As follows:
Everything in nature has a process of emergence, growth, maturity and decline. By analyzing a large number of invention patents, Achshuler found that the evolution of technical system, like the evolution of biological system, conforms to the evolution law of S curve. S curve describes the complete life cycle of a technical system according to time, so it can also be regarded as a prediction curve of the maturity of a technical system.
The evolution of a technological system goes through four stages: infancy, growth, maturity and decline, and each stage will present different characteristics. As shown in figure 1, the horizontal axis represents time and the vertical axis represents important performance parameters of the technical system. For example, the speed and reliability of a car are important performance parameters, and the performance parameters show an S-shaped curve with the continuation of time.
TRIZ theory describes the characteristics of technical system in each stage from four aspects: performance parameters, number of inventions, level of inventions and economic profit, so as to help people effectively understand and judge the stage of a product or industry, and then formulate effective product strategies and enterprise development strategies.
When a new requirement appears and makes sense, then a new technical system will be born. From the moment the new system was born, it entered the first stage-infancy. At this stage, the components of the system are determined, the system structure and components are modified, and even their interactions and their interactions with the super system are adjusted.
Because the current system can not meet the needs of society, it is difficult for people to grasp its future, and it is risky. Only a few people with unique vision can invest, which has low efficiency and poor reliability. Some systems died even before reaching the first stage.
The characteristics of the first stage: the main indicators grow slowly, and the level of invention patents is high, but the number of patents is small and the economic benefits are negative. The main sign of the first stage: the technical system has not yet entered the market or only occupies a small market share, and its survival is seriously restricted.
At the end of the first stage, the technical system almost reached the level of entering the market and tried to enter the market. During this period, the system seems to be in an unstable equilibrium state. The advantages of the system push it to the market, but at the same time it is hindered by its own defects, the resistance of the previous generation system, social habits and other factors.
This stage is the transition of the system from the first stage to the second stage. The main problem is how to get out of this stage in order to promote and lead the market as soon as possible. The conclusion of the first stage: firstly, it is required to significantly improve the ideal degree; Secondly, we should focus on identifying and eliminating the "weaknesses" that prevent the system from entering the market.