I. General situation of China economy
1. China's economic status
At present, the world economic crisis has not changed the trend of rapid economic growth in China. China's future economy is still characterized by high savings, high investment, high capital and high speed, as shown in table 1. The analysis of China's economy mainly includes three parts: export, real estate and domestic demand. These three parts are called the Troika of China, and it is the mainstream trend of China's economy to connect with foreign countries day by day. The development of industry is a process of steady growth, which is closely related to consumption capacity and demand capacity. The compensatory growth characteristics of the industry make it necessary to have the control power to advance and retreat freely when treating an industry, and not to suppress it excessively. However, the change of China's economic growth trajectory will start slowly, and the adjustment mode has obvious characteristics such as demand orientation and industrial deepening. In addition, China's economy will enter a long period of "sub-high-speed economic growth period", and the great changes of various growth modes originally imagined by people are not as rapid as imagined.
2. Pay attention to emerging strategic industries
1) new energy field: key targets include hydropower, nuclear power, wind power generation, solar power generation, biogas power generation, geothermal utilization, clean coal utilization, and new energy vehicles. In addition, major nuclear power projects, large-scale oil and gas fields and coalbed methane development, large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants have also attracted much attention.
2) The field of new materials: focusing on microelectronic and photoelectric materials and devices, new functional materials, high-performance structural materials, nano-materials and devices.
3) Information and communication field: The key focus objects include sensor networks, Internet of Things, integrated circuits, flat panel displays, software and information services, core electronic devices, high-end general-purpose chips and basic software products, new-generation broadband wireless mobile communication networks, VLSI manufacturing equipment and complete sets of technologies.
4) Life sciences: The subjects of concern include transgenic breeding, stem cell research, biomedicine, biological breeding, cultivation of new varieties of genetically modified organisms, innovation of major new drugs, prevention and treatment of major infectious diseases, etc.
Second, the classification and characteristics of new energy sources
The National Committee for the Examination and Approval of Scientific and Technical Terminology approved and published the definition of new energy: renewable energy systematically developed and utilized on the basis of new technologies. Such as nuclear energy, solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, ocean energy, hydrogen energy, etc. Specifically, it includes solar energy, wind energy, biomass energy, geothermal energy, nuclear fusion energy, water energy, ocean energy, energy generated by biofuels and hydrogen derived from renewable energy. So to sum up, two important characteristics of new energy are new technology and renewability.
The classification of new energy in the world can be divided into three categories: traditional biomass energy, large and medium-sized hydropower and new renewable energy. New renewable energy sources include small hydropower, solar energy, wind energy, modern biomass energy, geothermal energy and ocean energy (tidal energy). According to the research and analysis of ICTresearch, the future new energy sources include wave energy, combustible ice, coalbed methane, microorganisms and the fourth generation nuclear energy.
Third, the development status of new energy industry
The International Energy Agency (IEA) studied the international electricity demand from 2000 to 2030. The research shows that the annual average growth rate of total electricity generation from renewable energy will be the fastest. According to the research of the International Energy Agency, in the next 30 years, non-water renewable energy power generation will grow faster than any other fuel power generation, with an annual growth rate of nearly 6%, and its total power generation will increase five times between 2000 and 2030, and it will provide 4.4% of the global total power generation by 2030. ICTresearch thinks that IEA's research is too conservative. By 2030, the electricity generated by renewable energy should account for at least 10% of the world's total electricity, which should be 10 ~ 15 times.
1. China new energy market characteristics
China's wind power resources are mainly in the northeast, northwest and Inner Mongolia, and coal power resources are mainly in Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and northwest Gansu. Hydropower resources are mainly concentrated in southwest China, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guizhou, as well as the two lakes and Guangdong Province. However, the power consumption center is located in the coastal areas, so the production area of China does not match with the power consumption center, which has a certain test for power grid erection and energy utilization.
2. Current situation of new energy market in China
1) Photovoltaic: The short-term downturn in the market can't hide the long-term glory, and the opportunities for localization of photovoltaic accessories have attracted much attention. The photovoltaic industry is experiencing an oversupply caused by the expansion of production capacity and the growth rate of demand, and the whole industrial chain is under the pressure of falling prices and falling profit levels. ICTresearch believes that in the short term, everything from components, batteries, silicon wafers to polysilicon will face the pressure of profit compression. However, in the long run, the decline in terminal prices is conducive to realizing photovoltaic parity online earlier, and ICTresearch maintains the judgment of long-term high prosperity of the industry.
2) Wind power: With the intensification of industry integration, the advantages of leading the industry will become more and more prominent, and we should pay attention to the domestic blue ocean market of wind turbine materials. The downward pressure on the price of the whole industry caused by short-term oversupply will continue. The policy attaches importance to the elevation of the threshold of wind power manufacturing industry and the standardized governance of the industry, which is helpful for the wind power industry to get out of disorderly competition and enhance industry concentration. In the future, the industry will show a strong trend.
3) Nuclear power: the safety risk is huge, waiting for the policy to be clear. Due to the far-reaching impact of nuclear power accidents in Japan, countries have successively introduced policies and plans to gradually retire nuclear power plants; Domestic policies have not changed the current nuclear power construction plan, but the construction progress may slow down and the future approval standards will be stricter.
4) New batteries: The mass production of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets is expected, and attention should be paid to the performance release of battery material suppliers. At present, demonstration operation is the first policy aspect. ICTresearch believes that the support of local governments provides a good policy environment for the operation of new energy vehicles. The parallel charging and replacing mode provides necessary hardware facilities for the operation of new energy vehicles.
Fourth, the detailed analysis of subdivided products.
1. Development history of the world photovoltaic market
Under the situation of energy shortage, energy saving and emission reduction, the excellent properties of solar energy, such as safety, no pollution and unlimited resources, are destined to become the ultimate energy of mankind. Under the guidance of policy support, cost reduction and energy advantage, the photovoltaic industry will develop rapidly for a long time. As shown in figure 1.
2. The current situation of photovoltaic market scale in China and the world.
As shown in Figure 2 and Figure 3, the installed photovoltaic capacity in China will reach 10GW in 20 15 years. This is because the China government attaches great importance to the Japanese earthquake, re-examines the energy structure, and focuses on new energy (photovoltaic). In addition to the traditional requirements of ICTresearch, that is, the price of photovoltaic modules should be reduced in order to maximize the development of photovoltaics within the limited financial subsidies, another factor is power grid construction. This is mainly to solve the problem of long-distance transmission, that is, the construction of power grid (the coverage of power grid should include Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, etc.). ) and the reduction of transmission costs (mainly including breakthroughs in technologies such as EHV transmission and DC transmission). In the future, with the improvement of the national transmission network, it will lay the foundation for the construction of large-scale photovoltaic power plants in northwest China. However, in 20 1 1 year, the photovoltaic industrial chains such as polysilicon, silicon wafers, added value of batteries and added value of components are consolidating at a low level.
3. Main driving factors and game modes of photovoltaic market
On 20 11August1day, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission officially released the unified on-grid tariff for non-competitive photovoltaic projects. NDRC will make timely adjustments according to factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress. As shown in figure 4.
On 2011August 12, the Renewable Energy Committee of China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association released the "China Photovoltaic Power Grid Access Roadmap" in Beijing. According to the analysis of the road map, the following assumptions are made: in 2009, the on-grid photovoltaic price was 1.5 yuan/kWh, and then it decreased by 8% every year; The on-grid price of thermal power will increase by 6% every year. Then by 20 14, the price of industrial and commercial electricity in China will first exceed the on-grid price of photovoltaic power generation and take the lead in realizing "parity access".
4. Current situation of photovoltaic market segmentation products
Photovoltaic inverter is the core power regulating component of photovoltaic system, accounting for 10% ~ 15% of the cost of the whole grid-connected photovoltaic system, with high technical content. At present, the global inverter market is mainly controlled by SMA, with a market share of over 40%. Second-tier manufacturers such as KACO, FRONIUS and Siemens account for about 30% of the global market. At present, domestic PV inverter manufacturers are in the growth stage and have great development potential, but the industry concentration is high and it is difficult to enter.
5. Current situation and analysis of wind power market
From 2006 to 2009, after China's wind power installed capacity doubled for four consecutive years, the newly added wind power installed capacity in 20 10 was18.92 million kilowatts, a record high, as shown in Figure 7. In the next few years, the growth rate of China's wind energy market will decrease, which will lead to a serious overcapacity of wind turbines, and the electricity price subsidy for wind power purchase will also be cancelled. ICTresearch predicts that the speed of wind power construction in China will enter a period of steady growth from 20 12.
6. Current situation of new battery market segmentation products
Since the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles has been carried out for more than two years, the demonstration and promotion has begun to take shape. Up to now, the total number of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles in 25 pilot cities has exceeded 6.5438+million, of which more than 6.5438+million have been purchased by private individuals, and nearly 6.5438+million charging and replacing power stations have been built, with more than 4,500 charging piles. The total mileage of demonstration operation has exceeded 330 million kilometers. However, the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles is arduous and there are still great challenges. It is necessary to strengthen cooperation and make joint progress.
20 1 1 year, the cumulative output of domestic lithium-ion batteries is about 2.2 billion, up 22% year-on-year; The cumulative output of alkaline secondary batteries such as Ni-MH and Ni-Cd is about 580 million, up 20% year-on-year, and the cumulative output of lead-acid batteries is1.200 million KVA, up 9% year-on-year. Judging from the situation in a single month, the growth rate of lithium-ion battery output has gradually declined from a high level; The monthly output growth rate of alkaline secondary batteries such as Ni-MH and Ni-Cd bottomed out. The monthly output growth rate of lead-acid batteries shows a downward trend.
The heavy volume of the power battery market still needs to wait. For the power battery market, which is the most concerned by the market, ICTresearch thinks that the prospect is beyond doubt, but its heavy-duty start-up time should be around 20 13. At present, the development of new energy vehicles is in the stage of improving infrastructure, determining relevant standards and determining business models, and the game and positioning process among relevant interest groups has not yet ended. Therefore, it will take some time for it to really start turning point. For the same vast energy storage market, ICTresearch believes that its development time should be after the large-scale application of power batteries, and it is difficult to bring substantial impact to the industry because of its high cost.
Suggestions on the overall strategy of the industry by verbs (abbreviation of verb)
Faced with such a huge potential market, there are many manufacturers and varieties of new energy products, and the technology is developing rapidly, and the competition will be fierce. Therefore, how to grasp the needs of customers, how to deal with the financial pressure from the international market, how to seek better partners, how to maintain cost leadership, technological leadership and environmental advantages. , are all aspects that we should carefully consider. Only by solving these problems can we lead the new energy industry.