How else can smartphones innovate? Apple did not give an answer. If it were not for memory and battery problems, Apple fans would not choose to renew the iPhone 13. In fact, it is not just Apple that suffers from lack of innovation. Almost all manufacturers face this problem. Mobile phone manufacturers have already iterated all components such as screens, casings, batteries, cameras, etc. many times. It is very difficult to make major innovations again.
However, with the demand for shipments of more than 300 million smartphones, mobile phone manufacturers will have no way to explain to consumers if they do not innovate.
In the fall of 2021, smartphone manufacturers will unanimously choose folding screen mobile phones as their innovation point.
On September 1, Samsung released the folding screen mobile phone Galaxy Z Fold3.
On December 15, OPPO released its first folding screen mobile phone OPPO Find N.
On December 23, Huawei released its first vertical folding screen mobile phone P50 Pocket.
Honor’s new foldable screen product Magic V will also be officially released in the near future.
Xiaomi’s first foldable screen phone MIX FOLD was released on March 30. Although vivo's new folding screen products have not yet been released, it has applied for a number of folding screen-related patents.
Judging from the above information, except for Apple, the top five mobile phone manufacturers in China's smartphone industry have all launched or are preparing to launch new folding screen products. Folding screen mobile phones seem to have become the "standard" for mobile phone manufacturers. match". However, despite the enthusiastic performance of mobile phone manufacturers, the performance of the market has fluctuated greatly.
According to IDC data, global folding screen mobile phone shipments in 2020 were approximately 1.947 million units, while global smartphone shipments reached 1.292 billion units, and folding screen mobile phone shipments accounted for only 0.15%. , with such a surprisingly low market share, it is difficult to say how good folding screen mobile phones are. This phenomenon will improve in the Q3 quarter of 2021. A report released by the research organization DSCC shows that global shipments of foldable screen mobile phones in the third quarter of 2021 were 2.6 million units, a month-on-month increase of 215%.
It has been more than 2 years since the launch of the world's first foldable screen mobile phone. Consumers are no strangers to foldable screen mobile phones. Recently, topics related to "folding screen mobile phones" have been frequently trending on social networks. According to the list, foldable screen phones seem to be becoming popular.
What is missing from the popularity of folding screens?
"If you don't accept life and death, just do it." Lei Jun directly shouted to his friends at the Redmi Note 7 new machine launch conference on January 11, 2019. Entering 2021, big bosses such as Lei Jun and Zhao Ming have reduced the competition in the "war of words", and mobile phone manufacturers no longer openly compete with their friends, which has made the mobile phone circle much less lively.
Huawei, Honor, Xiaomi, OPPO, Samsung and other mobile phone manufacturers have successively launched folding screen mobile phones, which has actually played an educational role in the market and allowed more consumers to have an impression of folding screen mobile phones. This will have a positive impact on the future of folding screen phones. The popularity of screen mobile phones has paved the way. However, in the global smartphone market of more than 1.2 billion units, foldable screen phones are still far from becoming popular. What is missing?
(1) Lower price. The market's attitude towards new technologies is closely related to the selling price, such as 5G mobile phones. China Mobile once predicted that the price of the first batch of 5G mobile phones will exceed 8,000 yuan. By the time a large number of 5G phones are launched in 2019, the price of mobile phones will still be high, and the price once reached nearly 5,000 yuan, which is similar to that of the iPhone. For the whole of 2019, domestic 5G mobile phone shipments were only 13.769 million units.
By 2021, the price of 5G mobile phones will plummet. Data from the Academy of Information and Communications Technology shows that the average selling price of 5G mobile phones dropped from 3,733 yuan in January to 2,851 yuan in September. From January to November 2021, 5G mobile phone shipments reached 239 million units, a year-on-year increase of 65.3%, accounting for 75.3% of mobile phone shipments in the same period.
Obviously, consumers are not willing to pay for the high premium of new technologies. If they want to be popularized on a large scale, they must have a price that is close to the people.
The current folding screen mobile phones are still on the high side. OPPO Find N starts at 7,699 yuan, Huawei P50 Pocket starts at 8,988 yuan, Xiaomi MIX FOLD starts at 9,999 yuan, and Samsung Galaxy Z Flip3 starts at 7,599 yuan. Yuan.
(2) Joining of Apple. The new phenomenon in the smartphone industry in recent years is that Apple is no longer the leader in new technologies in the mobile phone industry, such as curved screens, rear four cameras + front dual cameras, high refresh screens, 5G, etc. Apple seems to be becoming conservative. . But it is undeniable that Apple has unparalleled influence in the smartphone industry. If Apple also uses this new technology, it means that this technology is not a "pseudo-innovation". For example, previous mobile phone manufacturers have The pop-up camera design has gradually been abandoned by mobile phone manufacturers.
In the puzzle of folding screen mobile phones, Apple is currently missing. If Apple also enters the folding screen mobile phone market, more and more users will inevitably choose to buy folding screens. MacRumors has reported that Apple may launch a mass-produced folding screen iPhone model as early as 2023, but the probability of 2024 is higher. Renderings of Apple’s first foldable phone, the iPhone Flip, are also circulating online.
In folding screen mobile phones, we have seen the shadow of face recognition mobile phones and 5G mobile phones. Only relying on a large number of manufacturers to swarm in is only the first step. The price that is close to the people and the entry of Apple will make it more popular. This type of mobile phone is reaching its climax.
It must be done
How many people will buy a mobile phone worth nearly 8,000 yuan? Mobile phone manufacturers are not unsure. In fact, even Apple does not dare to be too aggressive in the price of mobile phones. The starting price of the iPhone model, Apple’s high selling price strategy will be ineffective. The starting price of this year’s new iPhone 13 series is only 5,199 yuan, which is Apple’s lowest price in recent years.
Pricing is an art. The sales volume of a mobile phone priced at nearly 8,000 yuan is destined not to be too high. But why do mobile phone manufacturers still launch folding screen mobile phones even though they know this situation? Guo Jing’s Internet circle believes that there are two main factors:
First, impact on the high-end market. Huawei, Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO obviously do not want to completely lose the high-end market to Apple. With the demand for nearly 300 million smartphones in China, many users will also want to buy Huami OV’s top flagship phone. What to buy? Reflecting the top flagship machine? Folding screen mobile phones are a good solution. Folding screen mobile phones can prove the strength of mobile phone manufacturers in the high-end market. For this reason, mobile phone manufacturers must make folding screen mobile phones.
If 5,000 yuan is a threshold, then 8,000 yuan is a threshold. Mobile phone manufacturers can use this to impact the high-end market. Only by going high-end can mobile phone manufacturers have the opportunity to reap the dividends of brand premiums.
Even Xiaomi is tearing off the "cost-effectiveness" label and going high-end. A few days ago, Lei Jun said on social networks that "Xiaomi's high-end mobile phones have officially begun to benchmark against Apple and learn from Apple." Although this sentence refers to Xiaomi's upcoming Mi 12, it also reflects Xiaomi's determination to go high-end. . Xiaomi Group's third quarter 2021 financial report shows that the average selling price (ASP) of Xiaomi smartphones is 1,090.5 yuan each. A long way from Apple.
Second, use folding screen mobile phones to enhance the brand’s influence. Whether it is Xiaomi, vivo, or OPPO, they do not want the outside world to regard it as an "assembly factory" that assembles screens, processors, batteries, casings, etc. This will make mobile phone manufacturers appear to have no technical content. In fact, smart phones There are many technologies involved in mobile phones, and it is not as simple as outsiders think.
In recent years, mobile phone manufacturers have continued to flaunt their technical strength, such as the number of patents, the number of specific processes, etc., hoping to let the outside world see their technological side. Folding screens are a great test of the technology of mobile phone manufacturers. strength.
The launch of foldable screen mobile phones has indirectly increased the brand influence of mobile phone manufacturers. In this way, mobile phone manufacturers can remain invincible even in the competition among the top five mobile phone manufacturers.
Third, verify the development trend of the next generation of mobile phones through folding screen mobile phones. When Apple's iPhone Waterdrop screen and other design forms, but Liu Haiping did prove the popular trend at the time.
No one can predict the future, not just Apple, but also other mobile phone manufacturers. Faced with reality, mobile phone manufacturers can only verify future trends step by step through the market. Folding screen mobile phones are one of the verification methods. As for whether foldable screen mobile phones will be popular, the premise is that they must be based on this track. If the product has not been launched, if foldable screen mobile phones become popular in the future, it will start later than its competitors.
As the upstream and downstream supply chains of smartphones mature, the innovation of mobile phone manufacturers has long been beyond their own control. In the final analysis, it still depends on what the current market is like, as well as supply chain manufacturers and component manufacturers. Technology upgrades. The smartphone industry may have entered an era of "slow" innovation.