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On February 18, Reuters reported exclusively that Tesla was discussing the cooperation of cobalt-free batteries with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., and the negotiations had reached the final stage, and both parties basically reached the purchase intention.
In this report, Reuters intentionally or unintentionally pointed the cobalt-free battery to the lithium iron phosphate battery. It is reported that Tesla had held a year-long discussion with China manufacturers on this cooperation.
▲ Reuters reported that Tesla is cooperating with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. on cobalt-free batteries.
At that time, Tesla turned to the voice of lithium ferrous phosphate. Tesla, as the world's largest electric vehicle company, the change of its power battery selection is likely to mean the re-emergence of the technical route of lithium ferrous phosphate.
This incident has also stimulated sensitive capital markets. Within two days, BYD, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and other lithium ferrous phosphate related concept stocks rose sharply.
However, this carnival in lithium ferrous phosphate did not last long. On February 2nd1day, the official account of Tesla Giga Shanghai forwarded a vibrato video, saying that "cobalt-free does not mean that it must be lithium ferrous phosphate", which means that there may be other battery products behind the cobalt-free battery. The concept stock of lithium ferrous phosphate, whose share price rose two days ago, fell 2 1.
The storm is not over yet, and Tesla's "cobalt-free battery" project with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is still full of doubts. Is Tesla really using lithium iron phosphate batteries? What do Tesla and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. mean by cobalt-free batteries? Who is the driving force behind lithium ferrous phosphate?
The carnival of lithium ferrous phosphate has also caused many problems about the power battery industry. Is it possible for lithium ferrous phosphate to return to the mainstream? Does lithium ferrous phosphate have a chance to win the competition with ternary lithium batteries in the field of electric passenger cars? Where will this technical route go in the future?
After reviewing the whole incident, this paper combs the "cobalt-free battery" chosen by Tesla and the players, markets and technologies in lithium ferrous phosphate at present, and combs the ten truths behind this lithium battery carnival.
This "carnival in lithium ferrous phosphate" is actually just a kind of self-satisfaction. From the aspects of technology, market and players, lithium ternary is still and will continue to be the mainstream.
First, the carnival of lithium ferrous phosphate triggered by a contract signing.
On February 8, 2020, Reuters released a news article entitled "Exclusive: Tesla will use cobalt-free batteries of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. on cars produced in China".
According to the news, Tesla and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited have entered the final stage of negotiations on cobalt-free batteries. Tesla will use lithium iron phosphate batteries in its product lineup for the first time, so as to minimize the cost during the slowdown of the electric vehicle market in China.
Reuters quoted a person directly involved in the project as saying: "Tesla has been negotiating with China (power battery) manufacturers for more than a year to introduce lithium iron phosphate batteries that are' double digits' cheaper than existing batteries."
▲ Report from Reuters.
According to informed sources, in order to improve the safety and energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is still studying the possibility of combining CTP technology with lithium iron phosphate battery.
This news is directly related to three key topics of today's electric vehicles, namely Tesla, the world's largest electric vehicle company, Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., the world's largest power battery company, and two key technical routes of the power battery industry-lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary.
If the facts are as the news says, then the world's largest electric vehicle company and power battery company will switch from the mainstream ternary lithium battery to lithium iron phosphate battery, which means that the whole industrial chain will turn.
The media in the lithium battery industry shouted that lithium ferrous phosphate would turn over. CTP technology and blade battery technology of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. will lead lithium iron phosphate batteries to launch an impact on ternary lithium batteries. Under the advocacy of the media, a large amount of capital flocked to lithium ferrous phosphate concept stocks.
Two days after the news was sent out, the domestic lithium iron phosphate concept stocks were all red. On February 19, BYD's share price rose by 4. 1%, and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech rose by 2.93%. On February 20th, BYD's share price rose by 10%, and Guo Xuan's hi-tech rose by 3.58%. Shida Shenghua, Zonghe Technology and other lithium iron phosphate battery materials companies also have daily limit.
▲ BYD's share price rose 10% on February 20th.
▲ Guo Xuan Hi-Tech rose by 2.93% in February 19.
But the carnival didn't last long. On February 2nd1day, the official account of Tesla Giga Shanghai forwarded a video of a car commenting on Tik Tok that "Tesla will use lithium iron phosphate battery of Contemporary Ampo Technology Co., Ltd." and replied: "Without cobalt, it does not mean that it must be lithium iron phosphate."
Soon after, Tesla Giga Shanghai deleted the forwarded videos and comments on its homepage, but the wind in his words was keenly captured by the industry. The cobalt-free battery that Tesla cooperated with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. probably refers to other battery products.
On the day Tesla forwarded the video, the wind direction behind the carnival boom of lithium ferrous phosphate changed a little. Share prices of lithium ferrous phosphate concept stocks represented by BYD and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech fluctuated, while the share prices of Shida Shenghua, Zonghe Technology and other materials fell rapidly.
Although Tesla did not explicitly deny the use of lithium iron phosphate batteries, its attitude is very telling. This four-day carnival of lithium ferrous phosphate finally ended in Tesla's ambiguous "clarification".
However, after this carnival, many doubts surfaced. By studying Tesla's layout in the power battery industry, the development of cobalt-free battery technology and the changes in the power battery market, Che Dongxi answered the ten truths behind this carnival in this article.
Second, what is Tesla's "cobalt-free battery"?
1, the truth 1: It is unlikely that Tesla will use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Let's talk about the conclusion first. Whether Tesla will use lithium iron phosphate battery is unlikely from the current situation.
A few days ago, some media said that Tesla will produce this model in the Shanghai factory? The basic version adopts lithium iron phosphate battery scheme, and the long-life version adopts ternary lithium battery scheme.
But from the point of view of technology and cost, this statement may not be true.
First of all, from the perspective of Tesla's own product development history, its four models, Roadster and Model, have all been listed. S, model? X and model? Lithium iron phosphate batteries have never been used, and the power batteries purchased from Panasonic have always been NCA cylindrical ternary lithium batteries. In other words, Tesla itself has no experience in supporting lithium iron phosphate batteries for vehicles.
Secondly, in official website, Jeff Dahn, who is in charge of developing power batteries for Tesla, showed that the battery cathode materials studied by this team are mainly based on the single-phase or multi-phase components of lithium nickel cobalt manganate (Li-Mn-Ni-O) cathode materials and lithium nickel manganate (Li-Mn-O) cathode materials, and the doping variants of these materials after adding other metals such as aluminum and magnesium will also be studied.
▲ Jeff Dahn's team's research scope on cathode materials
Jeff Dagen himself is recognized by the industry as the pioneer and forerunner of ternary lithium battery, because he promoted the industrialization and commercialization of ternary lithium battery.
A few days ago, the team also contributed a battery patent with a life span of 6.5438+0 million miles (about 6.5438+0.6 million kilometers) to Tesla. This patented technology is also based on ternary lithium batteries.
Tesla's own battery research and development team did not even consider the possibility of lithium iron phosphate batteries. On this basis, it is difficult for Tesla's power battery to transform into the technical route of lithium ferrous phosphate.
It is even more reported that Tesla recently reached a cooperation agreement with the global mining giant Glencore to ensure the supply of cobalt ore in the Shanghai factory, thus ensuring the production capacity of the ternary lithium battery in the Shanghai factory (partner).
On the one hand, Tesla actively solves the supply of cobalt ore and ensures the production capacity of ternary lithium battery in Shanghai factory (partner); On the other hand, it is illogical to use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
In addition, it is worth noting that in recent years, there are very few cases of assembling lithium iron phosphate batteries for passenger cars by Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., which means that it is difficult for Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. to ensure that the lithium iron phosphate batteries it provides have been fully verified for passenger cars.
Wang Zidong, director of the National 863 Special Power Battery Testing Center for Electric Vehicles, pointed out in an interview with the media that the verification period of power batteries needs at least three years. If the verification time is insufficient, there must be a certain degree of safety hazard between the vehicle power battery and the vehicle adaptation.
And if Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. conducts 1-2 years of safety verification for Tesla from now on (counting the previous year of negotiation between Tesla and China manufacturers). Then after two years, the energy density of ternary lithium battery is close to 500Wh/kg, and the cost is greatly reduced, so the competitiveness of lithium ferrous phosphate will be weaker.
So from this logic, it is almost impossible for Tesla to replace lithium iron phosphate batteries for its models. Even if it is used, it is likely to be used in commercial vehicles with low requirements on energy density and long verification time for lithium iron phosphate batteries. Tesla has only one semi-trailer that meets this condition.
▲ Tesla Semi semi-trailer
2. Truth 2: The cobalt-free battery that Tesla cooperated with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is probably a lithium nickel manganate battery?
As Tesla Giga's official account in Shanghai attached a comment when shaking audio and video: "No cobalt doesn't mean it must be lithium ferrous phosphate."
From the current technical route, there are many power battery products represented by "cobalt-free batteries", such as lead-acid power batteries, nickel-hydrogen power batteries, lithium manganate power batteries, lithium ferrous phosphate power batteries, "cobalt-free ternary lithium" power batteries, cobalt-free solid-state batteries and so on.
By the method of exclusion, from the market share, lead-acid batteries, nickel-hydrogen batteries and lithium manganate batteries almost withdrew from the historical stage; The application of cobalt-free solid-state batteries is too far away. According to Renault, which currently has a mass production schedule, they will put cobalt-free solid-state batteries into application in 2025.
Even if Tesla is advanced enough, it is unlikely to surpass other manufacturers in the field of power batteries for five years, which is not its strength.
Then the only two items are lithium iron phosphate battery and cobalt-free ternary lithium battery. The former is the inference of the previous question "Tesla's application of lithium iron phosphate battery is untenable". So is the latter a cobalt-free battery that Tesla and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. are discussing?
In order to find out this problem, we need to know what is a "cobalt-free ternary lithium" battery.
Whether it is NCM or NCA ternary lithium battery, cobalt plays a role in stabilizing the layered structure of the material and improving the cycle times and rate performance in its cathode materials.
However, the role of cobalt is not irreplaceable. In July last year, Honeycomb Energy held a press conference, saying that it had completed the research and development of cobalt-free batteries (anode lithium nickel manganese oxide materials). The technical principle is that doping unpaired electron spin elements in the electrode can also improve the reversibility of charge and discharge and the structural stability of the battery.
In the description of honeycomb energy, its cobalt-free battery can reach the same energy density as the current NCM8 1 1 power battery, but the material cost can be reduced by 10%- 15%.
Interestingly, this technology is very close to mass production. Honeycomb Energy said that SOP can be completed in the second quarter of this year, and the time gap between the mass production progress of products in the industry should be small.
Another less noticeable clue is that Tesla's battery R&D team has also begun to study the lithium nickel manganate cathode material, which is the cobalt-free cathode material mentioned above. For Tesla, the adaptation of the new battery is likely to have been completed long ago.
If what Honeycomb Energy said is true, then there is reason to believe that this technology is steadily advancing in Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., which has stronger R&D capabilities and richer technical reserves. The "cobalt-free" battery that Tesla cooperated with Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is probably such a cobalt-free battery.
3. Who is helping lithium iron phosphate battery to come back to life?
Truth 3: Quartet forces entered the market to speculate on lithium iron phosphate batteries?
It is too early to say that lithium iron phosphate battery is dead. The unanimous view of lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery in the industry is that each battery has its own advantages, and different models of batteries will be used as energy storage tools in different models and different scenarios.
For example, in the field of domestic commercial vehicles and special vehicles, the power batteries used by most models are lithium iron phosphate batteries.
According to the data released by China Power Battery Innovation Alliance, in 20 19, the total installed capacity of domestic power batteries was 62.37GWh, and the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries was 38.75GWh, up 26.22% year-on-year, accounting for 62. 13% of the market. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery is 19.98GWh, down by 7.37% year-on-year, and its market share is 32.03%. Lithium iron phosphate still occupies more than 30% of the market.
But if we focus on the field of electric passenger cars, the situation is very different. According to the data of Advanced Technology Research Institute, in 20 19, the domestic market share of ternary lithium batteries in electric passenger cars exceeded 95%, and lithium ferrous phosphate was less than 5%. The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery in passenger car field has decreased from 4GWh in 20 16 years to1.74gwh.
In the general trend, the market share of ternary lithium batteries has increased rapidly, while the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries has declined. The ternary lithium battery has stabilized at the "C" position, and the lithium iron phosphate battery has begun to explore marginal markets such as energy storage, 48V and electric bicycles.
It can be said that the transition from lithium ferrous phosphate to lithium ternary is a natural choice for the market.
However, in the recent wave of advocating the return of lithium ferrous phosphate, it is obvious that some people are speculating on the concept of lithium ferrous phosphate.
The first to bear the brunt is Tesla. According to Reuters's report, the source of "cobalt-free" LFP battery is likely to be close to Tesla, or even Tesla itself.
Tesla's next move is to further reduce costs and improve efficiency to promote the growth of its profitability. Its share price soared from the third quarter of 20 19, precisely because Tesla achieved profitability for two consecutive quarters and maintained a fairly high gross profit margin.
If Tesla announces that it will use low-cost lithium iron phosphate battery at this time, investors have reason to believe that its profitability will be further enhanced, which will help its share price to rise further.
As for the rumor of Shanghai Super Factory, it may be that Tesla will adopt a new concept of "cobalt-free" battery instead of a mature lithium iron phosphate battery. This news release further enhanced Tesla's technical strength.
Another wave of media supporting the "dualism" of ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries is the main push of lithium iron phosphate wave. With the news that Tesla may use lithium iron phosphate battery, the "critical theory" of "lithium iron phosphate is coming back and ternary lithium battery has no future" is further deduced.
Inversion theory is certainly eye-catching, but on the basis of the development of ternary lithium battery industry chain and various mature supporting industries, this view simply cannot stand scrutiny. The ternary lithium battery industry with an output value of hundreds of billions will not collapse because of Tesla's choice.
China Power Battery Innovation Alliance believes that lithium ferrous phosphate and ternary lithium batteries have never been either-or, and each has different application scenarios. The story of "dualism" can only be told to the capital market, and the industry also has its own views on the future of lithium ferrous phosphate and lithium ternary.
Miraculously, the investment market not only accepted the story of "dualism", but even added fuel to the flames. Driven by capital, the concept stocks of lithium iron phosphate batteries such as BYD and Guo Xuan Hi-Tech rose sharply on February 19 and February 20, further creating the illusion that lithium iron phosphate is about to return.
In fact, lithium iron phosphate battery is still lithium iron phosphate battery, but the concept of "cobalt-free battery" is put on it.
Finally, the ambiguity of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also casts a doubt on whether its "cobalt-free" battery cooperated with Tesla is a lithium iron phosphate battery. Perhaps the confidentiality agreement with Tesla limited the disclosure of the specific content of the cooperation, or perhaps the cooperation between the two parties really involved lithium iron phosphate batteries.
However, in this wave of operation, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. is undoubtedly at a disadvantage. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd., which focuses on R&D, can only continue to consolidate its leading position if it realizes industrialization on the leading cutting-edge technology in the industry (which others can't do).
If the cooperation between Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and Tesla involves lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the share is not small, then it will undoubtedly be brought back to the same battlefield with BYD, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and other manufacturers.
Recently, the share price of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. also reflects this point. The company's share price has dropped from the high point 169 yuan to the current 154 yuan, with a drop of nearly 10%.
With the vague concept of Tesla, the advocacy of the media and the promotion of capital, Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. finally set off this carnival in lithium ferrous phosphate.
4. Is ternary lithium battery still mainstream? The market share of lithium ferrous phosphate passenger cars is less than 5%.
After the carnival of lithium ferrous phosphate, the market will still follow the established rules. After all, lithium iron phosphate power battery is difficult to turn over in the field of passenger cars. Contemporary Ampere Technology, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and BYD, which are currently at the head of lithium ferrous phosphate industry, are also continuing to transform into ternary lithium batteries.
But this does not mean that lithium ferrous phosphate will be completely eliminated. With the continuous development of this kind of power battery technology, lithium iron phosphate batteries are opening up new markets. This part will tell four truths about the performance of lithium iron phosphate battery market.
1, Truth 4: In the passenger car power battery market, the share of lithium ferrous phosphate is only 5%.
In the passenger car battery market, today's lithium ferrous phosphate has almost no strength in World War I. ..
According to the data of Advanced Technology Research Institute, the installed capacity of passenger cars in Ferrous lithium phosphate in 20 19 was about 1.74GWh, accounting for less than 5% of the market. This data was calculated on the premise that the subsidy dropped seriously in 20 19 and the power battery in lithium ferrous phosphate picked up slightly.
However, in the process of the evolution of power battery technology, lithium iron phosphate battery was once the "main theme" of the power battery market.
▲2065 438+06-2065 438+09 China lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery development comparison.
During the period of 20 13 -20 16, the ternary lithium technology of domestic power battery industry is still in the development stage, but the technology of lithium ferrous phosphate is close to maturity. During this period, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery increased significantly, reaching 20.33GWh in 20 16 years, accounting for 69% of the market.
However, after 20 16, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has increased year by year, and the progress of ternary lithium battery technology has pushed lithium ferrous phosphate to a dead end.
In 20 17 years, the lithium iron phosphate power battery was squeezed by ternary lithium batteries in the passenger car market, with a total installed capacity of 18.04GWh, accounting for 49.6% of the market. The market share of ternary lithium battery increased rapidly from 27% in 20 16 to 44%, and the total installed capacity was 16.05438+0 GWh.
In 20 18, due to a large number of electric passenger cars shipped, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries was overtaken by ternary lithium batteries, with a total installed capacity of 2 1.57GWh, accounting for 37.9% of the market; The total installed capacity of ternary lithium battery is 30.70GWh, accounting for 53.9% of the market.
By 20 19, the gap between them has further widened. The total installed power of lithium iron phosphate battery is about 19.98GWh, accounting for 32.03% of the market. The total installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries is about 38.75GWh, accounting for 62. 13% of the market.
The lithium iron phosphate battery can achieve such results, behind which is the policy. In 20 16, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued regulations prohibiting the use of ternary lithium batteries in new energy commercial vehicles. Therefore, such vehicles can only be equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries at present.
In 20 19, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries for new energy buses and special purpose vehicles in China was about 18.24GWh, while the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries for passenger cars was only10.74 gwh, accounting for less than 5% of the market.
Such market changes show that lithium iron phosphate batteries are no longer suitable as mainstream batteries for new energy passenger cars.
2. Truth 5: The situation of lithium ferrous phosphate head players has changed to ternary lithium.
In 20 19, the top three lithium iron phosphate power battery companies were Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd., Guo Xuan Hi-Tech and BYD.
According to the data of Advanced Technology Research Institute, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate power batteries of the three companies are 1 1.4GWh, 2.9GWh and 2.8GWh respectively.
In recent years, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. and BYD have been actively deploying ternary lithium batteries, and their installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries is 20.9 1GWh and 7.88GWh, respectively, far exceeding their own shipments in lithium ferrous phosphate.
▲ car power?
In 20 17, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. accounted for about 50% of its own shipments, and BYD started from lithium iron phosphate.
Even always? In Guo Xuan Hi-Tech of lithium ferrous phosphate, its chairman Li Zhen also revealed in an interview with the media that there will be 4GWh ternary lithium battery capacity in the planned 20GWh power battery capacity in the future.
This phenomenon shows that the head players in the lithium iron phosphate battery industry are transforming into ternary lithium batteries.
It can be considered that BYD's "blade battery" is only exerting the residual temperature of lithium iron phosphate battery, and CTP battery technology of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. can also be used for NCM? 8 1 1 ternary lithium battery.
Lithium ferrous phosphate products are gradually marginalized by the product matrix of these head players.
3. Truth 6: The remaining 30% market of lithium ferrous phosphate mainly depends on policies.
In 20 19 years, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was about 19.98GWh, accounting for 32.03% of the market. As we discussed before, lithium iron phosphate battery has been gradually marginalized by the power battery market, so where does this market share of more than 30% come from?
From commercial vehicles and special vehicles.
2065438+ 16124 October, Zhang Xiangmu, then director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the theme summit of "Development and Breakthrough of Power Battery" in committee of 100, China that ternary lithium-ion electric buses are not listed in the Catalogue of Recommended Vehicles for Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles for your consideration at present.
This regulation has continued to this day. Under the impetus of this policy, many new energy special vehicles and commercial vehicles began to use lithium iron phosphate batteries.
There are two main factors behind it: cost and safety. In terms of cost, the cost of lithium iron phosphate battery is lower, and the price per kilowatt hour is about 100-300 yuan lower than that of ternary lithium battery. For commercial vehicles and special vehicles that do not pursue energy density, it is not a good choice to choose lithium iron phosphate battery with lower cost.
In terms of safety, ternary lithium batteries have entered the self-heating state when the temperature is higher than 65℃, while the self-heating temperature in lithium ferrous phosphate generally needs to reach 200℃. At present, the battery thermal management system of new energy commercial vehicles and special vehicles can't ensure that the battery is at a suitable working temperature at all times, so it is more suitable to choose lithium iron phosphate battery with higher thermal runaway temperature.
In addition, most commercial vehicles are self-weight vehicles, and the increased weight of lithium iron phosphate batteries will not increase the proportion of their own weight, and will not excessively affect the endurance performance of vehicles.
4. Truth 7: Are lithium iron phosphate batteries still used in new energy commercial vehicles and special vehicles?
On August 20 19, Che Dongxi made an inventory of new energy commercial vehicles and special vehicles in 323 new car catalogues issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. Everyone has magic.
The statistics of 15 vehicles in this paper (as shown in the above table) include trucks, buses, cleaning vehicles and vehicles in other scenes, and 15 vehicles. 15 vehicles, only maintenance vehicles use NCM ternary lithium battery, and other vehicles use lithium iron phosphate battery, involving automobile manufacturers including Jinlong, Shenlong, BYD, Yutong, Zhongtong and Jianghuai.
On the whole, lithium iron phosphate battery has basically become a "marginal role" in the passenger car market, and the head players in the lithium iron phosphate battery industry have transformed into ternary lithium batteries.
But this does not mean that lithium ferrous phosphate has withdrawn from the historical stage. In the field of commercial vehicles, lithium ferrous phosphate still has a big market. It is understood that in 20 19, the installed capacity of power batteries for new energy buses was 14.73GWh, accounting for 23.62%; The installed capacity of power batteries for new energy special vehicles is 5.4 1GWh, accounting for 8.67%, and most of them are assembled with lithium iron phosphate batteries.
At the same time, electric bicycles, 48V hybrid systems and energy storage devices are also becoming new markets for lithium iron phosphate batteries.
Five, ternary lithium and lithium ferrous phosphate technology PK? Lithium ferrous phosphate has only a cost advantage.
Recently, many voices supporting the return of lithium iron phosphate batteries believe that BYD's "Blade Battery" and the "CTP" battery technology of Contemporary Amp Technology Co., Ltd. make lithium iron phosphate compete with ternary lithium batteries in terms of technical parameters.
This part will mainly answer three truths about the technical strength of lithium ferrous phosphate from the perspectives of technology, cost and development trend.
1, truth 8: lithium ferrous phosphate PK ternary lithium, technically completely beyond.
The answer is no. In the past three years, the main reason why lithium iron phosphate battery lost to ternary lithium battery was that the technical parameters were completely "bursting".
Compare the latest technical parameters of lithium ferrous phosphate and ternary lithium battery;
In terms of energy density, Guo Xuan Hi-Tech recently announced that its lithium iron phosphate battery monomer energy density is close to 200Wh/kg, the system energy density is 150Wh/kg, BYD blade battery monomer energy density exceeds 180Wh/kg, and the system energy density is 140Wh/kg.
The energy density of NCA8 1 1 ternary lithium battery currently used by Tesla exceeds 300Wh/kg, and the energy density of battery pack also exceeds 180Wh/kg.
In terms of cycle times, the cycle times of lithium iron phosphate batteries are usually 2000 -2500; Tesla's battery research team published a paper last year, which showed that the new battery based on NCM cathode material still maintained more than 85% battery capacity after 5000 cycle tests.
In terms of development space, the upper limit of the proven monomer energy density of ternary lithium battery is 500Wh/kg, while the highest energy density of lithium ferrous phosphate is 200Wh/kg, and the rising space is very limited.
In terms of self-heating (after reaching this temperature, the battery material will spontaneously heat up) and thermal runaway temperature (after reaching this temperature, the battery temperature rises sharply and combustion occurs), the self-heating temperature of ternary lithium batteries is generally 65℃, and the self-heating temperature of lithium iron phosphate batteries can reach 500℃ at the highest; The thermal runaway temperature of ternary lithium batteries is generally lower than 200℃, and that of lithium iron phosphate batteries is as high as 800℃.
However, in terms of thermal runaway, with the development of battery thermal management system, the temperature of battery pack is usually controlled within the reasonable working range of 20℃ to 40℃, and the probability of thermal runaway is very small.
In addition, the Institute of Advanced Technology also pointed out that from the point of view of batteries, the temperature rise of cathode materials is usually not the main phenomenon of battery combustion.
When the temperature rises to 130℃, even the SEI (negative passivation layer) of the negative electrode of lithium iron phosphate battery will decompose, and the highly active lithium carbon negative electrode will react violently when exposed to the electrolyte, resulting in the battery being in a high-risk state. At this time, no matter how stable the lithium ferrous phosphate anode is, the battery will enter a state of thermal runaway.
From the aspects of energy density, cycle times and development space, the performance of ternary lithium battery is obviously better than that of lithium iron phosphate battery. The advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in thermal runaway temperature is not obvious. Thanks to a more mature battery management system, the overall thermal stability of ternary lithium batteries is improving. Therefore, from the performance point of view, lithium ferrous phosphate does not exist with the front PK of ternary lithium battery.
2. Truth 9: The cost advantage of lithium ferrous phosphate is difficult to translate into market advantage.
Based on the battery market price in February 20 19, the current price excluding tax for ternary lithium battery system is 0.95 yuan /Wh-10.05 yuan /Wh, and the price excluding tax for lithium iron phosphate battery system is 0.85 yuan /Wh-0.95 yuan/wh.
From the price level, the price of lithium ferrous phosphate per kWh will be cheaper than that of ternary lithium battery 100-300 yuan.
However, for the passenger car market, the endurance performance of the vehicle is put on the table as a competitive capital, and the energy density of the power battery has become one of the core indicators that downstream automobile manufacturers pay attention to.
Except BYD has blade batteries, few car companies will use lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower energy density on the main models. Even if most passenger car companies use it, it will only be used in their own low-end models. For example, BAIC announced that it will use lithium iron phosphate batteries on Sic Bo models.
Judging from the current market structure and consumer acceptance, it is unlikely that the cost advantage of lithium ferrous phosphate will be transformed into market advantage.
3. Truth 10: The use of ternary lithium in passenger cars has become a future trend, and lithium ferrous phosphate has been marginalized.
This question can be answered from both technical and market perspectives.
In terms of technology, ternary lithium batteries will continue to increase energy density, and at the same time, cobalt-free battery technology and quaternary material technology will be adopted to improve the stability of batteries. Combined with battery management system, reliability and high energy density can be realized in the future.
However, the upper limit of energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery is low, so manufacturers will explore higher energy density of the battery from the aspect of materials, and also seek room for improvement from the aspects of battery packaging structure and battery shape to enhance the energy density of the battery system.
In the market, ternary lithium batteries will be more widely used in passenger cars, especially passenger cars with a comprehensive endurance of more than 500 kilometers, and ternary lithium batteries will be fully applied.
Lithium iron phosphate batteries can be used in passenger cars, commercial vehicles and various special vehicles with a comprehensive endurance of less than 500 kilometers. These models generally have low endurance requirements and strict cost control.
At the same time, some analysis reports pointed out that lithium iron phosphate batteries also have good market potential in electric bicycles, 48V micro-mixing, energy storage equipment and other markets.
Therefore, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries may eventually coexist for a long time, with different application scenarios, but ternary lithium batteries will continue to occupy the mainstream position in the field of passenger cars.
Conclusion: The carnival of lithium ferrous phosphate is just a farce.
The ambiguous attitude of Tesla and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. towards cobalt-free batteries has caused lithium iron phosphate batteries to set off a carnival in the domestic market, and people in the capital market, industrial media and battery industry are highly concerned about this matter.
The four driving forces behind this carnival are Tesla, industrial media, relevant capitalists and Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. The first three parties invented the concept, pursued the heat and smashed the capital to make this carnival rise, and the ambiguous attitude of contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. contributed to the incident.
However, according to the results, the cobalt-free battery that Tesla cooperated with contemporary Amperex Technology Co, Ltd. is probably not a lithium iron phosphate battery, but a cobalt-free battery with nickel lithium manganate as the positive electrode. Whether from Tesla's own research results or from the industrial trend in recent years, the lithium nickel manganate battery is very close to mass production.
The so-called counterattack of lithium ferrous phosphate is only a farce after all.
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.