It is difficult to break through the traditional technical route, and the new growth of battery energy density can only be achieved by new technology. The endurance of 1 kilometers will be a symbol, which will break people's doubts and hesitation and bring new market fission.
Wenwen BT Finance
New energy vehicles are the well-deserved focus of the market in 22 and 221.
Whether it's the new technology of BYD and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited to extend the battery life, or the frequent accidents of Tesla, or Huawei's announcement of smart driving cars and official announcements of Internet companies such as Xiaomi and 36 to enter the track.
new energy vehicles have come to our life circle with unprecedented acceleration. However, when it comes to use, most consumers still have concerns-it is too cold to power off quickly, charging is too troublesome, battery life is not enough, and long-distance travel is afraid to drive.
the battery, the core component of the new energy vehicle, is really the core that determines the expansion and popularization speed of the electric vehicle market.
at what stage has the power battery technology developed? When will the 1-kilometer battery be mass-produced? Where will the hydrogen energy battery and hybrid technology go in the future?
In this regard, BT Finance exclusively connected with Dr. Mei, a senior analyst in the automotive industry, and had a long talk with a related person close to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, trying to bring you first-hand scientific and technological information!
according to Dr. mei, the current development route of battery technology has gone through the process from pursuing battery life, to pursuing safety, and then to pursuing battery life again.
Lithium iron phosphate battery and ternary lithium battery have always been two mainstream technical routes, among which BYD started from Ferrous lithium phosphate. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited does Ferrous lithium phosphate and ternary lithium technology at the same time.
in the pursuit of battery life in the first stage, the market pays more attention to ternary lithium batteries, because relatively simple breakthroughs can be achieved in energy density and battery life. From the trip of ternary lithium battery 532 to ternary lithium battery 811, the improvement of energy density made most of the top-equipped electric vehicles in this period achieve a battery life of more than 5 kilometers.
high energy density and high stability and safety are often regarded as the problem of "you can't have your cake and eat it" in the field of vehicle power batteries. With the increasing proportion of nickel in ternary batteries, the thermal stability of batteries has also deteriorated. Two years ago, spontaneous combustion accidents of electric vehicles such as Weilai and Tesla occurred frequently, which was caused by improper integrated circuit technology of battery packs, on the other hand, it was also related to the instability of high nickel batteries.
this is also an important reason why the power battery has started the second stage-the pursuit of safety, and the market has once again returned to lithium iron phosphate batteries. BYD's blade battery technology, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's CTP technology, etc., change the battery technology, improve the comprehensive energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery, and make the power battery reach the endurance level of more than 6 kilometers again through different technologies.
after all, the improvement of energy density brought by this stage is achieved through technology rather than technological breakthrough. The space for improving energy density by technological means is limited by technology, and the space for continuous improvement in the future is limited. The problem that lithium iron phosphate battery loses power too quickly at low temperature has also become an obstacle to the promotion of new energy vehicles. The market demand for long battery life cannot be met by this means.
Now the direction of the market has changed again. When the direction of the ternary lithium battery technology route encounters security risks and the lithium iron phosphate battery technology also encounters technical bottlenecks, it is urgent to find a new technical route.
At the presentation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's 22 performance on May 17th, Zeng Yuqun, chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, said: "The cobalt-free and rare metal-free batteries being developed by the company are not lithium iron phosphate batteries." And stressed that "please don't think that the battery is only ternary and Ferrous lithium phosphate, we are developing power and energy storage batteries for new chemical systems." "In addition to the existing mass production system, the company also has rich battery technology reserves." And admitted that "the competitiveness of our ternary and lithium iron batteries has been recognized by the market at present, and the new system batteries being laid out are believed to be very competitive."
Dr. Mei told BT Finance that the new direction of major battery manufacturers' technical research is quite different from the previous way of improving energy density. Although the endurance standard of 1 kilometers may often only have the actual endurance of about 6 kilometers in winter use, 1 kilometers is like a phased signal, which will dispel many consumers' concerns about the endurance of electric vehicles. From the market point of view, it is possible to put into mass production as soon as possible, including:
the sponge silicon negative battery of Guangzhou Automobile Group, with an energy density of over 28Wh/Kg and a cruising range of over 1km.
weilai's semi-solid battery claims that its energy density reaches 36Wh/kg and its cruising range exceeds 1 km.
SAIC Zhiji's "lithium-doped silicon technology" battery has an energy density as high as 3Wh/kg and supports a battery life close to 1km.
Dr. Mei said: "Next year, in 222, we will witness the mass production of such cars."
At present, new energy vehicles account for only 5.4% of the total sales of fuel vehicles, and the 1-kilometer endurance mass production will accelerate the opening of the market, and new energy vehicles will enter a brand-new stage of rapid development.
As for the pure solid-state battery, according to Dr. Mei, once the battery changes from liquid state to solid state, the energy density of the battery will greatly increase, thus greatly improving the battery life. But on the other hand, in solid-state batteries, the energy transmission efficiency is lower than that in liquid state, and the energy release speed is slower, which can't meet the demand of automobile use. This is also one of the difficulties and pain points to realize the landing of solid-state battery technology at present, and it may take 4-5 years to break through the technical constraints.
compared with the glory of lithium batteries, the hybrid technology that BYD and Toyota once paid attention to, and the hydrogen fuel cell technology that once stood in the air, are now left out in the cold.
Not long ago, BYD launched a new generation of Song and Qin models with super hybrid technology, with low fuel consumption and smoothness as their selling points. Great Wall, Chery, Guangzhou Automobile, etc. are also laid out in the mixed field.
Regarding hybrid technology, Dr. Mei believes that this technology is a transition after all, a temporary solution when the market is facing the lack of endurance, and it is also a supplement to the market. But when it comes to long-term development, hybrid technology will not be the mainstream direction.
another relatively silent technical route is hydrogen fuel cells. In 219, policies related to hydrogen energy and fuel cells were intensively introduced, which attracted market attention. As time went by, apart from the farce of "Nanyang hydrogen energy vehicles can run with water", hydrogen energy vehicles seemed to be getting louder and louder in the market, which disappointed consumers and investors who had high hopes for them. Tesla CEO Musk once bluntly said that hydrogen fuel cells are "incredibly stupid".
in March, 221, official website, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, obtained the application information of Hongqi H5 hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. The maximum dynamic speed of this fuel cell vehicle is 16km/h, the acceleration time from to 1 km/h is less than 1s, and the driving range is more than 45km.
On the same day that the red flag hydrogen energy vehicle declaration map was exposed, Tesla CEO Musk posted on Twitter, saying that fuel cells should be called "fool sells", which is a stupid choice for cars, even for rockets, but at least it is not absurd.
what is the prospect of hydrogen energy technology? A person close to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited made an analysis to BT Finance: with the support of the state, hydrogen fuel cells will have certain applications in commercial vehicles. However, from the perspective of technical level, infrastructure completeness, safety, cost and energy conversion efficiency, it is still far from being widely used in passenger cars. Dr. Mei also holds the same view that hydrogen fuel cells are indeed reasonable and appropriate in the application fields such as buses and trucks.
When talking about Musk's "stupid" evaluation, Dr. Mei thinks: Looking at the future from the present, many things seem stupid, but only the future can prove whether all this is valuable. Twenty years ago, new energy electric vehicles were also considered untrustworthy, but now they have become the world's knowledge.
in view of the application and development of hydrogen energy, Dr. Mei said that the so-called clean energy problem needs to consider the whole process of energy preparation. If coal is used to generate electricity and then hydrogen is prepared by electrolysis of water, then hydrogen energy will only be "clean" on the surface. Only when the cost of producing hydrogen from solar energy, hydropower and wind energy is lower than the cost of rechargeable batteries can the large-scale use of hydrogen energy be possible and meaningful.
with the further development of technology and the increasing production scale of new energy vehicles, the new energy battery industry is constantly evolving.
According to a person close to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited, "At present, the power battery industry in China is at the leading level in the world, both in terms of production capacity and technical level. In terms of production capacity, GGII data shows that in 22, the market share of power battery enterprises in China ranks first in the world, and among the top 1 enterprises with installed capacity, China enterprises occupy six seats. According to SNE Research, since 217, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited's power battery usage has ranked first in the world for four consecutive years. "
Dr. Mei thinks that China's battery technology has been upgraded from the catch-up mode two or three years ago to the tripartite confrontation among China, Japan and South Korea.
At present, Tesla and BYD, the two giants of new energy vehicles, have the ability to produce their own batteries. Among them, BYD started with battery technology. Needless to say, Tesla also built its own super battery factory.
As the core of new energy vehicles, the cost of batteries accounts for more than 4% of the whole vehicle. When new energy vehicles began to become the world's knowledge, many traditional vehicle manufacturers, such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, and General Motors, accelerated the process of the new four modernizations by acquiring shares and battery manufacturers.
what does it mean for battery manufacturers to invade the upstream of the industrial chain?
Dr. Mei agrees with an industry insider: "For automobile brands with an annual output of less than 1, vehicles, it is most appropriate to purchase batteries directly from battery manufacturers; Automobile brands with an annual output of 1,-3, units are suitable for the supply of their own batteries through joint ventures; For automakers with an annual output of more than 3,, self-production is relatively more cost-effective. " In 22, Volkswagen announced the acquisition of 26.47% of the total share capital of Guoxuan Hi-Tech, becoming the largest shareholder of the company. Then, Mercedes-Benz shares in Funeng Technology, holding about 3% of the shares in Funeng Technology. German cars have invested in battery manufacturers in China.
In response to this trend, people close to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited responded with confidence, bluntly saying: "The technology, talents and experience accumulated in the R&D and production of power batteries are very different from those in the R&D and manufacturing of whole vehicles." "Of course, in this process, the OEM will also make various attempts, including the possibility of building its own power battery factory. We don't contradict or worry, and do our own thing well. The electric vehicle industry is a long-term development." At the investment briefing held on May 17th, Chairman Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited also said: "We believe in the advantages brought by specialized division of labor."
From this point of view, the competitive advantage and technological advantage of head battery manufacturers have been completely established and will occupy an advantageous position for a long time. As Dr. Mei said, "The ambition of vehicle manufacturers poses no threat to mainstream battery manufacturers. Unless some vehicle manufacturers successfully bet on the next-generation battery technology route to achieve overtaking in corners, technological progress and catch-up will exist for a long time. "
but in contrast, we may guess that some relatively small battery manufacturers may face acquisition and annexation, similar to Volkswagen's acquisition of Guoxuan.
new energy vehicles with thousands of kilometers of batteries will be mass-produced and listed next year, and intelligent driving technology will also come to us. The technological revolution urges the industry to move towards rapid upgrading and expansion.
the pattern of new energy vehicles in 222 will be greatly changed!
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