First, the development status of dynamic traffic information services at home and abroad
Dynamic traffic information service has always been a hot topic in the field of intelligent transportation. Governments and enterprises in developed countries such as Japan, Europe and the United States have invested a lot of energy and resources in the research and application of traffic information services as an effective means to solve the traffic difficulties in big cities. Through continuous international industrial cooperation and extensive alliances, dynamic traffic information services are developing in the direction of integration and platform, and at the same time, a huge industrial market has been formed in related facilities construction, terminal equipment sales and various service applications.
Developed countries have gained a lot of research experience in the application of traffic information service system, and obtained remarkable social and economic benefits from it. China began to actively follow the development of international intelligent transportation system technology in 1990s. After years of development, the construction of intelligent transportation system in China has entered a development period, and great progress has been made in software, product development, technical standards and industrialization. However, compared with developed countries, traffic information service still has a big gap and faces great challenges.
1, development status abroad
Japan VICS 1
Japan began the research of intelligent transportation system as early as 1960s. 1970 installed the vehicle traffic control system (VTCS) in Tokyo, Japan, 1973- 1978 studied the vehicle integrated control system (CACS). 198 1, the first car sold by Honda. It was assembled on the Accord. 1987, Toyota used CRT technology to display maps on Crown Cars, which was the first time in the automobile industry. 1994 65438+ 10, the Japan intelligent road traffic vehicle promotion association (VERTIS) was established, mainly composed of private enterprises and organizations. Its members include academic organizations, industries and institutions related to intelligent transportation systems, and form a joint conference system with five relevant government ministries and institutions. 1In July, 1996, the five ministries and agencies jointly formulated the Comprehensive Planning of Intelligent Transportation System and System Structure, which defined the long-term goal of the research and development of intelligent transportation system in Japan, including 9 development fields and 20 kinds of user services. Its development fields include guidance system, electronic toll collection system, safe driving system, optimizing traffic management, improving traffic management efficiency, supporting public transportation, improving commercial vehicle management, supporting pedestrians and supporting emergency vehicle management. As a typical example of actual construction, the vehicle-mounted information communication system, also known as "VICS", was put into use in April 1996 by providing traffic information as the forerunner of the navigation system, and its scope has been continuously expanded since then, covering highways and major cities in Japan. The Global Traffic Management System (UTMS) has been built in Japan, and it is realized by VICS, bus priority signal control and bus priority system. The vehicle operation management system based on UTMS has been verified in 1998 Yokohama Winter Olympics. 200 1 the traffic information system based on floating cars was tested by a P- DRGS cooperation group composed of Nagoya University, NEC, Denso, Toyota, A- works and Japan Meteorological Association. By analyzing the data provided by 1500 taxis, we can provide taxi passengers with vehicle matching support.
After continuous development and improvement in recent years, VICS has been able to publish and provide real-time travel information all over Japan, including real-time road conditions and travel time prediction, parking lot information, traffic events and weather conditions. It has made great contributions to improving traffic safety, smoothness and environment. As of March 2006,180,000 vehicles have used VICS system. According to the survey report of Fuji Chimei, the total ITS market in Japan in 2004 was 84,665,438+billion yen (about 6,565,438+billion yuan). According to the survey, ITS related market is divided into three areas: vehicle-mounted equipment, road workshop communication infrastructure and system services. It is predicted that by 20 10, the whole market scale will exceed 1.7 1 trillion yen (about RMB131500 million yuan, an increase of 102% over 2004), among which the system.
1.2 EU er tico-TMC
Discussions about ITS began to appear in Europe from the late 1960s to the early 1970s. In the second half of 1970s, Bosch and Volkswagen began to set foot in the experimental plan of communication and navigation between road vehicles. 1988, at the initiative of French President Mitterrand, the governments and business circles of nine countries in Europe/KLOC-0 started a joint development plan called "Eureka", aiming at establishing a trans-European intelligent highway network with an investment of 5 billion US dollars. In order to put the research results into use as soon as possible, the European Commission and private enterprises (automobile, electronics and communication industries) set up the European Organization for Road Transport Information and Communication Cooperation (ERTICO), which is responsible for the links between industries and local governments, and between the central government and governments outside the EU. ERTICO, as an advisory body of the European Commission, has made a strategic and practical plan to promote the standardization process.
ERTICO's mission is to promote and support the application of ITS throughout Europe, create a more satisfactory traffic environment and achieve good economic benefits. Through ERTICO, enterprises and institutions can cooperate more effectively, and jointly create a successful European ITS market without being restricted by departments and countries.
The representative traffic information systems in Europe are SOCRATES, EURO SCOUT, TrafficMaster and RDS-TMC. Among them, RDS-TMC is the most successful and widely used large-scale traffic information solution. RDS is a European specification for data broadcasting system formulated by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) in 1984. TMC (Traffic Information Channel) is a digital coding system.
In 2003, ITIS launched a traffic information service based on floating car data, including vehicle travel time prediction and stolen vehicle tracking. The number of floating cars in the system reaches about 50,000. VISUM Online in Germany is an ideal platform for Advanced Travel Information System (ATIS). Its kernel algorithm integrates detector data, floating car (FCD) data and traffic accident data, and the information obtained by VISUM Online can be published directly through the network. Trafficmaster is a real-time traffic information provider in Europe, which mainly focuses on fixed detection data, supplemented by floating car data, and provides services for on-board equipment, mobile phone services and fixed or mobile networks. Countries such as the Netherlands and Denmark are conducting small-scale experiments on dynamic traffic information services based on floating cars.
1.3 US ITS
In 1960s, the United States put forward the plan of electronic guidance system, that is, guiding or prompting drivers to choose the most reasonable driving route through two-way communication between roads and vehicles. Because there was no support from the federal parliament at that time, it could not be carried out. In the second half of 1980s, under the influence of Japanese and European research activities, the United States began to support and develop it.
2. Domestic development status
2. 1 The development of automobile industry and related industries has pushed China's car navigation market into a period of large-scale development.
Chart of sales growth rate of vehicle-mounted GPS equipment in China
In recent years, with the continuous improvement of people's living standards, cars have gradually entered families and become necessities of life, and the growth rate of cars will be greatly improved in the next few years. Vehicle-mounted GPS system has huge market potential and immeasurable development prospect. We estimate that the demand for GPS system in domestic automobile market will increase by more than 30% every year. The biggest feature of car GPS is its navigation, positioning, anti-theft and other functions. In North America, Europe, Japan and other places where GPS is widely used, the sales volume of car navigation ranks first in all kinds of GPS markets. However, in the past, the vehicle GPS market in China has been blocked by technical application and market scale. With the continuous improvement of technical level and product maturity in recent two years, especially the rapid development of automobile market, China's vehicle GPS market has entered a period of large-scale development, and the future domestic vehicle GPS market has considerable prospects. It is believed that with the gradual improvement of electronic maps closely related to GPS and the continuous enrichment of dynamic contents, the practicability of GPS will be continuously improved, and its market capacity will be greatly increased with the development of China automobile market. Dynamic navigation will gradually replace static navigation.
Statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, HC Automotive Research Institute and China Auto New Network show that China's car navigation market is still in the initial stage of market launch, and its demand is estimated to be about 550,000 units. If the price of each set is 4,000 yuan, it may become a market of10 billion yuan in three to five years. According to statistics, the number of private cars in China has reached more than 45 million. According to the forecast of the State Council Development Research Center, the number of cars in China will reach 56.69 million in 20 10, and it will reach 13 103 million in 2020. According to the research report of China GPS Association, by 20 10, the annual sales volume of automobile autonomous navigation system will reach 1000000, and the number of automobiles will be 5 million.
It can be predicted that the prospect of the vehicle GPS market will be more and more broad. The growth of global automobile market mainly comes from China, and the rapid development of China navigation system market has a decisive impact on the global market. In the future, the application of satellite navigation vehicles in China will develop in the following aspects: the market of vehicle monitoring system begins to show a trend of large-scale demand, and the key to its development lies in improving product quality and application services, especially focusing on professional applications to bring practical benefits to users; Various navigation systems, especially car navigation systems, have achieved breakthroughs in technology, products, services and system integration, and are becoming more and more mature, which is expected to form a batch market in a short time; The information service industry, which develops synchronously with the vehicle application system, has been launched in many cities and will become one of the main forces of industrial development in the next few years. The integration trend of vehicle navigation and monitoring is the general direction of product development; The application of satellite navigation vehicles in China will present a diversified trend, marching into depth and breadth.
2.2 Compared with the international level, China's car GPS market has a huge development space.
The data shows that the potential market value of the whole GPS is as high as tens of billions of yuan, but the number of domestic car navigation systems is less than 5%.
The development of automobile industry has also driven the related car navigation industry. Compared with western countries, the market potential of GPS navigation in China is huge. By the end of 2007, the penetration rate of vehicle navigation equipment in China was less than 5%. The installation rate of car navigation is as high as 59% in Japan and about 25% in Europe and America. At the same time, in North America, Europe, Japan and other places, the sales volume of car navigation ranks first in all kinds of GPS markets, while the development of GPS navigation in China is still in the introduction period. According to the conservative forecast of a Japanese research institute, by 20 10, the on-board output value of China will at least exceed 20 billion yuan. Faced with such a large potential market demand, various manufacturers have launched various navigation products.
2.3 Overview of Beijing Vehicle Dynamic Navigation Market
China's dynamic navigation service industry has just started and is in the stage of commercial testing. At present, the traditional static navigation technology is adopted in the navigators and mobile navigation products on the market, and the viscosity of the products is not high, and the penetration rate is only 2%. According to the market survey of "dynamic navigation information service" in Beijing, 70% drivers are willing to buy navigators and information services with dynamic navigation function. The market demand is strong and the development space is huge.
At present, the key technologies such as data collection, processing and release of Beijing Intelligent Transportation System have reached the international level. The data quality has been tested, with a coverage rate of 74.2% and an accuracy rate of 84.5%, reaching the quasi-commercial level. At the same time, in building and promoting the industrial chain, terminal manufacturers, map manufacturers, software manufacturers, telecom operators, information service providers and scientific research institutions have formed the "Transportation Information Industry Alliance", forming close cooperation and establishing industry standards.
Among them, China's dynamic traffic information industry standard is being formulated and improved on the basis of fully drawing lessons from advanced experience and technology at home and abroad, under the guidance of relevant government departments, and in line with advanced and complete standards that meet the characteristics of urban traffic in China.
Through the rapid development of enterprises in the industrial chain, the traffic information service based on SMS /WAP has been commercialized in Beijing, and the domestic dynamic navigation terminal will be fully put into the market this year, laying a solid foundation for the application of intelligent transportation system and traffic service in Beijing Olympic Games.
Second, the national industrial policy.
At present, industrial policies from China to Beijing are strongly supporting the development of vehicle-mounted dynamic navigation system.
2. 1 The state vigorously promotes the navigation industry.
At present, the government of China is also vigorously promoting the development of the navigation industry. The main measures are as follows:
1), the national development and reform commission implemented the special project of "satellite navigation application industrialization", which became an integral part of high-tech industrialization in the tenth five-year plan.
2) The key points of industrialization determined by the National Development and Reform Commission are: one core technology (GNSS compatible machine software and hardware and chip design), two basic products (chipset and receiver motherboard), three composition systems (R&D and production, standardization and information service system), four major application fields (vehicle system, communication system, consumer application and traditional industrial transformation), and five implementation measures (core technology introduction, chipset and motherboard development, and information service system).
3) The breakthrough of "200" was achieved in 2005 (1), and the annual output value of satellite navigation application industry exceeded 1000 billion RMB. (2) The annual demand for receiving boards/machines/equipment for 2)GNSS applications exceeds 6,543,800+100,000 pieces/set.
4) National Space Administration's "Civil Industrialization of Satellite Navigation"
(1) realize market standardization, industrial scale and application popularization;
(2) To lay a foundation for the popularization and application industrialization of "New Generation Navigation" in the civil market, for the annual output value of the industry to exceed 50 billion yuan at the end of the 11th Five-Year Plan, for the annual sales of user equipment to exceed 25 million sets, for the users to receive information services to exceed 32 million, for the export of mass products, and for China to truly become a powerful country in satellite navigation application in the world.
(3) Beidou-1 has made great progress in civil policy and user equipment; Beidou-2 is also under development.
As four major application fields, vehicle dynamic navigation system will undoubtedly be strongly supported by the above industrial policies.
2.2 Beijing strongly supports the car navigation system.
The Beijing Municipal Party Committee and Municipal Government has always regarded solving the traffic problem as one of the most urgent tasks for the sustainable development of the capital city. As the most important ITS demonstration city in China, relevant departments are actively coordinating and constantly promoting the research and construction of ITS demonstration projects, including the Olympic Intelligent Transportation System Planning, the Beijing Integrated Transportation Information Platform Demonstration Project, the Beijing Intelligent Transportation Management System Demonstration Project, the Beijing Parking Guidance System Application Pilot Demonstration Project, and the Beijing Advanced Public Transportation System Demonstration Project.
On the basis of the national ITS framework, Beijing formulated the Beijing ITS System Framework, which is a programmatic document guiding the planning and construction of Beijing ITS system, including major local transportation projects and projects. Beijing ITS framework includes Beijing ITS current situation and demand analysis, Beijing ITS user service, Beijing ITS logical framework, Beijing ITS physical framework and Beijing ITS application system analysis. Among them, Beijing ITS application system analysis has made an overall plan for the projects under construction in Beijing ITS field, and put forward ten application fields of Beijing ITS: traffic management field, electronic non-stop charging field, traffic information service field, safety and emergency rescue management field, passenger transport management field, freight management field, urban public traffic management field, intelligent highway and safe assisted driving field, traffic infrastructure management field and its data management field.
The construction and implementation of these projects will provide a demonstration and foundation for the construction of Beijing road traffic flow dynamic information collection, processing and publishing system. It creates necessary conditions for the construction of vehicle-mounted dynamic navigation system.
Taking Beijing as an example, it is estimated that through 3-5 years' development, the dynamic traffic information service industry will drive the formation of 600,000 navigation terminals, accounting for 1.000% of the total number of cars, forming an annual output value of 2-3 billion; Mobile navigation has 200,000-300,000 sets of software, forming an annual output value of1-200 million yuan; The number of information service users exceeds 1 10,000, exceeding the annual output value of 1 100 million yuan. At the same time, it will promote the development of upstream and downstream enterprises, including navigation electronic maps, telecom operators, chip and software enterprises.
The rapid development of Beijing will also have an impact on other large and medium-sized cities in China, thus promoting the healthy development of the whole industry in China.
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