The positive impact of the new economic normal on my country’s economic development
Currently, China’s economy has entered a new normal. How do you view the new normal? What challenges does my country's economic and social development face under the new normal? What opportunities will come? To understand the new normal of my country's economic development, we must systematically understand the new stage our country's economic development is currently in, the new characteristics it exhibits, and the new reforms it requires.
The current Chinese economy has entered the "new normal", and economic growth has entered a controllable and relatively balanced operating range. Under the combined influence of weak external demand, falling domestic demand, real estate adjustments and deep-seated structural changes, the downward pressure on the economy has intensified.
However, the "new normal" is not only about difficulties, challenges and risks. The new normal has not changed the judgment that my country's development is still in an important strategic opportunity period where much can be accomplished. What has changed is the connotation and meaning of an important strategic opportunity period
Conditions; it has not changed the fundamentals of my country's overall economic development, but has changed the economic development mode and economic structure. Therefore, the "new normal" of China's economy breeds great development opportunities for a rising country to embrace the new economic system
.
First, opportunities for major reforms and adjustments. The 2008 international financial crisis not only exposed the huge structural problems facing the world economy, but also announced the end of China's traditional growth model embedded in the world economic pattern.
High energy consumption and pollution caused by high investment, socioeconomic conflicts caused by income distribution gaps, and insufficient innovation caused by excessive regulation have become stumbling blocks for China to achieve national prosperity, people's prosperity, and national rejuvenation
stone. The people deeply realize that major reforms and major adjustments are the only options to rebuild the cornerstone of China's social and economic development. The formation of this consciousness of "big reform" and "big adjustment" is the biggest gift that the "new normal" brings to the next round of development of the Chinese economy
In the great wave of global structural reform It has given China a good period of opportunity.
Second, big consumption, big market and opportunities to build “big country economic effect”. While China's GDP ranks second in the world, its market share and consumption scale have also increased significantly. China's demand has become the most important determinant of world demand, and the "big country economic effect" has begun to fully emerge. . First, a comprehensive scale effect and scope effect have appeared in the market. The improvement of production efficiency has effectively offset the increase in various costs, so that China's share in the world market has not declined; second, consumption has begun to rise. At this stage, China's consumption scale is still growing at an average annual rate of 13%, and China has begun to shift from "world factory" to "world market". Third, China's "world factory"
has begun to connect with China's "world market". Under the influence of domestic and foreign trade integration, China's economic stability and ability to withstand world economic fluctuations have greatly increased. .
Third, "great depth" and the opportunity to build diversified growth poles. Although by the end of 2014, indicators of China's various industrial structures have marked the beginning of the transformation of China's economy into the post-industrialization stage, the dividends of industrialization have begun to fade
. However, we must see the depth and width of China's economy. That is, although the "Yangtze River Delta", "Pearl River Delta" and "Beijing-Tianjin region" have begun to fully shift to service industry-driven, the industrialization of the vast central and western and northeastern regions still remains.
It is still in the mid-term stage of rapid development. This not only provides effective room for industrial upgrading in the east, but also provides opportunities for accelerated development in the central and western regions. Therefore, the gradient transfer of China's industries has not only greatly slowed down the fading speed of China's industrialization dividends, but also made China's spatial layout more scientific by building diversified growth poles.
Fourth, “big talents” and opportunities to build the second demographic dividend. The arrival of the Lewis turning point and the approach of an aging society mean that China's traditional demographic dividend has begun to fade. However, it must be noted that the current problems of "difficulty in recruiting workers" and "expensive labor" are mainly highlighted in the field of migrant workers. China's employment pattern is characterized by the coexistence of "difficulty in finding employment for college students" and "shortage of migrant workers". The pressure of more than 7 million college students to graduate every year has caused the starting salary of college students to equal the average salary of migrant workers
.
This is precisely the key to China's transformation from a country with a large population to a country with strong human resources. This shows that a large number of highly educated people have prepared a large number of high-quality, low-cost industrial reserves for China's industrial upgrading.
The second demographic dividend centered on college students and human resources began to replace the traditional demographic dividend centered on migrant workers and low-end labor forces.
Fifth, “big innovation” and opportunities to build technological dividends. Carefully sorting out various indicators of China's technological innovation and development, we will find that while the extensive development model has come to an end, China's innovative development model has emerged: First, patent applications have increased significantly; It reached 2.577 million in 2013, with a growth rate of 15.9%, accounting for 32.1% of the world's total, ranking first in the world; second, R&D expenditure exceeded the low
level threshold, reaching 2.09 of GDP in 2014 %, with a growth rate of 12.4%, entering a high-speed, medium-intensity stage; third, the activity of the technology market has increased significantly. In 2013, the technology market transaction volume reached 746.9 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 16%; Fourth, the export of high-tech products has increased significantly, with the total amount reaching 660.3 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 30% of total exports; fifth, the number of scientific and technological papers published abroad in 2013 has reached nearly 300,000, entering the world's scientific and technological papers Ranking among the great powers; Sixth, China has the largest number of scientific and technological researchers in the world. The above parameters show that as long as the scientific and technological system is further reformed and various innovative and entrepreneurial activities are encouraged, China's technological innovation dividends will gradually be realized. "Made in China" began to transform into "Innovation in China", transitioning from labor-intensive manufacturing to knowledge-intensive industries.
Sixth, the “great upgrade” and the opportunity to build an upgraded version of China’s economy. Under the influence of market, technology, manpower and other aspects, China's economy has begun to show the momentum of comprehensive upgrading: First, when the per capita GDP is close to 8,000 US dollars
Consumption began to undergo a substantial upgrade, starting from the past 30 years. In 2016, industrialized consumption, which was dominated by food, clothing, and housing, shifted to post-industrial consumption dominated by high-end manufactured goods and services; secondly, driven by demand, the industry began to shift from manufacturing to manufacturing in a major way. The service industry has shifted from labor-intensive industries to knowledge- and technology-intensive industries. The embryonic form of China's upgraded economy is beginning to emerge.
Seventh, the opportunities of “great opening up” and the global layout of China’s economy. The overall improvement of China's economic strength and the changes in the global economic landscape brought about by the 2008 international financial crisis have given China unprecedented opportunities to carry out great opening up and
global layout. First, China has begun to shift from the "commodity export era" to the more advanced "capital export era". Overseas mergers and acquisitions have advanced by leaps and bounds, with an average growth rate of more than 30%. In 2014, the total foreign investment exceeded 1,000.
billion US dollars; the second is to comprehensively strengthen the sectoral effect of China's opening up through the construction of regional free trade zones; the third is to launch a comprehensive docking of China's space strategy and opening up strategy with the "Belt and Road" as the core, and through the Internet
Interconnection creates China's new international cooperation pattern; fourth, the establishment of international financial institutions such as the BRICS Bank, Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, and Silk Road Fund breaks the pattern of international finance dominated by Europe and the United States. These expansions have effectively expanded China's resource allocation space and profit model, and will surely bring China's development into a new stage.
Of course, to seize the above seven major opportunities and transform various strategic opportunities into real growth and development, this not only requires us to effectively solve various problems and challenges faced by the "new normal", but also We also need to build an institutional system suitable for the next round of economic development on the basis of comprehensively deepening reforms.