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The plummeting of white horse stocks in 2021 will make the bull stock Aimeike in 2020 miserable, even if 10 turn 8, The high gift transfer of 35 yuan has not been able to restore its stock price. Many people can't help but ask, is Aimeike completely dead? Are there any opportunities in the market outlook? We need to deeply study the value of this company and whether its business model has sustained profitability? Is her moat strong enough to support it further?
For Amic, its business model is similar to that of liquor, and it is a relatively simple business! Its positioning of "industry, academia, research and medical research" basically locks it into becoming an upstream provider, firmly grasping the commanding heights of profits. Compared with other medical beauty companies, it is a company purely for women, and its core products are all products designed to make women beautiful. From this point of view, it is very consistent with my stock selection logic (the main business must be outstanding). There are essentially two models for the operation of domestic commercial enterprises, namely, becoming bigger and stronger and becoming stronger and bigger. As far as I am concerned, I prefer to be stronger and bigger. In fact, well-known domestic brands basically follow this approach. Only when the main business is outstanding enough can the enterprise's moat be constantly defended. This is what Amic is doing. I am looking forward to seeing such a medical beauty company lead the domestic medical beauty industry to start, grow and mature!
In 2021, the valuation will be killer (let’s call it that for the time being). Amic’s retracement will be relatively large. An important reason is that her gross profit is so high. Is it sustainable? You know, the gross profit of Kweichow Moutai is not as good as that of Amic. The difference is that the market is optimistic about Kweichow Moutai, but it is not so optimistic about the sub-IPO Amic! Therefore, we need to study first, whether Amic's performance can be maintained? Can high gross profit bring continuous cash flow to it?
First of all, from the perspective of the general business model, the probability of this is very small, unless you commit suicide. As long as the company operates normally and continues to consolidate its channels, as the public accepts it, Amic's profits will continue to flow! This is not unreasonable. According to Mob Research Institute’s research on the post-95s consumer group, it is not difficult to find that when it comes to becoming more beautiful, the post-95s group is significantly higher than other age groups. The key is that once they decide to undergo plastic surgery, their decision-making time will not be long. More than 2 months, this speed is indeed in line with the crisp and crisp style of the post-95s generation who dare to love and hate. According to research, more than 30% of those born after 1995 have plans to have plastic surgery, and 80% like to share their plastic surgery diaries. Therefore, plastic surgery to "beautify" has become more and more recognized by the public. In addition, I specifically consulted a plastic surgeon who specializes in medical aesthetics. The lasting effect of hyaluronic acid is about 6-12 months. This means that once a woman starts to become more beautiful through medical aesthetics, she will have smooth and shiny skin again after she has experienced it. After the skin treatment, as long as she is a normal person, she will never tire of it. In this case, in order to ensure her youth and beauty, they start their own long road to medical beauty. In layman's terms: Medical beauty only has zero and countless times. This is actually in line with human nature! Therefore, as long as Aimeike does not commit suicide and ensures the safety of its products, its profits will continue to flow!
Secondly, among the current domestic hyaluronic acid products, only Amic has received national approval. In at least three years, as the influence and popularity of this product expands further with the launch of Amic, it is possible for profits to grow exponentially. What about 3 years later? Don’t worry, because Amic’s moat is not just about Hi-Ti, several rare products are being developed and put on the market.
Therefore, from the current perspective, Amic’s profit growth is a high probability event! Next, let’s take a look at what powerful moats Amic has made in order to defend profits?
Is the river guarding the city strong?
1 Product Advantages
According to its annual report data, HiTi is a scarce product in the domestic neck wrinkle treatment market. She is currently the only product in the domestic market that has obtained the approval of the National Medical Products Administration. (NMPA) approved Class III medical device. Some research institutions have shown that in the next 2-3 years, no other manufacturers will enter this field. From this perspective, HiTi will continue to provide Aimei customers with a steady stream of cash flow in the next 2-3 years!
2 Intellectual property rights defend the commanding heights of profits
Let’s not talk about how much research and development expenses we invest. Amic has established an industry integrating "production-academy-research-medicine" from the beginning chain, and pays special attention to research and development. This is somewhat similar to Hengrui, the domestic leader in innovative drugs. Although the cost of research and development is high, after the research and development is successful, the barriers brought by patents will be higher. In addition, countries in the medical beauty industry The approval raises the threshold to the extreme, so it will allow it to enjoy the development dividends of the market for a period of time. Fortunately, Amic has done it. Its investment in research and development is much higher than that of other peers, and the results are also visible. HiTi has begun to take shape, and other products have also been launched one after another. The current Amic is forming a " The spiraling logical cycle of industry-academy-research-medicine. According to the research results published in its annual report, it is still good: it has applied for 4 patents and obtained 4 authorizations. It has accumulated 41 patents, including 23 inventions. It has 8 core technologies including tissue bionic fluid, bionic decellularized tissue preparation and multifunctional hemostatic material preparation. These patents bring strong market entry barriers, which will undoubtedly greatly strengthen Aimeike's moat!
3 Channel advantages, control of pricing power
What affects corporate profits, in the final analysis, is the price and quantity of products. Amic's business model of "production-academy-research-medicine" determines its power to control prices. Especially when the domestic medical beauty market is underdeveloped and the industry is still in the growth stage, its pricing power is stronger. . Therefore, as long as there is no problem with product quality, strong marketing channels are the only way to increase profits. In fact, Amic has also done well in this regard. According to its annual report, after years of hard work, Amic has established a sales and service network covering 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions across the country. The complete sales channels have undoubtedly laid a good foundation for Aimeike's sales!
4. Multiple products are in parallel, and medical beauty tracks are blooming everywhere
If the first three major advantages reflect the past achievements of Amic, then, several of Amic’s current models The products under development will open up the space for Aimeike to become a phenomenon! According to the information published in its annual report, Amic is already developing differentiated sodium hyaluronate injections, microsphere-containing injections, botulinum toxin type A, implanted threads, and weight management products. Among these products, 3 We need to pay special attention to:
(2) Botulinum toxin type A. Compared with Tongyan Acupuncture, this product has greater competition. Currently, there are 4 models that have received approval in China. They are Hengli of China, Botox of the United States, Jishi of the United Kingdom, and Letibao of South Korea. They occupy a relatively high market share! There are currently many companies researching botulinum toxin in China. Bloomage Biotech has reached the listing application stage, and Amic is currently in the clinical trial stage. From the perspective of market research, the probability of this product being launched is still relatively high, but the profit is The market may be squeezed, but there is no doubt that Aimeike is also expected to get a share of the pie.
(3) Liraglutide
To be honest, I personally feel that this product is another major killer of Amic.
The reason is very simple. China has a large proportion of obese people. According to data from iiMedia Consulting, the number of obese people in China has exceeded 250 million, and the number of potential people who want to lose weight and become more beautiful may be several times that number. Therefore, China’s weight loss market is very Huge, because there are too many people who want to lose weight and get in shape. You can ask the men, women and children around you, if you were given a slim figure, would you like it? I believe the answer is yes! Therefore, in China, which has a population of 1.4 billion, weight loss is an immeasurable market size!
However, there is currently only one product approved by the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) in China, orlistat with relatively minor side effects. This drug was first launched in New Zealand in 1998, with sales that year reaching 1.46 billion, with sales of $538 million in 2007. It can be seen that no matter which country you are in, losing weight is everyone’s need! In other words, the current domestic weight-loss drug market is in short supply, similar to Tongyan Needle. However, Amic’s liraglutide project has entered the clinical stage and will be used to treat type Ⅱ diabetes as a transitional indication. In the later period, it will continue to carry out obesity treatment. Clinical projects for indications are also expected to enter the market in time to get a share of the pie.
A company needs patents and approvals. First of all, it is already ahead of other domestic non-pure medical beauty companies in terms of administrative licensing. Secondly, its strong research and development capabilities make its product line well-organized. Guarantee the sustainability of corporate growth. Therefore, at present, Amic's moat has basically been formed. As long as its products do not have safety problems, then the rest is only a matter of time.
Performance adds the final spark to the stock price!
For Sanhao Company, the support of performance will always be the backing of the rise in stock price! Currently, Amic's PE (= price per share + earnings per share) is relatively high. With a certain number of shares, the lower the earnings per share, the higher the PE. Recently, Aimeike completed a 10-to-8 high bonus. During the same financial reporting period, the company's net profit remained unchanged, but the total number of shares increased from 1 to 1.8 times, so the earnings per share were diluted accordingly. The valuation (PE) has naturally increased! However, with the improvement of the new round of performance, especially for medical beauty products with such high gross profit, it is a high probability that its earnings per share will increase significantly! Therefore, as long as Amic does not commit suicide (product safety issues), it is a high probability that the performance will continue to increase steadily. It is only a matter of time before the valuation is digested. Moreover, a large wave of corrections after 2021 will fully open up the stock price. Room for improvement!
In view of this, I think as long as there are no problems with the first quarter performance, the market’s concerns about Amic’s performance will go away as its performance is confirmed. Under the high gross profit, as Amic’s channels sinking, performance shows explosive growth or is foreseeable! Therefore, Aimeike has experienced a wave of rights-filling market, and I am optimistic about this!
(The opinions in this article are my reasonable inferences based on reasonable data and represent only my personal opinions. You operate at your own risk)