It seems that the TPP negotiations aimed at China have made progress again today, and the discussion on the direction of the China market has exploded.
As the United States and Australia have made progress in intellectual property rights and biopharmaceuticals, the ministers involved in the negotiations have a positive attitude towards further breakthroughs. The negotiation was originally scheduled for only two days, but it has been extended to five days, and it is likely to be further extended. There seems to be a posture of not stopping until an agreement is reached.
The crux of TPP: automobile trade and patent protection of new drugs
The reason for the postponement of the meeting is that the negotiations on automobile trade and new drug patents are deadlocked. Among them, the automobile problem is very important to Japan. Japanese car dealers, led by Toyota, rely on sales to the American market, and Japan hopes to have flexible space in purchasing auto parts. Foreign media quoted news that the United States and Japan may reach a dispute settlement mechanism including fines on the automobile issue negotiated by TPP. The mechanism will put pressure on Japan to open its market to American cars, and correspondingly reduce the tariffs on Japanese cars exported to the United States.
In terms of new drug patents, six Pacific trading partners are resisting the rules promoted by the United States-protecting biopharmaceutical patents for eight years. Informed sources revealed to Reuters that the six countries insisted on a short protection period-five years. A spokesperson for the Office of the US Trade Representative said that the United States has not yet made a formal proposal on biomedicine, but the trans-Pacific partners "continue to work hard to create solutions to reach an agreement." Drug monopoly period is a sensitive political issue. Because this means that if cheaper alternatives take longer to enter the market, these countries need to face higher medical costs.
However, with the signs of compromise in automobile industry and patent protection of new drugs, the United States and Australia have made new progress in intellectual property and biopharmaceuticals today, and the seemingly difficult TPP is gradually approaching reality.
This time it was China's turn to be isolated. Why is there no China in TPP?
In contrast, WTO pursues tariff reduction and TPP pursues free trade. What does free trade include? Including zero tariffs, including the free flow of goods and services, all economic supervision systems should have unified standards. Subdivision areas include freedom of trade and services, free currency exchange, fair tax system, privatization of state-owned enterprises, protection of labor rights and interests, protection of intellectual property rights, protection of environmental resources and freedom of information. To put it bluntly, all kinds of thresholds, manipulations and subsidies are prohibited, but these conditions and trade norms are far from being met in China at present.
It is a conspiracy theory to say that all actions of the United States are directed against China. However, at a time when China has begun to make great strides in reform, it seems that it is difficult for China to hold such a "hot" negotiation on TPP.
Theoretically and according to the rules of TPP, any country can join TPP, except China. In the words of a TPP official, "TPP is a club that only China is forbidden to enter." Of course, TPP's refusal to join China will not be a blunt procedural refusal, but a "green barrier" to keep China out. China just doesn't meet the requirements anyway.
What is the difficulty for China to join the TPP?
The first is the obstacle of state-owned enterprises. TPP advocates canceling the trade terms of policy support, financial subsidies and other welfare benefits for state-owned enterprises. State-owned enterprises should disclose their financial status, operating results, corporate governance structure and government-related information together with private enterprises, and establish a fair and reasonable dispute resolution mechanism in accordance with relevant laws and regulations and suspected violations.
The state-owned enterprises in China are quite large. The Ministry of Finance has published data, 20 104. 1 trillion. The total assets of state-owned enterprises in China are nearly twice the GDP, and the GDP of China in the same year is 58 trillion. The state-owned enterprises in the United States are very small, accounting for only 5% of the US GDP. There are only more than 20 smaller companies (that is, central enterprises) at the federal level in the United States, while there are as many as 1 12 central enterprises in China, all of which are giants. Among the top 500 enterprises in the world, Sinopec, PetroChina and State Grid advanced into the top ten. Therefore, once it is opened on an equal footing according to the terms, China will inevitably suffer.
Moreover, there are many other obstacles for China to join the TPP agreement. Environmental protection, labor rights and intellectual property rights are all of high standards. Among them, environmental protection and trade protection are green barriers. TPP advocates putting forward high standards in biodiversity and trade, multilateral environmental conventions, different fields of environmental protection, and marine fishing. 20 15 the implementation of the new environmental protection law in China is known as the "strictest" environmental protection law in history, and the person in charge of the enterprise can be arrested. Recently, there has been a sky-high fine of1580,000 yuan, which has promoted environmental protection in China, but we should see that these efforts are still limited.
The challenge of labor rights and interests is not small, blue barriers in trade protection. The labor trade rules put forward by the United States and Japan pay attention to the wages and environmental conditions of workers in commodity production, emphasizing the value concern of workers and the humanistic concern of enterprises for the environment and consumers. Although the wages of Japanese workers are rising in recent years, and the labor cost is increasing, it is still difficult to change the relatively low labor price, the working environment and working hours are not guaranteed, the protection of workers' rights and interests is still far from that of the United States and China, and the absence of labor organizations in China.
The purpose of the United States?
Through TPP negotiations, the United States can balance the China-ASEAN FTA (Free Trade Agreement), weaken the influence of China's economy in the region, and ensure its geopolitical, economic and security interests in East Asia. Once the negotiations are reached, the United States will formulate new rules on intellectual property rights and labor standards. On the other hand, because the free trade zone is open to the outside world and restricted to the outside world, while the trade barriers among member countries are reduced, it will pose higher barriers to the economies outside the zone, thus producing a trade diversion effect. The fundamental strategic goal of the United States to actively promote TPP is to maintain and expand its own resource map, rebuild its credit system, and continue to maintain the hegemonic position of the American superpower.
Some people think that free trade is one of the core values of the United States, so it is logical for the United States to promote international free trade. Originally, the WTO assumed some functions, but at present, the WTO is deadlocked and declining. Once an agreement is reached, the WTO will exist in name only.
China's Present Situation and Choice?
TPP-related member countries have been negotiating and discussing common interests, resulting in very slow progress (which may continue to be delayed). Although TPP is aimed at the open market of member countries, Adam Smith has always emphasized in The Wealth of Nations that the open market will benefit from tax reduction. TPP is a fragrant bun that claims zero tariffs, but it is a transaction between countries after all, involving culture, tradition and macro-control (in fact, every country wants to get more benefits and let others get less). But after all, there are great benefits in it, so once it is established, it will definitely reduce the demand of other countries for our export products.
Once the external demand is reduced, it will be a great challenge for China, which is called the workshop of the world, and the development of China will inevitably be restricted by it. China was excluded from the TPP, and China's exports declined, making its economy even more depressed.
But China also has countermeasures. TPP is not something that China must join. Many terms of TPP are higher than national sovereignty, and there are lawsuits to be decided by international arbitration institutions and courts, and these institutions are in the hands of the United States. If China joins the TPP, China will lose a lot.
Agreements such as TPP still represent the interests of big countries in essence. Small countries have no right to speak in the agreement, let alone whether they can reach an agreement in the face of many difficulties and interests. For a long time after the signing of the agreement, small countries became the targets of exploitation by big countries. For China, the terms of TPP are contrary to China's national policy. If you want to agree, you can only change your national policy or bow your head, which was possible 40 years ago. Now China has chips in his hand, and there are many choices.
What China needs to do now is to sign free trade agreements with neighboring countries, do a good job in the Belt and Road Initiative, win over the Russian Federation and the European Union, and concentrate on its own path. There is no need to be afraid of TPP. China has become the locomotive of world economic growth, and now everyone wants to establish economic and trade ties with China. As long as the reform is strong enough and the pace is firm enough, the United States will even further strengthen the determination and speed of China's reform.
Finally, I quote a global comment, that is, China people need to observe the progress of TPP negotiations with confidence and evaluate the relationship between accelerating the promotion of the Asia-Pacific Free Trade Area and joining the TPP with a calm balance of China's trade interests. Our attention to this issue must avoid geopoliticization.
Therefore, whether TPP can be signed or not may have an impact on the pros and cons of China, which may be inaccurate for Americans. The leader of WTO is also developed countries such as the United States, and China later turned around and entered. Today, China has a higher ability to control the uncertainty of the world trade situation, and the role of signing contracts under the city no longer seems to belong to us.
The Ministry of Commerce said it was open to TPP.
According to the website of the Ministry of Commerce, on May 5th, 12, the economic and trade ministers of the United States and other countries 12 issued a joint statement, announcing the conclusion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) negotiations that lasted for more than five years. All economies have expressed concern.
Gao Feng, spokesman of the Ministry of Commerce, said in response to a reporter's question that the agreement is one of the important free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. China is open to the system construction that conforms to the rules of the World Trade Organization and is conducive to promoting economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It is hoped that this agreement and other free trade arrangements in the region will promote each other and contribute to trade, investment and economic development in the Asia-Pacific region.
According to Japan's Yonhap News Agency, on the morning of the 5th local time, 12 negotiating countries of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) reached a basic agreement at a ministerial meeting held in Atlanta, Georgia, USA, agreeing to conduct free trade and standardization in a wide range of fields such as investment and intellectual property rights. A huge economic circle accounting for 40% of the world will emerge as the times require.
Japan may benefit from expanding the export of industrial products such as automobiles and lowering the price of imported food. However, with the establishment of a new zero-tariff import framework for rice and the reduction of tariffs on beef and pork, Japan may be hit in the agricultural field. In order to minimize the impact, the government will begin to introduce measures to enhance agricultural strength.
TPP negotiations began in March 20 10, and Japan joined in July 20 13. Negotiate for the elimination of tariffs on all products in principle and conclude "the highest standard and the most progressive trade agreement in history" (President Obama's words). TPP covers areas that have never been covered by trade agreements so far, such as labor and environmental protection, preferential restrictions on state-owned enterprises and so on.
The Council of Ministers opened on September 30th for two days. Due to the difficulty in making progress in the fields of biopharmaceuticals and dairy products, the agenda of the meeting was extended.
Once the TPP reaches a substantive agreement, some analysts point out that this customs union will definitely have a huge trade discrimination and trade diversion effect on China. The Asia-Pacific region plays an important role in China's foreign trade, and China's exports to the United States and other East Asian countries account for more than half of China's total foreign trade exports. The United States, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN are all China's top ten trading partners, but there are no bilateral free trade agreements among China, the United States, China and Japan, and China and South Korea. In addition, from the perspective of trade structure, China has obvious competitive relations with Japan, South Korea and ASEAN in export. With the entry of Japanese and other APEC members, the trade diversion effect on China will further increase, and TPP will occupy China's export market, which will have a negative impact on China's economy.
Many viewpoints in the United States believe that TPP provides a third way for Sino-US relations: with the help of rules, it can not only ensure the long-term advantage of the United States over China, but also maintain the long-term growth and stability of China, and it is the best choice for the United States. Zhang Jianping, director of the International Cooperation Office of the Institute of Foreign Economic Research of the National Development and Reform Commission, believes that it is difficult for China to join in the short term, because the United States has indicated that if China wants to join as a latecomer, it must conduct one-on-one bilateral negotiations with all members of the TPP and obtain the approval of the other party. If it wants to conduct bilateral negotiations with the United States and Japan, it will take a long time. In addition, in the medium and long term, the United States will definitely ask us to sign a bilateral BIT agreement between China and the United States first. Finally, it depends on whether China's new round of reform and opening-up measures are consistent with the new rules of trade and investment advocated by it, and to what extent we will recognize many rules behind the border if the text agreement of TPP is issued in the future. All these factors will determine whether we participate in TPP or not.
Many parties in the United States oppose the TPP agreement.
Critics believe that the agreement will allow more jobs and business opportunities to be transferred abroad because American companies have been seeking to take advantage of low labor costs in emerging markets.
Democrats and trade unions led by the American Federation of Labor and the Industrial Labor Organization believe that TPP will hurt American workers because American companies have more freedom in transferring jobs overseas. Critics want more details about the negotiations, because TPP negotiations have been going on behind the scenes in secret, and they are waiting for the disclosure of specific terms.
Ford Motor Company responded quickly after the signing of the TPP agreement and suggested that the US Congress veto the TPP trade agreement, which failed to solve the problem of exchange rate manipulation.
TPP is also a hot topic of discussion in the US election.
* * * Trump, the party's popular candidate, opposes TPP. He once said, "TPP is an attack on American companies. It can't stop Japan from manipulating the exchange rate. This is a bad agreement. "
Democratic presidential candidate bernie sanders said, "Wall Street and big companies have won again. We should prevent multinational companies from making sacrifices in pursuit of profits. "