The usual "big in and big out" of agricultural distributors has become the "fast in and fast out" now, with fewer batches and more batches and fewer meals. Before the Spring Festival, the author visited the markets in Guangdong and Hainan, and found that a new feature appeared in the channel in 2009, that is, the basic retailers of agricultural materials basically reduced their inventory to zero, and even if there were a few bottles of products, they would push them to the superior dealers. Why? Because the price reduction of products is visible, whether it is glyphosate, paraquat or other pesticide varieties, the price reduction is unimaginable, and inventory means loss, which is a rare phenomenon in the past few years. In previous years, it opened its doors after the fifth day of the first month, but now it only sells seeds of corn, rice and soybeans sporadically. In March, the weather cleared up, the temperature rose, and the medicine season arrived, so we quickly purchased from our last home. After all, the inventory of the first-class dealers is limited, coupled with the constraints of logistics and other factors, it will be too late to come to the factory for procurement when the price is clear and the overall situation is determined. Therefore, in the process of agricultural products sales in 2009, there will inevitably be periodic demand in short supply and products out of stock.
Second, when the market starts, the prices of agricultural products will rise in stages, with stability as the mainstay throughout the year:
From the second half of 2 0 0 8 to 2 0 0 91October, the price drop of 65438+ pesticide products made agricultural producers overwhelmed and miserable. After the Spring Festival, with the coming of medicine season and the start of domestic market, and the pull of foreign trade export situation, the export of pesticide raw materials made domestic pesticide production enterprises start production one after another, which made the supply of raw materials suddenly tense. In addition, in order to withdraw funds, raw material manufacturers basically completed the process of low-cost clearance before the Spring Festival, and the rebound in the prices of major chemical raw materials after the Spring Festival became the general trend and logical. However, this is only a staged rebound. After entering April, the overall situation of domestic pesticides will tend to be stable, but it is not excluded that pesticides will rebound in stages. However, it is worth noting that the occurrence of rice pests in the second half of 2008 can be said to be minimal, which led to the formation of a large number of pesticide products in many domestic preparation enterprises, which will buffer the staged demand for pesticides in 2009 to some extent.
Third, strengthening the management of the pesticide industry by the state will further accelerate the structural optimization and industry integration of the pesticide industry:
On February 28th, 2009, the Ministry of Agriculture and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued AnnouncementNo. 12 of 2009. 1 158 specifies the content gradient of 47 single pesticide ingredients in different dosage forms, especially for hot pesticide varieties such as glyphosate, which is almost harsh. For registered products with content less than 30%, by 2009, it was 65,438 pieces. This means that the largest herbicide 10% glyphosate aqueous solution in the domestic pesticide market (the domestic market demand is conservatively calculated at 250,000-300,000 tons) will not be produced until the end of the year, and the high-content glyphosate preparation will face unprecedented market growth opportunities. The cancellation of the varieties of glyphosate preparations below 30% will undoubtedly make the domestic pesticide consumption behavior more scientific and environmentally friendly. However, for the consumers of pesticide products, the cost of pesticide use will increase by more than 50% in the short term when the planting benefits of fruit farmers and cotton farmers are generally unsatisfactory or even loss, and the planting enthusiasm decreases. If you switch to imported varieties, the use cost will double. Only by tackling key problems in science and technology and cultivating substitute varieties can glyphosate original drug enterprises change the passive situation in the process of strengthening pesticide management in the country and avoid the waste and loss of market resources and superior brands.
In fact, it is not only glyphosate varieties that have been hit, but also imported fipronil (Ruijinte), which has caused a storm in the field of rice pest control in recent two years, is also facing the situation of being stopped. As one of the main substitute products of highly toxic pesticides such as methamidophos, why did Fipronil encounter the fate of stopping using it so quickly? According to the analysis of insiders, there are three main factors to stop using fipronil: firstly, fipronil is very toxic to bees and aquatic organisms and unfriendly to the environment, which is the fatal shortcoming of fipronil and the biggest reason for experts to ban fipronil; Secondly, fipronil resistance appeared in many places in 2008, and the effect of fipronil was not as good as before; Thirdly, the listing of DuPont Kangkuan in 2008 accelerated the elimination of fipronil.
Dupont's chlorantraniliprole (Kangkuan) was listed in 2008, and its performance is very excellent: its toxicity is very low, it is very friendly to the environment, and its control effect is first-class. Many experts believe that Kangkuan can completely replace Fipronil, which accelerates the pace of stopping Fipronil.
Bayer was hit hard. For many years, fipronil (Regent), as a patented product of Bayer, has enjoyed a unique privilege in the market. After the suspension of trading in the second half of the year, Bayer in Germany is undoubtedly the biggest victim. In Hunan, Hubei, Jiangxi, Anhui, Zhejiang and other provinces, fipronil has become one of the main varieties to control rice leaf roller, Chilo suppressalis and Chilo suppressalis in these main rice producing areas, with annual sales exceeding 1 10,000 tons and sales reaching 1 100 million yuan. It is understood that in addition to Bayer, Bayer's authorized partners, such as Nong Xin, Salonda, Changqing, and Tongji, will also be affected to varying degrees. The suspension of fipronil production also provides a large market space for some environmentally friendly pesticides. It is understood that Dalian Ruize Pesticide Co., Ltd. has developed a new compound based on fipronil, commonly known as butene fipronil, which may become a sales hotspot in 2009.