On November 29, the COVID-19 antigen testing sector rose 2% at the opening, rose more than 8% in the afternoon, and closed up 7.5%, surpassing the real estate sector by 7.17% to top the list of gains. The concept stocks in this sector collectively went red, with Novozymes hitting the daily limit at the close, Rejing Biotech and Oriental Biotech rising by more than 10%, and many concept companies such as Yahuilong, Wantai Biotech, Jiu'an Medical, Livzon Group, and Jidan Biotech rising by more than 10%. 5%.
Judging from the data, the rebound in the COVID-19 antigen testing sector has already begun on October 12. In about a month, the new coronavirus antigen test concept index (8841559) rose from 1607.14 points to yesterday's highest point of 2232.93 points, an increase of 38.9%. During the same period, the new coronavirus pneumonia test concept index (8841315) also rose from a lowest of 1167.01 points to 1543.44 points, an increase of 38.9%. 32.26%. Not only the testing sector, but also the CSI Biomedical Index (930726), which includes stocks related to COVID-19 testing, diagnosis, and treatment concepts, rose 8.79% in 60 days.
Market opinion believes that four documents including the "Implementation Measures for Nucleic Acid Testing for the Prevention and Control of the New Coronavirus Epidemic" on November 21 have standardized new application scenarios for antigen testing. According to the reporter's review, many listed companies have also recently issued the latest announcements on the progress of COVID-19 antigen testing, or responded to relevant business issues on investor communication platforms. When market attention and stock prices heat up, some people begin to be wary of whether this is a short-term market sentiment or a long-term market prospect? Among the concept stocks in the same sector, how many companies have actually launched business, and how many are still at the conceptual level?
The antigen concept is making a comeback
From the end of 2021 to the beginning of 2022, the new crown testing concept sector experienced a wave of sharp rises and falls, and then fluctuated downwards.
On November 21, 2022, the Comprehensive Team of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council issued the "Implementation Measures for Nucleic Acid Testing for the Prevention and Control of the New Coronavirus Epidemic" and "Delimitation and Control of New Coronavirus Epidemic Risk Areas" Plan", "Guidelines for Home Isolation Medical Observation of the COVID-19 Epidemic", and "Guidelines for Home Health Monitoring of the COVID-19 Epidemic".
Shortly after the document was released, many securities firms expressed their optimism about structural opportunities in the direction of epidemic prevention and control, including cold and antipyretic and analgesic drugs, COVID-19 specific drugs, COVID-19 vaccines, antigen testing, etc. Investors also They flock to listed companies with related concepts to either confirm the authenticity of their business or confirm their performance.
According to incomplete statistics from reporters, there have been as many as 2,585 questions containing the keyword "antigen" on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange's Interactive Platform and Shanghai Stock Exchange's E-interaction since November 21. Various concept companies are interacting The pace of responses on the platform has also improved significantly, and many companies have proactively mentioned that their products have passed certification and the convenience of antigen testing.
For example, Rejing Bio stated on the interactive platform that after the company's products are certified by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, the new crown antigen detection products can be sold in the United States and countries and regions that recognize the U.S. FDA EUA certification; Huaren Pharmaceutical stated that the company's new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) antigen detection kit has obtained EU CE certification, but has not yet obtained relevant certification authorization from the US FDA. It is currently accelerating product registration and listing; Wantai Biotech stated that the company independently developed and produced The new coronavirus (2019-nCoV) antigen detection kit (colloidal gold method) has been approved for marketing in China in March 2022. The test results can be obtained in 15 minutes, which is convenient and fast; Lepu Pharmaceuticals said that the company’s new coronavirus The antigen detection kit can be used for self-testing of COVID-19 antigen at home. It is simple, convenient and fast to operate, and the results can be obtained immediately within 15 minutes.
Not only that, in the nine days since November 21, there have been as many announcements issued by listed companies on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange including registration, CE certification, sales authorization, etc. for the new crown antigen detection kit. 25, announcement that self-test products have been registered in Russia
Some companies also said that they have business, but their performance has not yet been reflected. For example, although Mingde Biotechnology (002932.SZ) stated that the company has a home-use version of the COVID-19 antigen detection kit, the company's COVID-19 antigen detection kit is greatly affected by domestic/foreign epidemics and local government epidemic prevention policies. Domestic and foreign demand in the second and third quarters of this year are relatively high. Quarterly decline. Youningwei also said that the new coronavirus antigen product launched by the company is still in the sales promotion stage.
Performance test under market prospects
The upstream of the antigen industry chain mainly includes antigens and antibodies, NC membranes, sampling swabs, pipette droppers, test strips, etc., while the midstream and downstream mainly include antigen detection. Detection reagents. Many institutions have expressed their optimism about the prospects of the antigen testing market.
Zhongtai Securities believes that if domestic antigen self-test kits are officially released, according to grassroots research, the current factory price of domestic new crown antigen self-test kits is about 1.5 US dollars. The frequency of use shall refer to overseas policies and assume the lowest frequency. Twice a month, based on a total population of 1.4 billion, and with reference to the central bank’s latest USD/RMB exchange rate of 7, the domestic COVID-19 antigen self-test kit market is expected to reach 28 billion yuan in a single month. Taking into account the habit of Chinese residents and enterprises to reserve, the monthly demand for purchasing COVID-19 antigen testing products is 56 billion yuan, and the annual demand will reach 600 billion yuan.
Sinolink Securities also stated that it is optimistic about the structural opportunities in the direction of epidemic prevention and control, including cold and antipyretic and analgesic drugs, new crown specific drugs, new crown vaccines, antigen testing, etc. It is recommended to pay attention to related product research and development, Massive progress. We are optimistic that the performance of companies affected by the epidemic in the early stage will continue to recover.
Founder Securities stated that with clear domestic usage scenarios and repeated overseas epidemics, the demand for antigen testing is expected to pick up. The establishment of an "antigen + nucleic acid" system will build a solid barrier for domestic epidemic prevention. Guosen Pharmaceutical believes that the overall antigen testing sector has surged and is paying attention to the release of demand for antigen testing under the precise epidemic situation.
Guolian Securities also mentioned that according to policies such as prevention and control implementation measures and risk zone delineation plans, combined with the situation in some domestic epidemic areas, new crown antigen detection reagents may become an important supplementary tool for epidemic prevention, corresponding to professional and non- The professional scene space is 11.2 to 26 billion yuan and 15 billion yuan. There is still seasonal demand for COVID-19 antigen products in overseas regions, and new foreign access qualifications have been added in some scenarios, which is expected to contribute to orders during the year.
According to statistics from CITIC Securities, there are dozens of listed companies involved in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the antigen industry chain. As market competition becomes increasingly fierce, the profit margins of COVID-19 testing are gradually compressed. Behind the surge in concept stocks, is the company's performance "passing the test"?
Take Novozyme, which saw a 20% increase yesterday, as an example. From 2019 to 2021 and the first three quarters of this year, the company’s revenue was 268 million yuan, 1.564 billion yuan, 1.87 billion yuan and 2.305 billion yuan respectively. , net profits attributable to parent companies were 26 million yuan, 822 million yuan, 678 million yuan and 750 million yuan respectively. However, by 2022, the company's gross profit margin in the first three quarters fell 14 percentage points year-on-year to 72.8%, and the net profit margin fell 10.2 percentage points year-on-year to 32.5%; in the third quarter, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company was 136 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.25%; Net profit was 122 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.73%.
Another example is Huashengchang. The 2022 third quarter report shows that the company’s main operating income is 467 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.38%; the net profit attributable to the parent company is 95.9276 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.62%; non-net profit after deducting is 87.460 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.75%; in the third quarter of 2022, the company's single-quarter main operating income was 147 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.48%; the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.5928 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 22.82%.
*ST Kehua’s 2022 third quarter report performance decline was even more significant. The company’s main operating income was 1.579 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 57.63%; the net profit attributable to the parent company was 36.8512 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.95%; excluding non-net The profit was 34.2406 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.27%; in the third quarter of 2022, the company's single-quarter main operating income was 676 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 49.05%; the single-quarter net profit attributable to the parent company was -9.5798 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 103.83%; single-quarter Non-net profit after deduction was -10.5413 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 104.2%. Related reports
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