At present, the world economy is undergoing some important changes. The most prominent one is that the United States has stepped out of the shadow of the "new economy" and entered a new round of economic growth; The Japanese economy benefited from China's strong economic growth and began to recover in the second half of 2003. After the European Union's monetary integration in 2000, the economy also began to grow rapidly. Experts predict that the annual growth rate of the world economy will reach more than 3.5% in 2005 and 2006. In the medium and long term, the world economic development will present four major trends:
1, the rapid development of knowledge economy has changed the world economic structure, and developed countries have greater advantages in the new round of competition through continuous innovation and upgrading of technical standards. At present, the new technological revolution brought by microelectronics and information technology has promoted the combination of different industries, promoted the internal adjustment of traditional industries and the rapid development of emerging industries, and played an important role in promoting the adjustment of global industrial structure. In the new century, the developed countries represented by the United States, the European Union and Japan, as leaders of the new technological revolution, have become the core strength of their competition and the source of profit growth by constantly creating and promulgating the latest technical standards for industrial products, and have obtained excess profits in the new round of world economic growth. According to the data, 80% of American economic growth from 65438 to 0990 came from the contribution of science and technology, and it reached more than 90% in 2003. The scientific and technological contribution rate of Japan's economic growth has also reached 87%; The EU has reached 82%; At present, the contribution rate of science and technology to the economic growth of developing countries is less than 30%. The comparison of vertical and horizontal development data shows that the contribution rate of knowledge to world economic growth will be further improved.
2. It is characterized by promoting global free trade and regional economic cooperation, and has deepened the process of economic globalization and regional economic integration at a deeper level and in a wider scope. First, trade liberalization has developed in depth. Since 1980s, the scale of global trade has nearly tripled, reaching 7.3 trillion US dollars in 2003. Generally speaking, the traditional barriers to trade protection in various countries are gradually weakening, and new changes have taken place in trade rules. Second, the scope of economic integration has been further expanded. From the EU, NAFTA, ASEAN to the new Australian Free Trade Area, there are more than 40 integrated regional economic organizations in the world, including 100 countries that are applying to join. Third, the field of regional economic cooperation has been further deepened. From the cooperation of capital, technology and labor services to the establishment of the same market for goods and capital, from the joint exploitation of mineral resources to the cooperative development of science and technology. Especially in the European Union, from the establishment of coal and steel customs union in 1960s to the present monetary and financial integration, regional cooperation has shifted from economic cooperation to political cooperation.
3. The number and scale of transnational corporations have increased rapidly, and mutual mergers and investments have been strengthened, which has become the leading force to promote world economic growth. The number of multinational companies in the world, especially in developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, increased from more than 20,000 in 1995 to 63,000 in 2003, with total assets of 14 trillion dollars. In 2003, the sales of Wal-Mart retail group in the United States reached more than $654.38+04 billion, exceeding the gross domestic product of the Philippines. GM's sales are $50 billion more than South Africa's GDP. These multinational companies have 450,000 subsidiaries all over the world, forming a huge global production and sales system. Their business activities account for 40% of world production, 60% of trade, 70% of patent and technology transfer, and 90% of international direct investment. At the same time, the trend of strong alliance or alliance between multinational companies is increasing. In 2000, the global M&A amount of multinational enterprises reached US$ 3.37 trillion. Although it has slowed down in recent years, it has reached more than US$10.5 trillion every year. M&A and expansion among multinational corporations have promoted the further upgrading of their own technology and capital-intensive industries in developed countries, the pace of transferring labor and resource-intensive industries to developing countries will be further accelerated, and the contribution rate of economic activities of multinational corporations to world economic growth will be further improved.
4. The scale of the international financial market is further expanded, and the global financial market, especially the foreign exchange market, fluctuates obviously, brewing a regional financial crisis. The large-scale flow of capital around the world has promoted the development of financial globalization. According to the data, the total market value of global stock prices now exceeds 35 trillion US dollars, surpassing the world GDP for the first time. The average daily trading volume of the global foreign exchange market reached 2 trillion US dollars. In the late 1970s, after the disintegration of the Bretton Woods system based on the US dollar, in order to maintain its global dominance, the United States allowed the exchange rate of the US dollar to fluctuate greatly, which led to hundreds of billions of "hot money" speculation with the US dollar as the settlement unit around the world, which caused the current international foreign exchange market to fluctuate greatly. The expanding speculation of international hot money has brought unprecedented risks to the world economy, especially to some unhealthy countries, and a new round of regional financial crisis is brewing.
Second, China's economic development trend and policy orientation
In the next few decades, China's economy will continue to grow at a high speed, further completing the process of population urbanization and industrial modernization, but the economic growth rate will gradually decrease. Generally speaking, due to the influence of factors such as large population and few resources, China's economic development and policy orientation in the future will present the following characteristics:
1. The endogenous driving force of economic growth has gradually increased, and the proactive fiscal policy has gradually faded out. Monetary policy will become the main means of macro-control. After more than 20 years of development, China has initially established a socialist market economy, cultivated a relatively mature factor market, and further strengthened its independent market demand and independent growth. First, from the perspective of investment, with the further expansion of foreign capital and private investment, the scale of state public investment will gradually shrink. In the total social investment of nearly 2 trillion yuan in 2003, foreign investment and private investment accounted for 80% of the total social investment of 1.6 trillion yuan, while in 1.995, foreign investment and private investment only accounted for about 35% of the total social investment. Second, from the perspective of import and export ratio, imports have increased substantially. Especially in recent years, the import of raw materials and high-tech equipment has greatly increased. By the first quarter of this year, import and export had reached a basic balance, with imports reaching 124 1 billion dollars. Third, from the perspective of consumption, commodities such as houses and automobiles have become the leading force to expand residents' consumption demand. Under the action of consumer credit and other measures, the consumption demand of urban and rural residents will further increase and become a heavy vehicle supporting economic growth. In the future economic growth, with the further development of market mechanism, land use policy, active fiscal policy and direct administrative intervention will gradually withdraw from the tools to stimulate and control effective social demand, and interest rate-based monetary policy will become the main tool to regulate the macro-economy.
2. With the further scarcity of energy and raw materials, the industrial structure adjustment policy will be comprehensively strengthened, and "new industrialization" will become the only way for future development. Large population and few resources are two main problems that affect the economic development of China today. With the rapid economic growth in China, the resource bottleneck of economic development is further highlighted. First, there is a further shortage of energy. In particular, there is a serious shortage of oil. At present, one third of China's oil needs to be imported from abroad. Experts predict that the proportion of oil imports will reach four fifths in 2020, and the impact of oil on China's economic development will be further highlighted. For example, not long ago, the price of international crude oil futures market rose sharply, reaching the sky-high price of $47.53 per barrel on August 18. Experts estimate that China will pay an extra $8.8 billion this year, which will reduce the domestic economic growth rate from the expected 9.8% to 9%. Second, there is a further shortage of raw materials. In the process of industrialization, China's real estate, automobile, steel, cement, petrochemical and other industries will expand rapidly, requiring a large number of raw materials such as iron ore, rubber and coal. At present, most of China's raw material resources are insufficient per capita, especially iron ore and other metal mineral resources need to be imported in large quantities. Last year, iron ore imports alone exceeded 654.38 billion tons. Faced with the basic national conditions of a large population and few resources, it can be predicted that China will further strengthen the strategic adjustment of economic and industrial structure, transform traditional industries through electronic information technology, develop high-tech industries, strive to eliminate backward technologies and products, and embark on a new road of industrialization with high scientific and technological content, good economic benefits, low resource consumption, less environmental pollution and full play to the advantages of human resources.
3. The process of population urbanization and economic regionalization has been further accelerated, and various policies for coordinating urban and rural development and regional development will be implemented one by one. The rapid development of economy, especially the rapid development of industry, has promoted the process of population urbanization and economic regionalization. In terms of urbanization, in 2003, China's urbanization was less than 40%, but industrialization was 50%, and urbanization obviously lagged behind industrialization; In terms of regional economic development, at present, China's coastal coastline has formed three major economic zones: Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Bohai Rim. The three major economic zones account for 70% of the country's gross national product, 40% of its population and 60% of its tax revenue. From a macro point of view, the lagging urbanization hinders the expansion and upgrading of domestic demand, and the imbalance of regional economy will further widen the development gap between the eastern, central and western regions, both of which will have a negative impact on the development of national economy. It can be predicted that in the aspect of urbanization, the relevant policy barriers such as hukou will be further eliminated, the corresponding social security system will be gradually established, and the process of population urbanization in China will be further accelerated. In terms of regional economic development, with the development of the western region and the implementation of the strategy of revitalizing the northeast, the economies of these areas began to take off. It is expected that in the near future, the "depressed" areas in central China will also be supported by national policies.
4. Population aging and employment pressure are intertwined, so it is urgent to coordinate economic and social development and establish a universal social security system. China's total population still ranks first in the world, reaching 65.438+0.3 billion at present, and will reach 65.438+0.4 billion in 2065.438+00, with a peak of 65.438+0.6 billion around 2030. First, the process of population aging has been further accelerated. At the end of 2003, the population over 65 years old in China was 65.438+0.2 billion, accounting for 654.38+0/2 of the elderly population in Asia, and the aging rate reached 9.3%, which exceeded the aging standard of 6% and entered an aging society. It is predicted that the aging rate in China will reach 13.2% in 2065, 438+00% in 2020, 16.5% and 20% in 2030. Due to the weakening of the family pension security function, the pension problem of these people will become a major social problem. Second, the employment pressure has further increased. At present, the registered unemployment rate in cities and towns in China is 4.7%, which does not include the invisible unemployed population in rural areas. Experts predict that the actual number of unemployed people has reached 15% at this stage. In the future, China will increase its labor force by 300 million, and it is also a big problem to solve the employment problem of these people.