Summary of this issue
Key recommendations
In November, the Caixin service industry PMI hit a five-month high, expanding significantly
The country is Increase the protection of intellectual property rights, and the future growth is more certain
Market Comments
Market Comments: Do not aggressively chase highs in operation, focus on clear performance growth on dips, and reasonable valuations The wrong product?
Macro perspective: China’s Caixin service industry PMI rose to 53.8 in November, a five-month high
Insurance industry: Margins of liability investment improved, and the sector entered Configuration time point
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 278.60, up 0.02%; copper 49370, down 1.10%; rubber 11175, up 0.86%; PVC index 6500, up 0.78% ; Shanghai Aluminum 13760, down 0.47%; Shanghai Nickel 90900, down 0.66%; Iron ore 487.0, up 2.10%; Coking coal 1330.0, up 1.95%; Coke 2147.5, up 1.95%; Wire rod 3580, up 3.05%; Rebar 3524, rose 3.25%; hot coil 3452, rose 3.38%; PTA index 6248, rose 3.82%; fiberboard 87.50, rose 3.92%; Zheng Chun 2517, rose 4.05%; Brent oil 62.04, rose 0.57%.
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5470, down 0.15%; corn 1886, down 0.21%; palm oil 4402, up 0.27%; cotton 15085, up 0.13%; Zhengmai 2552, flat; sugar 4903, up 0.10% ; Apple 11525, up 2.47%.
Exchange rate: EUR/USD 1.13, up 0.05%; USD/RMB 6.85, up 0.30%; USD/HKD 7.81, up 0.12%.
Key recommendations
1. In November, the Caixin service industry PMI hit a five-month high, with significant expansion
Event: November 2018 announced on December 5 Caixin China's general service industry business activity index (service PMI) recorded 53.8, an increase of 3 percentage points from October and a new high in five months.
Comment: Data show that the business activities of the service industry have expanded significantly, the downward pressure on the economy has significantly eased, the employment situation remains stable, and inflationary pressure has further eased. Affected by the "Double Eleven" promotional activities and other activities, the business activity index of postal express delivery, telecommunications, Internet software and other industries is at 56.0% and above, and the total business volume has achieved rapid growth. In addition, banking, securities, insurance and other financial industries are all above 60.0%, rising to a high and prosperous range. As the real economy intensifies its efforts to "widen credit," and infrastructure construction accelerates efforts to make up for shortcomings, the endogenous growth vitality of the economy is expected to be unleashed, and GDP growth in the fourth quarter is not in danger of stalling.
(Investment consultant Zhong Yanling’s registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613020024)
2. The country is increasing the protection of intellectual property rights, and future growth is highly certain
Event: On December 4, 38 departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly signed the "Memorandum of Cooperation on Joint Punishment of Seriously Untrustworthy Entities in the Field of Intellectual Property (Patents)."
Comments: According to the requirements of the memorandum, relevant serious breaches of trust will not only be recorded in the credit reporting system, but seriously dishonest entities will also face the rejection of applications for the issuance of corporate bonds; restrictions on the establishment of financial institutions; restrictions on the purchase of real estate and state-owned assets There are 33 joint disciplinary measures including property rights transactions. According to the annual report just released by the World Intellectual Property Organization, China ranked first in the world in terms of domestic applications for patents, trademarks, industrial designs and other types of intellectual property rights in 2017, which has strongly promoted the growth of global intellectual property applications. The intensive release of relevant documents by China's administrative and judicial departments also shows that my country's progress in intellectual property protection will be further accelerated. With the gradual transformation of the economic development model, innovative development has become the main force driving the economy, and the future growth of intellectual property rights is highly certain. The leading targets in the sector deserve active attention.
(Investment Consultant Zhong Yanling’s registered investment consultant certificate number: S0260613020024)
Market Comments
1. Market Comments: Do not aggressively pursue highs in operation, and pay attention to lows. Varieties with clear performance growth and reasonable valuations that were wrongly sold
Affected by the overnight general decline in the external market and the plummeting US stocks, Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange simultaneously jumped short and opened lower on Wednesday, and the lower opening range exceeded 1.3%, but Subsequently, the three major indexes rose one after another, almost covering the low opening gap. However, the upward trend was blocked again near the noon closing, and the fluctuations occurred repeatedly throughout the day. As of Tuesday, Shanghai's three consecutive positives have hit a new high since this round of rebound. However, the volume has shrunk significantly. In addition, coupled with the overnight plunge in external markets, the market outlook can only continue to make up for the upward trend in order to achieve a healthy trend. It is recommended to focus on the coordination of volume and energy. If the upward attack of the index is weak, it may continue to adjust and wash the market; if the market chooses to shrink and adjust, then short-term bulls still have long momentum. At present, although there is a gap opened higher on Monday below the Shanghai Stock Index, there is no lack of joint support from short-term moving averages. Overall, there is limited room for downward adjustment. In terms of operation, it is recommended not to aggressively chase highs, but to focus on stocks with clear performance growth and reasonable valuations that were wrongly sold on dips. It is recommended to pay attention to electronics, communications, food and beverages and high-quality technology stocks, and avoid stocks that have experienced excessive gains in the early stage and stocks that compensate for losses. There are risks in the stock market, so investment needs to be cautious.
(Investment consultant Gu Zhixiong registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606611020066)
2. Macroscopic perspective: China’s Caixin service industry PMI rose to 53.8 in November, a five-month high< /p>
Oriental Fortune Network reported on the 5th that the Caixin China General Service Industry Business Activity Index (Service PMI) released on December 5th recorded 53.8, an increase of 3 percentage points from October, a record of five A new high since last month, indicating a significant expansion of business activities in the service industry. The service industry expanded and the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, causing the Caixin China Comprehensive PMI to record 51.9 in November, 1.4 percentage points higher than the 28-month low in October.
(Investment consultant Gu Zhixiong’s registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606611020066)
3. Insurance industry: The margin of liability investment improves, and the sector enters allocation time
From In terms of liability business, new personal insurance premiums continue to recover driven by the protection business, and the cumulative growth rate decline is on a narrowing trend, driving NBV to continue to grow; considering that the NBV base in the third quarter of last year was moderate, it is expected that in the third quarter of this year The growth rate of NBV continued to improve compared with the first half of the year; the growth rate of property and casualty insurance business was stable, and the pressure of price war still existed under the reform of commercial vehicle fares. The cost advantage of large companies became prominent after the implementation of the integration of insurance and banking. From the perspective of investment business, the decline of the CSI 300 narrowed and stabilized in the third quarter, and equity investment expectations improved compared with the second quarter; interest rates stabilized and rebounded in the third quarter, with the 10-year government bond fluctuating around 3.6%. Against the background of overseas interest rate hikes Expectations of falling interest rates have eased, and net investment income may remain stable. From the perspective of profits, the negative impact of investment has eased, and reserves have entered a stage of accelerated release. It is expected that the growth rate of net profit in the third quarter will increase compared with the first half of the year.
(Investment consultant Gu Zhixiong registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606611020066)