, the chassis texture of EQE is indeed much stronger than the latter. But customers only know competing products, which is the problem.
Japan's new energy? Not to mention. Just to say a little, Toyota pure electricity can really be seen on the street, not a verification code. The verification code is too ugly to see. Toyota iA5 is written on the back of the ass, but there is a Chuanqi brand hanging in the middle, which makes people very entangled.
Joint venture is the product of a specific historical stage.
Of course, all joint ventures have new energy bases. Although the sales volume of the second-line joint venture collapsed in the first two months of this year, it goes without saying that it will pack up immediately. This year marks the 40th anniversary of Santana. Babies born at that time are all middle-aged now. People are like this, how can they feel?
When it was introduced, the Germans were in a state of mind. At that time, the only reliable consumption was large enterprises and party and government organs, and personal consumption did not begin until 20 years later. Who would have predicted that an agricultural country (yes, industrialization was not completed at that time) would become the number one industrial country in the world in 20 years? It is not only the first, but also the only country in the world that has all the industrial categories and subcategories of the United Nations (465,438+0 industrial categories and 525 subcategories). Today, the industrial added value is equivalent to the sum of G7, and the actual purchasing power is stronger than G7.
In such a country with the most complete supply chain, the largest vehicle market and the largest number of R&D patents (excluding appearance patents), is it strange that automobile brands gradually occupy a dominant position?
That's why the United States is betting on sanctions against China in the chip field, because there is nothing else to bet on.
Any predator in nature is very sensitive to fast-moving things, because it indicates high-priority food or threat. Similarly, we often turn a blind eye to things that are long and slow. People are also the product of this evolution. It may exaggerate the impact of the status quo, but ignore the slow long-term accumulation effect.
So, what is the long-term trend of the automobile industry? Obviously, with the rise of brand groups in China, the territory of joint ventures has been gradually squeezed.
The strong get weak, and the weak run away. A joint venture is not eternal, but a product of a specific historical period.
It is time.
Since the market share of China brand reached more than 50% at the end of last year (5,438+10 in June, the overall market share of China brand passenger cars was 5 1.6%), the trend has been quite clear.
Get more than half of the shares independently, and the rest will be divided into joint ventures. German department is still at 22.9%, showing brand margin and strategic depth; Japanese, who once kept abreast with German, now has a market share of 16.6%. The United States is 7.7%; Korean and legal system accounted for 1.2%. It's only a matter of time before they come out. In fact, from a financial point of view, they should have quit a long time ago. Holding back from giving up may be due to venue considerations (I can't stay in the world's largest single market, and my face is not good).
New energy is an industry loss, but this is only a temporary deadlock. It will soon become part of making money and the other part will be out.
BYD Want Want, Geely Galaxy, Chery Mars (Architecture), Chang 'an Deep Blue, Aian Haobo, SAIC Zhiji. These sub-brands were released from last year to this year. Among the new forces, Nezha and Zero Run, which were originally low-end products, also released more expensive items.
Why do you do it at the high end? Is profit. At this time, the market share of the joint venture in new energy is 2.7%, which is basically the same. With the current market atmosphere, fierce competition and the overall ability of the industry, it is time to start eating cakes independently.
Sinking market: the future world competition line
In the past, China brands always avoided joint ventures, and others made differentiated products just as China brands did. At present, the frequency of releasing new cars on the market and the voice of publicity are greater than those of joint ventures. Things haven't come out yet, it's just a temporary advantage.
Most of the new energy sources planned by the joint venture are coming up after 2025, and the cucumber vegetables are cold. Because technology is inherited, a new generation of products, no matter how many new technologies are adopted, will inherit at least 70% of the old technologies, so as to ensure reliability and research and development cycle. Platformization based on E-E architecture is a sharp weapon to shorten the cycle.
Most joint ventures are still in the stage of just getting rid of oil and changing to electricity and starting to launch the first batch of pure blood and pure electricity products. The accumulation of strength promotes the change of market structure, while the public's impression and consumption preference are obviously lagging behind. Fourth-and fifth-tier cities or towns, it is better to be a joint venture of 654.38+0.4 million, rather than a domestic hybrid with strong power of 100 kilometers and three oils. It is not that they are insensitive to the price difference (these people are very sensitive to the cost of holding), but that their cognition has not kept up.
In addition, cars have social value. This is what we recognize, but our visual dead angle is that we only recognize that luxury cars (such as hundreds of thousands and millions) have social value, that is, they have face among acquaintances when they drive out. We just don't recognize the family car of 65,438+10,000, and we also have this consumption logic.
Actually, there is. The market is sinking. We made the mistake of focusing only on the first line and automatically replaced it with the general law of the market. The complexity of the China market far exceeds the differences within the 26 EU countries.
The understanding of this part of the market is lagging behind, which has advantages and disadvantages for joint ventures and autonomy. New forces rarely sink the market, but joint ventures and autonomy attach great importance to it.
If the joint venture finds that it can't stay in the first, second and third lines in the future, it can only rely on sinking the market, trading space for time and seeking counterattack; For autonomy, the initial refueling vehicle was the route of "taking the countryside to surround the city". Now the new energy should be reversed, and the sinking market will be plowed into a new niche market sooner or later, which means it will be a dish on the plate sooner or later. After all, the cost of traveling to 30 yuan and hundreds of kilometers is to lift a tanker (think about the residual value of a car of 65,438+10,000 yuan is not funny).
Evidence of trend evolution
China brand originally took the route of "giving more", that is, the chassis, power and workmanship were slightly poor, but the comfort equipment was given more. This practice has been ridiculed many times.
In the past few years, China brand has hired a bunch of foreign designers to improve its design level. In recent years, designers in China have mastered the design language and abandoned the exotic dross of "dolls".
The paper strength of the new energy as the power, first smashed the ordinary fuel family car, then enlarged the move and took the step of "giving more".
The whole car screen, starry roof, car refrigerator, seat ventilation and heating, embedded door handle, lidar, automatic driving, 6C charging, Internet of Everything, intelligent assistant ... all are on the pile. In high-end cars, joint ventures can still survive, because joint ventures are also stacking materials at high ends. But hundreds of thousands of cars do the same, which is a bit "lightning five whips". People don't have me, people have me.
There is also a sign. At least this year, China brand didn't hear the word "cost-effective" when releasing new products and cars.
This shows that at least on the operator's side, the original guilty performance is gone, and everyone feels stronger.
Even when various water forces attacked China, the word "low" was enough. Now the main attack words are sweatshops, patriotic marketing, hunger marketing, copying Tesla, cheating subsidies, and poor reliability. Anyway, it requires a lot of verbal commitment. What is the reality reflected by the cause of the attack focus?
Observation of human steam:
In fact, the fact that the joint venture entered the second half in China is not the future, but a fact that has already happened. Of course, the progress is different. Simply put, ordinary family cars, the third line comes first, the second line is marginalized, and the first line struggles to survive; Luxury cars have a smaller depth and no three lines. Two wires have been wetted or nearly wetted, and one wire collides with each other. The first-line multinational brands will not be completely eliminated, but the scenery is not as good as it is now.
Last year, Hyundai-Kia sold more than 300,000 cars in China. I think it has surpassed1100,000 vehicles in modern times alone. However, it did not prevent Hyundai-Kia from performing strongly in the global market and winning the third place. This shows that it is only the beginning stage for China to go out, gain market and establish popularity.
For developed markets, Hyundai Kia is playing with cost performance and differentiation. If China brand goes out, if only commercial factors are considered, it is not a problem to turn over Koreans. However, the market is very complicated, such as South Korea's battery supply chain in the United States and the deployment of vehicle production capacity without any obstacles. Try switching to China brand?
However, assuming that China enterprises encounter setbacks in the future, it is not good news for joint ventures. China will only have more volumes, and the result is self-evident.
This article comes from the author Hao, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.