Peanut Finance: Tesla will build its own battery factory. What investment opportunities will it bring?

Tesla had no accumulation in battery technology at first, and could only purchase batteries from abroad. Based on consistency, cost, safety and other factors, Panasonic's 18650 cylindrical battery route was initially selected, and the battery management system was independently developed.

Later, in order to continuously meet consumers' requirements for longer cruising range, improve battery space utilization and reduce costs, both parties upgraded the 18650 battery to a 2 1700 battery.

It is expected that Tesla will release a series of new technologies about batteries on "Battery Day". Considering Tesla's pursuit of energy revolution in the field of electric vehicles and energy storage, the technology released this time is expected to focus on reducing costs and improving the energy density and safety of batteries through innovations in battery material chemistry system, electrode structure and battery preparation technology.

The excitement is about to be revealed. What are your expectations for A shares?

First, Tesla plans to set up its own battery factories in the United States, Germany and China in the future.

According to the new news, Tesla battery technology is dry electrode+anode cobalt-containing ultra-high nickel/cobalt-free high nickel multicomponent material+cathode silicon carbon+large cylinder.

Judging from Tesla's recent actions, all recent actions are aimed at getting rid of the dependence on high-priced cobalt and laying out the layout for the future production of high-nickel positive electrodes and silicon-carbon negative electrodes.

Recently, Tesla recently applied for a patent on ternary electrode, and proposed a two-step method to prepare high-purity electrode materials. This electrode material can achieve 4,000 charge and discharge cycles, and the cruising range of electric vehicles can also be increased to 6.5438+0.6 million kilometers. The improvement of cycle life greatly increases the competitive advantage of ternary electrode materials.

Secondly, cobalt-free battery technology will be fully unveiled.

In the long run, it is imperative to steadily reduce the cost of batteries to promote the electrification of cars all over the world. However, the current mainstream battery technology, cobalt raw materials in ternary batteries, is not conducive to the promotion of Tesla's global electrification due to limited global reserves and large price fluctuations. Therefore, low cobalt batteries/cobalt-free batteries have always been Tesla's efforts.

On the one hand, Maxwell, Tesla's supercapacitor and dry electrode technology company, has done a lot of exploration on cobalt-free batteries.

On the other hand, high nickel is also one of the mainstream routes to reduce cobalt, and high nickel and low cobalt is still a major trend at present, and there are media reports that Tesla is purchasing a large number of low-carbon nickel metals from Canadian mining companies.

As a global leader in new energy vehicles, Tesla will announce the latest technological progress of cobalt-free batteries on this battery day, or directly announce the future technical path and production plan of cobalt-free batteries.

The last point is, can the cruising range reach 654.38+0 million miles?

In April last year, Musk announced that it is expected to launch batteries with a service life of more than 654.38 million miles (654.38+0.6 million kilometers) in 2020.

Millions of miles of battery life will be a highlight of "Battery Day", which is longer than the life of a car body, and will open up opportunities for reuse and battery recycling, further reducing costs. Tesla mentioned the million-mile battery last year.

It is worth mentioning that if Tesla's million-mile battery is mass-produced, the service life of Tesla electric vehicles will be at least twice as long as it is now, which means that the life cycle cost of electric vehicles will be lower and the battery residual value will be higher.

According to Tesla's patent, based on the ternary lithium battery, the maximum number of cycles of the battery may be close to 5,000, and the mileage of the corresponding vehicle may reach 6,543.8+0.6 million miles (about 6,543.8+0.6 million kilometers).

Tesla's new electrolyte additive technology will help to improve its cycle life. Electrolyte additives are an important research direction to improve the cycle life and capacity of lithium-ion batteries in the future.

As a key component of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for more than 30% of the cost. Tesla attaches great importance to and hopes to master the power battery technology, ensure the safety of the supply chain through self-built part of production capacity, reduce costs and retain profits.

Tesla is a benchmark in the field of electric vehicles. Tesla battery technology represents the most advanced industry technology, and the high probability is also the future industry trend. In addition, Tesla accounts for 30% of the global electric vehicle market, and its every move will have a huge impact on the technical route and product route of upstream industrial chain companies.

In the early stage of Tesla's development, power battery technology and production experience were insufficient, and outsourcing battery was its only choice; With the expansion of its production and sales scale, self-built part of production capacity is an inevitable choice to ensure the safety of supply chain;

The competition of future power batteries mainly focuses on: product performance+cost. Its self-built batteries need to constantly improve product performance to maintain technological leadership, and at the same time need to be lower in cost than external battery manufacturers.

From the point of view of manufacturing cost control, battery factories in China, Japan and South Korea, especially those in China, are stronger in cost control. It is not excluded that the battery cost of Tesla's self-built battery factory will be higher than that of China manufacturers in the future, and some production capacity will still be outsourced.

Musk visited the German super factory in early September. Musk said that the manufacturing method of electric vehicles and batteries in German factories will be a "revolutionary" change, and it will be equipped with an immersive virtual simulation system.

In addition to cars, Tesla actually has an energy business that has never been known to the outside world.

Tesla integrates the battery and photovoltaic business of electric vehicles and becomes a distributed global power supply company centered on its Department of Energy.

In addition to cars on the road, deploy more energy and energy storage systems in houses and power grids, and manage these distributed systems.

To this end, Tesla launched the software "Autobidder", which is a platform for real-time trading and power control, and can provide power producers, power supply companies and capital partners with the ability to monetize battery assets.

It is reported that Autobidder manages hundreds of megawatt-hours of assets and provides billions of watt-hours of power grid services around the world. Using machine learning, Autobidder can realize the functions of "price prediction, load prediction, power generation prediction, scheduling optimization, intelligent bidding" and so on.

The combination of software and hardware may make Tesla's energy business grow faster than its automobile business. Tesla has applied for a power supplier license in the UK, and has also begun to lay out the battery recycling business.

From the perspective of battery technology, Tesla is committed to improving battery cycle life, long cruising range and reducing costs. As the leader of electric vehicles, the leading technology of batteries released by Battery Day will promote the progress of the industry.

According to the technical conjecture of the battery, the positive electrode, silicon negative electrode, electrolyte additive and battery production process may all change with the existing materials.